INTERIM RESULTS
TO 31 DECEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016
INTERIM RESULTS TO 31 DECEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016 DISCLAIMER - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
INTERIM RESULTS TO 31 DECEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016 DISCLAIMER & IMPORTANT NOTICE This presentation document (hereinafter "this document") has been prepared by Green REIT plc (the Company) and Green Property REIT Ventures
TO 31 DECEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016
This presentation document (hereinafter "this document") has been prepared by Green REIT plc (the “Company”) and Green Property REIT Ventures Limited (“Green”), the Company’s investment manager, for information purpose only. This document has been prepared in good faith but the information contained in it has not been the subject of a verification
Green or any of their respective shareholders, directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents or any other persons as to the accuracy, fairness or sufficiency of the information, projections, forecasts or opinions contained in this presentation. In particular, the market data in this document has been sourced from third parties. Save in the case of fraud, no liability is accepted for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the information or opinions in this document. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue,” “target” or “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events
looking statements. No representation or warranty is made as to the achievement or reasonableness of and no reliance should be placed on such forward-looking statements. There is no guarantee that the Company will generate a particular rate
2
One Albert Quay l Cork
1.
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Stephen Vernon
Chairman Green Property REIT Ventures
Summary financial results 31 December 2015:
Highlights since year end:
at the last set of results, and following the acquisition of Central Park
in our weighted average unexpired lease term (WAULT) to 7.3 years1
4
One Albert Quay l Cork City
(1) Vodafone re-gear agreed – deed of variation engrossed on 10th February 2016, signed by Green REIT plc on 19th February 2016, and expecting Vodafone to countersign by 26th February 2016
Economy:
in the recovery. Still fastest growth economy in Europe
polls
Real Estate Market:
unsustainable, however market conditions remain favourable
contraction which has dominated to date
mass speculative development, however still conscious that take up is at historic highs
longer end of the interest rate curve remaining low
5
CGI of 32 Molesworth Street l Dublin 2
One Albert Quay l Cork City
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
3.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Niall O’Buachalla
Chief Operating Officer Green Property REIT Ventures
€685.0m €727.8m €807.1m €899.3m
€961.5m
Net Equity Raised 30/06/2014 31/12/2014 30/06/2015 31/12/2015
NAV
2015
2015
Profit for the 6 months
Property Value
Central Park and first payment on One Albert Quay included
Dividend Plan
producing in 2018
7
NAV Build-up 1 NAV Analysis (cents per share)
(1) Including Green REIT plc’s 50% share of Central Park property value (2) Expressed as a % of NAV +19%
+7%
132.1 6.4 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.9
141.2
Net Assets per Share at 30.06.15 Investment Properties Revaluation JV Property Revaluation Net Rental Profit - Investment Properties Net Rental Profit - JV Property Performance Fee Reserve Dividends Paid Net Assets per share at 31.12.2015 CENTS PER SHARE
+7%
+40%
8
6 months to 31 December 2015 €’000 6 months to 31 December 2014 €’000 Gross Rent 24,170 16,085 Property Outgoings (1,280) (1,000) Net Rent 22,890 15,085 Share of Rental Profit - Central Park JV 2,694 2,604 IM Base Fee (4,652) (3,836) IM Performance Fee (5,800) (5,000) Admin Expenses (1,636) (700) Operating Profit 13,496 8,153 Net Finance Costs (949) (212) Net Rental Profit 12,547 7,941 Movement in Fair Values: 100% Owned Properties 43,246 45,494 Central Park JV Property 11,306 20,895 Total Fair Value Movement 54,552 66,389 Net Profit 67,099 74,330 Basic earnings per share (cents) 10.0 11.1 EPRA earnings per share (cents) 1.9 1.2
Summary Income Statement July to December 2015 - Rental Profit
With Central Park
6 months to 31 December 2015 €’000 6 months to 31 December 2014 €’000 Rent 28,515 20,201 Operating Expenses (1,585) (1,046) Net Rent 26,930 19,155 IM Base Fee (4,652) (3,836) IM Performance Fee (5,800) (5,000) Admin Expenses (1,721) (750) Finance Costs (2,212) (1,628) Net Profit 12,547 7,941
6 months to 31.12.2015 6 months to 31.12.2014 €MM Cent per share €MM Cent per share Net Rental Profit 12.6 1.9 7.9 1.2 Revaluation Uplifts 54.5 8.1 66.4 9.9 Profit for the Period 67.1 10.0 74.3 11.1
EPS Analysis
+52% +66%
+58%
9
31.12.15 as a result of:
i.
ii.
increase of €80m to fund the acquisition of the balance of Central Park (Barclays)
iii.
