Investor Presentation 21 February 2007 CEO Presentation Record - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 21 February 2007 CEO Presentation Record - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation 21 February 2007 CEO Presentation Record results following reinforced organic growth strategy RoE at all time high 22.9% Operating profit up 25% to EUR 3,820m (EUR 3,048m) Net profit up 39% to EUR 3,153m (EUR
CEO Presentation
3
Record results following reinforced organic growth strategy – RoE at all time high 22.9%
- Operating profit up 25% to EUR 3,820m (EUR 3,048m)
- Net profit up 39% to EUR 3,153m (EUR 2,269m)
- Earnings per share EUR 1.21 (EUR 0.86) up 41%
- Total dividend per share EUR 0.49, up 40% corresponding to total dividend payment
- f EUR 1,271m.
- Income up 12% to EUR 7,377m (EUR 6,573m in 2005)
- Costs up 4% - reflecting higher business activity
- Gap between revenue and cost growth 5.4%-points, excl. full impact of IMB sale
- Cost/income ratio continued down to 52%
- Positive net loan losses of EUR 257m (EUR 137m) – 11th consecutive quarter with
net recoveries
- Return on equity 22.9% (18.0%)
4
Strong momentum in all business areas
- Total lending up 14%
- Mortgage lending up 15%
- SME lending up 12%
- Consumer lending up 12% - non collateralised up 17%
- Number of credit cards increased by 25%
- Strong growth in Private Banking
- Increased cross-selling of Markets’ products to SMEs
- Strong increase in capital markets transactions with large corporates
- Net written premiums in Life up 22%
5
Continued growth in operating income
EURm
6,127 6,573 7,377
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 2004 2005 2006 YoY
- Up 12%
- Up 9% excl. sale of IMB shares
- Steady increase in net interest income
- Volume growth more than compensating for lending
margin pressure.
- Improved deposit margins
- Higher commission income – fuelled by
savings products
- Net/gains losses – strong increase in
customer driven financial transactions
Q4oQ3
- Strong increase when adjusting for IMB
- Accelerating business momentum in all
Business Areas
6
Higher share of income being non-interest income
- Increased proportion of non-
interest income 48%
- Excl. IMB sale 46%
- Individual client focused advice
and product offering increasingly important
- A more capital efficient way to
finance growth in earnings
- Risk diverse revenue streams
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
2004 2005 2006
Net interest income Non-interest income
57% 43% 56% 44% 52% 48% EURm
7
Revenue growth in Nordea
6,573 Income 2006 Volumes, margins lending Savings: AM, Life and savings accounts Markets + 38 +224 +168 Income 2005
EURm
7,377 +175 Other +199 Gain from sale of IMB shares +804
8
4% 17%
– of which non collateralised lending
7% 12%
– SME lending
16% 15%
– CIB lending excl. Markets
6% 9% Deposits, total
14% 12% 8% 12% 15%
14%
YoY 16%
– CIB deposits excl. Markets
8%
– SME deposits
1% 2% 5%
6%
Q4oQ3
– Household deposits – Consumer lending* – Mortgage lending
Lending, total
Robust volume growth continues
*Retail consumer lending (collateralised + non-collateralised consumer lending)
9
Reduced cost base since 2002* – despite strong increase in business volumes
3,903 3,835 3,675 3,822 3,655 146 146 161 188 214 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 100.0 125.0 150.0 175.0 200.0 225.0 Operating expenses Total lending (right hand scale)
EURm EURbn
*Baseline adjusted for IFRS and net of acquisitions and divestments over the years. PostGirot included in 2002 figures
Cost unchanged despite lending growth of 50% and accumulated inflation of 13% in the period European average is annual cost increase of 8%
10
Cost/income ratio continues downwards
- Continued down to 52% in 2006
- Income up 12%
- Costs up 4%
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares C/I 53%
- Strong growth in revenues
combined with continuous focus on firm cost management
- Profitable organic growth in focus
64 60 56 52 63 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 %
11
Gap between income and cost development
Percentage points
- Reported gap of 8.0 percentage
points, excl. full impact from sale
- f IMB 5.4 percentage points
- Revenues up 12.2%
- Expenses up 4.2%
- Three years track record of
managing attractive gap between revenue and cost growth
6.6 8.0 5.4 6.9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2004 2005 2006
Gap excl. full impact from sale of IMB shares
12
Operating profit
EURm
2,745 3,820 3,048
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2004 2005 2006 YoY
- Up 25%
- Up 19% excl. gain from sale of IMB
shares
- Increased focus on profitable organic
growth and cross-selling
- Operating profit in Business Areas up
17% excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
- Strong performance in all Business
Areas
Retail up 18% CIB up 18% AM up 24%
13 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Reported
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB
EUR
Continuous increase in earnings per share
- rolling 12 months
14
Dividend up 40%
766 908 1,271 0.28 0.35 0.49
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2 4 2 5 2 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Total amount EURm Dividend per share EUR EURm EUR
15
Key growth areas – organic growth strategy continues to pay off
- Continue to leverage on strong position within long-term savings, eg Nordic
Private Banking and Life insurance
- Increase in AuM - total net inflow 2006 EUR 4.1bn
- Recruitment of personal bank advisors, private bank advisors and financial specialists
- Strengthening market position within consumer credits incl. cards
- Consumer lending up 17% (non collateralised), number of credit cards up 25%
- Harness Nordea’s leading position in capital markets – leveraging Nordea’s
customer base. Sale of Nordea Markets products to Business Areas up 38%
- Further position Nordea successfully in the Baltics, Poland and Russia
- Lending up 40% in the Baltics and Poland
Attract new and move existing customers into the most profitable segments
16
Gold and Private Banking customers are the engine for profitable growth
11% 16% 64% 9% Private Banking Gold Silver Bronze 8% 3% 8% 45%
Private Banking Gold Silver Bronze
- Approx. EUR 3.0bn of Retail
Banking’s income is generated from household customers
- Gold customers generate
two/thirds of the income
- Total revenues from household
customers increased by 9% during 2006
- Private Banking shows very
strong growth in income
Share of Retail Household income in 2006 Income growth during 2006
17
Strong success to date
140 66 161 72
- No. of customers
(m) Volume per customer (EUR'000) Business volumes (EUR bn)
2.1 2.2 5.7% 8.6% 14.8%
- Strong growth in business with
Gold customers generated by
Increase in number of customers Increase in volume per customer
- Growth in number of customers
is a combined effect of
Existing customers moving upward in
the segments
New Nordea customers
Volumes measured as the sum of total lending and savings
Strong growth in Gold segment Dec 2005 to Dec 2006
18
Strong revenue growth in all Retail corporate segments
55% 27% 18%
Small Medium Large
- Approx. EUR 2.0bn of Retail Banking
income is derived from corporate customers
- The customers in segment Large
account for half of the revenue
- In total revenues from corporate
customers increased by 6% 2006
Small
7% 6% 4%
Small Medium Large
Share of Retail Corporate income in 2006 Income growth during 2006
