Investor Meeting Presentation June 2013 Tab able le of of Con - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investor Meeting Presentation June 2013 Tab able le of of Con - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 22, 2023 202 likes •439 views

Investor Meeting Presentation June 2013 Tab able le of of Con ontent tent Government Debt Position Prudent Fiscal Management Preserved Macroeconomic Stability to Support Further Growth Government Debt Position Govt. Debt Outstanding

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SLIDE 1

Investor Meeting Presentation

June 2013

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SLIDE 2

Tab able le of

  • f Con
  • ntent

tent

Government Debt Position Prudent Fiscal Management Preserved Macroeconomic Stability to Support Further Growth

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SLIDE 3

Government Debt Position

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SLIDE 4

4

Notes: + Provisional as of May 2013

Gov’t. Debt Outstanding 2007-2012

Trillion IDR

906 979 1.064 1.188 1.361 1.461 730 611 617 621 614 575

  • 200

400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800 2.000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*) Loan Government Securities

[ IDR Trillion & Percentage] EoY Loan 730 45% 611 38% 617 37% 621 37% 614 31% 575 28% Government Securities 906 55% 979 62% 1.064 63% 1.188 63% 1.361 69% 1.461 72% Total 1.637 100% 1.591 100% 1.682 100% 1.809 100% 1.975 100% 2.037 100% 2013*) 2012 2010 2009 2011 2008

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SLIDE 5

5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2041 2042 2043 TOTAL 36,8 83,3 77,3 66,2 49,4 83,0 56,8 69,3 60,2 92,2 61,8 18,0 27,5 19,6 44,3 48,2

  • 25,6
27,1 42,8 44,5 15,8 4,11 31,4 35,5
  • 13,5
34,3 16,9 SUKUK USD
  • 6,46
  • 9,93
  • 9,93
  • SUKUK IDR
2,58 7,34 18,9 14,9 1,17 8,71
  • 0,25
  • 1,22
  • 1,55
  • 2,93
  • 2,18
  • 4,11
10,1
  • 2,05

SUN JPY

  • 3,54

6,06

  • 6,06
  • SUN USD
  • 22,8

9,93 8,94 9,93 18,8 19,8 19,8 24,8 19,8 14,9

  • 15,8
  • 14,9

19,8

  • 22,3

14,9 SUN IDR 34,2 46,7 48,4 42,3 38,3 45,5 33,4 43,2 35,3 55,1 47,0 18,0 26,0 19,6 41,4 48,2

  • 23,5

27,1 42,8 44,5

  • 6,40

15,6

  • 13,5

12,0

  • 20,00

40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00

Debt Maturity Profile

As of May2013 As of June 24, 2013

[IDR Trillion]

53 99 85 75 60 92 69 82 76 108 75 33 44 22 47 51 3 29 31 47 48 5 21 10 38 43 8 9 98 37 53 52 49 43 41 41 40 35 30 25 21 18 15 13 10 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 1

  • 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041-2055

Loan Government Securities

[IDR Trillion]

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SLIDE 6

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Debt Risk Indicators, 2007 - 2012

26,7 22,9 22,0 20,3 18,8 16,1 30,2 28,2 28,2 26,1 25,9 22,4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Interest Rate Risk

Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%] 16,5 17,2 13,4 12,1 10,9 10,7 46,9 52,1 47,4 46,2 45,1 44,4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Exchange Rate Risk

FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) 10,4 10,0 9,7 9,5 9,3 9,7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Time To Maturity (ATM)-Years

Average Time to Maturity (in percentage) 6,8 6,4 7,6 7,1 8,2 7,2 19,4 18,6 20,3 20,8 22,7 21,5 30,6 31,1 33,2 34,1 34,6 32,4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Debt Maturing in 1, 3 and 5 Years

Maturity debt portion < 1 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 3 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 5 year (%)

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Financing Trend, 2006 – 2012 Budget Deficit Financing

(trillion IDR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** Govt Securities - net 6,9 22,6 36,0 57,2 85,9 99,5 91,1 119,9 159,7 231,8 Domestic Loan

