Investor Presentation 3 May 2007 CEO Presentation Key messages - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 3 May 2007 CEO Presentation Key messages - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 3 May 2007 CEO Presentation Key messages Organic growth strategy continues to pay off Income EUR 1,873m, up 8% excl. contribution from International Moscow bank (IMB). (EUR 1,754 in the first quarter 2006)
CEO Presentation
3
- Organic growth strategy continues to pay off
- Income EUR 1,873m, up 8% excl. contribution from International Moscow bank (IMB). (EUR 1,754 in the first quarter
2006)
- Operating profit EUR 895m, up 6% excl. IMB last year (EUR 853m)
- Costs up 6% - investing for future growth
- Strong performance in strategic growth areas
- Number of Gold customers increased 8%
- Consumer and SME lending up 16% and 14% respectively
- Markets revenues on all-time-high in Q1
- Net inflow of EUR 1.2bn in Nordic Private Banking.
- Revenues up 38% and operating profit doubled in Poland & Baltics
- Performance in line with financial targets
- Gap between revenue and cost increase of 1.2 percentage points. On track for full year target of 3-4 percentage gap
- Risk-adjusted profit up 11% to EUR 576m in Q1
- Streamlined organisation and operating model to support growth targets
- Separation of responsibility for customer relations, products and services
- Will improve operational efficiency, free up time for increase sales and improve time to market of new products
- New vision and values to support the organic growth strategy
Key messages
4
Strong growth mainly within Private Banking and Institutional clients Increased selling of Markets products to SME’s Strong revenues with FX, fixed income and structured products
191 201 214 222 199 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 207 180 229 242 194 50 100 150 200 250 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 14 15 16 16 15 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Total lending
146 149 158 163 144 25 50 75 100 125 150 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Consumer lending AuM Up 16% Compensating for margin pressure Strong growth within all prioritised areas Up 16% Non- collateralised consumer lending up 22% Increased lending to Gold customers
Strong performance in strategic growth areas
Markets result
*Figures restated for removal of administrative mandate
5
Operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 8% when excluding IMB 2006
- Reported up 6%
- Net interest income up 8%
- Volume growth largely compensating for pressure on
lending margins
- Commission income up 6%
- Lending related commissions up 14%
- Card commission up 9%
- Saving related income up 6%
- Net gains up 4% from record level in
Q1 2006
Q1oQ4
- Stable revenues
- Commission and net gains losses
down mainly for seasonal reasons
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares 1,754 1,734 1,898 1,873 1,780
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
*
6
7% 22%
– of which non collateralised lending
4% 14%
– SME lending
4% 8%
– CIB lending excl. Markets
0% 12% Deposits, total
28% 14% 9% 16% 14%
16%
YoY 8%
– CIB deposits excl. Markets
0%
– SME deposits
1% 5% 2%
4%
Q1oQ4
– Household deposits – Consumer lending* – Mortgage lending
Lending, total
Robust volume growth continues
* Retail consumer lending (collateralised + non-collateralised consumer lending)
7
- 10
8 Treasury
- 7
30 Other, net
- 2
77 Total
- 9
- 47
Margin driven
28
- 75
21 65
86
YoY 8
- Deposit margins
- 17
4 20
24
Q1oQ4
- Lending margins
- Deposit volumes
- Lending volumes
Volume driven
Change in net interest income
EURm
8
Cost/income ratio
- Unchanged at 53%
- Strong growth in revenues
- Investments for future growth
64 60 56 53 53 63 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan- Mar 07 %
*
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
9
Gap between income and cost growth
Percentage points
- Gap of 1.2 percentage points in
Q1 – on track with financial planning
- Income up 7.5%
- Expenses up 6.3%
- Strong top line growth driven by
growth initiatives
- Cost increase reflects investments
in future growth
- Unchanged target of 3-4
percentage points for the full year
6.6 5.4 1.2 6.9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2004 2005 2006 Jan-Mar 07
* Excl. full impact from sale of IMB
* *
10
Well controlled expense growth
6.3% 5.3% 3.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Reported
- Excl. variable
salaries and profit sharing
- Excl. variable
salaries, profit sharing and investments in growth areas
- Investments in prioritized
growth areas
- Increase in variable salaries
- Unchanged cost management
alongside growth strategy
- On track with full year outlook
- f cost increase of 4-5%
11
Operating profit
EURm YoY
- Up 6% excluding contribution from
IMB in 2006
- Reported up 5%
- Strong profit trend continued in all
business areas
- Lower loan loss recoveries in 2007
853 863 966 895 927
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
*
* Excl. full impact from sale of IMB
12 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Reported
EUR
Continuous increase in earnings per share
- rolling 12 months
13
Clearly identified strategic initiatives – to support the
- rganic growth strategy
Stronger focus on common group values Product areas in focus Geographical markets in focus Improved efficiency Segments in focus
- Future branch: Increase PBA:s and RM:s time spent with customers
- Nordea Transformation Programme
- New operating model separating responsibilities for Customers, Products and Services
- Long term savings
- Consumer credits and Cards
- Life insurance
- Capital markets products
- Growth Plan Sweden
- Poland, Baltics and Russia
- Values to leverage the organic growth strategy:
- Customer focus
- People orientation
- Teamwork
- Private Banking
- Gold customers
- SME
14
Strengthened leadership within long term savings
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Nordea Average net inflow Nordic Peers
Accumulated net inflow (EURbn)
- Net inflow EUR 35bn 2003-2006
- Private Banking EUR 14bn
- Retail funds EUR 13bn
- European Fund Distribution EUR 1bn
- Other EUR 7bn
- Net inflow in Q1 2007 EUR 2.6bn
- Majority of sales within innovative
products like All Equity, Dynamic fixed income and Stable return
- Improved income and net result
margin
- In total EUR 163bn in AuM
15
Improved market position within consumer lending and cards
YoY
- Consumer lending up 16%
- Non-collateralised up 22%
- Approx. 540,000 new cards issued
- In total 5.8 million cards issued
- Of which approx. 16% credit cards
- Number of credit cards up 39%
Q1oQ4
- Consumer lending up 5%