19
Continue to leverage on strong position within long- term savings – Private Banking
EURbn
- Strong asset growth in Nordic Private
Banking
Net inflow in Q4 13% annualised Result of roll-out of new common advisory
concepts, particularly in Norway and Sweden
- AuM up 20% YoY
29 31 33 34 36 37 39 42 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
European private banking Nordic private banking
20
Continue to leverage on strong position within long term savings – stepwise increase of premiums in Life
EURm
- Net written premiums up 22%
- Unit linked share of premiums 42%
- Increased penetration in the customer
base – successful cooperation between Life and Retail
- Nordea’s share of signed agreements in
Mandatory Company Pension (MCP) Norway approx 16%
- Market share of new written premiums
- n private market 8.4% in Sweden end
December
590 458 404 607 582 560 454 601 198 187 174 474 390 404 267 511
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Traditional insurance Unit linked
21
Accelerated market position within consumer lending and cards
EURbn YoY
- Consumer lending up 12%
- Non collateralised up 17%
- Approx. 500,000 new cards issued
- In total 5.6 million cards issued
Of which approx. 11% credit cards Number of credit cards up 25%
Q4oQ3
- Consumer lending up approx. 2%
- Growth strategy and penetration of
customer base is paying off
- Margins basically unchanged
adjusting for business mix
- Card commissions up 5%
13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.6
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Retail consumer lending
22
Increased cross-selling of Markets related products to SMEs
- Successful penetration
- Leveraging Nordea’s customer base
SME segment still under penetrated
- Focus on customer solutions rather
than product push
Strong concepts in risk management and
asset-liability management
Increased capabilities in derivatives
- Revenue increase driven by
Structured products Still strong and stable core business in F/X
and fixed income trading
202 270 373 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2004 2005 2006
Markets total revenue from Retail customers
EURm
23
Increased investments to capture growth opportunities in fast growing markets
Accelerated growth plan in Nordic markets, in particular Sweden
In line with Nordeas’ profitable organic growth strategy Recruitment of personal bank advisors
Investments in Private Banking
Private bank advisors and financial specialists
Increased growth ambitions in Poland with up to 150 new branches in
2-3 years. Aim to outperform market growth
Increased penetration in all customer segments but with emphasis on private customers and
SMEs
22 new branch offices were opened in 2006 - 9 in Q4
24
Outlook
Based on solid macroeconomic forecasts for the Nordic area, double
digit growth in business volumes is expected
Despite the current pressure on lending margins Nordea expects the
strong revenue growth to continue in 2007
Focus on risk-adjusted pricing combined with expected higher market
rates will positively affect the revenue generation in 2007
The quality of the credit portfolio remains strong, however lower
expected recoveries means that new provisions are expected to exceed reversals in 2007
The cost increase in 2007 is expected to be of the same magnitude as
in 2006
The gap between revenue and cost growth is for the full year 2007
expected to be 3-4 percentage points *
*Excl. the acquisition of Russian Orgresbank
25
Summary
Record result following reinforced organic growth strategy
Net profit up 39%
Gap between revenue and cost growth 5.4 percentage points when
excluding the full impact of IMB sale
Reported Return on equity 22.9%
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB 21.5%
Record dividend – EUR 0.49 per share Nordeas’ growth strategy is paying off
Increasing number of core customers Strong performance in long term savings – especially private banking Increased penetration among SME clients with Markets related products Lending volumes up from high level Growth strategies in Sweden and Poland & Baltics developing well
CFO Presentation
27
Income statement summary
25 3,048 3,820 Operating profit 39 2,269 3,153 Net profit 19 67 80 Equity method 122 143 318 Other income 137 257 Loan losses 4
- 34
2 8 12 35 7 6 Chg %
- 3,668
- 131
- 1,455
- 2,082
6,573 765 1,935 3,663 2005
- 86
Depreciation
- 1,485
Other expenses
- 3,822
Total operating expenses
- 2,251
Staff costs 7,377 Total operating income 1,036 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 2,074 Net fee and commission income 3,869 Net interest income 2006 EURm
28
Income statement summary
- 9
9
- 17
10 10
- 2
- 88
- 53
38 10 3 Chg % 748 1,063 967 Operating profit 506 872 876 Net profit 21 17 8 Equity method 29 217 26 Other income 7 55 82 Loan losses
- 956
- 31
- 393
- 532
1,696 184 529 933 Q4/05
- 928
- 23
- 355
- 550
1,934 224 497 979 Q3/06
- 19
Depreciation
- 391
Other expenses
- 1,016
Total operating expenses
- 606
Staff costs 1,899 Total operating income 310 Net gains/losses on items at fair value 549 Net fee and commission income 1,006 Net interest income Q4/06 EURm
29
Net interest income
EURm YoY
- Up 6%
- Volume growth compensated for
pressure on lending margins
- Total lending up 14%
Mortgage lending up 15% SME lending up 14%
- Increased contribution from deposits
Margins recovering following higher market rates
Q4oQ3
- Up 3%
- Total lending up 6%
- Household deposit margins improved
913 933 927 957 979 1,006 920
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
30
4 8 Treasury 8 34 Other, net 27 206 Total
- 7
- 164
Margin driven
62
- 226
64 264
328
YoY 10
- Deposit margins
- 17
3 19
22
Q4oQ3
- Lending margins
- Deposit volumes
- Lending volumes
Volume driven
Change in net interest income
EURm
31
Net commission income
EURm YoY
- Up 7%
- Savings commissions up 9%
- Asset management commissions up 9%
- Cards up 12%
Q4oQ3
- Up 10% - recovered in Q4 after
market turmoil effects in Q3
- Strong growth in savings related
commissions – up 19%
- Mainly from Asset Management
- Strong Life commissions growth following
significant premium growth and strong investment result
- Payment commissions up 5%
484 529 507 521 497 549 469
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
32
Breakdown of commission income - gross
281 306 319 338 335 325 301 359 162 175 177 177 171 183 187 197 82 90 87 98 88 86 87 91 51 48 32 59 41 45 36 49
40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Savings related Payments related Lending related Other
EURm
Of which Asset Mgmt Of which Cards
33
Customer business drives increase in net/gains losses
EURm
230 220 205
- 46
28 3 19 33 251 277
- 50
- 30
- 10
10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Business Areas Treasury and eliminations
YoY
- Up 35%
- Up 23% in Business Areas
- Strong customer demand for structured products
- Client driven FX and fixed income transactions
- Strong contribution from Group
Treasury
Q4oQ3
- Up 35% in Business Areas
- Strong improvement in Group
Treasury
34
44 277 80 6 93 98 Q4/06 8 205 51 7 72 75 Q3/06 7 220 61 4 68 87 Q2/06 10 8 Asset Mgmt 83 87 CIB
- 31
40 Group Treasury 230 265 BAs 69 101 Q1/06 70 67 Q4/05 Life Retail Net/gains losses, EURm
Increased revenues from net/gains losses in Business areas
35
Total operating income
EURm YoY
- Up 12%
- Increased focus on top line growth
- Steady increase in net interest income
- Volume growth more than compensating for lending
margin pressure.
