INVESTOR PRESENTATION
J U L Y 2 0 2 0
INVESTOR PRESENTATION Preliminary Results for year ended 28 March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
J U L Y 2 0 2 0 INVESTOR PRESENTATION Preliminary Results for year ended 28 March 2020 Table of contents 01 Covid-19 FY21 Q1 Impact and Current Trading 02 FY 2020 Results Overview 03 Strategy and Outlook 04 Appendix 1 1. COVID-19
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(£ millions) April May June Total UK & Europe Soft Flooring 3.1 6.9 24.5 34.5 UK & Europe Ceramic Tiles 11.8 20.2 28.2 60.3 Australia 5.3 9.4 8.6 23.3 Total 20.2 36.4 61.4 118.0 % of Pre-Covid-19 budget 35% 55% 102% 64%
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are not due before July 2024 and have no maintenance financial covenants
direct labour, logistics, and marketing expenditure
Note 1. Like-for-like revenue growth shown on a constant currency basis and adjusted to remove the impact of acquisitions 2. EBITDA, PBT and EPS shown before increase in credit loss provision, and exceptional and non-underlying items. EPS shown on a fully-diluted basis 3. Operating cash flow defined as underlying EBITDA, less non-cash items, plus movement in working capital. Free cash flow is before acquisition, refinancing and other exceptional items 4. Net debt shown before right-of-use lease liabilities, bond issue premia and prepaid finance costs. Leverage (Net debt / underlying EBITDA) consistent with the measure used by our lending banks
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‒ Revenue in the month of March down -9% year-on-year due to Covid-19, which had a notable adverse impact on overall annual like-for-like sales growth and margins
‒ 4 much smaller acquisitions, with total consideration paid in the year of £11.0m:
‒ Year-on-year growth returned to +4% in H2 (constant currency) following -5% reported in H1
‒ Reported margins impacted by the mix effect of lower-margin acquisitions and the adoption of IFRS 16 ‒ Like-for-like organic margin improvement of c. +70bps despite Covid-19 impact in March, comprising c. +170bps in UK & Europe Soft Flooring, c. +30bps in UK & Europe Ceramic Tiles, and c. -110bps in Australia (due to decline in H1, but reversing in H2)
‒
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‒ Re-focus on margin in H2 as confirmed last year, in the aftermath of a more volume oriented approach in FH19 and H1 FY20 ‒ Further rightsizing of production resource following significant reorganisation project in 2018. In the last 18 months, output has increased with approximately 115 fewer FTEs ‒ Implementation of yarn break detection systems, improving quality and reducing waste ‒ Gradual increase in operating speed of the new finishing line, with significant further quality improvement
‒ Completion of purpose-built conveyor system linking five production lines to warehouse, increasing efficiency and safety ‒ Reduction in off-site storage and reconfiguration of onsite warehouse ‒ Reduction in working capital through JIT arrangements with raw material suppliers ‒ Trading up in accessories
‒ Further improvement of service proposition to 85% within 2 days (from 68% in FY19) ‒ Distribution Centre efficiency gains from 31 to 45 cuts per table per hour ‒ Extra cutting table added – now 6 cutting tables within 3 DCs with an overall capacity of 24,000 cuts per week ‒ Invested in a fully-automated sortation system, contributing to efficient and accurate loading ‒ Ultimate target (now possible within existing infrastructure) of next day delivery for over 90% of orders
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‒ Further refinement of manufacturing processes at Serra boosting output by 10% on 2 out of 3 lines ‒ Resolved capacity constraint at Serra in porcelain segment through the lease of Ascot, adding 7 million m² of capacity ‒ SKU rationalisation of c. 40 % of the acquired collection at Ascot
‒ Integration of Saloni and Keraben manufacturing completed, allowing use of only 12 lines out of 15 available to produce the same overall quantity ‒ Developing purpose-built ranges for the growing DIY segment ‒ Integration of Ibero to come, involving both consolidation of both production and brand / marketing