14.2 14.9 15.4 15.6 16.4
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6
Margin EURbn
%
Lending
Retail consumer lending
16
Continued stable result and increased premium income within Life
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 04Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 05Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4 06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 EURm 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 EURm-GWP Product result GWP
- Nordea Life & Pensions the largest
company on the Nordic market with a market share of 10.8%
- Net written premiums up 5%
- Despite of the removal of the popular product
“Kapitalpension”
- Compensated by strong growth in Denmark,
Norway and Poland
- Nordea chosen provider of the
traditional product within the new Swedish ITP scheme
- Nordea qualified with the new traditional product
“Ålderspension med Premiegaranti”
- Business model continues to deliver
stable profit growth
Life product result and 12-month rolling Gross Written Premiums (GWP)
17
Strong revenue growth in Nordea Markets
153 169 157 163 207 194 180 229 242
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Strong revenue growth in Nordea Markets
- All time high revenues in Q1
- Customer activity continued at high
levels - increase in capital markets transactions with large corporates
- Increased cross-selling of Markets
related products to SMEs
- Potential to increase penetration of
Nordea’s customer base
EURm
18
Continue to leverage on strong position within long- term savings – Private Banking
EURbn
- Strong asset growth in Nordic Private
Banking
Net inflow in Q1 21% annualised Result of roll-out of new common advisory
concepts, particularly in Norway and Sweden
- Inflow mainly from external sources,
- approx. 2/3 of total
- AuM up 20% YoY
29 31 33 34 36 37 39 42 45 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
European private banking Nordic private banking
19
Strong growth in revenues with existing customers
- segmentation strategy pays off
10% 61% 15% 15% Bronze Silver Gold Private Banking
Share of Retail Household income in Q1 2007 Gold segment Mar 06 to Mar 07
143 66 165 70
- No. of customers
(m) Volume per customer (EUR'000) Business volumes (EUR bn)
2.2 2.3
7.8% 6.8% 15.2%
- Private Banking reached 10% share
- f Retail Household revenues for the
first time
- Increased deposit revenues benefits
all segments
- Increased business with Gold
customers
20
Continued revenue growth in all Retail corporate segments
7% 4% 6%
Small Medium Large
Share of Retail Corporate income Q1 2007 Income growth YoY
56% 26% 18%
Small Medium Large
- Large companies accounts for more
than 50% of new growth potential in all segments
- Solid revenue growth in all segments
across markets
- One Nordic customer area
- Gather the corporate relationship management
competencies
21
Geographical markets in focus
Growth plan Sweden
Accelerated growth plan in Nordic markets, in particular Sweden Focus on advisory services and product segments with growth potential 200 advisors recruited and trained in Retail banking last 12 months
Poland and Baltic countries
Continued high activity in Poland and the Baltics – revenues up 38% Total lending up 53% YoY Number of Gold customers doubled YoY Increased growth ambitions in Poland with up to 150 new branches in 2-3 years. 7 new banking units opened during first quarter in Poland and the Baltic countries Preparations for more rapid expansion of the network are ongoing and the result will
gradually seen during the latter part of 2007
22
Orgresbank
Acquisition finalised in Q1 2007
Balance sheet consolidated in Nordea Group accounts per 31 March 2007
Strong financial performance in Q1
Total income EUR 18m (EUR 55m full year 2006) Total expenses EUR 10m (EUR 31m full year 2006)
Orgresbank will capture growth in the Russian market
Russian corporate customers Nordic corporate customers Personal customers in high end segment
23
The next step towards improved operational efficiency
- Product and delivery chain to
reduce time-to-market of our products
- Strengthen the team
approach
- Group perspective on the
product delivery chain
- Nordea Transformation
programme 3-5 years perspective
- Requires investments in IT-
platform
- Gradually replacing old
systems
- Future branch:
- Straighten out work
processes
- Reduce administrative
burden
- Continuous
improvement
- Increase the time
Personal bank advisors and relationship managers spend with customers
- Target to increase time
spend with customers 50- 100%
- Efficiency gains to handle
growth Unified customer processes Free up time for sales Unified product delivery processes
Next phase of efficiency improvements goes cross units
24
New operating model to support growth
Group Legal & Compliance Institutional & International Banking Private Banking
Account Products Cash Management & Payments Capital Market Products Savings Products & Asset Management
Banking & Capital Market Products Savings & Life Products Group Services & Technology People & Identity Group Corporate Centre Group Credit & Risk Control Nordic Banking
Segment Household and Corporate
Group Legal & Compliance
25
Outlook
Nordeas’ growth strategy continues to pay off and Nordea
will continue to deliver on its financial targets
Nordea believes that strong revenue growth will continue
in 2007
As previously stated the cost increase for the full-year
2007 is expected to be of the same magnitude as in 2006, ie 4-5%
The gap between revenue and cost growth is for the full
year 2007 expected to be 3-4%-points*
* Excl. the impact of the consolidation Orgresbank
26
Summary
Organic growth strategy continues to pay off
Revenues up 8% Total lending up 16% AuM up 12 %
Strong performance in all business areas Cost management unchanged alongside growth plans Clearly identified strategic initiatives to improve performance further New organisation and operating model to support growth strategy On track with financial targets
Risk adjusted profit up 11% Gap 1.2 percentage points Outlook unchanged
CFO Presentation
28
Income statement summary
6 853 895 Operating profit 7 665 701 Net profit 25 20 10 Equity method 57 21 33 Other income
- 58
31 13 Loan losses 6 4 4 8 8 4 6 8 Chg %
- 933
- 23
- 367
- 543
1,754 279 507 927 Q1/06
- 24
Depreciation
- 383
Other expenses
- 992
Total operating expenses
- 585
Staff costs 1,873 Total operating income 291 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 535 Net fee and commission income 1,004 Net interest income Q1/07 EURm
* Adjusted for full impact of IMB
*
29
Income statement summary
882 881 Profit before loan losses
- 20
- 7
- 84
- 2
26
- 2
- 3
- 1
27 43
- 6
- 3