increase of €22.2m to fund the acquisition One Albert Quay in Cork (Barclays)
22.02.2016
and on our development pipeline of €110m
considered
At 30 June 2015 At 31 December 2015 Central Park & 1AQ Total Including Central Park & 1AQ
TOTAL GEARING €MM €MM €MM €MM Total Debt 95.7
104.7
179.2
283.9
Total Assets 1,011.9 1,089.9 188.1 1,278.0 Total Gearing 9.5%
9.6% 22.2%
(where Total Assets is based on Central Park proportionately consolidated)
PROPERTY LTV Total Debt 95.7 104.7 179.2 283.9 Property Value 968.3 1,034.2 188.1 1,222.3 Property LTV 9.9% 10.1% 23.2%
Debt Analysis Gearing Analysis
Total Debt €MM Interest Cost (per annum) Annual Interest €MM Gearing - Property Only Hedged Weighted Average Maturity
At 31.12.2015 104.7 2.7% 2.8 10.1% 72% 2.6 years At 22.02.2016 283.9 2.5% 7.2 23.2% 53% 2.7 years
Aerial view of George’s Quay l Dublin 2
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Pat Gunne
Chief Executive Green Property REIT Ventures
INM & Mount Street, €14.6m INM & Mount Street, €16.8m, +15% INM & Mount Street, €22.6m, +35% INM & Mount Street, €29.0m, +28% INM & Mount Street, €33.1m, +14% INM & Mount Street, €33.1m 2 Burlington Rd €47.5m 2 Burlington Rd €60.0m, +26% 2 Burlington Rd €63.8m, +6% 2 Burlington Rd €69.8m, +9% 2 Burlington Rd €72.3m, +4% 2 Burlington Rd €72.3m Project Arc €129.4m Project Arc €151.5m +17% Project Arc €167.8m +11% Project Arc €182.7m +9% Project Arc €195.5m +7% Project Arc, €44.1m Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €26.3m Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €29.6m, +13% Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €34.8m, +18% Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €40.6m, +17% Molesworth Street, €23.4m Central Park 50% €116.9m Central Park 50% €137.8m +18% Central Park 50% €151.0m +10% Central Park 50% €165.9m +10% Central Park 50% €165.9m Harcourt Rd & St, €31.4m Harcourt Rd & St, €31.9m, +2% Harcourt Rd & St, €33.4m, +5% Harcourt Rd & St, €34.3m, +3% Harcourt Rd & St, €34.3m Dawson Street, €24.5m Dawson Street, €24.6m Dawson Street, €25.7m, +4% Dawson Street, €25.7m George's Quay & Court €282.3m George's Quay & Court €318.3m George's Quay & Court €333.3m George's Quay & Court €333.3m Westend €122.2m Westend €124.9m Westend €133.7m Westend €133.7m Central Park 50% (balance) €165.9m 1AQ (closed), €22.2m 1AQ (pending), €30.4m
€m €200m €400m €600m €800m €1000m €1200m Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Value €m George’s Quay GQ Block E&F George’s Court
Westend Shopping ParkDawson Street (CGI) Arena Centre Globe RP Parkway RP Fitzwilliam Hall Classon House Horizon Parnell Car Park College Green College Green 2 Burlington Rd INM Building Mount Street Block H Central Park (CGI)
11
(1) Valuations are net of costs. Per valuation report at the stated dates (2) One Albert Quay “1AQ” revised acquisition price of €52.6 million (net of costs) assumed – contract closed on €22.m (42%) with the balance €30.4m (58%) expected to close by Q2 2016 (3) Target sales consist of eight assets, six of which are on market. See slide 24 for more details
Portfolio Value 1
€1.25bn
(Incl. Albert Quay2)
€1.03bn
Project Arc Project Sapphire
Target Sales3 €168.6m Project Sapphire €404.5m Project Sapphire €443.1m +10% Project Sapphire €467.0m +5% Central Park Molesworth Street Ormond Building Harcourt Rd (CGI) Harcourt St One Albert Quay Central Park (CGI)
INM & Mount Street, €2.1m INM & Mount Street, €2.1m INM & Mount Street, €2.1m INM & Mount Street, €2.1m INM & Mount Street, €2.2m INM & Mount Street, €2.2m 2 Burlington Rd €4.2m 2 Burlington Rd €4.2m 2 Burlington Rd €4.2m 2 Burlington Rd €4.2m 2 Burlington Rd €4.2m 2 Burlington Rd €4.2m Project Arc €11.2m Project Arc €11.4m Project Arc €12.0m Project Arc €11.9m Project Arc €12.0m Project Arc, €1.6m Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €1.4m Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €1.7m Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €1.6m Molesworth St & Ormond Bldg €1.7m Molesworth St, €0.6m Central Park 50% €7.9m Central Park 50% €7.9m Central Park 50% €8.9m Central Park 50% €8.9m Central Park 50% €9.0m Harcourt Rd & St, €2.3m Harcourt Rd & St, €2.3m Harcourt Rd & St, €2.3m Harcourt Rd & St, €2.3m Harcourt Rd & St, €1.0m Dawson Street, €1.1m Dawson Street, €1.0m Dawson Street, €0.0m George's Quay & Court €15.9m George's Quay & Court €16.1m George's Quay & Court €16.0m George's Quay & Court €16.5m Westend €7.5m Westend €7.6m Westend €8.0m Westend €7.6m Central Park 50% (balance) €9.0m 1AQ (closed), €1.8m 1AQ (pending), €2.2m