  • 0,39

0,62 0,75 0,50 External Loan - net (28,1) (10,3) (26,6) (26,6) (18,4) (12,4) (4,57) (17,8) (25,1) (16,90) Others/Non-Debt - net 42,0 (1,2) 20,0 11,9 16,6 25,5 4,6 28,3 37,9 (8,8) Budget Defisit, % to GDP 0,5 0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,1 1,8 2,38

  • 0,5

0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,1 1,8 2,38

(0,5)

  • 0,5

1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5

  • 50

50 100 150 200

Notes: * LKPP Unaudited 2012 ** Revised Budget 2013

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SLIDE 8

8

33,1% 28,3% 26,1% 24,3% 24,0% 23,1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013**

Debt to GDP Ratio and Debt Service Ratio 2008 – 2013

Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP) Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%) Interest Expenses to Revenue and Expenditure Ratio (%) Interest Expenses to Tax Revenue & Central Government Expenditure Ratio (%)

Notes: * Based on Realization of Dec 2012 (Unaudited) ** Based on Budget 2013

14,2% 15,1% 12,2% 10,7% 10,3% 9,5% 12,8% 14,9% 12,7% 10,6% 10,0% 9,8%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013**

to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure

9,01% 11,05% 8,88% 7,70% 7,53% 7,40% 8,97% 10,00% 8,48% 7,20% 6,79% 6,73%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013**

Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure

4,0% 3,8% 3,4% 3,1% 3,0% 2,9% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013**

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9

Gov’t Debt Securities Issuance Plan 2013

Gov’t Debt Operation – Policy Combination

2013 - Budget (trillion IDR) % of GDP 2013- Revised Budget (trillion IDR) % of Revised GDP Total Revenue & Grants 1.529,7 16,5% 1.502,0 16,0%

  • f which

Tax Revenue 1.192,99 12,9% 1.148,36 12,2% Non Tax Revenue 332,20 3,6% 349,16 3,7% Expenditure 1.683,0 18,2% 1.726,2 18,4%

  • f which

Interest payment 113,2 1,2% 112,5 1,2% 0,0% 0,0% Subsidy 317,2 3,4% 348,1 3,7% 0,0% 0,0% Primary Balance (40,1)

  • 0,4%

(111,7)

  • 1,2%

Overall Balance (deficit) (153,3)

  • 1,7%

(224,2)

  • 2,4%

Financing 153,3 1,7% 224,2 2,4% Non Debt (Net) (8,1)

  • 0,1%

(8,8)

  • 0,1%

Debt 161,5 1,7% 225,0 2,4% 0,0% 0,0% Govt Securities (Net) 180,4 1,9% 231,8 2,5% 0,0% 0,0% Domestic Official Borrowing 0,5 0,0% 0,5 0,0% External Official Borrowing (Net) (19,5)

  • 0,2%

(16,9)

  • 0,2%

Disbursement 45,9 0,5% 49,0 0,5% Program Loan 6,5 0,1% 11,1 0,1% Project Loan (Bruto) 39,4 0,4% 37,9 0,4% On lending (7,0)

  • 0,1%

(6,7)

  • 0,1%

Repayment (58,4)

  • 0,6%

59,2 0,6% Assumptions: GDP (trillion) 9.269,6 9.404,7 Growth (%) 6,8 6,3 Inflation (%) 4,9 7,2 3-months SPN (% avg) 5,0 5,0 Rp / USD (avg) 9.300,0 9.600,0 Oil Price (USD/barrel) 100,0 108,0 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 900,0 840,0 Item

  • Domestic market issuance will be prioritized
  • Issuance in benchmark tenor, Benchmark Series for 2013:
  • Issuance in global market
  • Maximum non-IDR govt securities issuance approximately 18%-20% from

total gov’t debt securities issuance

  • Buyback, debt switching, direct transaction
  • Initiatives strategic :USD securities issuance in domestic market & sukuk

project financing  FR 66 – 5 Y  FR 63 – 10 Y  FR 64 – 15 Y  FR 65 – 20 Y

Primary Dealers

1. Citibank N.A 2. Deutsche Bank AG 3. HSBC 4.

  • PT. Bank Central Asia, Tbk

5.