Chg % 966 895 Operating profit 876 701 Net profit 7 10 Equity method 26 33 Other income 82 13 Loan losses
- 1,016
- 19
- 391
- 606
1,898 310 549 1,006 Q4/06
- 24
Depreciation
- 383
Other expenses
- 992
Total operating expenses
- 585
Staff costs 1.873 Total operating income 291 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 535 Net fee and commission income 1,004 Net interest income Q1/07 EURm
30
Net interest income
EURm YoY
- Up 8%
- Lending volume growth largely
compensated for margin pressure
Total lending up 16% SME lending up 14% Consumer lending up 16%
- Continued margin pressure
- Both household and corporate deposits
margins improved following higher market interest rates
Q1oQ4
- Day count effect negative of approx. EUR
20m
927 979 1,006 1,004 957
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
31
- 10
8 Treasury
- 7
30 Other, net
- 2
77 Total
- 9
- 47
Margin driven
28
- 75
21 65
86
YoY 8
- Deposit margins
- 17
4 20
24
Q1oQ4
- Lending margins
- Deposit volumes
- Lending volumes
Volume driven
Change in net interest income
EURm
32
Net commission income
EURm YoY
- Up 6%
- Lending commissions up 14%
Following strong lending growth Strong contribution from Acquisition Finance
- Card commission up 9%
- Savings commission up 6%
Q1oQ4
- Down 3% compared to strong Q4
- Lending related commissions up
reflecting volume growth
- Savings related commission stable
High transaction and performance related
fees in Q4
507 497 549 535 521
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
33
Breakdown of commission income - gross
306 319 338 335 325 301 359 356 175 177 177 171 183 187 197 181 90 87 98 88 86 87 91 100 48 32 59 41 45 36 49 37
40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Savings related Payments related Lending related Other
EURm
Of which Asset Mgmt Of which Cards
34
Customer business drives increase in net/gains losses
EURm
265 205 277 28 3 19 33 18 220 273
50 100 150 200 250 300 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Business Areas Treasury and eliminations
YoY
- Up 4% from a high level in the first
quarter 2006
- Up 3% in Business Areas
- Continued successful penetration of small and
medium-sized companies
- Growth in both fixed-income and equity products
Q1oQ4
- High income level from Q4 maintained
in Q1
- All time high revenues in Markets
35
40 273 57 3 124 89 Q1/07 44 277 80 6 93 98 Q4/06 8 205 51 7 72 75 Q3/06 7 220 61 4 68 87 Q2/06 8 Asset Mgmt 96 CIB 40 Group Treasury 265 BAs 69 92 Q1/06 Life Retail Net/gains losses, EURm
Increased revenues from net/gains losses in Business areas
36
Operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 8% when excluding IMB
- Reported up 6%
- Net interest income up 8%
- Volume growth largely compensating for pressure on
lending margins
- Increased contribution from deposits
- Commission income up 6%
Q1oQ4
- Down by 1% from seasonally high Q4
- Day effect on NII
* Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares 1,754 1,734 1,898 1,873 1,780
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
*
37
Revenue growth in Nordea
1,754 Income Jan-Mar 07 Volumes, margins lending Savings: AM, Life and savings accounts Markets
- 10
+23 +35 Income Jan-Mar 06
EURm
1,873 +23 Other +12 Poland & Baltics +119 +36 Transaction accounts
38
Expenses
EURm YoY
- Costs up 6%
- Investments in growth areas
- Increased variable salaries
- Cost increase in business areas 4%
- Basel II and other strategic projects explains the
remaining increase
- Staff costs up 8%
- Wage increases 4%-points
- Higher variable salaries 1.5%-points
- Increase in FTEs 1%-points
- Increased costs for training and other costs 1.5%-
points Q1oQ4
- Down by 2%
543 550 606 585 367 372 355 391 383 23 21 23 19 24 552
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Staff costs Other expenses Depreciation
933 1,016 928 945 992
39
Investments in future growth
Increase in variable salaries and profit sharing Investments in areas like Nordic markets (in particular Sweden), Private Banking, Poland Expenses Jan-Mar 07 Basel II and
- ther
strategic projects Expenses Jan-Mar 06 EURm Investments in growth areas* +59 +15 Other +9 +15 +20 992 933 1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 6.3%
- Cost increase less than
2% when excluding investments and variable salaries
40
Staff costs
Staff costs Q1 2007 Wage increases Higher variable salaries and profit sharing Increase in FTEs, net Staff costs Q1 2006
EURm
- No. of recruited
FTEs: approx. 2,500
- No. of FTEs that
has left: approx. 2,200
Training and
- ther costs
related to the
- rganic growth
strategy +9 +42 +20 543 +5 +8 585 4% 1.5% 1% 1.5% 8%
41
Number of FTEs
- Increased number of sales related employees and falling number of employees in
processing and staff units
29,052 29,201 29,396 29,249 29,383
4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 334 29,052 29.383 Total 1,036 Orgresbank 347 1,415 1,762
- f which P&B
- 312
6,267 5,955 Group Functions 646 22,785 23,428 BAs 10
- 322
38 378 227 Chg YoY 1,142 5,125 2,038 3,236 17.511 Q1/06 1,152 4,803 2,076 3,614 17,738 Q1/07 Group Staffs CIB GPT AM & Life Retail FTEs
42
Loan losses
EURm YoY
- Recoveries maintained at high level
and limited new provisions
- Provisions include EUR 20m for
collectively assessed loans related to the property market in the Baltics
- Provision reflects increased macro-economic risk in
the region
- Nordea is confident in the overall quality of it’s
Baltic credit portfolio
- 7
- 89
- 55
- 82
- 13
- 101
- 31
- 23
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
43
69% 354 47% 0.40% 852
- 764
1,616 Q4 2006 396 364 Allowances for collectively assessed loans 82% 76% Total allowances / Impaired loans, gross individually assessed 0.37% 0.31% Impaired loans, net / lending (%) 58% 49% Allowances, individually assessed / Impaired loans, gross, 706 687 Impaired loans, net, individually assessed 975 668 Allowances for individually assessed loans 1,355 Q1 2007 1,681 Q1 2006 Impaired loans, gross, individually assessed EURm
Impaired loans
44
Net profit
EURm YoY
- Up 7% excluding IMB
- Reported up 5%
- Effective tax rate 22% following
revaluation of the deferred tax asset in Finland
Q1oQ4
- Down 20%
- Lower loan loss reversals in Q1 EUR 13m
(EUR 82m)
- Low tax cost in Q4
- Profit before loan losses sustained
665 673 876 701 740 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
*
*Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
45
Improved profitability
%
- Strong RoE at 18% - Q1/06 20%
- Higher equity 2007
- Risk adjusted return on capital at risk
continues to improve 23.7% (23.0%)
18.0 21.5 18.0 20.6 22.7 23.7
5 10 15 20 25 2005 2006 Jan-Mar 07 RoE RaRoCar
*
*Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares ** Risk-adjusted return on capital at risk
**
46
Growth in risk adjusted profit in line with long-term target
8 349 378 Economic Profit 9.0 169 517 201 91 933 12 (*) 1,754 Q1/06 198 cost of equity 8.0% (7.5%) 11 575 Risk adjusted profit 9.9 213 93 992 1,873 Q1/07 10 Chg % Economic capital standard tax expected losses total operating expenses non recurring items Total income EURm
* IMB revenues
47
Strong increase in risk-adjusted EPS
0.26 0.20 0.27 0.22
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 Reported EPS, EUR EPS, risk adjusted, EUR Jan- Mar 06 Jan-Mar 07
48
Risk-weighted assets (RWA)
EURbn
- RWA up 11%, EUR 8bn
- Strong lending growth – mainly capital
intense lending
- Non collateralised consumer lending up 22%
- SME lending up 14%
- CIB lending up 8%
- Orgresbank included
174 180 185 185 193
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
49
Capital position
%
- Tier 1 ratio 6.8%
- Total impact of Orgresbank 15bps
- Impact of changed regulations 5bps
- Total capital ratio 9.4%
6.8 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
50
Return on risk weighted assets, rolling 4 quarters
153 159 162 169 174 180 185 185 193 1.26 1.42 1.45 1.41 1.47 1.44 1.46 1.62 1.61 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
RWA Return on RWA
EURbn %
*
* Excl. Gain from sale of IMB shares
51
Capital management
- Equity up 18% YoY
RoE 18% (20%)
- Economic Capital up 10% to EUR 9.9bn
Increased credit risk exposure following increased lending of 16%
- Risk adjusted return (RaRoCar) continues to improve 23.7 % (23.0%)
- Tier 1 unchanged YoY at 6.8%
RWA up 11% Effected by Orgresbank
- AGM decision to authorise the Board of Directors’ on acquisition of own
shares up to 10% of the capital
- Plan to report RWA under the Basel II framework from the second quarter
2007
52
Improved rating
AA Long R-1 (high) Short DBRS AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank AB Short S&P Long Long Short Long Short Fitch Moody’s
Moody’s upgraded Nordea Bank AB two notches to Aa1 in March/April
Business trends
54
Total lending
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Corporate Housing loans Other loans Public sector
EURbn
148 146 182 149 147 147 156 155 170 161 175 189 199 191 201 214 222
55
Household mortgages, volumes and margins
42.7 44.2 46.8 48.2 49.6 52.9 54.7 56.6 57.8 60.1 63.0 65.2 66.9 69.4 71.8 74.9 76.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
EURbn %
56
Retail consumer lending, volumes and margins
12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.6 16.4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
- 0.2
0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8
EURbn %
57
Lending to corporates (SME), volumes and margins
57.3 57.3 57.4 56.7 56.3 58.1 58.5 61.0 64.0 65.3 67.9 70.0 70.9 73.2 73.4 78.4 81.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
EURbn %
58
CIB lending, volumes and margins*
21.7 22.6 21.4 18.4 18.1 20.3 19.0 18.0 21.4 21.7 20.8 21.2 22.6 23.3 22.3 23.6 24.5 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
59
Total deposits
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Of which household deposits
EURbn
97 98 92 96 93 91 95 105 105 108 106 116 119 113 119 126 126
60
Retail deposits, households, volumes and margins
40.2 40.7 41.7 41.3 40.4 42.3 42.9 43.8 44.1 45.7 46.9 47.0 47.1 49.6 50.1 50.7 51.4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
EURbn %
61
Retail deposits, SME, volumes and margins
26.2 26.3 26.7 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.8 30.5 29.4 30.1 31.5 33.4 32.6 34.8 34.7 37.5 37.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
EURbn %
62
CIB, deposits, volumes and margins*
14.4 15.4 13.3 15.2 14.9 17.9 18.0 21.0 23.2 20.4 18.5 22.1 21.2 22.3 21.8 25.0 27.1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
63
Structural Interest Income Risk (SIIR)
- 249
220 Q1/07
- 161
131 Q1/06
- 220
206 Q4/06 Decreasing market rates, 100bp Increasing market rates, 100bp EURm, annualised effect on NII*
- Increased SIIR following higher business volumes
- Reduced duration in ALM programme
*Approx. end of period SIIR is defined as the effect on net interest income (NII) in the next 12 months if market rates change by one percentage point. Figures are asymmetrical as interest rates on deposits from customers cannot be reduced below 0%. Figures are based on maturity and repricing structure, and the effect going forward will be subject to management decisions and the competitive situation in the market.
64
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Nordic Retail funds (*) European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Assets under management
EURbn YoY
- Up 12%
- Continued strong growth in
Nordic Private Banking, up 23%
- Volumes from Institutional
clients up 20%
Q1oQ4
- Up 3%
- Nordic Private Banking up 6%
- Continued inflow and strong
markets explain the increase
149 144 146 158 163
(*) Numbers restated for removal of administrative mandate
65
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Net inflows
EURbn Q1/Q4
- Net inflow EUR 2.6bn in Q1
- 7% annualised
- Net inflow in Nordic Private
Banking EUR 1.2bn and Institutional clients EUR 1.1bn
- Continued growth of the Nordic customer
base
- Net outflow from Retail funds of
EUR 0.3bn in Q1
- Outflow mainly restricted to older funds in
Sweden
- Continued positive inflow from
European Fund Distribution
1.8 3.4 3.3 2.0 2,6
66
Retail Banking profit before loan losses
EURm YoY
- Revenues up 5%
Strongest growth in Finland (11%), Denmark and
Sweden up 6% and 55 respectively
Margin pressure in Norway – revenues down 5% Improved deposit margins contributing to the income
growth in all markets – in particular Finland
- Profit before loan losses up 5%
Strongest growth in Finland, up 20%
- RaRoCar 25%
575 588 595 601 595 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
27 53 Q1/06 26 53 FY 2006 25 53 Q1/07 RaRoCar, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
67
Retail Banking
25.2 51.2 60 21 Q1/07 151 147
- 218
365 Q1/07 Sweden 21.8 46.5 60 22 Q1/06 6% 4% 3% 3% Chg 13.5 26.5 51 26 Q1/06
- 38%
- 21%
9%
- 5%
Chg 15.6 30.5 59 18 Q1/07 71 71
- 104
175 Q1/07 Norway Finland Denmark 24.1 36.4 49 33 Q1/06 26% 20% 2% 11% Chg 25.6 40.9 45 37 Q1/07 224 202
- 165
367 Q1/07 45.5 54.3 Lending, bn 22.3 20.5 Deposits, bn 52 52 C/I ratio, % 24 27 RaRoCar, % Q1/07 Q1/06 1% 179 Operating profit 5% 179 Profit before loan losses 6% 6% Chg
- 192
Total expenses 371 Total income Q1/07 EURm
68
CIB profit before loan losses
EURm YoY
- Revenues up 10%
- Up 15% excl. IMB
- Strong growth in Poland and the Baltics, revenues
up 40%
- Continued strong deal flow within FID