‒ Main objectives under the previous challenging market conditions in HY1 were three-fold: rightsizing of costs, cash conservation and margin protection ‒ Integration of Melbourne underlay manufacturing into the Sydney factory was completed in Q3 FY20, delivering the targeted annual upside of AUD 1.5 million ‒ Significant focus on product development in new styles of carpet and LVT, which should benefit from H2 this year
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Note 1. Figures presented are underlying, pre-exceptional and before the increase in credit loss provision 2. Continuing operations - not including a small disposal from UK & Europe soft flooring division
Continuing operations £m 2020 2019
UK & Europe – soft flooring UK & Europe – ceramic tiles Australia Central costs TOTAL UK & Europe – soft flooring UK & Europe – ceramic tiles Australia Central costs TOTAL
Revenue 282.0 243.9 95.6
272.9 193.9 100.0
% growth +3.3% +25.7%
n/a +9.7% +29.1% +311.5% +25.5% n/a +28.1% % LFL organic growth
n/a +0.4% +7.3%
n/a +2.0% Gross profit 95.2 102.2 29.0
86.4 87.6 27.9
% margin 33.8% 41.9% 30.3%
31.7% 45.2% 27.9%
Underlying EBITDA (post-IFRS 16)1 41.3 68.3 10.3 (1.8) 118.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % margin 14.6% 28.0% 10.8%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Underlying EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16)1 34.8 66.2 8.1 (1.8) 107.2 29.3 59.3 9.6 (1.6) 96.6 % margin 12.3% 27.1% 8.5%
10.8% 30.7% 9.6%
Underlying EBIT1 21.7 51.5 5.8 (1.9) 77.1 17.0 48.3 6.8 (1.7) 70.5 % margin 7.7% 21.1% 6.1%
6.2% 24.9% 6.8%
Movement in credit loss provision (due to Covid-19 in 2020) (1.7) (1.0) (0.1)
(0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
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Note 1. Organic impact strips out the effect of acquisitions made during the current year and comparative period 2. Continuing operations - not including a small disposal from UK & Europe soft flooring division
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Note 1. Organic impact strips out the effect of acquisitions made during the current year and comparative period 2. Continuing operations - not including a small disposal from UK & Europe soft flooring division
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£m 2020
Initial asset recognised (as at 31 March 19) 56.1 Initial liability recognised (as at 31 March 19) 57.3 EBITDA 10.9 EBIT 1.5 PBT (1.0)
logarithmic, reducing finance cost (which ultimately, over the life of any given lease, arrive at the same total)
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Non-underlying items from continuing operations, £m 2020 2019
Covid-19 related Refinancing related Acquisition related Other Total Exceptional items Acquisition and disposal related costs (2.2) (1.8) Reorganisation costs (3.5) (12.7) Negative goodwill arising on acquisition 5.8 Goodwill impairment (50.0) Other items (5.9) (50.0)
(3.5) (20.4) Other operational items Non-cash share incentive plan charge (5.9) (1.9) Amortisation of acquired intangibles (25.0) (22.5) Acquisition-related performance plan charge (1.5)
(5.9) (25.9) Finance items Release of prepaid finance costs (4.4) (3.1) Underwriting fees and costs relating to previous bank facilities (6.5) Write-down of derivative asset representing value of bond embedded call option (7.3) Unsecured loan redemption premium credit / (charge) 0.2 Deferred consideration liabilities, unwinding of present value and other adjustments (3.4) (7.2) Mark to market adjustments on foreign exchange forward contracts 3.2 (0.7) Translation difference on foreign currency loans (13.0) (3.6)
(3.4) (9.8) (14.6) Key: Cash items
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Note 1. 2020 figures are from continuing operations and before the increase in credit loss provision 2. LFL revenue growth shown on a constant currency basis and adjusted to remove the impact of acquisitions and restructuring effects £m 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 2015-20 CAGR
Revenue 127 255 330 425 574 622 % growth 77.9% 100.9% 29.5% 28.6% 35.3% 9.7% % like for like growth
2.8% 4.6% 1.6%2 2.0%2 0.5% Underlying EBITDA 16 32 46 65 106 118 % margin 12.4% 12.7% 13.8% 15.2% 16.8% 19.0% Payments under right-of-use lease obligations
