INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON ECONOMICS AND MARKETING OF TROPICAL AND AND MARKETING OF TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL FRUITS SUBTROPICAL FRUITS

16 16-

• 18 July 2007

18 July 2007 PWTC PWTC Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

The Global Supply and Demand The Global Supply and Demand Prospects of Tropical Fruits Prospects of Tropical Fruits

A presentation by : A presentation by : Kaison Kaison Chang, Chang, Secretary, FAO Sub Secretary, FAO Sub-

• Group on

Group on Tropical Fruits Tropical Fruits

The Global Supply and The Global Supply and Demand Prospects of Demand Prospects of Tropical Fruits Tropical Fruits

Current Situation

• Data Source - Annual questionnaire,

supplemented by FAOSTAT and COMTRADE

Medium Term

• Dynamic time series models used

• Tropical fruits are widely perceived by

Tropical fruits are widely perceived by developing countries as representing viable developing countries as representing viable

• ptions for diversification
• ptions for diversification
• Future international trade prospects

Future international trade prospects are subject to uncertainties, some of which are subject to uncertainties, some of which derive from the very success of export derive from the very success of export efforts of the pioneers in the field efforts of the pioneers in the field

• In particular, diversification into

In particular, diversification into tropical fruit has in some cases been tropical fruit has in some cases been encouraged without sufficient knowledge of encouraged without sufficient knowledge of potential market outlets, with resultant potential market outlets, with resultant adverse price effects for all. adverse price effects for all.

1999 - 01 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total

58000 60000 62000 64000 66000 68000 70000 72000

Tropical Fruits Tropical Fruits -

• Production

Production

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes)

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Mango Minor Pineapple Papaya Avocado

Tropical Fruits Production Tropical Fruits Production 2005 2005

(Thousand tonnes)

Share of Fruit Production by Share of Fruit Production by Region Region -

• 2005

2005

Asia LAC Africa Oceania

Minor Fruit Production Minor Fruit Production -

• 2005

2005

(Thousand Tonnes) (Thousand Tonnes)

5000 10000 15000 20000 Durian Rambuttan Guava Total

Durian Production Durian Production – – 2005 2005

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia

Rambutan Rambutan Production Production – – 2005 2005

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia

Guava Production Guava Production -

• 2005

2005

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 India Pakistan

Trade Value Trade Value – – 2005 2005

(US $ million) (US $ million) 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Tropical Fruits Bananas apples

• ranges

pears

Major Fresh Tropical Fruits Exports Value

550 1100

Pineapples Mangoes Papaya Avocados

2003 2004 2005 Million US $

Fresh Tropical Fruits Exports Fresh Tropical Fruits Exports

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1999-01 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Mangoes Pineapples Avocados Papaya

Fresh Tropical Fruits Imports Fresh Tropical Fruits Imports

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes) 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1999-01 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Mangoes Pineapples Avocados Papaya

MEDIUM MEDIUM-

• TERM OUTLOOK

TERM OUTLOOK

• Dynamic time series models used for projections

Dynamic time series models used for projections

• Assumptions included :

Assumptions included :

• normal weather conditions would prevail

normal weather conditions would prevail

• past trends in planted areas, yields, GDP growth and

past trends in planted areas, yields, GDP growth and population would continue. population would continue.

• Adjustments made to the forecast results to reflect

Adjustments made to the forecast results to reflect current trends, policies and future market prospects current trends, policies and future market prospects

• Projections do not account for processed fruit, due to

Projections do not account for processed fruit, due to lack of trade information and conversion factors lack of trade information and conversion factors between fresh and processed forms between fresh and processed forms

Projected Production to 2014 Projected Production to 2014

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes) 64000 66000 68000 70000 72000 74000 76000 78000 80000 82000 84000 2005 2014

Projected Production by Projected Production by Variety Variety -

• 2014

2014

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes) Mango Pineapple Papaya Avocado

Projected Share of Mango Projected Share of Mango Production by Region Production by Region – – 2014 2014

Asia LAC Africa Other

Projected Share of Pineapple Projected Share of Pineapple Production by Region Production by Region – – 2014 2014

Asia LAC Africa Other

Projected Share of Papaya Projected Share of Papaya Production by Region Production by Region – – 2014 2014

Asia LAC Africa Other

Projected Share of Avocado Projected Share of Avocado Production by Region Production by Region – – 2014 2014

Asia LAC Africa Other

Projected Import Demand by Projected Import Demand by 2014 2014

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Developed Developing Total

Projected Import Demand by Projected Import Demand by Variety Variety

(Thousand tonnes) (Thousand tonnes)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Pineapple Mango Papaya Avocado Total

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

1.

• 1. Data Constraints

Data Constraints

• Constraint to supply and demand

Constraint to supply and demand analyses analyses

• Lack of international standards

Lack of international standards – – difficult difficult to compare prices to compare prices

• Re minor fruits

Re minor fruits -

• unless the value of trade

unless the value of trade

• f an individual fruit exceeded US $50
• f an individual fruit exceeded US $50

million, statistics will continue to be million, statistics will continue to be aggregated aggregated – – World Customs World Customs Organization Organization. .

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS -

• Contd

Contd

2.

• 2. Increasing share of fresh fruit

Increasing share of fresh fruit

• Advances in post harvest technology

Advances in post harvest technology

• Highly efficient logistics

Highly efficient logistics

• Price premiums based on quality have

Price premiums based on quality have replaced novelty based premiums replaced novelty based premiums

• Hikes in oil prices have eroded profit

Hikes in oil prices have eroded profit margins margins

• Traders reluctant to pass on increased

Traders reluctant to pass on increased costs to retailers because of intense costs to retailers because of intense competition in a highly elastic market competition in a highly elastic market

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS -

• Contd

Contd

3.

• 3. Medium Term

Medium Term

• projections suggest that demand will

projections suggest that demand will continue to grow strongly continue to grow strongly

• Supply per se is not a major constraint to

Supply per se is not a major constraint to international trade, as only 5 percent of international trade, as only 5 percent of production is actually exported production is actually exported

• Importance of quality in an increasingly

Importance of quality in an increasingly crowded international fruit market has led to crowded international fruit market has led to major initiatives major initiatives

• Major challenges in managing the field

Major challenges in managing the field-

• to

to-

• market

market-

• supply chain, for both fresh and

supply chain, for both fresh and processed products processed products

• Should find a proper balance between cost

Should find a proper balance between cost and demand when meeting standards and demand when meeting standards

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS -

• Contd

Contd

4.

• 4. Policy Issues

Policy Issues

• Phytosanitary measures are of concern

Phytosanitary measures are of concern

• Although market access and sanitary

Although market access and sanitary issues are of importance, compliance issues are of importance, compliance is not as problematic is not as problematic

• Challenges in WTO on scientific and

Challenges in WTO on scientific and equivalency grounds are common equivalency grounds are common

• Cost of treating fruit for exports could

Cost of treating fruit for exports could be a limiting factor be a limiting factor

• Must be clearly linked to supply

Must be clearly linked to supply

• utputs
• utputs