- Shipping, Offshore and Oil divisions maintain at
high level
- Profit before loan losses up 14%
- Up 26% excl. IMB
- Business activity high, especially in the capital
markets area
- Limited cost increase
164 145 158 187 157 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
24 46 Q1/06 22* 49* FY 2006 26 45 Q1/07 RaRoCar, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios *
*Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
69
CIB
2.4 5.2 60
Q1/07
16 16
- 24
40
Q1/07
P&B 1.8 3.4 66
Q1/06 100% 60% 26% 38% Chg
4.3 8.6 19
Q1/06 2% 2% 0% 2% Chg
4.5 9.9 19
Q1/07
43 43
- 10
53
Q1/07
SOOSD FID CBD 10.4 2.0 56
Q1/06 38% 38%
- 5%
14% Chg
14.5 1.7 47
Q1/07
40 40
- 35
75
Q1/07
12.0 12.9
Lending, bn
8.2 6.6
Deposits, bn
33 31
C/I ratio, % Q1/07 Q1/06 31%
71
Operating profit 8%
71
Profit before loan losses
- 5%
3% Chg*
- 35
Total expenses
106
Total income Q1/07 EURm
* Adjusted for IMB
70
Asset Management product result
EURm YoY
- Income up 7%
- Management fees up 11%, driven by increased
AuM
- Transaction related income down 10%
- Total income margin unchanged at 71bps
- Product result up 9%
- Continued growth within Nordic
Private Banking
- AuM up 23% and number of customers up 13%
- Pressure on margins
- Unchanged profit margin at 36bps -
- excl. Nordic Private Banking
92 78 113 100 85 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
146 49 Q1/06 163 48 Q1/07 AuM, EURbn C/I ratio, % Key ratios
71
Life insurance, product result
EURm YoY
- Life premiums up 5% despite negative
sales effects on Swedish portfolio from regulatory changes
- A loss of more than 1/3 of the Swedish premium
income
- Compensated by strong premium growth in
Denmark, Norway and Poland
- Total investment assets up 9%
Q1/Q4
- Life product result down from
exceptional high Q4
56 61 74 58 52 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
7.5 0.2 Q1/06 8.0 1.1 Q1/07 Financial buffers, % Inv return, % Key ratios
72
Group Treasury, operating profit
15 10 6 39 27 34 21 34 42 32
20 40 60 80 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Group Investment Group Funding
EURm
- Higher investments earnings and
gross investment returns
- Investment return Q1 1.25% - 5.06% annualised,
well above required rate of return of 4%
- Strong funding activity
73
Summary
Organic growth strategy continues to pay off
Revenues +8% Total lending +16% AuM +12 %
Strong performance in all business areas Cost management unchanged alongside growth plans Clearly identified strategic initiatives to improve performance further New organisation and operating model to support growth strategy On track with financial targets
Risk adjusted profit +11% Gap 1.2 percentage points Outlook unchanged
Facts & figures
75
Facts & Figures, content
Credit quality
Page 76
Economic capital
Page 85
Business areas
Page 88
Balance sheet
Page 117
Market shares
Page 120
Appendix
Page 127
Credit quality
77
Loan portfolio by customer category*
85 84 82 78 79 83 80 84 91 97 100 101 105 105 113 44 46 48 49 50 53 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 68 71 74 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 119 93 79 24
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Corporate lending Housing loans Other loans
EURbn * Excluding public sector
78
Public sector 2.1% Household customers 45.0% Companies 52.9% Household customers 44.6% Public sector 1.8% Companies 53.6%
End Q1/06, EUR 190.7bn End Q1/07, EUR 222.2bn
Loan portfolio by customer group
79
Housing loans 78.8% Other loans 21.2%
Lending to household customers
End of Q1/07 EUR 98.7bn
- Other loans comprise
- Consumer credits
- Investment credits
- Car financing
- Overdraft facilities
- Credit cards
- Home equity credits
80
Other 8% Real estate 26% Construction 3% Agriculture & Fishing 5%
- Transp. &
Communication 6% Finance 11% Renting,Consulting and other services 10% Manufacturing 15% Commerce and services 11% Shipping & Offshore 5%
Lending to companies by industry
End of Q1/07 EUR 119.5bn
81
222,2 5,9 6,6 13.9 12,4 12,7 17,5 12,6 6,7 3,6 31,6 98,7 Q1/07 214.0 5.7 6.4 14.2 12.5 12.7 15.0 11.1 5.9 3.4 30.7 96.4 Q4/06 201.1 5.3 6.1 13.7 12.5 8.4 14.6 10.8 5.9 3.3 28.6 91.9 Q3/06 198.8 5.2 5.8 14.5 12.0 9.6 14.5 10.4 5.8 3.6 28.0 89.4 Q2/06 190.7 5.4 5.7 15.1 10.4 8.7 14.0 9.9 5.8 2.9 26.8 86.0 Q1/06 Total Shipping & Offshore Agriculture & Fishing Other companies/public sector Renting, Consulting and other services Finance Manufacturing Trade and services Transport, communication Construction Real estate Household customers EURbn
Loan portfolio in figures
82
USA 1.0% Latin America 0.7% Other 7.3% Nordic countries and P&B 92.7% EU countries 3.4% Other non OECD 0.8% Other OECD 0.4% Asien 1.0%
Lending by geographical area
End of Q1/07 EUR 222.2bn
Nordic countries and P&B, EURbn
- Denmark
60.7
- Sweden
59.8
- Finland
44.7
- Norway
35.5
- P&B
5.4
83
8 8 Financial operations 3 1 4 Public sector 3 4 6 Shipping 26 21 47 Construction 16 22 38 Transport, communication 17 17 35 Agriculture & Fishing 65 104 169 Renting, Consulting and other services 22 13 35 Other companies 87 96 183 Trade and services 163 178 341 Manufacturing 696 59 124 Provisions 1,355 120 322 Gross 659 62 198 Net Total Real estate Household customers
- EURm. End of Q1/07
Impaired loans
84
Loan losses
EURm 192 92 58 86 299
- 215
- 123
- 147
- 140
- 381
- 23
- 31
- 89
- 54
- 82.4
126
- 140
- 13
- 420
- 370
- 320
- 270
- 220
- 170
- 120
- 70
- 20
30 80 130 180 230 280 330 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Gross Reversals Net
YoY
- Positive net loan losses reflecting
recoveries maintained at high level and limited new provisions
- Provisions include EUR 20m for
collectively assessed loan related to the property market in the Baltics
Economic capital
86
Economic capital (EC)
EURbn 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.9 9.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
1,110 Life 1.923 CIB 124 Asset Mgmt 453 116 Treasury GPT 2 Other 6.156 Retail Banking 9,884 Q1/07 Total EC per business area (EURm)
87
Economic capital – distribution
End of Q1/07
Life risk 1% Market risk 15% Operational risk 9% Business risk 12% Credit risk 63% Other 1% CIB 21% Treasury 4% Asset Mgmt & Life 12% Retail 61%
Retail Banking
89
Retail Banking lending and deposit volumes
25.2 15.6 25.6 22.3 Q1/07 26.0 14.7 25.8 21.7 Q4/06 23.9 14.3 25.0 21.6 Q3/06 23.9 14.2 25.0 21.4 Q2/06 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 Norway 21.8 24.1 20.5 Q1/06 22.4 24.8 20.3 Q4/05 21.3 23.9 20.6 Q3/05 20.6 24.0 19.3 Q2/05 Denmark Sweden Finland Deposits, EURbn 51.2 30.5 40.9 54.3 Q1/07 51.1 28.8 39.5 52.5 Q4/06 48.8 27.4 38.6 48.7 Q3/06 49.1 26.8 37.7 47.5 Q2/06 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 Norway 46.5 36.4 45.5 Q1/06 46.1 35.6 45.1 Q4/05 45.2 34.8 43.2 Q3/05 43.3 33.8 41.3 Q2/05 Denmark Sweden Finland Lending, EURbn