- Improved deposit margins
- Commission driven by savings related
commissions
- Net/gains losses – strong increase in
customer driven financial transactions
Q4oQ3
- Strong increase when adjusting for IMB
- Accelerating business momentum in all
Business Areas
1,601 1,759 1,785 1,934 1,899 1,734 1,696
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
36
Expenses
EURm YoY
- Costs up 4%
- Increases following
- Investments in growth areas
- Number of FTEs increases by approx 300 – mainly
P&B, Life and Growth plan Sweden
- General wage increase approx 3.5%
- Variable salaries and profit sharing
- Approx 3% when excluding variable
salaries and profit sharing
Q4oQ3
- Up 9% following strong performance
and high business activity
520 543 552 550 606 345 393 367 372 355 391 31 31 23 21 23 19 532
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Staff costs Other expenses Depreciation
933 896 1,016 928 956 945
37
Well controlled expense growth 2006
4.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Reported
- Excl. Variable
salaries and profit sharing
- Excl. Variable
salaries, profit sharing and investments in growth areas
- Cost increase driven by
decision to invest in profitable growth areas
- Cost management well
established
38
Strong result and investments explains cost increase
3,668 Expenses 2006 Other Increase in variable salaries and profit sharing +46 +48 Expenses 2005 EURm 3,822 Investments in areas like Growth Plan Sweden, Cards, Life, Private Banking Investments in growth areas* +60 +154
39
Staff costs
2,082 Staff costs 2006 Wage increases Higher variable salaries and profit sharing Increase in FTEs, net +73 +19 +29 Staff costs 2005
EURm
2,251
- No. of recruited
FTEs: approx. 2,400
- No. of FTEs that
has left: approx. 2,100
Training and other staff related expenses +48 +169
40
Number of FTEs
- Increased number of sales related employees and falling number of employees in
processing and staff units
- Reduction of approx. 150 in Q4 following efficiency gains and outsourcing
28,930 29,052 29,201 29,396 29,249
4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 +256 1.502 1.758
- f which P&B
- 268
6,238 5,972 Group Functions +585 22,692 23,277 BAs +319 28,930 29,249 Total
- 24
- 242
+93 +274 +218 Chg YoY 1,192 5,046 2,001 3,331 17,360 Q4/05 1,168 4,804 2,094 3,605 17,578 Q4/06 Group Staffs CIB GPT AM & Life Retail FTEs
41
Loan losses
EURm YoY
- Positive net loan losses reflecting low
new provisions coupled with recoveries maintained at a high level
- Credit quality remains strong in all
markets
Q4oQ3
- Continued flow of recoveries and low
new provisions
- Large movements in gross provisions
Changes in group-wise provisions
- 23
- 31
- 89
- 55
- 82
- 6
- 7
- 101
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
42
0.18 74 374
- 1,118
1,492 Q4/06 0.21 74 416
- 1,188
1,604 Q3/06 0.20 76 405
- 1,270
1,675 Q2/06 0.18 80 341
- 1,371
1,712 Q1/06 0.18 81 340
- 1,480
1,819 Q4/05 Reserves Reserves/impaired loans, gross,% Impaired loans, net/lending,% Impaired loans, net Impaired loans, gross
- EURm. End of period
Impaired loans
- Net impaired loans as per cent of total lending: 18bp
43
- 416
- 354
Allowances for collectively assessed loans 59% 60% Total allowances / Impaired loans, gross individually assessed 0.78% 0.52% Impaired loans, net / lending (%) 42% 41% Allowances, individually assessed / Impaired loans, gross, 1,462 1,104 Impaired loans, net, individually assessed
- 1,064
- 764
Allowances for individually assessed loans 1,868 31 Dec 2006 2,526 31 Dec 2005 Impaired loans, gross, individually assessed EURm
New baseline impaired loans
- Nordea has of end of December 2006 changed the definition of impaired but
performing loans. The change increases the size of impaired loans but leaving the allowances unchanged
44
Operating profit
EURm
688 728 748 858 932 1,063 967 884 864
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
YoY
- Up 25%
- Up 19% excl. gain from sale of IMB
shares
- Operating profit in BAs up 17% excl.
gain from sale of IMB shares
- Increased focus on profitable organic
growth and cross-selling
- Strong performance in all Business
areas
- Retail up 18%
- CIB up 18%
- AM up 24%
Q4oQ3
- Up 29%
- 6% gap between revenue and cost
growth in Q4
45
Net profit
EURm YoY
- Up 39%
- Operating profit up 25%
- Strong gap between revenue and cost
growth combined with low tax rate
- Effective tax rate 19% (excl tax-free
gain from IMB) following the revaluation of the deferred tax asset in Finland
Q4oQ3
- Up 30% excl. gain from sale of IMB
shares
563 665 740 872 876 506 673 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
46
Return on equity
%
- Strong RoE - 22.9%
21.5% excl. gain from sale of IMB
- At top level among Nordic peers
16.9 22.9 18.0 21.5 5 10 15 20 25 2004 2005 2006
- Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
47
Strong growth also in risk-adjusted EPS
0.86 0.67 1.21 0.81 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Reported EPS, EUR EPS, risk adjusted, EUR 2005 2006
48
Risk-weighted assets (RWA)
EURbn YoY
- RWA up 9%
Total lending up 14%
Q4oQ3
- RWA unchanged
- Nordeas’ model to calculate VaR has
been approved by FSA:s
Decreased RWA with approx. EUR 7bn
153 159 162 169 174 180 185 185
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
49
Capital position
%
- Tier 1 ratio 7.1%
- Profitable volume growth
- Total capital ratio at 9.8%
7.0 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.1 6.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
50
Return on risk weighted assets, rolling 4 quarters
153 159 162 169 174 180 185 185 1.26 1.42 1.45 1.41 1.47 1.44 1.46 1.62 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
RWA Return on RWA
EURbn %
*
* Excl. Gain from sale of IMB shares ** Reported RWA of EUR 185bn is after EUR 7bn reduction of RWA following new models for calculating market risks 7
192**
51
18.2 14.8 9.6
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Capital base Regulatory Capital Economic Capital (EURbn - End of year 2006)
Continuous strive for capital efficiency
How much capital must Nordea have? How much capital should Nordea have? How much capital does Nordea have?