  • PT. Bank Danamon Indonesia, Tbk.

6.

  • PT. Bank Internasional Indonesia, Tbk

7.

  • PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero), Tbk

8.

  • PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero), Tbk

9.

  • PT. Bank OCBC NISP, Tbk
  • 10. PT. Bank Panin, Tbk
  • 11. PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk
  • 12. PT. Bank Permata, Tbk
  • 13. PT. Bank CIMB Niaga, Tbk
  • 14. Standard Chartered Bank
  • 15. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA.
  • 16. PT. Bahana Securities
  • 17. PT. Danareksa Sekuritas
  • 18. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas
  • 19. PT. Trimegah Securities, Tbk
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SLIDE 10

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2012-2013 Funding Strategy Progress

(Million IDR)

Budget 2013 Revised Budget 2013

Realization (ao June 25, 2013)

% Realization to Revised Budget 2013 Government Securities Maturity 2013 85.610.835 85.610.835 50.617.810 59,13% Government Securities Net 180.439.900 231.800.000 90.593.680 39,08% Buyback 3.000.000 3.000.000 1.551.385 51,71% Issuance Need 2013* 279.430.735 330.790.835 145.562.875 44,00% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 120.619.000 Domestic GDS 91.450.000

  • Coupon GDS

75.100.000

  • Conventional T-Bills

16.350.000

  • Retail Bonds

International Bonds 29.169.000

  • USD Global Bonds

29.169.000

  • Samurai Bonds

Government Islamic Debt Securities 24.943.875 Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 24.943.875 International Sukuk

*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch

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11

Debt Issuance Program 2013

Calendar of Issuance

11

Month Date Type Tenor (sector) 1) Target (Rp)

January January 15, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year January 29, 2013 ON 5, 10, 15 year SPN 1 year February February 5, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month February 12, 2013 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year February 19, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year February 26, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 1 year March March 5, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month March 13, 2013 ON 5, 10, 15 year SPN 3 month, 1 year March 19, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year March 26, 2013 ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 1 year April April 2, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month April 9, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year April 16, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year April 23, 2013 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 1 year April 30, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year May May 6, 2013 ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year May 14, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month May 21, 2013 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year May 28, 2012 PBS 5, 25 year June June 3, 2013 ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year June 11, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month June 18, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 1 year June 25, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year

1) Tenor (sector) means that the tenor to be issued will be around the tenor stated in column "Tenor (sector)". 2) The total of issuance is excluding Sukuk Retail, ORI, Bonds in currencies other than Rupiah, and USD denominated bonds in Domestic market

54.015.000.000.000 60.450.000.000.000

Month Date Type Tenor (sector) 1) Target (Rp)

July July 2, 2013 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year July 9, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month July 16, 2013 ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 1 year July 23, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month July 30, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year August August 20, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month August 27, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 1 year September September 3, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month September 10, 2013 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year September 17, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month September 24, 2013 ON 5, 10, 15 year SPN 1 year October October 1, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month October 8, 2013 ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year October 22, 2013 ON 5, 10, 15 year SPN 1 year October 29, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month November November 6, 2013 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year November 12, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month November 19, 2013 ON 5, 10, 15 year SPN 1 year November 26, 2013 PBS 5, 25 year SPN-S 6 month December December 3, 2013 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year
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SLIDE 12

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Domestic Market is Arising

The amount of incoming bids for long tenor bonds from local institutional buyers in recent auctions

Others : Domestic pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds

Increasing demand in domestic primary market align with downward trend in borrowing cost

12

24,60 53,98 48,73 95,57 189,46 136,18 198,23 315,91 393,41 430,59 194,74

11,71 23,57 22,54 39,30 70,78 66,06 79,20 101,90 138,85 152,77 91,45

11,92 10,42 13,97 10,14 10,01 11,86 10,04 7,57 5,96 5,30 6,46

3 6 9 12 15

  • 100

200 300 400 500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 as of June 18, 2013