90
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.6 17.6 18.8 Q1/07 4.0 17.2 18.3 Q4/06 4.3 16.5 17.7 Q3/06 4.2 16.0 17.5 Q2/06 4.0 15.5 16.9 Q1/06 3.9 15.2 16.4 Q4/05 3.8 14.8 16.2 Q3/05 3.8 14.2 15.9 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Households mortgages Finland, EURbn 6.7 23.1 22.9 Q1/07 6.5 22.5 21.9 Q4/06 6.3 21.8 19.1 Q3/06 6.0 20.8 18.2 Q2/06 5.8 20.3 18.2 Q1/06 5.8 19.6 18.1 Q4/05 5.8 18.8 17.0 Q3/05 5.7 17.9 16.1 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Denmark, EURbn
91
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.0 20.3 25.2 Q1/07 4.1 20.5 24.9 Q4/06 3.7 19.5 24.0 Q3/06 3.6 19.2 24.8 Q2/06 3.4 18.3 23.5 Q1/06 3.4 18.0 23.5 Q4/05 3.3 17.4 23.2 Q3/05 3.3 16.6 22.2 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Sweden, EURbn 1.1 15.3 14.3 Q1/07 1.0 14.7 13.3 Q4/06 1.0 14.0 12.7 Q3/06 1.0 13.3 12.7 Q2/06 0.9 12.8 12.3 Q1/06 0.9 12.4 12.0 Q4/05 0.8 11.9 11.5 Q3/05 0.8 11.4 11.1 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Norway, EURbn
92
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
8.2 9.7 7.8 Q1/07 7.9 9.9 7.9 Q4/06 7.7 9.9 7.4 Q3/06 7.5 10.1 7.4 Q2/06 7.2 9.9 7.0 Q1/06 7.1 10.4 7.2 Q4/05 6.6 10.4 7.0 Q3/05 6.6 10.3 7.2 Q2/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Finland, EURbn 10.7 3.2 8.4 Q1/07 10.0 3.4 8.3 Q4/06 9.9 3.3 8.3 Q3/06 9.9 3.4 8.0 Q2/06 9.5 3.1 7.8 Q1/06 9.4 3.2 7.8 Q4/05 9.5 3.1 8.0 Q3/05 9.0 3.1 7.2 Q2/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Denmark, EURbn
93
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
8.4 5.3 11.5 Q1/07 7.8 5.8 12.5 Q4/06 7.8 5.5 10.6 Q3/06 7.4 5.4 11.1 Q2/06 6.7 5.0 10.1 Q1/06 6.3 5.0 11.0 Q4/05 6.8 5.0 9.6 Q3/05 6.5 4.8 9.4 Q2/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Sweden, EURbn 4.0 1.9 9.6 Q1/07 3.9 2.0 8.8 Q4/06 3.8 2.1 8.3 Q3/06 3.7 2.2 8.3 Q2/06 3.7 2.0 7.7 Q1/06 3.7 1.8 7.4 Q4/05 3.9 1.7 6.9 Q3/05 3.8 1.7 6.3 Q2/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Norway, EURbn
94
Retail Banking margins
1.76 1.05 3.25 0.56 0.90 Q1/07 1.74
- 1. 06
3.46 0.57 0.92 Q4/06 1.69 1.03 3.53 0.63 0.95 Q3/06 1.66 1.02 3.61 0.70 0.98 Q2/06 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.75 Mortgages, households 4.04 3.81 3.74 3.66 Consumer loans, households 1.62 1.01 1.00 Q1/06 1.55 1.05 1.04 Q4/05 1.56 1.06 1.06 Q3/05 1.53 1.06 1.09 Q2/05 Lending to SME’s Deposits, households Deposits, SME’s %
Payments & transactions
96
E-banking customers, all customers
E-banking customers
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Feb-00 June- Oct-00 Feb-01 June- Oct-01 Feb-02 June- Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-06 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Mill.
E-banking payments
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Mill.
97
Cards, all customers
Issued debit and credit cards
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-01 May-01 Sept-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sept-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-06
Debit cards Credit cards
Mill.
Card payments
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07
Mill.
98
Payment transactions, households
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07
Manual transactions Payment ATMs Card payments Cash withdrawal ATMs Direct debit Netbank payments
99
Payment transactions, households
330 45.7 28.7 36.5 188.8 3.8 26.1 Q1/2007 97.6 117.3 139.3 155.7 168.3 E-banking payments 961 1,026 1,109 1,204 1,300 Total 81.5 204.4 395.5 31.7 150.6 2002 86.1 197.4 459.9 27.1 137.7 2003 98.5 190.4 527.8 23.6 129.1 2004 621.0 735.1 Card payments 19.7 16.3 Payterminals 124.6 108.7 Manual transactions 181.7 164.8 Cash withdrawal ATM 106.3 2006 101.2 2005 Direct debit Mill.
Corporate and Institutional Banking
101
CIB lending and deposit volumes and margins
0,85 38.2 5.2 9.9 1.7 12.9 Q1/07 0,86 36.4 4.6 9.4 1.5 12.7 Q4/06 0.83 31.1 3.8 9.1 1.3 12.0 Q3/06 0.87 32.3 3.7 9.1 1.5 12.7 Q2/06 0.93 32.2 3.4 8.6 2.0 12.0 Q1/06 0.96 32.4 3.3 8.5 1.7 11.1 Q4/05 0.86 32.5 2.5 7.7 2.0 12.0 Q2/05 0.91 32.2 2.8 8.1 1.8 10.9 Q3/05 Total* Poland and Baltic Corporate Banking Division International and Shipping Division Financial Institutions Division Lending, EURbn Margins**, % * Incl. Markets volumes ** Excl. Markets and Poland & Baltics 0,36 31.0 2.4 4.5 14.5 8.2 Q1/07 0,34 29.3 2.3 4.3 13.0 7.8 Q4/06 0.38 25.1 2.0 3.8 11.3 6.7 Q3/06 0.37 26.4 1.9 4.5 10.3 7.5 Q2/06 0.37 25.7 1.8 4.3 10.4 6.6 Q1/06 0.40 26.8 1.8 4.3 10.9 7.0 Q4/05 0.40 24.7 1.4 3.6 8.8 8.0 Q2/05 0.39 23.3 1.5 3.6 8.6 6.3 Q3/05 Total* Poland and Baltic Corporate Banking Division International and Shipping Division Financial Institutions Division Deposits, EURbn Margins**,%
102
Nordea operations in Poland and the Baltic countries
16** 6 2 7 4 Operating profit (Q1), EURm 1.1 % 2.3 % 3.1 % 6.6 % Market share, deposits, % 18 1.7 % 1,306 1,786 2,203 912 48 374,850 Poland 7 5 4 Country position, overall 1,773 207 356 286 Number of FTEs 95 12 18 17 Branches/salespoints 1,263,750* 57,350 47,500 55,050 Customers 6,265 1,076 1,612 1,374 Total assets, EURm 8.3 % 353 1,570 Latvia 9.4 % 524 1,260 Estonia 6.5 % 224 963 Lithuania Market share, lending, % 2,407 Deposits & Funds, EURm 5,579 Commitments***, EURm Total End of Q1/07
* Incl. Polish Life customers *’ Difference compared to summary of country result is explained by Nordic expenses *** Includes guarantees
Asset Management & Life Insurance
104
Breakdown of AuM by market and channels
* All funds targeted at Nordic Retail segment. ** Includes pension pools products
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Europe North America Retail funds*
(sold through
- wn distribution)
Fund sales through third-parties Private Banking Institutional customers Total by market Q1/07 EURbn 162.7 38.2 8.7 7.5 1.8 18.8 0.2
- 5.8
- 18.7
16.5 2.6 9.5
- 12.1
4.9 3.6 3.1 3.2 0.6 18.7 9.1 5.3
- 6.9
3.9 1.2 58.2 38.0 13.3 32.7 19.9 0.6 27.5 54.2 5.8 37.0 Life & Pensions**
105
71 67 65 79 71
- 22
- 22
- 21
- 23
- 21
36 32 31 43 36
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Income margin Operating expenses margin Result margin
Asset Management – margins*
Bps
- Margins in line with first quarter last year
- Underlying changes in income margin mix,
as management fee margins are up and transaction income margins down compared to first quarter last year
- Minor change in asset mix – international
fixed income assets down and Nordic fixed income assets up
*Margins calculated using average AuM for Asset Management Activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities.