Tier 1+Tier2 (8% of RWA)
Tier 1 13.1
Tier 2 5.1
52
Tier 1 capital
18.2 13.1 14.5 10.5 13.3 9.6 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 EUR bn
Nordea expects to have excess capital after full implementation of Basel II
185 148 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2006 2006* EUR bn Capital base
(Tier 1+ Tier 2)
Expected reduction RWA Pillar 1; approx. 30% Expected reduction RWA incl Pillar 2;
- approx. 20%
* Pro-forma Basel II
9.8% 9.8% 9.0% 7.1% 7.1% 6.5%
20% reduction in RWA Implications for capital ratios
2006 2006* 2006* 2006 2006* 2006*
53
Nordea’s new financial targets
Long term financial targets Target TSR (%) In the top quartile of European peer group Risk adjusted profit (EUR m) In line with top Nordic peers RoE (%) Double in 7 years Capital structure policy Policy Dividend payout-ratio > 40% of net profit Tier 1 capital ratio > 6.5%
54
2,107 819 373 3,822
- 256
7,377 Baseline 2006 Risk adjusted profit standard tax expected losses total operating expenses non recurring items* Total income EURm
Risk adjusted profit
- Increased by 18% in 2006
* Includes sales gain and contribution under equity method from IMB and sales gain from Asiakastieto
Business trends
56
Total lending
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Corporate Housing loans Other loans Public sector
EURbn
148 146 182 149 147 147 156 155 170 161 175 189 199 191 201 214
57
Household mortgages, volumes and margins
44.3 45.7 48.2 48.9 50.0 52.6 54.5 56.3 57.7 60.4 62.6 64.5 65.8 68.5 70.6 74.4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
EURbn %
58
Retail consumer lending, volumes and margins
12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.8
EURbn %
59
Lending to corporates (SME), volumes and margins
57.3 57.3 57.4 56.7 56.3 58.1 58.5 61.0 64.0 65.3 67.9 70.0 70.9 73.2 73.4 78.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
EURbn %
60
CIB lending, volumes and margins*
21.7 22.6 21.4 18.4 18.1 20.3 19.0 18.0 21.4 21.7 20.8 21.2 22.6 23.3 22.3 23.6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
61
Total deposits
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Of which household deposits
EURbn
97 98 92 96 93 91 95 105 105 108 106 116 119 113 119 127
62
Retail deposits, households, volumes and margins
40.2 40.7 41.7 41.3 40.4 42.3 42.9 43.8 44.1 45.7 46.9 47.0 47.1 49.6 50.1 50.7 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
EURbn %
63
Structural Interest Income Risk (SIIR)
- 220
206 Q4/06
- 175
154 Q4/05
- 165
174 Q3/06 Decreasing market rates, 100bp Increasing market rates, 100bp EURm, annualised effect on NII*
*Approx. end of period SIIR is defined as the effect on net interest income (NII) in the next 12 months if market rates change by one percentage point. Figures are asymmetrical as interest rates on deposits from customers cannot be reduced below 0%. Figures are based on maturity and repricing structure, and the effect going forward will be subject to management decisions and the competitive situation in the market.
- Increased SIIR following growth in assets and liabilities in Q4. Increased non-
interest bearing liabilities
- Reduced duration in ALM programme
64
Retail deposits, SME, volumes and margins
26.2 26.3 26.7 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.8 30.5 29.4 30.1 31.5 33.4 32.6 34.8 34.7 37.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
EURbn %
65
CIB, deposits, volumes and margins*
14.4 15.4 13.3 15.2 14.9 17.9 18.0 21.0 23.2 20.4 18.5 22.1 21.2 22.3 21.8 25.0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
EURbn % * Excl. Markets, Poland and Baltics
66
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Assets under management
EURbn YoY
- Up 9%
- Strong growth in Nordic Private
Banking up 23%
- Asset growth from well
diversified sales platforms
Q4oQ3
- Favourable equity markets
- Net outflow due to one single
mandate lost – strong underlying trend
158 148 153 154 161
67
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q4/06 Adjusted Nordic Retail funds European Fund Distribution Nordic Private Banking International Wealth Management Institutional clients Life & Pension
Net inflows
EURbn
- Net inflow in 2006 EUR 4.1bn
Strong increase in Nordic Private
Banking, Institutional clients and Life
- Net outflow from Retail funds in
Q4 of EUR 6.5bn
In the fourth quarter a mandate of
6.4bn was withdrawn, following a new administrative set-up decided by the client.
- Net inflow in Q4 within Nordic
Private Banking and Institutional clients
- Net inflow for European Fund
distribution
- Adjusted net inflow in Q4
EUR 2bn
1.8 0.9 3.4 3.3
- 4.4
2.0
68
Retail profit before loan losses
EURm
- YoY profit up 13%
Key product areas showing double digit volume
growth
Strong improvement in result from deposits Strong revenue growth from gold customers
- Plan to capture untapped potential in
Sweden proceeding well
556 600 583 585 577 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
24 55 Q4/05 26 53 FY 2006 26 55 Q4/06 RaRoCar, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
69
CIB profit before loan losses
EURm
- YoY profit up 21%, excl gain from sale
- f IMB
- High activity in all areas
- Accelerated growth plan for Poland
- utlined
144 160 145 159 169 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
19 51 Q4/05 22* 49* FY 2006 29 50 Q4/06 RaRoCar, % C/I ratio, % Key ratios
*
*Excl. gain from sale of IMB shares
70
Asset Management product result
EURm
- YoY product result up 23%
Up 46% Q4oQ3
- Double digit income growth
- Stronger sales of newly launched
products with better margins
- Higher transaction and performance
fees
- Positive trend within institutional
asset management
96 85 80 117 93 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
151 48 Q4/05 161 46 Q4/06 AuM, EURbn C/I ratio, % Key ratios
71
Life insurance, product result
EURm
- Net written premiums up 22%
Up 54% in Q4
- Unit link premiums up 52%
Accounting for 42% of total premiums
- Fee based business model continues
to deliver
- Strong investment result in Q4
- Nordea Life and Pension became the
largest insurance company in the Nordic market in 2006, measured by premiums
56 52 61 74 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
16.5 1.6 Q4/05 22.8 2.3 Q4/06 Financial buffers, % Inv return, % Key ratios