€m €10m €20m €30m €40m €50m €60m €70m Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Contracted Rent €m pa
12
(1) Per valuation report at the stated dates. Q1 2016 rental value as at February 2016 and reflect new lettings completed since 31 December 2015 (2) One Albert Quay current contracted rent €1.8m pa with a potential to reach €4m pa when fully let
Contracted Rent (pa) & Key Tenants 1 2
€67.3 m €55.3 m €55.7 m
Target Sales €11.6m
€7.3m €4.5m €3.5m €3.4m €3.4m €2.7m €2.4m €1.9m €1.7m €1.7m €1.4m 10.7 1.8 11.2 4.6 10.7 4.7 15.7 2.6 12.0 2.2 6.3
4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 €0m €1m €2m €3m €4m €5m €6m €7m €8m
Vodafone Ireland Allied Irish Bank Fidelity OPW Pioneer Ulster Bank Woodies/Grafton Group Northern Trust Tyco Merrill Lynch GAM
Central Park 2 Burlington Rd GQ Blk E&F Mount St GQ Blk A Central Park Arena Centre George’s Court One Albert Quay Central Park
13
(1) Rent and WAULT as at February 2016 – the above reflects new lettings and re-gears completed since 31 December 2015. Vodafone re-gear agreed – deed of variation engrossed on 10th February 2016, signed by Green REIT plc on 19th February 2016, and expecting Vodafone to countersign by 26th February 2016 (2) One Albert Quay current contracted rent €1.8m pa with a potential to reach €4m pa when fully let
As % of Total Group Rent:
11% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
By Contracted Rent as at February 2016 1 2
50%
No of property:
1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1
Top 10 tenants paying
Aerial view of George’s Quay l Dublin 2
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Pat Gunne
Chief Executive Green Property REIT Ventures
Jan 2018 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
76-78 Harcourt St Q1 2017 (E) 24,382 sq. ft. Rent €1.0mGQ Blk E&F Q2 2016 (B) 41,302 sq. ft. Rent €1.9m
15
(1) Showing leases with an annual rent over €0.5 million/ Excludes short term licences/ Date of Analysis 30 June 2015 (2) Central Park – Rent represents Green REIT plc’s 50% share. Green REIT plc has since acquired the JV partner’s interest of 50%
Central Park Q1 2018 (B) 74,215 sq. ft. Rent €0.9m4&5 Harcourt Rd Q4 2015 (E) Rent €1.3m
Central Park Q4 2018 (B) ** 263,000 sq. ft. Rent €3.7m GQ Block A Q2 2017 (B) 62,782 sq. ft. Rent €3.4m 2 Burlington Road Q2 2017 (B) 85,266 sq. ft. Rent €4.2m
Arena Centre Q1 2018 (B) 63,586 sq. ft. Rent €1.4m
84-93 Mount St Q1 2016 (E) 49,353 sq. ft. Rent €1.7m
GQ Blk E&F Q3 2016 (B) 26,444 sq. ft. Rent €1.3m
Legend Expiry Break
Redevelopment
George’s Court Q3 2016 (E) 16,255 sq. ft. Rent €0.8mGeorge’s Court Q3 2018 (B) 44,380 sq. ft. Rent €1.8m
GQ Blk A Q2 2017 (B) 8,344 sq. ft. Rent €0.5m GQ Blk A Q2 2017 (B) 8,473 sq. ft. Rent €0.5mGQ Blk A Q1 2017 (B) 16,734 sq. ft. Rent €1.0m
between 2016-2018 now secured
* As a % of 2016-2018 total (€29.3m pa) on 30 June 2015 ** Vodafone re-gear agreed – deed of variation engrossed on 10th February 2016, signed by Green REIT plc on 19th February 2016, and expecting Vodafone to countersign by 26th February 2016
€0.0m €10.0m €20.0m €30.0m €40.0m €50.0m €60.0m €70.0m
Jun-2015 Feb-2016
16
53%
2016 - 2018 Beyond 2019
25%
2016 - 2018 Beyond 2019
€65.1 m €55.7 m
75% 42%
+33%
(1) As a percentage of contracted rent per annum at the stated dates. Vodafone re-gear agreed – deed of variation engrossed on 10th February 2016, signed by Green REIT plc on 19th February 2016, and expecting Vodafone to countersign by 26th February 2016 (2) One Albert Quay current contracted rent €1.8m pa with a potential to reach €4m pa when fully let
Beyond 2019 2016-2018 Was Now Was Now
New leases/ re-gears New leases/ re-gears
€7.5m pa
11% of group rent
€4.8m pa
7% of group rent
Block A Block E&F
17
€11.9m
€12.3m
3.0 yrs
8.6 yrs
Total Contracted Rent (pa) WAULT
Jun-15 Jun-15 Feb-16 Feb-2016
5 new leases, €1.6m (21%) 1 re-gear, €3.4m (45%) 3 new leases, €3.9m (82%)
since 30 June 2015 with WAULT
Tenant Building Type Contracted Rent €m pa % of Group Rent Term (years) Unexpired Term 2 (pre) Unexpired Term 2 (post)
Comments Block E Central Park Re-gear4 7.30 11% +8
2.8 10.8
Block A George’s Quay Re-gear 3.38 5% +10
1.3 11.3
€52-€57 psf collar & cap Arena Centre Dublin 24 Re-gear 1.41 2% +5