Total Incoming Bid Total Bid Accepted Yield at Tenor 10 year (RHS)

[IDRTrillion]

24% 14% 19% 29% 35% 24% 33% 24% 35% 37% 23% 22% 28% 26% 41% 45% 22% 52% 48% 51% 45% 45% 51% 51% 32% 41% 49% 59% 53% 43% 41% 39% 38% 37% 24% 38% 30% 26% 20% 24% 16% 44% 24% 14% 17% 25% 29% 32% 20% 17% 41%

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Foreign Local Bank & Central Bank Others

Incoming Bid - Long Tenor (≥ 10 years)

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SLIDE 13

13

Government Debt Securities Auction in 2012-2013

4 8 12 16 20 11 22 33 44 55

10-Jan-12 26-Jan-12 31-Jan-12 07-Feb-12 14-Feb-12 21-Feb-12 23-Feb-12 06-Mar-12 13-Mar-12 20-Mar-12 27-Mar-12 03-Apr-12 10-Apr-12 17-Apr-12 24-Apr-12 02-May-12 08-May-12 14-May-12 22-May-12 05-Jun-12 12-Jun-12 19-Jun-12 26-Jun-12 03-Jul-12 10-Jul-12 17-Jul-12 24-Jul-12 07-Aug-12 09-Aug-12 28-Aug-12 04-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 02-Oct-12 04-Oct-12 16-Oct-12 23-Oct-12 30-Oct-12 12-Nov-12 03-Dec-12 15-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 05-Feb-13 14-Feb-13 19-Feb-13 26-Feb-13 05-Mar-13 13-Mar-13 19-Mar-13 26-Mar-13 02-Apr-13 09-Apr-13 16-Apr-13 23-Apr-13 30-Apr-13 06-May-13 14-May-13 21-May-13 03-Jun-13 11-Jun-13 18-Jun-13

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Bid to cover [RHS]

IDR Trillion

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SLIDE 14

14

2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 16,00 18,00 20,00 22,00

Apr'08 Jun'08 Agust'08 Okt'08 Des'08 Feb'09 Apr'09 Jun'09 Agust'09 Okt'09 Des'09 Feb'10 Apr'10 Jun'10 Agust'10 Okt'10 Des'10 Feb'11 Apr'11 Jun'11 Agust'11 Okt'11 Des'11 Feb'12 Apr'12 Jun'12 Agust'12 Okt'12 Des'12 Feb'13 Apr'13 Jun'13

5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y

Global Financial Crisis

Eurozone sovereign debt crisis

Secondary Market Performance of Government Bonds

Average daily trading Yield of Benchmark Series

Average daily trading significantly increased, while yield on benchmark series steadily decreased

[In Percentage]

As of June 24, 2013

14

2.549 3.307 5.899 4.235 3.420 4.963 7.671 9.389 6.657 7.603 7.421 7.932 9.092 11.159

  • 80

160 240 320 400 480

  • 2.000

4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan '13 Feb '13 Mar '13 Apr '13 May '13 24-Jun-13 Volume (billion rupiah) - LHS Frequency - RHS

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SLIDE 15

15

Ownership of Tradable Government Securities

In IDR Trillion

Domestic financial institutions are picking up in size, however demand for Gov’t bonds from foreign investors keep growing above the demand from financial institutions. 15