106
Asset structure*
Q1/07
*Average AuM for Asset Management activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities.
Q1/06
Nordic fixed income 41% Int'l. equities 28% Nordic equities 14% Int'l. fixed income 17% Nordic fixed income 43% Int'l. equities 28% Nordic equities 15% Int'l. fixed income 14%
107
European fund distribution
- 1,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Inflow AuM
EURbn
5798 115
108
Life - breaking out profit drivers
- Fee based on size of life provisions in “with profit” companies – DK, FI
- Profit-sharing from the Norwegian business (existing model, change pending)
- 25% of surplus/deficit from cost result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- 25% of surplus/deficit from risk result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- Investment return from separated shareholders’ equity (DK, SE)
- Health and accident result, holding company result etc.
- Net unit-linked result including unit-linked cost/risk result
- Commissions paid to Retail Banking less distribution cost in Retail Banking
Fee contribution Contribution from cost result Contribution from risk result
- Inv. return on
shareholders’ equity Other profits Unit-linked Retail commission and distribution cost
109
Life - profit drivers
416 605 1.021 32 58
- 5
17 46
- 3
8 5
- 1
37 Q1/07 511 602 1.112 37 74
- 5
12 67 4 11 9
- 4
47 Q4/06 267 454 720 37 61
- 4
14 51 5 6 6 34 Q3/06 404 560 964 35 52
- 4
13 43 5 1 6
- 4
35 Q2/06 390 582 972 30 56
- 4
13 47 5 7
- 1
36 Q1/06 Of which income within Retail Key figures Premiums written, net of reinsurance Here of from Traditional business Here of from Unit-linked business Total Profit Unit linked Traditional insurance Other profits Estimated distribution cost in Retail
- Inv. return on Shareholders Equity
Total Profit Traditional Total product result Contribution from risk result Contribution from cost result Fee contribution/profit sharing EURm
110
Life – net written premiums by market
1.021 125 97 213 257 329 Q1/07 1.112 150 191 238 205 328 Q4/06 720 97 95 151 134 244 Q3/06 151 153 Sweden 107 124 Other 972 964 Total 236 205 Norway 237 262 Denmark 241 221 Finland Q1/06 Q2/06 EURm
111
Life, investments
EURbn
- Equities
predominantly listed equities 1/3 Nordic, 2/3 international
- Bonds
3/4 Nordic issuers primarily government and
mortgage institutions
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
Equities Real Estate Alternative investments Bonds Unit linked
30,5 30,3 31,1 32,5 33,0
112
Life - asset allocation
22 23 32.5 33.0 Total 13 21 20 26 Q1/07 Equities, % 7 19 22 29 Q4/06 3.7 4.7 8.6 14.4 Q4/06 Q1/07 3.6 Sweden 4.9 Norway 8.8 Finland 14.5 Denmark Total, EURbn
113
Life - solvency situation
End of Q1/07 203 68 134 66 Sweden** 323 517 749 232 Finland 127 139 648 510 Denmark 239 237 406 170 Norway* Solvency in % of requirement Solvency buffer Actual solvency Required solvency EURm
* Excluding unit linked company ** Nordea Life Sweden I
114
Life – solvency sensitivity
End of Q1/07 203 239 323 127 Solvency in % of requirement 183 239 247 125 Equities drop 12% 200 239 358 125 Interest rates down 50bp 239 Norway 157 Sweden 128 Denmark Finland 290 Interest rates up 50bp
115
Life – financial buffers
10.6 13.6 6.1 7.3 13.3 Q1/07 2,337 220 228 386 1,503 Q1/07 12.4 210 Sweden
% of total provisions EURm
10.4 2,277 Total 6.8 361 Finland 13.1 1,474 Denmark 6.4 232 Norway Q4/06 Q4/06
116
Life – buffers in different scenarios
End of Q1/07
EURm
228 228 386 1,503 Financial buffers, actual 214 151 209 1,207 Equities drop 12% 182 231 467 1,444 Interest rates down 50bp 226 Norway 267 Sweden 1,518 Denmark Finland 309 Interest rates up 50bp
Balance sheet
118
Balance sheet
357,344 15,909 24,667 7,987 24,327 90,204 31,562 126,340 36,348 357,344 75,908 23,559 222,238 27,502 8,137 31 Mar 2007 321,196 13,613 20,780 8,009 22,377 87,742 28,808 113,306 26,561 321,196 69,050 22,756 190,687 31,819 6,884 31 Mar 2006 15,322 Total equity 346,890 Total assets 32,288 Deposits by credit institutions 126,452 Deposits and borrowings from the public 31,041 Liabilities to policyholders 83,417 Debt securities in issue 346,890 25,254 8,177 24,939 75,228 24,207 213,985 26,792 6,678 29 Dec 2006 Other liabilities Other assets Derivatives Subordintated liabilities Loans and receivables to credit institutions Derivatives Loans and receivables to the public Total liabilites and equity Treasury bills and other eligible bills EURm
119
Capital base
193,244 8,974 184,270 9,40% 18,099
- 87
- 1,535
682 6,619 6.80% 13,102
- 1,905
- 1,951
- 340
1,440 15,858 Q1/07 185,398 9,069 176,329 9.8% 18,159
- 179
- 1,535
684 6,726 7.1% 13,147
- 1,443
1,770
- 369
1,458 15,271 Q4/06 185,052 16,192 168,860 9.5% 17,613
- 173
- 1,535
812 6,617 6.9% 12,704
- 1,001
- 1,765
- 275
1,457 14,288 Q3/06 180,382 15,252 165,130 9.3% 16,784
- 290
- 1,535
812 6,410 6.8% 12,199
- 634
- 1,800
- 304
1,458 13,479 Q2/06 173,618 16,312 157,306 9.4% 16,284
- 276
- 1,537
827 6,376 6.8% 11,721
- 1,210
- 1,795
- 308
1,462 13,572 Q1/06 RWA market risk Deductions for other investments Total capital base Total capital ratio
- of which perpetual subordinated loans
RWA credit risk Tier 1 capital Tier 1 capital ratio Tier 2 capital Deductions for investments in ins. companies Hybrid capital loans Goodwill Other items net Deferred tax assets Total RWA Core equity EURm
Market shares
121
Market position in Nordic markets
9.7% 11.4% 30.8% 14.4%
- consumer lending
4.3% 11.1% 27.9% 16.5% Life & Pensions* 13.9% 16.3% 35.2% 19.6%
- lending
20.8% 16.2% 36.9% 23.2%
- deposits
17.8% 8.4% 32.5% 21.6%
- deposits
15.4% 11.8% 31.2% 15.3%
- mortgage lending
2.1% 12.9% Sweden 2.9% 7.5% Norway 3.9% 27.1% Finland 7.8% 13.4% Denmark Corporate customers Brokerage (Jan 2007) Investment funds Personal customers Market shares