2.1 7.0
84-93 Mount Street Dublin 2 Re-gear 1.74 3% +5
0.1 5.1
Lease extended by 5 years 2 tenants Various Re-gears 0.89 1% +2
10.4 12.4
Total 14.72 23%
9.7
Block E&F George’s Quay New letting 3.47 5% 20
Block A George’s Quay New letting 0.88 1% 15
16 tenants Various New lettings 1.18 2%
5 short term licences paying €0.14m rent 4 tenants Various Renewals 0.22 <1%
2 short term licences paying €0.02m rent Total 5.75 9%
18
1) Lease events/ lettings secured since 30 June 2015 / Includes short term lettings 2) Unexpired Term/ WAULT is the rent-weighted average remaining term on leases to lease expiry/ break date (whichever comes first). Excludes Residential where applicable 3) As a % of current portfolio contracted rent of €65.1m pa 4) Vodafone re-gear agreed – deed of variation engrossed on 10th February 2016, signed by Green REIT plc on 19th February 2016, and expecting Vodafone to countersign by 26th February 2016
Aerial view of George’s Quay l Dublin 2
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Pat Gunne
Chief Executive Green Property REIT Ventures
One Molesworth Street 32 & rear of Molesworth Street 4-5 Harcourt Road Block H Central Park Horizon Logistics Park
20 Planning Construction 90,000 sq. ft. (Letttable) Completion & Void Income producing ERV €5.0m Planning Construction 28,374 sq. ft (Letttable) Completion & Void Income producing ERV €1.45m Planning Construction 45,000 sq. ft. (Letttable) 2 Completion & Void Income producing ERV €2.3m
Planning
Construction 150,000 sq. ft. (Letttable) (100%) 2 Completion & Void Income producing ERV €4.35m
Planning
Construction 66,000 sq. ft. 3
(2 units)
Completion & Void Income producing
ERV €0.35m
TODAY
(1) Contingent on obtaining the necessary planning and board approvals which are outside of the control of the Manager (2) Estimated rent on completion and lettable areas revised in February 2016 (3) Comprises two new buildings – 44,000 sq. ft. to hold and 22,000 sq. ft. is complete and was sold in Q4 2015. ERV represents one unit (44,000 sq. ft.) Original commencement
Office Industrial One Molesworth Street Dublin 2 4 & 5 Harcourt Road Dublin 2 32 & Rear of Molesworth Street Dublin 2 Block H, Central Park Dublin 18 Unit 1, Horizon Logistics Park Dublin Airport
Sub Total – Office
Under Construction Planning Granted Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction
Area Existing NIA (sq. ft.) 86,800 42,400 32,400 12,000 New GIA (sq. ft.) 379,292 120,000 69,000 43,292 147,000 44,0006 Lettable Area (sq. ft.)/ Net Ratio 313,374 83% 88,000 73% 50,000 72% 28,374 66% 147,000 100% 44,0006 100% Cost Site Cost €48m €153 psf5 €24m €273 psf5 €16m €320 psf5 €4m €141 psf5 €4m €27 psf5 €0.3m €6.8 psf5 All in Build Cost² €117m €373 psf5 €35m €398 psf5 €22m €440 psf5 €12m €423 psf5 €48m €327 psf5 €3.9m €89 psf5 Rent Rent Estimate³ €12.6m €40 psf5
(ex cars)
€4.5m €50 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€2.5m €48.5 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€1.3m €44 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€4.3m €25 psf5
(€2,000 pcs)
€0.35m €8.0 psf5 Void 12 – 18 months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 18 Months 12 Months Income Producing 2018/19 2018/19 2018/19 2018/19 2018 2017/18 Return Net Development Value (NDV)4 €212m €676 psf5 €81m €920 psf5 €45m €900 psf5 €23m €811 psf5 €63m €429 psf5 €4.5m €102 psf5 Yield on Cost 7.6% 7.6% 6.6% 8.1% 8.3% 8.3% Yield on Value 5.4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7%
Value v. Cost +28%
+37% +18% +44% +21% +7% 21
100% interest in Central Park
(1) Contingent on obtaining the necessary planning and board approvals. Financial appraisals subject to change. Central Park financial analysis accounts for Green REIT’s 100% interest (2) Estimated build cost plus development levies and fees. Excludes financing and tenant incentives (3) Estimated rent on completion (4) Net present value to allow for void on NDV and notional purchaser’s costs of 4.46% (5) On lettable area (6) Figures & appraisal represent one unit (44,000 sq. ft.) which is constructed to hold. Unit 2 (22,000 sq. ft.) was completed and sold in Q4 2015
Office Industrial One Molesworth Street Dublin 2 4 & 5 Harcourt Road Dublin 2 32 & Rear of Molesworth Street Dublin 2 Block H, Central Park Dublin 18 Unit 1, Horizon Logistics Park Dublin Airport
Sub Total – Office
