If Africa, Latin America and Asia achieve the agricultural - - PDF document

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If Africa, Latin America and Asia achieve the agricultural - - PDF document

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Technology: Innovation and Disruption 1. Agriculture 11. Lodging 2. AI / jobs 12. Manufacturing 3. Distribution 13. Media 4. Education 14. Medical research 5. Energy 15. Philanthropy 6. Environment 16. Power transmission 7.

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 1

Technology: Innovation and Disruption

1. Agriculture 2. AI / jobs 3. Distribution 4. Education 5. Energy 6. Environment 7. Finance 8. Food 9. Government 10. Health care 11. Lodging 12. Manufacturing 13. Media 14. Medical research 15. Philanthropy 16. Power transmission 17. Retail 18. Security 19. Sports 20. Transportation

If Africa, Latin America and Asia achieve the agricultural productivity of Europe and North America, as many as 500 million workers may be unemployed.

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 2

AeroFarms in Newark, New Jersey, turns out up to two million pounds of harvest per

  • year. The crops – mostly salad

greens – are grown in 12 vertical layers in a 70,000 square-foot former warehouse. AeroFarms in Newark, New Jersey, turns out up to two million pounds of harvest per

  • year. The crops – mostly salad

greens – are grown in 12 vertical layers in a 70,000 square-foot former warehouse.

Vertical Farming Vertical Farming Skilled and Unskilled Jobs in the U.S.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, O*NET, Social Security Administration (2014).

60% 20% 20% Unskilled Semi-skilled Skilled

1950

12% 18% 70% Unskilled Semi-skilled Skilled

Today

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 3

Likelihood U.S. Jobs Will Be Automated

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Frey and Osborne (2013); CEA calculations

Probability of Automation by Hourly Wage

83% 31% 4% < $20/hour $20 - $40/hour > $40/hour

U.S. Jobs with Highly Automatable Skills

Source: Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn (2016) calculations based on the PIAAC 2012.

By Education Level

44% 8% 0%

No HS degree Trade School Graduate Degree

19%

HS Degree

1%

Bachelor’s Degree

6%

AA Degree

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 4

  • Singapore

564

  • Japan

532

  • Canada

527

  • Korea

517

  • Russia

494

  • United Kingdom

492

  • OECD Average

490

  • United States

470

  • Israel

470

  • UAE

427

  • Qatar

402

  • Jordan

380

  • Tunisia

367

How 15-Year-Olds Score in School

Math

  • Singapore

493

  • Japan

538

  • Canada

528

  • Korea

516

  • United Kingdom

509

  • United States

496

  • OECD Average

493

  • Russia

487

  • UAE

437

  • Israel

467

  • Qatar

418

  • Jordan

409

  • Tunisia

386

Science

Source: OECD Programme for International Student Assessment 2015

33% Housing 17% Transportation 13% Food 11% Insurance/pensions 6% Healthcare 5% Entertainment 3% Apparel and services 23% Food 10% Housing 8% Clothing 8% Other 6% Transportation 5% Healthcare 5% Communication

Consumer Spending

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics/CLSA

U.S. Asia

2% Supplemental Education 15% Supplemental Education

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 5

40 Netflix = 1 Blockbuster 40 Netflix = 1 Blockbuster

Blockbuster vs. Netflix – 2002 Market Value

NETFLIX BLOCKBUSTER

$4.5 Billion $0.16 Billion

Blockbuster vs. Netflix – 2018 Market Value

NETFLIX BLOCKBUSTER

$0 $142 Billion

Source: Yahoo Finance 8/16/18

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 6

Traditional Drilling

Spindletop (Beaumont, TX), 1901 Drilling Depth: 1,139 feet

Technology Game Changer

Modern Techniques

Z-44 Chayvo Well - Russia Drilling Depth: 40,502 feet

Renewable Energy Renewable Energy

Source: New Energy Outlook 2017, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

  • Solar energy is already cheaper than coal in the U.S. and
  • Germany. It will soon be cheaper in China, India,

Mexico, UK, Brazil and other countries.

  • 72% of new investment in power generation worldwide

will be in wind and solar plants through 2040.

  • Cost of onshore wind energy generation will fall 47% by

2040; costs of offshore wind energy will drop 71%.