Non-cash items (0.2) (0.1) (0.5) (0.2) (0.8) (0.8) Underlying movement in working capital 2.2 0.1 (1.6) (0.2) 10.2 (8.0) Operating cash flow before interest, tax and exceptional items 18 32 44 64 106 98 40.2% % EBITDA conversion (pre IFRS 16) 113% 100% 95% 99% 110% 92% Interest paid (1) (3) (4) (7) (17) (25) Income tax paid (2) (3) (6) (11) (16) (9) Replacement capex (5) (10) (11) (14) (24) (25) Proceeds from fixed asset disposals 1 1
1 1 Free cash flow before exceptional items 10 17 24 35 50 39 31.4% % EBIT conversion 106% 78% 70% 72% 72% 51% Expansionary capex
(21) (8) Deferred consideration and earn-out payments (1) (8) (10) (15) (9) (12) Exceptional re-org cash items
(12) (3) Dividends
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Note 1. Net debt shown before right-of-use lease liabilities, bond issue premia and prepaid finance costs, consistent with the measure used by our lending banks
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£m 2020 2019 Net cash and cash equivalents 174.7 60.2 Senior secured debt (at par) (523.4) (386.9) Unsecured loans (15.6) (11.6) Finance leases and hire purchase arrangements (pre IFRS 16) (1.6) (1.6) Net debt (before obligations under right-of-use leases) (365.9) (339.9) Bond issue premium - cash (7.5)
(6.8)
9.9 3.6 Obligations under right-of-use leases (incremental) (78.2)
(448.5) (336.3) Adjusted net debt / EBITDA 3.0x 3.2x
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good example) have seen increased consumer purchasing
to spend on travel and entertainment, etc.
Complementary strategic acquisitions
Group’s products and end-markets
7.2% 12.4% 12.7% 13.8% 15.2% 16.8% 17.3% FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Organic growth initiatives
ranges, broadening target markets
range in UK and Australia
and market specification
Synergies and integration to drive margin Sustainable organic and acquisitive growth Generation of free cash flow to enable deleveraging
Source: Company information. (1) Operating cashflow is calculated as underlying EBITDA, plus the movement in working capital, less maintenance capex and less non-cash items. (2) FY20 EBITDA margin is pre-IFRS 16 and before increase in credit loss provision
Customer-facing activities (design, branding, sales and marketing) are maintained independently Commercial synergies drive revenue growth Operational synergies (procurement, production, logistics and IT) drive margin expansion Underlying EBITDA margin (%) Free Cash Flow before exceptional items (£m)
8.1 10.0 17.2 23.7 35.0 50.4 39.2 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
A B High free cash conversion Leverage reduction Acquisition criteria
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21 DEMAND
MANUFACTURE
DISTRIBUTE
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Note 1. Underlying operating profit and underlying PBT shown before increase in credit loss provision
Continuing operations £m 2020 2019 2020 margin Revenue 621.5 566.8 Cost of sales (395.1) (364.8) Gross profit 226.4 202.0 36.4% Distribution and admin. expenses (153.3) (134.6) Other operating income 4.0 3.1 Underlying operating profit 77.1 70.5 12.4% Underlying finance costs (26.3) (13.1) Underlying PBT 50.7 57.3 8.2% Credit loss provision (2.8) (0.3) Amortisation of acquired intangibles (25.0) (22.5) Exceptional costs (5.9) (23.8) Exceptional goodwill impairment (50.0)
(18.2) (10.9) Translation difference on foreign currency loans (13.0) (3.6) Reported PBT (64.0) (3.8)
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£m 2020 2019 Property, plant & equipment 211.8 190.8 Current assets 309.5 256.5 Current liabilities (210.1) (152.0) Non-current liabilities (16.8) (15.0) Net tangible operating assets 294.4 280.3 Net cash and cash equivalents 174.7 60.2 Senior secured debt (at par) (523.4) (386.9) Bond issue premium - cash (7.5)
(6.8)
(15.6) (11.6) Finance leases and hire purchase arrangements (pre IFRS 16)
Obligations under right-of-use leases (79.8)
9.9 3.6 Net debt including right-of-use leases (448.5) (336.3) Goodwill and intangibles 439.9 465.2 Deferred tax liability (64.7) (60.3) Right-of-use lease assets 78.5
(39.0) (29.1) Intangible assets and other items 414.7 375.8 Overall net assets 260.6 319.9
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Underlay and accessories
(1) Adj. EBITDA margin is post IFRS 16 and before credit loss provision (2) Largest UK manufacturer by volume. (3) By sales.