Under Construction Planning Granted Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction
Area Existing NIA (sq. ft.) 86,800 42,400 32,400 12,000 New GIA (sq. ft.) 379,292 120,000 69,000 43,292 147,000 44,0006 Lettable Area (sq. ft.)/ Net Ratio 313,374 83% 88,000 73% 50,000 72% 28,374 66% 147,000 100% 44,0006 100% Cost Site Cost €48m €153 psf5 €24m €273 psf5 €16m €320 psf5 €4m €141 psf5 €4m €27 psf5 €0.3m €6.8 psf5 All in Build Cost² €117m €373 psf5 €35m €398 psf5 €22m €440 psf5 €12m €423 psf5 €48m €327 psf5 €3.9m €89 psf5 Rent Rent Estimate³ €12.6m €40 psf5
(ex cars)
€4.5m €50 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€2.5m €48.5 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€1.3m €44 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€4.3m €25 psf5
(€2,000 pcs)
€0.35m €8.0 psf5 Void 12 – 18 months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 18 Months 12 Months Income Producing 2018/19 2018/19 2018/19 2018/19 2018 2017/18 Return Net Development Value (NDV)4 €212m
€676 psf5
€81m
€920 psf5
€45m
€900 psf5
€23m
€811 psf5
€63m
€429 psf5
€4.5m
€102 psf5
Yield on Cost 7.6% 7.6% 6.6% 8.1% 8.3% 8.3% Yield on Value 5.4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7%
Value v. Cost +28%
+37% +18% +44% +21% +7% 22
100% interest in Central Park
€38m
€422 psf
€120m
€383 psf
€13m
€458 psf
63,000 45,000 90,000 €21m
€467 psf
€4.2m
€95 psf
376,292 €101m
€1,122 psf
€241m
€769 psf
€27m
€952 psf
€44m
€978 psf
€69m
€460 psf
€5.3m
€120 psf
7.8% 6.0% 8.4% 5.5% 8.5% 4.75% 6.2% 4.75% 8.1% 4.5% 7.8% 5.0% 18% 33% 59% 19% 63% 44% €5.0m
€55 psf
€13.1m
€42 psf
€1.45m
€50 psf
€2.3m
€50 psf
€4.35m
€25 psf
Current Estimate v Original Underwrite 7
(1) Contingent on obtaining the necessary planning and board approvals. Financial appraisals subject to change. Central Park financial analysis accounts for Green REIT’s 100% interest (2) Estimated build cost plus development levies and fees. Excludes financing and tenant incentives (3) Estimated rent on completion (4) Net present value to allow for void on NDV and notional purchaser’s costs of 4.46% (5) On lettable area (6) Figures & appraisal represent one unit (44,000 sq. ft.) which is constructed to hold. Unit 2 (22,000 sq. ft.) was completed and sold in Q4 2015 (7) On an overall basis (5 projects). Current Estimate as at February 2016. See slide 21 for original underwrite
150,000 150,000
Aerial view of George’s Quay l Dublin 2
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Pat Gunne
Chief Executive Green Property REIT Ventures
Rationale for selling:
gearing of 25%
crystallising value enhanced on early acquisitions
flexibility by releasing distributable reserves
Arena Centre 37% Ormond Building 10% Classon House 13% Parnell Car Park 6% Globe Retail Park 15% Parkway Retail Park 16% College Green 3%
24
(1) Rent as at February 2016 (2) Purchase price and valuation are net of costs. Valuation as at 31 December 2015
On market Rent roll €1.8m pa 7 tenants Purchase price €15.5m
Globe Retail Park
On market Rent roll €1.8m pa 8 tenants Purchase price €14.0m
Parkway Retail Park 1-2, 4-5 College Green Pending
On market Rent roll €4.6m pa 12 tenants (ex. Residential) Purchase price €43.6m
Arena Centre
On market Rent roll €1.2m pa 11 tenants Purchase price €9.6m
Ormond Building
On market Rent roll €1.3m pa 8 tenants Purchase price €10.5m
Classon House
On market Rent roll €0.7m pa 1 tenant Purchase price €7.0m
Parnell Car Park
Purchase price €104.1m Dec-2015 Valuation €168.6m
8 assets account for
13% of portfolio value +62%
v Purchase price 2
€55.3m
€9.0m
€13.5m
Contracted 31.12.2015 Investment to development 50% Central Park (acquisition Jan-16) One Albert Quay (current + projections) Target Sales 2016 Development (2016 Estimate) Potential Rent (Post sales/ development)
€1034.2m €165.9m
€179.1m
€1263.2m
Value 31.12.2015 50% Central Park (acquisition Jan-16) One Albert Quay (acquisition) Target Sales 2016 Development (Net value increase) Value (post sales/ development)
25
Feb 2016
(100% CP & 1AQ)
Post sales
(ex. Developments)
variance Portfolio Value 1 (Net)
€1252.7m €1084.1m
Contracted Rent (pa) 2
€67.2m €55.6m
ERV (Let only) (pa) 2
€69.1m €59.2m
ERV (Vacant) (pa)
€1.0m €0.4m
WAULT 5 (years)
7.3 7.1
% Prime (by value)
83% 96%
+16% Investment Yield 1 3 (on expiry of rent free)
5.5% 5.3%
Portfolio Yield 1 3 (on expiry of rent free)
5.1% 4.9%
Lettable Space (sq. ft.)