72
Group Treasury, operating profit
- 23
15 12 7 39 26 34 21 32 42
- 25
- 5
15 35 55 75 95 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Group Investment Group Funding
EURm
- Strong improvements for both Group
Investment and Group Funding
- Operating profit EUR 203m -more
than a doubling compared to 2005
Supported by successful positions in the
money and capital markets
- Gross investment returns at 3.98%,
well above return target
73
Summary
Record result following reinforced organic growth strategy
Net profit up 39%
Gap between revenue and cost growth 5.4 percentage points when
excluding the full impact of IMB sale
Reported Return on equity 22.9%
RoE excl. gain from sale of IMB 21.5%
Record dividend – EUR 0.49 per share Nordeas’ growth strategy is paying off
Increasing number of core customers Strong performance in long term savings – especially private banking Increased penetration among SME clients with Markets related products Lending volumes up from high level Growth strategies in Sweden and Poland & Baltics developing well
Facts & figures
75
Facts & Figures, content
Credit quality
Page 76
Economic capital
Page 86
Business areas
Page 89
Balance sheet
Page 118
Market shares
Page 121
Appendix
Page 128
Credit quality
77
Loan portfolio by customer category*
85 84 82 78 79 83 80 84 91 97 100 101 105 105 113 44 46 48 49 50 53 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 68 71 74 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 93
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q3/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Corporate lending Housing loans Other loans
EURbn * Excluding public sector
78
Public sector 2.1% Household customers 44.9% Companies 53.0% Household customers 45.1% Public sector 1.9% Companies 53.0%
End Q4/05, EUR 188.5bn End Q4/06, EUR 214.0bn
Loan portfolio by customer group
79
Housing loans 77.2% Other loans 22.8%
Lending to household customers
End of Q4/06 EUR 96.4bn
- Other loans comprise
- consumer credits
- investment credits
- car financing
- verdraft facilities
- credit cards
- home equity credits
80
Other 9% Real estate 27% Construction 3% Agriculture & Fishing 6%
- Transp. &
Communication 5% Finance 11% Renting,Consulting and other services 11% Manufacturing 13% Commerce and services 10% Shipping & Offshore 5%
Lending to companies by industry
End of Q4/06 EUR 113.5bn
81
214.0 5.7 6.4 14.2 12.5 12.7 15.0 11.1 5.9 3.4 30.7 96.4 Q4/06 201.1 5.3 6.1 13.7 12.5 8.4 14.6 10.8 5.9 3.3 28.6 91.9 Q3/06 198.8 5.2 5.8 14.5 12.0 9.6 14.5 10.4 5.8 3.6 28.0 89.4 Q2/06 190.7 5.4 5.7 15.1 10.4 8.7 14.0 9.9 5.8 2.9 26.8 86.0 Q1/06 188.4 5.3 5.8 14.6 9.6 10.5 13.4 9.9 5.6 2.9 26.2 84.6 Q4/05 Total Shipping & Offshore Agriculture & Fishing Other companies/public sector Renting, Consulting and other services Finance Manufacturing Trade and services Transport, communication Construction Real estate Household customers EURbn
Loan portfolio in figures
82
EU countries other 3.7% USA 0.7% Asia 1.0% Latin America 0.6% Other non OECD 0.3% Other OECD 0.6% Slice 8 0.0% Other 6.9% Nordic countries and P&B 93.1%
Lending by geographical area
End of Q4/06 EUR 214.0bn
Nordic countries and P&B, EURbn
- Sweden
59.2
- Denmark
58.1
- Finland
42.4
- Norway
34.7
- P&B
4.8
83
3 2 5 Public sector 10 7 17 Shipping & Offshore 13 25 38 Construction 13 37 50 Transport, communication 11 51 62 Agriculture & Fishing 21 126 147 Renting, Consulting and other services 29 136 165 Other companies 44 107 151 Trade and services 43 348 391 Manufacturing 1,098 20 65 176 Provisions 1,492 25 94 348 Gross 394 5 29 172 Net Total Finance Real estate Household customers
- EURm. End of Q4/06
Impaired loans
84
8 8 Credit Institutions 2 1 3 Public sector 19 7 26 Shipping & Offshore 27 21 48 Construction 36 27 63 Transport, communication 22 21 43 Agriculture & Fishing 76 113 189 Renting, Consulting and other services 78 49 127 Other companies 106 107 213 Trade and services 192 213 405 Manufacturing 757 20 57 121 Provisions 1,868 42 129 572 Gross 1,103 22 72 451 Net Total Finance Real estate Household customers
- EURm. End of Q4/06
New baseline impaired loans
85
Loan losses
EURm 192 156 92 58 86
- 215
- 163
- 123
- 147
- 140
- 23
- 7
- 31
- 89
- 54
299
- 381
- 82
- 420
- 370
- 320
- 270
- 220
- 170
- 120
- 70
- 20
30 80 130 180 230 280 330 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Gross Reversals Net
YoY
- Positive net loan losses reflecting low
new provisions coupled with recoveries at a high level
- Credit quality remains strong in all
markets
Q4oQ3
- High recoveries in Q4, partly related
to changes in group-wise provisions. Nordea Bank Denmark has restated EUR 60m in 2005 following Danish FSA decision - effect for Nordea Group in Q4 2006
Economic capital
87
Economic capital (EC)
EURbn 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06
1,035 Life 1,962 CIB 168 Asset Mgmt 418 126 Treasury GPT 1 Other 5,890 Retail Banking 9,600 Q4/06 Total EC per business area (EURm)
88
Economic capital – distribution
End of Q4/06
Life risk 1% Market risk 15% Operational risk 9% Business risk 12% Credit risk 63% Other 1% CIB 21% Treasury 4% Asset Mgmt & Life 12% Retail 61%
Retail Banking
90
Retail Banking lending and deposit volumes
26.0 14.7 25.8 21.7 Q4/06 23.9 14.3 25.0 21.6 Q3/06 23.9 14.2 25.0 21.4 Q2/06 11.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 Norway 21.8 24.1 20.5 Q1/06 22.4 24.8 20.3 Q4/05 21.3 23.9 20.6 Q3/05 20.8 23.4 18.1 Q1/05 20.6 24.0 19.3 Q2/05 Denmark Sweden Finland Deposits, EURbn 51.1 28.8 39.5 52.5 Q4/06 48.8 27.4 38.6 48.7 Q3/06 49.1 26.8 37.7 47.5 Q2/06 21.8 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 Norway 46.5 36.4 45.5 Q1/06 46.1 35.6 45.1 Q4/05 45.2 34.8 43.2 Q3/05 43.3 33.8 41.3 Q2/05 44.0 33.0 38.5 Q1/05 Denmark Sweden Finland Lending, EURbn
91
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.0 17.2 18.3 Q4/06 4.3 16.5 17.7 Q3/06 4.2 16.0 17.5 Q2/06 4.0 15.5 16.9 Q1/06 3.9 15.2 16.4 Q4/05 3.8 14.8 16.2 Q3/05 3.7 13.6 15.7 Q1/05 3.8 14.2 15.9 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Households mortgages Finland, EURbn 6.5 22.5 21.9 Q4/06 6.3 21.8 19.1 Q3/06 6.0 20.8 18.2 Q2/06 5.8 20.3 18.2 Q1/06 5.8 19.6 18.1 Q4/05 5.8 18.8 17.0 Q3/05 5.5 17.2 14.7 Q1/05 5.7 17.9 16.1 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Denmark, EURbn