26 Ceramic tiles
(28% Adj. EBITDA margin1)
Soft flooring
(14% Adj. EBITDA margin1)
Brands span from mid-end mass market up to high- end covering every price point Market position UK & Europe Australia UK & Europe
Strong market positions across key markets in UK Carpets(2) in UK Underlay and accessories(2) in Underlay and accessories(3)
#1 #1
in Carpets(3)
#2 #1
Artificial grass LVT Carpet LVT Underlay and accessories Carpet
Sydney Production Melbourne Production Lancashire Production Newport, Wales Production Keighly Production Dumfries Production Dewsbury Production Kidderminster, West Midlands Head office County Durham Production
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Employees: UK & Europe: c. 3,050 Australia: c. 350
Aalten, Netherlands Oss, Netherlands Ronse, Belgium Sassuolo, Italy Production Castellón, Spain Production
UK: 31%
Australia: 8%
Spain: 44%
Benelux: 4%
Italy: 13%
Note: Figures based on FY21 management budget
Significant operational improvement from synergy and reorganisation projects Enhanced logistic capabilities through several distribution centres across the UK Proximity of production sites to domestic market allows Victoria to service demand effectively
Underlying EBITDA by Country of Origin:
Ceramic tiles 62% Carpets 18% Underlay 16% Artificial Grass 4% UK 28% Spain 24% France 10% Australia… Rest of Europe 17% Other 11% Independent retailers 43% National retailers 24% DIY retailers 6% Wholesalers / Distributors 22% Commercial – hospitality, leisure and construction 1% Other 4%
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Well balanced product portfolio Highly diversified geographic exposure Low customer concentration Multi-channel customer base
Wide product offering increases cross selling
visibility and pricing power Flexibility to produce in and serve multiple geographies Largest group of customers are independent flooring retailers having brand loyalty and long term relationships Split of revenue by customer type(1) Split of EBITDA by destination country(1) Split of EBITDA by product category(1) Split of revenue by key customer(1)
3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 82%
Top 10 customers account for 18% sales with largest customer accounting for 3%
Note: (1) Figures based on FY19 pro-forma
Source: Freedonia Global Flooring Market Report (Jan-19)
Improvement & repair is the primary driver of the Western European and Australian residential flooring markets
85% 15%
I&R - Non-Cyclical New Build - Cyclical
FY17 1.2bn sqm
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Key advantages of I&R vs. new build
given lower cost vs. new build
2,100 2,240 2,395 2,535 173 222 231 254 2,273 2,462 2,626 2,789 FY12 FY17 FY22 FY27 Western Europe Australia
We operate in developed markets with steady growth drivers
Western European and Australian flooring market (m sqm)
5.1% 1.3% CAGR FY12-17 CAGR FY17-22 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 1.3%
I&R end market 5-6x larger than new construction
Fragmented customer base – focus on long-standing relationships with broad network of independent retailers Established and trusted brands – well known with retailers for certainty of supply and quality Product handling – specialist warehousing and distribution required; difficult over long distances Scale is key – smaller operations / contract manufacturing significantly less efficient than long production runs Proximity to customers helps influence designs/trends and maintain customer relationships Deep product knowledge and technical expertise – vital to underpin operational efficiency and innovation 30
Note: Based on underlying FY19 figures. (1) Represent costs within underlying EBITDA.