Statistics mainly from January -February 2007 * 12 months rolling as of end December
122
Personal customer deposits - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 7
30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 100 200 300 400 500 600
Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 100 200 300 400 500 600
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
123
Corporate deposits - market volume & share
5 10 15 20 25 30
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 7
35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 100 200 300 400
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
J u l
- 6
S e p
- 6
N
- v
- 6
J a n
- 7
14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 100 200 300 400 500 600
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-07 Feb-07
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 0.000 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
124
Personal customer lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 100 200 300 400 500
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 7
F e b
- 7
8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 500
Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
125
Mortgage lending households - market volume & share
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 200 400 600 800 1000
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 7
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 10 20 30 40 50 60
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 7
30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35%
The Central Bank of Norway has changed market volume base figures from Jan 06
126
Corporate lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 7
32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250
Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-06 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
F e b
- 4
A p r
- 4
J u n
- 4
A u g
- 4
O c t
- 4
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
F e b
- 7
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
Appendix
128
Ratings
AA AA AA AA Long R-1 (high) R-1 (high) R-1 (high) R-1 (high) Short DBRS AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank AB A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ Short S&P AAA AAA AA- AA- AA- Long Long Short Long Short A1 P-1 Norgeskreditt Aaa Nordea Kredit Aaa Nordea Hypotek* AA- F1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank N AA- F1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank F AA- F1+ Aa1 P-1 Nordea Bank D Fitch Moody’s
*Covered bond rating
129
6.7
- 15
- 5
5 15 25 35
Bank of Irland BNP HBoS Allied Irish Banks DnB NOR Swedbank Societe Generale SHB Erste Bank KBC Barclays RBoS Lloyds Danske Bank SEB Nordea Unicredito Commerzbank Hypovereinsbank ABN Amro
%
Top quartile
Total shareholder return (TSR) Ytd 2007 (2/1 2007 – 2/4 2007)
130
Largest registered shareholders, end March 2007
1.9 0.5 % 12.7 Varma Insurance 0.3 0.8 % 21.5 Second Swedish National Pension Fund 0.4 0.7 % 19.4 Third Swedish National Pension Fund 0.0 1.7 % 45.0 AMF Pension 37.3 2.8 % 71.9 Sampo Oyj 0.1 0.4 % 10.7 Govt of Singapore Inv Corp
- 4.9
0.7 % 18.4 First Swedish National Pension Fund
- 5.8
1.6 % 40.8 SEB Funds
- 0.2
0.4 % 10.5 Länsförsäkringar Funds
- 1.8
1.1 % 27.6 Nordea Funds 12.7
- 0.6
0.7 % 17.6 Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund 0.9 0.6 % 15.0 AMF Pension Funds 9.2 55.3 % 1434.2 Other 100.0 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 1.2 % 2.0 % 2.4 % 2.5 % 4.0 % 19.9 % Percent of Nordea 0,0 Nordea Profit-sharing Foundation 2,594.1 Total number of outstanding shares 0.6 63.9 Robur Funds 1.0 62.0 Alecta 0.0 515.6 Swedish state 0.0 102.5 Nordea Denmark Fund
- 0.8
53.0 SHB/SPP Funds 0.0 Henki-Sampo-Group
- 0.6
29.9 Skandia Life Insurance Change 30 days, mill shares Number of shares, mill Shareholder
131
4.04 2.94 4.86 3.69 4.12 3.74 3.98 3.57 31-12-06 4.18 3.28 5.11 4.05 4.27 3.95 4.12 3.77 30-03-07 0.14 0.34 0.25 0.36 0.15 0.21 0.14 0.20 Change Q1/07 Short, SE Long, SE Short, NO Long, NO Long, DK Short, DK Long, EUR (5 years) Short, EUR (one week) %
Market development – interest rates
132
Macro data – Nordic market
% 2006e 2007e 2008e Gross domestic product DK 3.6 2.1 1.5 FI 5.6 3.2 3.6 NO 2.6 3.4 2.8 SE 4.3 3.4 2.5 Inflation DK 1.9 1.7 1.9 FI 1.6 1.8 1.6 NO 2.3 1.0 2.1 SE 1.4 1.4 1.3 Private consumption DK 3.9 2.6 1.6 FI 3.6 2.5 2.8 NO 4.0 3.2 2.1 SE 2.8 3.5 2.4 Unemployment DK 4.5 3.9 4.0 FI 7.9 7.4 7.0 NO 3.6 2.9 2.8 SE 5.4 5.3 5.1
Source: Nordea Markets Economic Outlook January 2007. In Norway, forecasts are for mainland GDP
133
Financial calendar 2007
Q2 report 2007 will be published 19 July Q3 report 2007 will be published 25 October (please note change of date)
www.nordea.com/ir
134
Disclaimer
- Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are
based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially from any expected future results or performance, express or implied, by the forward looking statements. Factors that might cause forward looking statements to differ materially from actual results include, among other things, regulatory and economic factors. Nordea assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained herein.
- No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Nordea or its
directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of Nordea or any of its directors,
- fficers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever
arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
- This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any
solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Nordea, nor shall it or any part
- f it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or
investment decision.