Banks 254,36 43,72% 217,27 33,88% 265,03 36,63% 299,66 36,73% 315,89 36,67% 298,27 34,11% 306,26 34,19% 311,82 35,16% Govt Institutions 22,50 3,87% 17,42 2,72% 7,84 1,08% 3,07 0,37% 4,86 0,56% 19,19 2,19% 22,81 2,55% 29,82 3,36% Non-Banks 304,89 52,41% 406,53 63,40% 450,75 62,29% 517,53 63,09% 540,76 62,77% 557,02 63,70% 566,71 63,26% 545,28 61,48% Mutual Funds 45,22 7,77% 51,16 7,98% 47,22 6,53% 43,19 5,27% 41,91 4,87% 41,46 4,74% 41,45 4,63% 39,55 4,46% Insurance Company 72,58 12,48% 79,30 12,37% 93,09 12,86% 83,42 10,17% 120,78 14,02% 121,88 13,94% 127,17 14,20% 125,67 14,17% Foreign Holders 108,00 18,56% 195,76 30,53% 222,86 30,80% 270,52 32,98% 280,75 32,59% 298,72 34,16% 302,94 33,82% 284,35 32,06% Pension Fund 37,50 6,45% 36,75 5,73% 34,39 4,75% 56,46 6,88% 27,61 3,20% 27,53 3,15% 28,46 3,18% 28,90 3,26% Securities Company 0,46 0,08% 0,13 0,02% 0,14 0,02% 0,30 0,04% 1,04 0,12% 0,77 0,09% 0,92 0,10% 0,94 0,11% Individual 27,56 3,20% 26,26 3,00% 25,29 2,82% 25,03 2,82% Others 41,12 7,07% 43,43 6,77% 53,05 7,33% 63,64 7,76% 41,12 4,77% 40,40 4,62% 40,48 4,52% 40,84 4,60% Total 581,75 100% 641,21 100% 723,61 100% 820,27 100% 861,52 100% 874,49 100% 895,77 100% 886,92 100% 25-Jun-13 Apr-13 Dec-12 May-13 Mar-13 Dec-10 Dec-09 Dec-11

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SLIDE 16

16

Foreign Investor Activity

Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor

Foreign investors mostly dominated by high quality long term investors

In IDR Trillion

4% 10% 12% 8% 4% 5% 5% 8% 3% 7%

20% 18% 17% 16% 15% 22% 21% 25% 28% 30% 49% 46% 38% 45% 44% 19% 30,53% 30,80% 32,98% 32,06% 0% 20% 40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 25-Jun-13 >10 >5-10 >2-5 >1-2 0-1 % Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS)

9,67 13,88 (1,49) (29,29) 1,69 (4,99) 8,06 13,11 (8,99) (2,27) 4,15 (4,37) (0,08) 10,13 (1,41) 7,83 9,35 19,52 0,68 2,68 8,44 (0,88) 17,97 4,22 (18,59)

(0,15) (0,10) (0,05) 0,00 0,05 0,10 (40,00) (30,00) (20,00) (10,00) 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00

Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 25-Jun-13

Capital Inflows Capital inflows over total foreign holders

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SLIDE 17

17

  • 200

400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13

Indonesia Phillipine Turkey

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13

Yield - 10 y USD Indonesia Global Bond Yield - 10 y Global Bond CDS 10 y (RHS)

Global Bonds Issuance Result (10 – year) & Yield Secondary Market

Cost of 10 y global bonds is declining, along side its spread over treasury

Source : Bloomberg

As of April 30, 2013

10Y CDS (as of April 2013)

36% 53% 40% 30% 24% 19% 30% 24% 29% 66% 30% 29% 28% 31% 21% 29% 47% 20% 27% 22% 17% 20% 35% 18% 29% 49% 47% 34% 50% 49% 49% 17% 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

INDO-14 INDO-15 INDO-16 INDO-17 Indo-18 INDO-18 (Reopening) Indo-19 Indo- 20 INDO-21 R10422 RI0423 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Asia Europe USA

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SLIDE 18

18

Government Securities Profile

  • Since October 2006, Government and Central Bank committed to replace interest payment of Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia

(SU-002 & SU-004) with new bond (SU-007) and omitted indexation of SU-002 & SU-004

GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 May-13 24-Jun-13

  • 1. Domestic Tradable GDS

IDR 570.215 IDR 615.498 IDR 684.618 IDR 757.231 IDR 817.613 IDR 808.764

  • a. Zero Coupon

IDR 33.386 IDR 32.307 IDR 32.412 IDR 24.083 IDR 22.470 IDR 20.790

  • 1. Government Treasury Bills

IDR 24.700 IDR 29.795 IDR 29.900 IDR 22.820 IDR 22.470 IDR 20.790

  • 2. Zero Coupon Bond

IDR 8.686 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 1.263 IDR - IDR -