2.7m 2.0m
% EPRA Occupancy (by ERV)
98.5% 99.2%
+0.7%
Portfolio Value Build-up 1 2 Contracted Rent Build-up 3 4
€52.6m (1) Valuations are net of costs as at 31 December 2015. One Albert Quay revised acquisition price of €52.6 million (net of costs) assumed – contract closed on €22.m (42%) with the balance €30.4m (58%) expected to close by Q2 2016 (2) Development properties are: 1) Dawson Street 2) Harcourt Road 3) Molesworth Street 4) Central Park (Blk H) and 5) Horizon Logistics Park // Pre-development values as per 31 December 2015 valuations (€67.2m) // Post NDV at February 2016 (€246.3m) (3) One Albert Quay rent of €4m pa assumed (4) Target sales consist of eight assets, six of which are on market. See slide 24 for more details (5) Vodafone re-gear agreed – deed of variation engrossed on 10th February 2016, signed by Green REIT plc on 19th February 2016, and expecting Vodafone to countersign by 26th February 2016
+22% +25%
€4.0m
€69.1m
Progress photo Block H l Central Park l Dublin 18
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
4.
5.
SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
Caroline McCarthy
Chief Investment Officer Green Property REIT Ventures
6.3% 0.2% 7.0%
4.8%
3.3%
1.9%
2.0% 2006 2012 2015e 2016f
Ireland EU-28 Average Source: CSO, Goodbody and Eurostat, 2016 4.5% 14.7% 8.8%
8.0%
8.2% 10.5% 9.1%
9.1% 2006 2012 2015 2016f
Ireland EU-28 Average
Debt-to-GDP GDP Growth % Unemployment Rate
27
Source: MSCI, 2016 (bottom graph) 23.6% 120.2% 99.4%
92.8%
60.4% 83.8% 87.8%
95.0% 2006 2012 2015e 2016f
Ireland EU-28 Average
Irish unemployment back below EU average Irish Debt to GDP back below EU average Ireland back to being fastest growth EU economy
Source: CSO, ESRI and Eurostat, 2016 (2016 forecast for Ireland as per ESRI) Source: CSO and Eurostat, 2016
14.1% 8.7% 9.0% 6.3% 15.7% 6.0% 1.3% 2.8% Private Equity 53.1% Private Equity 47.7% Private Equity 36.1% Private Equity 28.1% Institutional / REIT 31.8% Institutional / REIT 45.6% Institutional / REIT 49.5% 9.5% 4.2% 4.6% 8.0% 7.6% 1.6% 3.5% 5.2% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2012 2013 2014 2015
% Private Individual Private Syndicate Private Equity Institutional / REIT Other Confidential
Transition of buyers in the Irish market
28
Source: IPD, 2016 Source: Savills, 2016
Irish Prime Yields 2000 - 2015 Significant rental growth driving high returns in Dublin
Source: CBRE Research, 2016
Core capital replacing private equity Rental growth in all sectors Yield contraction bottoming out
Prime Headline Office Rents to reach €65 by end 2016
Source: Goodbody Research, 2016
Average rental growth to end 2017 forecast to reach €70+ psf
€65psf 2016 €70+ psf 2017
€65psf
Private equity Core capital
Pre-Let 0.9m sq ft Pre-Let 0.7m sq ft 3.2m sq ft 1.6m sq ft 0.9m sq ft 2.4m sq ft 3.0m sq ft 3.5m sq ft 3.8m sq ft 3.6m sq ft 1.2m sq ft 0.3m sq ft 0.0m sq ft 0.0m sq ft 0.0m sq ft 0.3m sq ft 0.6m sq ft Dublin City 0.5m sq ft Under construction 1.2m sq ft Under Construction 0.5m sq ft Suburbs 0.3m sq ft Probable 0.2m sq ft Probable 0.8m sq ft Probable, 0.1m sq ft Possible 0.1m sq ft Possible 1.4m sq ft Possible 0.8m sq ft Unlikely 0.2m sq ft Unlikely 1.0m sq ft 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019-2020*
Millions (sq ft)
29
Potential Office Supply 2016 – 2020 *
2016 – 2020
1.8m
2.3m
2.9m
1.9m
8.9m sq. ft. 16.3m sq. ft. delivered No development
Rents 30-40% Rents 50-60% Rents 100% Rents 75-85%
Probability Analysis “Probable” – 75% probability “Possible” – 50% probability “Unlikely” – 25% probability Source: Green REIT plc, JLL, CBRE, Savills, CIS, 2016 (Historic data 2001 – 2015 obtained from JLL, 2016 – 2020 data obtained from various sources to include CBRE, Savills and CIS) Probability analysis on schemes with planning permission conducted by Green Property REIT Ventures (Investment Manager for Green REIT plc) on February 2016. This is a subjective view by Green Property REIT Ventures. * Details as per planning applications. Subject to change
Source: CBRE, 20161 Capital Dock 2 Microsoft Campus 3 Central Bank HQ 4 Project Wave 5 1 Ballsbridge 6 Baggot Plaza 7 Miesian Plaza 8 One Airport Central 9 10 Block H Central Park 9 Vertium
30
Development Name Address District Promoter Size (sq ft)* % Pre-let Target Completion