  • This doesn’t factor in environmental benefits.
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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 7

Austria’s Voestalpine Steel Plant Austria’s Voestalpine Steel Plant

Source: New Energy Outlook 2017, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

1960s: 1,000 employees needed to produce 500,000 tons of steel wire annually 2017: 14 employees to match that production

Sources of Electricity Generation

Note: Unspecified sources includes all purchase with unclear original source. Source: California Energy Commission; U.S. Energy Information Administration

1.

Natural gas 34% 50% 39.6%

2.

Coal 30% 0.2% 32.2%

3.

Nuclear 20% 10% 9.7%

4.

Renewable 15% 28% 18.4%

5.

Petroleum/oil 1% 0.2% 0.02%

6.

Unspecified Sources

  • 11.6% --

United States California Texas

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 8

Most-Effective Actions to Reverse Global Warning Most-Effective Actions to Reverse Global Warning

Source: Drawdown (edited by Paul Hawken, 2017)

1.

Refrigerant management 89.7

2.

Wind turbines (onshore) 84.6

3.

Reduced food waste 70.5

4.

Plant-rich diet 66.1

5.

Tropical forests 61.2

6.

Educating girls 59.6

7.

Family planning 59.6

8.

Solar farms 36.9

9.

Silvopasture 31.2

  • 10. Rooftop solar

24.6

CO2 Reduction (gigatons)

Leading Solutions for Food Security Leading Solutions for Food Security

Source: Drawdown (edited by Paul Hawken, 2017)

1.

Reduced food waste

2.

Plant-rich diet

3.

Silvopasture

4.

Regenerative agriculture

5.

Tropical staple trees

6.

Conservation agriculture

7.

Clean cookstoves

8.

Farmland restoration

9.

Improved rice cultivation

  • 10. Multistrata agroforestry
  • 11. System of rice intensification
  • 12. Composting
  • 13. Nutrient management
  • 14. Farmland irrigation
  • 15. Biochar
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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 9

What a Waste! What a Waste!

Methane from food in landfills is 21 times more damaging than CO2.

Source: “Fixing Food,” report by the Barilla Center for Food & Nutrition and The Economist Intelligence Unit

The carbon footprint of food waste accounts for about

  • ne-third of annual emissions from fossil fuels.

A $165 Billion Waste A $165 Billion Waste

In the United States, 40% of all food is wasted – an estimated $165 billion. In the United Kingdom, each family discards, on average, 700 pounds, or $1,170 worth

  • f food each year; that equals

$US 31.7 billion.

Sources: Natural Resources Defense Council; New York Times, “The Economic and Environmental Costs of Wasted Foods”, April 24, 2014

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 10

15% 52% 32%

Sources: FAO

Water: Agriculture Drives Demand Water: Agriculture Drives Demand

How Fresh Water Is Used North America Europe

13% 48% 39%

Industrial Agricultural Domestic

Sources: FAO

Water: Agriculture Drives Demand Water: Agriculture Drives Demand

How Fresh Water Is Used

9% 7% 84%

Sub-Saharan Africa

7% 5% 88%

MENA

7% 11% 81%

E/SE Asia Latin America

19% 10% 71%

Industrial Agricultural Domestic

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 11

Processing and distributing water around the globe is an expensive and often inefficient process. Aging infrastructure and deteriorating pipes and valves can lead to a loss of up to 50% of total volume.

Water Distribution

Source: Drawdown (Paul Hawken) 2017

20th Century Banking

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 12

21st Century Banking 21st Century Banking Harvard Endowment to Lay Off Half Its Staff

“The endowment will shut down its internal hedge funds and let go traders by the middle of the year … “Some alumni and faculty have criticized Harvard for paying its traders too much for returns that have lagged Ivy League peers’. ”

  • The Wall Street Journal

January 25, 2017

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 13

Are ETFs Making Stock Brokers Obsolete?

Source: Yahoo! Finance, Jan. 9, 2013; WSJ.com, Oct. 7, 2016; Forbes, March 26, 2010

The ETF With the 0.00% Fee Actively Managed Mutual Funds Are Obsolete

  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Flows to Active and Passive Funds

US$ Billions

Note: Estimated net flows to U.S. open-end funds. Sources: Morningstar (1/30/2018).

Passively managed Actively managed

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 14

U.S. Meat Production

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Billion pounds

Beef and Pork Poultry

Source: USDA.