92
Retail Banking breakdown of lending
4.1 20.5 24.9 Q4/06 3.7 19.5 24.0 Q3/06 3.6 19.2 24.8 Q2/06 3.4 18.3 23.5 Q1/06 3.4 18.0 23.5 Q4/05 3.3 17.4 23.2 Q3/05 3.3 16.6 22.9 Q1/05 3.3 16.6 22.2 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Sweden, EURbn 1.0 14.7 13.3 Q4/06 1.0 14.0 12.7 Q3/06 1.0 13.3 12.7 Q2/06 0.9 12.8 12.3 Q1/06 0.9 12.4 12.0 Q4/05 0.8 11.9 11.5 Q3/05 0.7 10.5 10.6 Q1/05 0.8 11.4 11.1 Q2/05 Corporate Consumer lending Household mortgages Norway, EURbn
93
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
7.9 9.9 7.9 Q4/06 7.7 9.9 7.4 Q3/06 7.5 10.1 7.4 Q2/06 7.2 9.9 7.0 Q1/06 7.1 10.4 7.2 Q4/05 6.6 10.4 7.0 Q3/05 6.5 9.9 6.9 Q1/05 6.6 10.3 7.2 Q2/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Finland, EURbn 10.0 3.4 8.3 Q4/06 9.9 3.3 8.3 Q3/06 9.9 3.4 8.0 Q2/06 9.5 3.1 7.8 Q1/06 9.4 3.2 7.8 Q4/05 9.5 3.1 8.0 Q3/05 9.0 3.1 7.2 Q2/05 8.4 2.9 6.8 Q1/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Denmark, EURbn
94
Retail Banking breakdown of deposits
7.8 5.8 12.5 Q4/06 7.8 5.5 10.6 Q3/06 7.4 5.4 11.1 Q2/06 6.7 5.0 10.1 Q1/06 6.3 5.0 11.0 Q4/05 6.8 5.0 9.6 Q3/05 6.4 4.9 9.5 Q1/05 6.5 4.8 9.4 Q2/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Sweden, EURbn 3.9 2.0 8.8 Q4/06 3.8 2.1 8.3 Q3/06 3.7 2.2 8.3 Q2/06 3.7 2.0 7.7 Q1/06 3.7 1.8 7.4 Q4/05 3.9 1.7 6.9 Q3/05 3.8 1.7 6.3 Q2/05 3.6 1.4 6.2 Q1/05 Corporate Households, savings accounts Households, current accounts Norway, EURbn
95
Retail Banking margins
1.74
- 1. 06
3.46 0.57 0.92 Q4/06 1.69 1.03 3.53 0.63 0.95 Q3/06 1.66 1.02 3.61 0.70 0.98 Q2/06 0.92 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.75 Mortgages, households 4.07 4.04 3.81 3.74 3.66 Consumer loans, households 1.62 1.01 1.00 Q1/06 1.55 1.05 1.04 Q4/05 1.56 1.06 1.06 Q3/05 1.55 0.86 1.13 Q1/05 1.53 1.06 1.09 Q2/05 Lending to SME’s Deposits, households Deposits, SME’s %
Payments & transactions
97
E-banking customers, all customers
E-banking customers
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Feb-00 June- Oct-00 Feb-01 June- Oct-01 Feb-02 June-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-06 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Mill.
E-banking payments
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Q1/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Mill.
98
Cards, all customers
Issued debit and credit cards
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-01 May-01 Sept-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sept-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06
Debit cards Credit cards
Mill.
Card payments
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06
Mill.
99
Payment transactions, households
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06
Manual transactions Payment ATMs Card payments Cash withdrawal ATMs Direct debit Netbank payments
100
Payment transactions, households
1,286 168.3 109.3 164.8 700.4 16.3 108.9 2006 78.2 97.6 117.3 139.3 155.7 E-banking payments 898 961 1,026 1,109 1,187 Total 78.5 207.2 333.5 34.3 166.2 2001 81.5 204.4 395.5 31.7 150.6 2002 86.1 197.4 459.9 27.1 137.7 2003 527.8 603.6 Card payments 23.6 19.7 Payterminals 129.1 124.6 Manual transactions 190.4 181.7 Cash withdrawal ATM 101.2 2005 98.5 2004 Direct debit Mill.
Corporate and Institutional Banking
102
CIB lending and deposit volumes and margins
0,86 36,4 4,6 9,4 1,5 12,7 Q4/06 0.83 31.1 3.8 9.1 1.3 12.0 Q3/06 0.87 32.3 3.7 9.1 1.5 12.7 Q2/06 0.93 32.2 3.4 8.6 2.0 12.0 Q1/06 0.96 32.4 3.3 8.5 1.7 11.1 Q4/05 0.86 32.5 2.5 7.7 2.0 12.0 Q2/05 0.91 32.2 2.8 8.1 1.8 10.9 Q3/05 30.9 Total* 2.3 Poland and Baltic 12.8 Corporate Banking Division 0.94 6.5 2.0 Q1/05 International and Shipping Division Financial Institutions Division Lending, EURbn Margins**, % * Incl. Markets volumes ** Excl. Markets and Poland & Baltics 0,34 29,3 2,3 4,3 13,0 7,8 Q4/06 0.38 25.1 2.0 3.8 11.3 6.7 Q3/06 0.37 26.4 1.9 4.5 10.3 7.5 Q2/06 0.37 25.7 1.8 4.3 10.4 6.6 Q1/06 0.40 26.8 1.8 4.3 10.9 7.0 Q4/05 0.40 24.7 1.4 3.6 8.8 8.0 Q2/05 0.39 23.3 1.5 3.6 8.6 6.3 Q3/05 26.7 Total* 1.3 Poland and Baltic 8.9 Corporate Banking Division 0.37 3.2 11.1 Q1/05 International and Shipping Division Financial Institutions Division Deposits, EURbn Margins**,%
103
Nordea operations in Poland and the Baltic countries
12** 5 1 5 3 Operating profit (Q4), EURm 1.1 % 2.8 % 3.4 % 5.8 % Market share, deposits, % 18 1.7 % 1,230 1,764 2,117 887 45 363,650 Poland 7 5 3 Country position, overall 1,775 195 364 316 Number of FTEs 90 11 17 17 Branches/salespoints 1,232,500* 41,600 43,950 54,300 Customers 5,994 943 1,484 1,450 Total assets, EURm 7.8 % 375 1,418 Latvia 9.4 % 452 1,281 Estonia 6.2 % 255 812 Lithuania Market share, lending, % 2,311 Deposits & Funds, EURm 5,276 Commitments***, EURm Total End of Q4/06
* Incl. Polish Life customers *’ Difference compared to summary of country result is explained by Nordic expenses *** Includes guarantees
Asset Management & Life Insurance
105
* All funds targeted at Nordic Retail segment. ** Includes EUR 4.9bn in pension pools products
Breakdown of AuM by market and channels
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Europe North America Retail funds*
(sold through
- wn distribution)
Fund sales through third-parties Private Banking Institutional customers Total by market Q2/06 EURbn 161.1 37.6 12.0 7.1 1.8 19.3
- 5.7
- 17.9
15.9 2.2 9.2
- 11.5
4.6 3.8 3.0 2.7 0.6 18.6** 8.9** 5.0**
- 6.4
3.9** 1.2 59.9 36.5 12.8 32.6 18.8 0.6 26.2 51.6 5.7 40.1 Life & Pensions
106
Asset Management – margins*
Bps Q4oQ3
- Income margin up 13bp,
Mainly due to high performance fee, based
- n very good value adding performance
- Operating expenses margin in line
with last quarter
- Result margin record high
- Unchanged asset mix
63 71 70 66 64 77
- 20
- 22
- 22
- 21
- 21
- 23
30 37 35 32 30 43
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Income margin Operating expenses margin Result margin
*Margins calculated using average AuM for Asset Management Activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities. In Q3 these assets were EUR 106.8bn. Volumes used for calculating margins have been restated compared to previously reported figures. Non-income generating mandates of EUR 9bn have been deducted.