1
Capital Dock Sir John Rogerson's Quay Dublin 2/4 Kennedy Wilson 384,167 0% 2018
2
Microsoft Campus South County Business Park South Suburbs Microsoft 376,751 100% 2017
3
Central Bank HQ North Wall Quay Dublin 1/3/7 Central Bank of Ireland 316,007 100% 2016
4
Project Wave North Docklands Dublin 1/3/7 Ballymore Group & Oxley Holdings 304,006 32% 2017
5
1 Ballsbridge Shelbourne Road & Pembroke Road Dublin 2/4 Comers/McHales 209,239 0% 2016
6
Baggot Plaza Baggot Street Dublin 2/4 Kennedy Wilson 184,450 100% 2016
7
Miesian Plaza - Block 1 Baggot Street Dublin 2/4 Remley Developments/ Larry Goodman 173,000 0% 2016
8
One Airport Central Dublin Airport
DAA 172,136 100% 2016
9
Vertium
(Burlington House)
Burlington Road Dublin 2/4 U+I / Ronan Group 165,043 0% 2017
10
Block H – Central Park Leopardstown South Suburbs Green REIT plc 152,067** 0% 2016 Top 10 2,436,866 (6% of market total) Other schemes under construction x 19 1,719,658 (4% of market total) Total Under Construction
4.2m sq. ft. 2.6m sq. ft. (62%) 1.6m sq. ft. (38%) Total speculative pre-let
38% of space under construction pre-let or owner occupied
Pre-let Pre-let Owner Occupied Owner Occupied
Remley Dev./ Larry Goodman
Source: Green REIT plc, JLL, CBRE, Savills, CIS, 2016 (Historic data 2001 – 2015 obtained from JLL, 2016 – 2020 data obtained from various sources to include CBRE, Savills and CIS) Probability analysis on schemes with planning permission conducted by Green Property REIT Ventures (Investment Manager for Green REIT plc) on February 2016. This is a subjective view by Green Property REIT Ventures. * Details as per planning applications. Subject to change **Per initial planning application. The floor area has since changed 32% pre-let
Owner Occupied
31
Development Name Address District Promoter Size (sq ft)* % Pre- let Target Completion
“PROBABLE”
1
ESB Headquarters 13-30 Lower Fitzwilliam Street Dublin 2/4 ESB 397,371 2/3 ESB 2018
2
Bolands Mills Dublin Docklands South Docks NAMA 309,806 0% 2018
3
Pioneer Building Elm Park Ballsbridge Dublin 2/4 Starwood 216,290 0% 2017
4
4-5 Harcourt Road Dublin 2 Dublin 2/4 Green REIT plc 80,256** 0% 2018
5
12-16 Harcourt Terrace Lane Dublin 2 Dublin 2/4 Oakmount/ McKillen 70,999 0% 2019
“POSSIBLE”
6
10 Spencer Dock 58-59 North Wall Quay Dublin 1/3/7 NAMA 425,285 0% 2018
7
5 Hanover Quay Docklands Dublin 2/4 NAMA/Bennetts/ OakTree 237,990 0% 2018
8
Harcourt Square Phase 1 Corner Harcourt Street Dublin 2/4 Hibernia REIT 164,408 0% 2018
9
13-18 City Quay Docklands Dublin 2/4 NAMA/Bennetts/ OakTree 115,260 0% 2017
10
76 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay Docklands Dublin 2/4 NAMA/Bennetts/ OakTree 102,171 0% 2018 Total Planning Granted
4.7m sq. ft. Breakdown by: 1.1m sq. ft. 2.4m sq. ft. 1.2m sq. ft. 23% “Probable” 51% “Possible” 26% “Unlikely”
1 ESB Headquarters 2 Boland Mills 3 Pioneer Building 4 4-5 Harcourt Road 5 12-16 Harcourt Terrace 6 10 Spencer Dock 7 5 Hanover Quay 8 Harcourt Square 9 13-18 City Quay 10 76 SJRQ
Oakmount/ Paddy McKillen
NAMA accounting for 5 out of top 10 but unlikely to develop speculatively to any significant degree
Source: Green REIT plc, JLL, CBRE, Savills, CIS, 2016 (Historic data 2001 – 2015 obtained from JLL, 2016 – 2020 data obtained from various sources to include CBRE, Savills and CIS) Probability analysis on schemes with planning permission conducted by Green Property REIT Ventures (Investment Manager for Green REIT plc) on February 2016. This is a subjective view by Green Property REIT Ventures. * Details as per planning applications. Subject to change **Per initial planning application. The floor area has since changed
2014
2.42m sq. ft.
Total Take up
11.7%
Vacancy
+30%
Rental Growth
Top 10 lettings:
Tenant Take-up (sq ft) Headline Rent € psf Type 129,000 €39 126,376 €45 113,721 Various – 4 deals 102,579 €27.5 85,000 €25 65,305 €15 55,004 €35 51,030 Various – 2 deals 47,312 N/A 45,531 €26 Total Top 10 820,858
32
2015
2.68m sq. ft.
Total Take up
8.7%
Vacancy
+23%
Rental Growth
Top 10 lettings:
Tenant Take-up (sq ft) Headline Rent € psf Type 180,356 €24 130,000 €47 82,374 €10 80,500 €50 69,482 €27 65,955 €55 64,583 €60 60,000 €23 55,017 €45 48,000 €25 Total Top 10 836,267
US FDI Other FDI Gov. related Domestic
2013
1.83m sq. ft.