Animal-Based vs. Lab-Grown Meat Animal-Based vs. Lab-Grown Meat

Source: CBInsights; Water Footprint Network; Business Insider; Forbes; Food Climate Research Network; Quartz

Cost per pound of meat; usage and emissions

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 15

Meat Leaders Hedge Bets with Plant Protein Meat Leaders Hedge Bets with Plant Protein

Source: CBInsights

Apple and Stanford University - 2015 Apple and Stanford University - 2015

11,000 people signed up for a Stanford University heart-disease study in less than 24 hours. “To get 10,000 people enrolled in a medical study normally, it would take a year and 50 medical centers around the Country. That’s the power of the phone.” – Alan Yeung

Medical Director Stanford Cardiovascular Health

Source: CBInsights, Apple in Healthcare, October 3, 2017

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 16

Largest Lodging Companies, By Room Largest Lodging Companies, By Room

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Hyatt Carlson Hospitality Best Western Choice Hotels Accor Company Wyndham Worldwide Intercontinental Hotels Hilton Worldwide Marriott + Starwood Airbnb

Sources: STR; Hotel Data Conference

Millions

U.S. Cities with the Most Airbnb Listings U.S. Cities with the Most Airbnb Listings

Sources: STR; Hotel Data Conference

% of active Airbnb commercial listings in 2016

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 17

In an Internet Minute In an Internet Minute

Market Cap

Media Companies – New vs. Old UU.S. billions

Apple $1,013 Amazon $936 Alphabet (Google) $869 Microsoft $840 Facebook $522 Alibaba $447 Tencent $407 Netflix $147 Activision $54

Source: Thomson Reuters (8/15/18).

Market Cap Disney $168 Comcast $162 21st Fox $84 Time Warner $77 Sony $69 CBS $19 Viacom $13

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 18

Sequencing the Human Genome 2003:

  • 13 years
  • $3 billion

Today:

  • A few hours
  • Approaching $1,000

2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2017

Cost of Sequencing a Genome Cost of Sequencing a Genome

$100M $10M $1M $100K $10K

Moore’s Law

Source: National Human Genome Research Institute Note: Base-10 logarithmic scale for cost of sequencing.

$1K

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 19

When robotic surgery is performed by a certified provider with advanced training and skill …

  • Less blood loss, less trauma to the body, less

scarring.

  • Hospital stays are shorter and recovery times

much faster.

Source: University of Kentucky HealthCare

Minimally Invasive Robotic Surgery

400,000 robotic surgeries were performed in the U.S. in 2012. The rate of robotic surgeries is increasing 25% per year. By 2020, the global medical robotic system market will reach $18 billion; compound annual growth rate will be 12.7%.

Source: Becker’s ASC Review 7/23/15; 11 Things to Know About Robotic Surgery

Robotic Surgery

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 20

  • Two highly skilled pathologists

assessing the same slide will agree

  • nly about 60% of the time.
  • Machine-learning predicted patient

survival times better than the standard practice of pathologists.

Source: Stanford University School of Medicine

Pathologist vs. Computer

  • March 1, 1879: Agreement to publish a dictionary.

Submissions sought from the public.

  • April, 19, 1928: Complete First Edition published.
  • Nearly 50 years to gather more than 6 million

submissions.

History’s First Crowdsourcing Project History’s First Crowdsourcing Project

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 21

Heritage Provider Network: The Challenge Heritage Provider Network: The Challenge Heritage Provider Network: The Solution Heritage Provider Network: The Solution

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VA Network of Centers of Excellence $50 million partnership

VA Network of Centers of Excellence

  • Genomic sequencing for Precision Rx
  • 100 patients annually; builds to 1,000 per year
  • Precision Oncology Research Nurse
  • Builds to 10 nurses in five years
  • Precision Clinical Research Manager
  • Builds to 10 managers in five years
  • Informatics and biobanking specialist
  • Serves 1,000 vets per year
  • Develops self-sustaining VA-funded program by 2022
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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 23

1.

Human and social capital

2.

Access to financial capital

3.

Technology

4.

Do no harm.

5.

Crowdsourcing

6.

Cause vs. Symptom

7.

Government

8.

Leverage/collaboration

9.