107
Nordic fixed income 45% Int'l. equities 28% Nordic equities 14% Int'l. fixed income 13% Nordic fixed income 44% Int'l. equities 28% Nordic equities 15% Int'l. fixed income 13%
Asset structure*
Q4/06
*Average AuM for Asset Management activities excl. Nordic Private Banking activities, in Q3 this was EUR 106.8bn
Q4/05
108
European fund distribution
- 1,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q1/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q3/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Inflow AuM
EURbn
109
Life - breaking out profit drivers
- Fee based on size of life provisions in “with profit” companies – DK, FI
- Profit-sharing from the Norwegian business (existing model, change pending)
- 25% of surplus/deficit from cost result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- 25% of surplus/deficit from risk result in DK, 100% from FI and SE
- Profit-/loss-sharing in Norway
- Investment return from separated shareholders’ equity (DK, SE)
- Health and accident result, holding company result etc.
- Net unit-linked result including unit-linked cost/risk result
- Commissions paid to Retail Banking less distribution cost in Retail Banking
Fee contribution Contribution from cost result Contribution from risk result
- Inv. return on
shareholders’ equity Other profits Unit-linked Retail commission and distribution cost
110
Life - profit drivers
511 602 1.112 37 89
- 5
10 83 4 13 8
- 4
61 Q4/06 267 454 720 37 61
- 4
14 51 5 6 6 34 Q3/06 404 560 964 35 52
- 4
13 43 5 1 6
- 4
35 Q2/06 390 582 972 30 56
- 4
13 47 5 7
- 1
36 Q1/06 474 607 1,081 29 56
- 3
10 49 6 1 10
- 1
33 Q4/05 Of which income within Retail Key figures Premiums written, net of reinsurance Here of from Traditional business Here of from Unit-linked business Total Profit Unit linked Traditional insurance Other profits Estimated distribution cost in Retail
- Inv. return on Shareholders Equity
Total Profit Traditional Total product result Contribution from risk result Contribution from cost result Fee contribution/profit sharing EURm
111
Life – net written premiums by market
1.112 150 191 238 205 328 Q4/06 720 97 95 151 134 244 Q3/06 964 124 153 221 205 262 Q2/06 254 151 Sweden 111 107 Other 1,081 972 Total 147 236 Norway 296 237 Denmark 273 241 Finland Q4/05 Q1/06 EURm
112
Life, investments
EURbn
- Equities
predominantly listed equities 1/3 Nordic, 2/3 international
- Bonds
¾ Nordic issuers primarily govmn’t & mortgage inst.
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06
Equities Real Estate Alternative investments Bonds Unit linked
29,9 30,5 30,3 31,1 32,5
113
Life - asset allocation
21 22 31.1 32.5 Total 7 19 22 29 Q4/06 Equities, % 6 17 21 27 Q3/06 3.4 4.4 8.3 14.0 Q3/06 Q4/06 3.7 Sweden 4.7 Norway 8.6 Finland 14.4 Denmark Total, EURbn
114
Life - solvency situation
End of Q4/06 215 79 148 69 Sweden** 308 490 725 235 Finland 123 120 634 515 Denmark 217 181 335 154 Norway* Solvency in % of requirement Solvency buffer Actual solvency Required solvency EURm
* Excluding unit linked company ** Nordea Life Sweden I
115
Life – solvency sensitivity
End of Q4/06 215 217 308 123 Solvency in % of requirement 189 217 231 124 Equities drop 12% 214 217 333 121 Interest rates down 50bp 217 Norway 179 Sweden 124 Denmark Finland 291 Interest rates up 50bp
116
Life – financial buffers
10.4 12.4 6.4 6.8 13.1 Q4/06 2,277 210 232 361 1,474 Q4/06 8.3 139 Sweden
% of total provisions EURm
8.7 1,901 Total 5.3 286 Finland 11.7 1,318 Denmark 4.6 157 Norway Q3/06 Q3/06
117
Life – buffers in different scenarios
End of Q4/06
EURm
210 232 361 1,474 Financial buffers, actual 192 140 184 1,157 Equities drop 12% 151 235 419 1,394 Interest rates down 50bp 230 Norway 259 Sweden 1,520 Denmark Finland 323 Interest rates up 50bp
Balance sheet
119
Balance sheet
325,549 12,960 21,386 7,822 28,602 82,609 26,830 115,550 29,790 325,549 69,355 28,876 188,460 31,578 7,095 31 Dec 2005 15,322 Total equity 346,890 Total assets 32,288 Deposits by credit institutions 126,452 Deposits and borrowings from the public 31,041 Liabilities to policyholders 83,417 Debt securities in issue 346,890 25,254 8,177 24,939 75,228 24,207 213,985 26,792 6,678 29 Dec 2006 Other liabilities Other assets Derivatives Subordintated liabilities Loans and receivables to credit institutions Derivatives Loans and receivables to the public Total liabilites and equity Treasury bills and other eligible bills EURm
120
Capital base
185,398 9,069 176,329 9.8% 18,159
- 179
- 1,535
684 6,726 7.1% 13,147
- 1,443
1,770
- 369
1,458 15,271 Q4/06 185,052 16,192 168,860 9.5% 17,613
- 173
- 1,535
812 6,617 6.9% 12,704
- 1,001
- 1,765
- 275
1,457 14,288 Q3/06 180,382 15,252 165,130 9.3% 16,784
- 290
- 1,535
812 6,410 6.8% 12,199
- 634
- 1,800
- 304
1,458 13,479 Q2/06 173,618 16,312 157,306 9.4% 16,284
- 276
- 1,537
827 6,376 6.8% 11,721
- 1,210
- 1,795
- 308
1,462 13,572 Q1/06 15,545 RWA market risk
- 279
Deductions for other investments 15,486 Total capital base 9.2% Total capital ratio 837
- of which perpetual subordinated loans
169,028 153,483
- 1,535
5,862 6.8% 11,438
- 831
- 1,794
- 327
1,472 12,918 Q4/05 RWA credit risk Tier 1 capital Tier 1 capital ratio Tier 2 capital Deductions for investments in ins. companies Hybrid capital loans Goodwill Other items net Deferred tax assets Total RWA Core equity EURm
Market shares
122
Market position in Nordic markets
9.6% 11.2% 30.8% 14.6%
- consumer lending
4.6% 10.1% 27.7% 15.2% Life & Pensions (end June) 13.9% 16.3% 35.8% 19.7%
- lending
21.1% 17.2% 37.9% 21.8%
- deposits
17.8% 8.3% 32.9% 21.5%
- deposits
15.5% 12.6% 31.2% 15.3%
- mortgage lending
1.8% 14.0% Sweden 2.8% 8.3% Norway 3.8% 26.3% Finland 7.7% 19.0% Denmark Corporate customers Brokerage (Jan 2007) Investment funds Personal customers Market shares