Capex % of revenue – low maintenance requirement
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3.7% 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 1.0% 2.2% 3.4% 1.4%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Maintenance Expansionary
Cost of sales(1) SG&A(1) Total cost base(1)
Materials 45% Direct Labour 11% Overheads 6%
Variable cost – varies directly with revenues Semi-variable cost – flexibility within a few months Fixed cost (can still be subject to synergies) 62%
revenues
Logistics 11% Sales & Marketing 8% Administration 2%
21%
revenues
Variable 45% Semi- variable 30% Fixed 8%
83%
revenues
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY201
Underlying EBITDA £2.3m £5.1m £15.8m £32.3m £45.7m £64.7m £96.3m £107.2m % margin 3.0% 7.0% 12.4% 12.7% 13.8% 15.2% 16.8% 17.3%
Value accretive acquisitions driving EBITDA growth
Listed
in 2013 Acquired Nov-13 Acquired Sep-14 Acquired Jan-15 Acquired Sep-15 Acquired Oct-16 Acquired Feb-17 Acquired Nov-17 Acquired Jun-17 Acquired Dec-17 Acquired Aug-15 Acquired Aug-18
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Built meaningful scale since 2013 with 17 acquisitions Keraben, Serra & Saloni propelled group to a strong market position in European Ceramic tiles Better buying power on raw materials Rationalisation of product lines and cross selling via new distribution channels Ability to affect price increases Distribution, warehousing and logistics Consolidation of manufacturing capacity
Consolidator in a fragmented industry Synergies create strong levers for margin expansion
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Company information. (1) FY20 figures from continuing operations, before IFRS 16 and movement in credit loss provision
Acquired May-19 Acquired Nov-19 Acquired Aug-19 Acquired Mar-20
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Philippe Hamers Chief Executive
Retention of management
All managers retained post acquisition earn-out period ,excluding retirees Almost all managers have meaningful amounts of their net worth invested in VCP Of the [17] acquisitions to date, [8] have completed earn-out and [5] did not have earn-
Geoffrey Wilding Executive Chairman
Wider Management Team
[15] Managing Directors responsible for individual business units [20 years] of average industry experience Actively incentivised in Victoria’s future with significant investment in shares, LTIP plans, and cross-unit Board membership / project Experience, product knowledge, enthusiasm, skill second to none
Michael Scott Group Finance Director
Revenues (£m) 71 EBITDA margin (%) 7.2% Market Cap (£m) 23 FY14
Value Creation
622 17.3%(1)
301(2)
Note: (1) FY20 EBITDA margin based on underlying EBITDA, pre IFRS 16 and before movement in credit loss provision, from continuing operations (2) As of 21 July 2020.
34 Rank Investor Name Shareholding % 1 Invesco 25,826,095 20.60 2 Mr Geoff Wilding 22,438,650 17.89 3 Spruce House Investment Mgt 18,570,000 14.81 4 Camelot Capital Partners 7,694,103 6.14 5 Morgan Stanley Investment Mgt 6,041,668 4.82 6 Mubadala Investment Company 4,716,717 3.76 7 Danske Capital Mgt 2,499,699 1.99 8 Long Light Capital 2,345,000 1.87 9 Columbia Threadneedle Investments 2,039,970 1.63 10 BlackRock Investment Mgt - Index 1,863,606 1.49 11 Shore Capital Stockbrokers 1,744,603 1.39 12 UBS Securities 1,697,361 1.35 13 Interactive Investor 1,689,290 1.35 14 Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 1,624,256 1.30 15 Mr Charles Anton 1,520,550 1.21 16 Mr Rodney Style 1,480,000 1.18 17 Banque Syz & Co 1,334,339 1.06 18 Redmayne Bentley Stockbrokers 1,028,734 0.82 19 Miss Georgina Anton 1,006,500 0.80 20 Miss Francesca Anton 1,000,000 0.80 Others 17,236,863 13.75 Total 125,398,004 100.00
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