Medical research and public health

  • 10. Demographics

The Future of Philanthropy Alms for the poor – please pay by phone app Alms for the poor – please pay by phone app

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 24 $924.9B 5185%

2006 Market Cap

Bricks & Mortar Retailers Bricks & Mortar Retailers

Sources: Thomson Reuters (8/13/2018); 2006 = Peak Market Value

Walmart $214.0B Target $51.3B Best Buy $28.4B Sears $27.8B Kohl’s $24.2B Macy’s $24.2B JCPenny $18.1B Nordstrom $12.4B TOTAL $400.4B

2018 Market Cap Gain

Walmart $264.5B 24% Target $43.7B (15%) Best Buy $21.5B (24%) Sears $0.2B (99%) Kohl’s $12.8B (47%) Macy’s $12.3B (49%) JCPenny $0.8B (96%) Nordstrom $8.9B (28%) TOTAL $358.3 Amazon $17.5B

Is retail dead? Is retail dead?

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 25

Is retail dead? Is retail dead?

Out

Source: Forbes, Brick-and-Mortar Retail Isn’t Dead, July 8, 2018

In

Online Retailers Opening Physical Stores Online Retailers Opening Physical Stores

Source: Forbes, Brick-and-Mortar Retail Isn’t Dead, July 8, 2018

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 26

Enterprise Value Per Employee

Source: Thomson Reuters (8/13/2018). Notes: Measure based on latest EV and latest full-time employment numbers.

Macy’s $128,000 Walmart $133,000 IBM $448,000 Sony $527,000 Amazon $1.7 million Microsoft $5.9 million Alibaba $6.9 million Apple $8.6 million Google $9.6 million Facebook $19.0 million

Reinventing Cyber Security Reinventing Cyber Security

  • Create a new security architecture based in

the cloud.

  • Crowdsource threats and provide

“community immunity.”

  • Efficiently collect endpoint data
  • Simultaneously analyze billions of endpoint

events, spot anomalies, identify patterns and prevent attacks.

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 27

Using Blockchain for Ballot Security Using Blockchain for Ballot Security

West Virginia is testing a new method that uses blockchain technology and mobile phones to store and secure digital votes.

  • Voting app uses facial recognition software to confirm

voters’ identities, compliant with West Virginia’s laws.

  • Votes stored on the blockchain in a “digital lockbox”
  • n the cloud.
  • On primary day, county clerks used biometric

authentication devices to unlock and collect the votes.

Source: Bloomberg Businessweek, August 10, 2018; CNN, August 6, 2018

Why Do People Play Video Games? Why Do People Play Video Games?

"Once you get past air, food, water, shelter, you get to social connections, sense of belonging. You get to self-esteem, overcoming challenges and building self-worth. And you get to self-actualization. “We are providing self-actualization for a great many of our players." ‒ Andrew Wilson, CEO, Electronic Arts

Source: Gamesindustry.biz

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 28

eSports eSports

  • Global eSports revenues are expected to jump 38

percent in 2018 to nearly $1 billion.

  • By 2021, revenues will hit $1.65 billion.
  • Worldwide audience of competitive gamers and

enthusiasts has tripled to more than 550 million

  • ver the past five years.
  • Twitch has 2 million active broadcasters

streaming Overwatch, Dota 2 and thousands of

  • ther games.

eSports eSports

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 29

Market Caps of Media Companies

Market Cap, $US Billion

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream (8/19/2018).

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Activision EA CBS Viacom

Letter to the Financial Times

Source: Financial Times, September 25, 2017

Summary:

  • An appeal to the Home Secretary.
  • The London taxi industry is in peril.
  • A new competitor is undercutting us.
  • Government intervention is required.
  • If not addressed, major disruptions to

industries and workers. Published in 1907.

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2018 Milken Institute Hamptons Dialogues How Technological Disruption is Reshaping the World 30

  • 2014: Taxi cab medallions

sold for $1.3 million each.

Source: New York Times, Taxi Medallions, Once a Safe Investment, Now Drag Owners into Debt, (September 10, 2017)

Car Service Apps Disrupt Taxi Business

  • 2017: 46 medallions were

auctioned off to a hedge fund in September as part of bankruptcy proceedings: average price = $186,000.

0.78 81.87

173.09

172.55 169.28 168.04 135.51

103.13

50 100 150 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Million Rides

NYC – Taxis vs Uber/Lyft

Taxis Ride-hailing Apps

Note: 2018 is based on January data. Source: City of New York.