  • b. Government Domestic Bonds

IDR 536.829 IDR 583.191 IDR 652.206 IDR 733.148 IDR 795.143 IDR 787.974

  • 1. Fixed Rate *) +)

IDR 393.543 IDR 440.396 IDR 517.142 IDR 610.393 IDR 672.388 IDR 665.219

  • 2. Variable Rate *)

IDR 143.286 IDR 142.795 IDR 135.063 IDR 122.755 IDR 122.755 IDR 122.755

  • 2. Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia **) ***)

IDR 251.875 IDR 248.432 IDR 244.636 IDR 240.144 IDR 238.528 IDR 237.571

  • 3. Total GDS (2+3)

IDR 822.090 IDR 863.930 IDR 929.254 IDR 997.376 IDR 1.056.141 IDR 1.046.335

  • 4. Total Government International Bonds *)

USD 14.200 USD 16.200 USD 18.700 USD 22.950 USD 25.950 USD 25.950 35.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥ 155.000 ¥

  • 5. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURITIES (3+(4*Exchange Rate Assumption))

IDR 959.130 IDR 1.020.062 IDR 1.109.922 IDR 1.236.658 IDR 1.325.616 IDR 1.319.708 GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS)

  • 6. Domestic Tradable GIDS

IDR 11.533 IDR 25.717 IDR 38.988 IDR 63.035 IDR 78.160 IDR 78.160

  • a. Fixed Rate *)++)

IDR 11.533 IDR 25.717 IDR 37.668 IDR 62.840 IDR 76.130 IDR 76.130

  • b. Zero Coupon

IDR 1.320 IDR 195 IDR 2.030 IDR 2.030

  • 7. Domestic Non Tradable GIDS

IDR 2.686 IDR 12.783 IDR 23.783 IDR 35.783 IDR 31.533 IDR 31.533

  • 8. Government International Islamic Bonds
  • 1. Fixed Rate *)

USD 650 USD 650 USD 1.650 USD 2.650 USD 2.650 USD 2.650

  • 9. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURITIES (6+(8*Exchange Rate Assumption))

IDR 17.643 IDR 31.561 IDR 53.950 IDR 88.660 IDR 104.135 IDR 104.477

  • 10. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

IDR 979.458 IDR 1.064.406 IDR 1.187.655 IDR 1.361.101 IDR 1.461.284 IDR 1.455.718 Notes:

  • Nominal in billion rupiah (domestic bonds), million USD & million JPY (international bonds)
  • *) Tradable
  • **) Non-Tradable
  • +) Including ORI (IDR Billion))

IDR 40.149 IDR 40.672 IDR 42.616 IDR 34.153 IDR 34.153 IDR 34.153

  • ++) Including Sukuk Ritel/SR (IDR Billion)

IDR 5.556 IDR 13.590 IDR 20.931 IDR 28.989 IDR 35.924 IDR 35.924

  • Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1)

IDR 9.400 IDR 8.991 IDR 9.068 IDR 9.670 IDR 9.802 IDR 9.931

  • Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/JPY1)

IDR 101,70 IDR 110,29 IDR 116,80 IDR 111,97 IDR 97,50 IDR 101,05

slide-19
SLIDE 19

19

  • 2,0

4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 22,0 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

26 Jun '13 19 Jun '13 24 Mei '13 9 Feb '12 23 Sep '11 27 Okt '08 13 Sep'05 [in percentage]

Sources: IDMA, Bloomberg

Yield Curve of Government Securities (IDMA/Himdasun)