Total Take up
15.5%
Vacancy
+28%
Rental Growth
Top 10 lettings:
Tenant Take-up (sq ft) Headline Rent € psf Type 122,372 €15 121,567 €35 108,920 €26 96,725 €30 87,000 €17 83,528 Purchase 71,000 €15 56,695 €17 54,993 N/A 50,614 €16.5 Total Top 10 853,414
+11% v 2014 +32% v 2013 +24% v 2012
Source: Green REIT plc, JLL, CBRE, Knight Frank, 2016 (Data on take-up, vacancy and rental growth obtained from CBRE; data on Top 10 tenants obtained from JLL, data on headline rent as per various sources to include JLL, Knight Frank and public press)
Occupier Sector Size Requirement (sq ft) Status Current Location Time on List TMT 40,000+ Inactive – Agreed The One Building
150,000 Active None >3 months Professional Services 120,000 Active Barrow Street >12 months TMT 100,000+ Monitor Watermarque/ Hanover Quay <3 months Health Care/ Pharma 100,000+ Active Elm Park >3 months Professional Services 60,000 Active Earlsfort Centre >12 months TMT 50,000 Active Docklands >6 months TMT 50,000 Active One Grand Parade >6 months TMT 30,000+ Active Various location – short term leases >12 months TMT 40,000 Active St Stephen’s Green <3 months
33
Source: Green REIT plc, CBRE, Knight Frank and Savills, 2016 “TMT” Technology, Media and Telecommunications Legend: US FDI Other FDI Gov. related Domestic
Top 10 Occupiers Analysis:
3 10
2 10
2 10
2 10
Source: Colliers, 2016
34
“CRE” Commercial Real Estate €0.6m €0.6m €0.6m €0.6m €0.9m €1.9m
€3.2m
€1.9m €0.5m €0.1m €0.2m €0.2m €0.5m €1.8m
€4.6m €3.5m 28.8% 8.1% 2.4% 12.4% 11.4% 24.4% 27.2% 9.9%
3.0% 12.9% 39.3% 25.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Investment Volume € billion IPD Total Return %
programme to run through September 2016
Source: CBRE Research and MSCI/ IPD, 2016 (Investment volume data obtained from CBRE Research // Total return data and graph (bottom left) obtained from MSCI/ IPD)
Progress photo of One Molesworth Street l Dublin 2
(Formerly known as 13-17 Dawson St)
1.
HIGHLIGHTS
2.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
3.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
4.
MARKET COMMENTARY
5.
Stephen Vernon
Chairman Green Property REIT Ventures
36
developments becoming income producing in 2018
One Albert Quay l Cork City
(1) Expressed as a % of NAV
CGI One Molesworth Street l Dublin 2
Office Industrial One Molesworth Street Dublin 2 4 & 5 Harcourt Road Dublin 2 32 & Rear of Molesworth Street Dublin 2 Block H, Central Park Dublin 18 Unit 1, Horizon Logistics Park Dublin Airport
Sub Total – Office
Under Construction Planning Granted Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction
Area Existing NIA (sq. ft.) 86,800 42,400 32,400 12,000 New GIA (sq. ft.) 376,292 120,000 63,000 43,292 150,000 44,0006 Lettable Area (sq. ft.)/ Net Ratio 313,374 83% 90,000 75% 45,000 71% 28,374 66% 150,000 100% 44,0006 100% Cost Site Cost €48m €153 psf5 €24m €267 psf5 €16m €356 psf5 €4m €141 psf5 €4m €27 psf5 €0.3m €6.8 psf5 All in Build Cost² €120m €383 psf5 €38m €422 psf5 €21m €467 psf5 €13m €458 psf5 €48m €320 psf5 €4.2m €95 psf5 Rent Rent Estimate³ €13.1m €42 psf5
(ex cars)
€5.0m €55 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€2.3m €50 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€1.45m €50 psf5
(€3,500 pcs)
€4.35m €25 psf5
(€2,000 pcs)
€0.35m €8.0 psf5 Void 12 – 18 months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 18 Months 12 Months Income Producing 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 2017/18 2018 2017/18 Return Net Development Value (NDV)4 €241m €769 psf5 €101m
€1,122 psf5
€44m €978 psf5 €27m €952 psf5 €69m €460 psf5 €5.3m €120 psf5 Yield on Cost 7.8% 8.1% 6.2% 8.5% 8.4% 7.8% Yield on Value 5.0% 4.5% 4.75% 4.75% 5.5% 6.0%
Value v. Cost +44%
+63% +19% +59% +33% +18% 38
On an overall basis7:
(1) Contingent on obtaining the necessary planning and board approvals. Financial appraisals subject to change. Central Park financial analysis accounts for Green REIT’s 100% interest (2) Estimated build cost plus development levies and fees. Excludes financing and tenant incentives (3) Estimated rent on completion (4) Net present value to allow for void on NDV and notional purchaser’s costs of 4.46% (5) On lettable area (6) Figures & appraisal represent one unit (44,000 sq. ft.) which is constructed to hold. Unit 2 (22,000 sq. ft.) was completed and sold in Q4 2015 (7) On an overall basis (5 projects). Current Estimate as at February 2016. See slide 21 for original underwrite