Statistics mainly from November -December 2006 * Based on estimates ** Please note that KLP is excluded from the calculations
* **
123
Personal customer deposits - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nov-05 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
124
Corporate deposits - market volume & share
5 10 15 20 25 30
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 100 200 300 400
N
- v
- 3
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
J u l
- 6
S e p
- 6
N
- v
- 6
14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 100 200 300 400 500
Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share 0.000 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000
Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
125
Personal customer lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 100 200 300 400 500
Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
N
- v
- 3
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
J u l
- 6
S e p
- 6
N
- v
- 6
8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 500
Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
126
Mortgage lending households - market volume & share
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 200 400 600 800 1000
N
- v
- 3
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
J u l
- 6
S e p
- 6
N
- v
- 6
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 10 20 30 40 50 60
Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35%
127
Corporate lending - market volume & share
10 20 30 40 50
D e c
- 4
F e b
- 5
A p r
- 5
J u n
- 5
A u g
- 5
O c t
- 5
D e c
- 5
F e b
- 6
A p r
- 6
J u n
- 6
A u g
- 6
O c t
- 6
D e c
- 6
32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250
Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-06 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
N
- v
- 3
J a n
- 4
M a r
- 4
M a y
- 4
J u l
- 4
S e p
- 4
N
- v
- 4
J a n
- 5
M a r
- 5
M a y
- 5
J u l
- 5
S e p
- 5
N
- v
- 5
J a n
- 6
M a r
- 6
M a y
- 6
J u l
- 6
S e p
- 6
N
- v
- 6
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
EURbn
Finland
DKKbn
Denmark
SEKbn
Sweden
NOKbn
Norway
Market volume Market share
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
Appendix
129
Ratings
AA AA AA AA Long R-1 (high) R-1 (high) R-1 (high) R-1 (high) Short DBRS AA- F1+ AA- A-1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank AB A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ A-1+ Short S&P AAA AAA AA- AA- AA- Long Long Short Long Short A1 P-1 Norgeskreditt Aaa Nordea Kredit Aaa Nordea Hypotek* AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank N AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank F AA- F1+ Aa3 P-1 Nordea Bank D Fitch Moody’s
*Covered bond rating
130
32.3
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
SHB Commerzbank ABN AMRO Danske Bank RBOS HBOS Unicredito Swedbank KBC Barclays Lloyds Erste Bank BNP DnB Allied Irish Banks Hypovereinsbank Societe General Nordea SEB Bank of Ireland
%
Top quartile
Total shareholder return (TSR) Ytd 2006 (1/1 2006 – 29/12 2006)
131
Largest registered shareholders, year end 2006
0.5 0.4 % 9.7 Abu Dhabi
- 0.3
0.4 % 9.7 Skandia Funds 0.8 0.5 % 12.3 Länsförsäkringar Funds
- 2.4
1.2 % 30.1 Nordea Funds 12.7 0.0 0.7 % 18.2 Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund
- 1.5
0.6 % 14.4 AMF Pension Funds 11.6 55.9 % 1,459.0 Other 100.0 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.7 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.5 % 4.0 % 19.9 % Percent of Nordea 0,0 Nordea Profit-sharing Foundation 2,594.1 Total number of outstanding shares
- 2.7
65.3 Robur Funds
- 7.7
59.0 Alecta 0.0 515.6 Swedish state 0.0 102.5 Nordea Denmark Fund
- 1.1
56.5 SHB/SPP Funds 0.0 46.3 AMF Pension
- 1.9
43.4 SEB Funds 4.0 34.7 Sampo Oyj 0.2 Govt of Singapore Inv Corp
- 0.3
20.1 Third Swedish National Pension Fund
- 1.4
23.5 First Swedish National Pension Fund 0.1 25.5 Second Swedish National Pension Fund
- 0.2
32.1 Skandia Life Insurance Change 30 days, mill shares Number of shares, mill Shareholder
132
3.93 2.54 4.42 3.06 3.99 3.24 3.84 3.05 30-09-06 4.04 2.94 4.86 3.69 4.12 3.74 3.98 3.57 31-12-06 0.11 0.40 0.44 0.63 0.13 0.50 0.14 0.52 Change Q4/06 Short, SE Long, SE Short, NO Long, NO Long, DK Short, DK Long, EUR (5 years) Short, EUR (one week) %
Market development – interest rates
133
Macro data – Nordic market
% 2006e 2007e 2008e Gross domestic product DK 3.6 2.1 1.5 FI 5.6 3.2 3.6 NO 2.6 3.4 2.8 SE 4.3 3.4 2.5 Inflation DK 1.9 1.7 1.9 FI 1.6 1.8 1.6 NO 2.3 1.0 2.1 SE 1.4 1.4 1.3 Private consumption DK 3.9 2.6 1.6 FI 3.6 2.5 2.8 NO 4.0 3.2 2.1 SE 2.8 3.5 2.4 Unemployment DK 4.5 3.9 4.0 FI 7.9 7.4 7.0 NO 3.6 2.9 2.8 SE 5.4 5.3 5.1
Source: Nordea Markets Economic Outlook January 2007. In Norway, forecasts are for mainland GDP
134
Financial calendar 2007
Q1 report 2007 will be published on 3 May
www.nordea.com/ir
135
Disclaimer
- Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are
based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially from any expected future results or performance, express or implied, by the forward looking statements. Factors that might cause forward looking statements to differ materially from actual results include, among other things, regulatory and economic factors. Nordea assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained herein.
- No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Nordea or its
directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of Nordea or any of its directors,
- fficers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever
arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
- This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any
solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Nordea, nor shall it or any part
- f it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or
investment decision.