Tenor 26-Jun-13 19-Jun-13 24-May-13 9-Feb-12 23-Sep-11 27-Oct-08 13 Sep'05 1Y 5.83 5.52 4.10 3.30 5.29 19.37 2Y 6.38 5.96 4.47 4.21 6.01 17.35 14.59 3Y 6.38 5.87 4.64 4.33 6.13 19.93 4Y 6.36 5.93 4.78 4.39 6.54 17.17 14.14 5Y 6.36 6.04 5.00 4.44 6.69 17.46 14.96 6Y 6.71 6.08 5.19 4.79 6.81 17.05 15.24 7Y 6.85 6.29 5.36 4.88 7.08 17.06 16.17 10Y 7.09 6.56 5.75 5.02 7.43 20.91 15.75 15Y 7.58 7.15 6.41 5.47 7.83 16.65 14.12 20Y 7.79 7.32 6.69 5.96 8.20 20.27 30Y 7.85 7.35 6.52 6.17 8.29 20.37

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SLIDE 20

20

Implementing Crisis Management Protocol

1

Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework

2

Enhancing coordination between government institutions and continuous dialogue with market participants

3

Pre-emptive measures

Buyback of government bonds by the DMO from the state budget Potential purchase of government bonds by State Owned Enterprises Purchase of government bonds by the Treasury office and Indonesia Investment Agency Purchase of government bonds by the DMO from accumulated cash surplus

Specific policies in place to address crisis enacted in the 2012 budget law

4

Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation

5

1. Indicators to determine crisis level of Government Securities Market condition (normal, aware, alert, crisis) 2. There are some indicators that are monitored:

a. Benchmark yield on Government securities b. Exchange rate c. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) d. Foreign ownership in Government securities

3. Policies to address the crisis at every level:

a. Re-purchase Gov. securities at secondary market b. Postpone or stop the issuance of Govt. securities

Bond Stabilization Framework Crisis Management Protocol

Policies to Address and Mitigate Sudden Reversal

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SLIDE 21

21

R&I – 18 October 2012 “With the global economy slowing down, Indonesia maintains relatively high economic growth. Its fiscal management remains conservative, and the government’s debt burden is kept low. The financial system has also become more stable. Greater trust in its economy has led to an increase in foreign investment, and reinforcement of the industrial bas has been progressing gradually .”

Mar-99 Nov-99 Jul-00 Feb-01 Oct-01 Jun-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 Apr-04 Dec-04 Aug-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Oct-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Dec-11

Moody's S&P Fitch

Indonesia’s credit ratings

Solid economic fundamentals have been supporting the improvement of Indonesia’s sovereign credit ratings since 2001

Rating agencies comments

International rating agencies are recognising the improvements in the Indonesian economy

B3/B-/B- B2/B/B B1/B+/B+ Ba3/BB-/BB- Ba2/BB/BB Ba1/BB+/BB+ Baa3/BBB-/BBB-

Investment grade

Rating history

CCC+/CCC+/Caa1 CCC/CCC/Caa2 Positive outlook Negative outlook Stable outlook Positive Watch Source: Moody’s, Fitch, S&P Moody’s – 18 January 2012 “Indonesia‘s cyclical resilience to large external shocks points to sustainably high trend growth…Economic strength is underpinned by gains in investment spending, improved prospects for infrastructure development following key policy reforms, and a well-managed financial system.”

Baa3 / Stable

Fitch – 15 December 2011 “The rationale behind the upgrade is improved economic performance, strengthened external liquidity, low and declining public debt ratios, and a prudent overall macro policy framework. Rapid progress in tackling structural weaknesses combined with sustained economic growth in line with or better than Fitch’s projections without a build-up of external imbalances or a severe inflation shock would enhance Indonesia’s economic and sovereign credit fundamentals and exert upward pressure on the rating.”

BBB- / Stable

JCR – 24 August 2011 “The ratings reflect (i) the country’s sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, (ii) alleviated public debt burden brought by prudent fiscal management, (iii) reinforced resilience to external shocks stemming from accumulated foreign exchange reserves and an improved external debt management capacity.…”

BBB- / Stable BBB- / Stable

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SLIDE 22

Th Thank ank You You

Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia Directorate of Government Securities Frans Seda building, 4th floor,

  • Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Post Code: 10710

Phone: (021) 3810175

  • Fax. : (021) 3846516

Site: www.djpu.depkeu.go.id