How to prioritize climate change adaptation measures? Yeora Chae - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Yeora Chae

How to prioritize climate change adaptation measures?

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Contents

Introduction Prioritizing adaptation options Identifying evaluation criteria Further steps Climate change adaptation

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• Even if stringent global GHG emissions reductions prove to be

successful, further climate change seems to be inevitable (IPCC 2007)

• Climate change impacts will be unevenly distributed and put

additional pressure on social-ecological functions and structures.

• Policy makers at national and local levels have begun to initiated

dedicated adaptation practices to counter adverse impacts.

• Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging

rapidly

• To maximize the benefit of adaptation, prioritizing adaptation
• ptions are essential
• 1. Research needs

Ⅰ. Introduction

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• 2. R

Resear arch t ch tasks ks

• To investigate adaptation measures and plan
• To categorizes adaptation options
• To analyze methodologies for evaluating

adaptation options

• Multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, etc.
• To develop a methodology for prioritizing

adaptation options

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• 1. Objective of adaptation:

What is successful adaptation?

Ⅱ. Climate change adaptation

• To maintain climate-related risks at present level
• To reduce risks from present level if current risks are

unacceptable

• To minimize exposure of most vulnerable population
• cost effectiveness
• equity: distribution of benefit
• sustainability

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• 2. Classification adaptation strategies

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Benjamin L. Preston(2011)

The ‘percentage of plans incorporating the specified strategy’ represents the proportion of the 57 adaptation plans that had at least one adaptation

• ption consistent with a given adaptation strategy (UKCIP 2008).
• 3. The percentage of adaptation strategies

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• 4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation

strategies (group)

8 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

새로운 기회 활용 위험방지 및 감소 위험 공유 및 유포 철수 이주관리 지원사회 구조 수립 정책 전략 개발 정보 수집 및 교육

Exploiting new opportunities Avoiding or reducing the risks Sharing or spreading the risks Gathering and sharing information Creating a supportive institutional framework Creating supportive social structures Bearing the risks

Public Relations, Education, and International Cooperation

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정보 수집 및 교육 정책 전략 개발 지원사회 구조 수립 철수 이주관리 위험 공유 및 유포 위험방지 및 감소 새로운 기회 활용

• 5. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation

strategies (type)

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Exploiting new opportunities Avoiding or reducing the risks Sharing or spreading the risks Bearing the risks Creating a supportive institutional framework Creating supportive social structures Gathering and sharing information

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• 1. T

The pr he proc

• ces

ess of

• f eval

evalua uation i n in n adap adaptation

1) Identification of core stages in adaptation planning from the decision science and development evaluation literature 2) Identification of critical planning processes associated with each planning stage that can be used as evaluation criteria 3) Selection of adaptation plans for evaluation 4) Scoring of plans against evaluation criteria 5) Categorization of adaptation options embodied within plans

Ⅲ. Prioritizing adaptation options

Benjamin L. Preston et al.(2011)

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1) Organizing stakeholder group 2) Listening stakeholder’s opinion in pre-assessment 3) Building adaptation assessment framework through legal, social, political process 4) Vulnerability assessment 5) Identification of priority option through stakeholder’s agreement 6) Public hearing

• 2. T

The pr he proc

• ces

ess of

• f eval

evalua uation i n in n adap adaptation n (Ha Han, 200 2007)

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1) Benefits of adaptation occurs far future and uncertain. 2) Hard to measure benefits of adaptation 3) Benefits of adaptation may be realized by combination of

• ptions: hard to measure each option’s individual benefit

4) Climate change impacts would differ depending on physical, economic, social condition: regional, sectoral analysis required.

• 3. T

The f he feat eatur ure e of

• f eval

evalua uation n in n ada adaptation

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• Climate change impacts &

risk

• physical, economic, social

condition

• feature of adaptation options
• Cos-benefit analysis
• main-streaming
• Environmental aspect
• legal aspect
• Policy aspect
• 4. T

The cr he criter erion of

• n of eval

evalua uation n in n adap adaptation

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Sergio Margulis et al.(2008)

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• 5. R

Rel eleva evant nt cr criter eria f a for

• r adap

adaptation n as assessment nt

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• 6. Su

Summary y of Asse sessm ssment m methods

Lead Authors(1998) Adaptation to Climate Change: Theory and Assessment” 21p. 15

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1) Ensuring reduction in societal and ecological vulnerability:

One of the key aims of climate adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of human and natural systems to the effects of climate variability and change.(or, in other words, the avoidance of ‘dangerous’ climate change)

2) Learning and adaptive management:

Climate adaptation is fundamentally a process of social learning.

3) Need for accountability in an evidence-based policy environment:

From a governance perspective, investments in adaptation and the

• utcomes they achieve must be transparent.
• 7. R

Rol

• le of
• f adap

adaptation eval n evalua uation n

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• 8. Pr

Progress ss

• n
• n Adap

daptation n

Fréedéeric Gagnon- Lebrun and Shardul Agrawala(2006), "Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in Deveoped Countries", OECD

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ICAS(2011). “International Symposium Promoting Synergies Among Adaptation Networks in the Asia-Pacific Region”.

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• 10. M

Multi-cr criteria A a Anal nalysis f for

• r Adap

daptation n Opt ption

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11. . Selection criteria for adaptation options (Klein et al. 1997)

• # of countries, or population affected by climate change

impacts

• probability of climate change risk
• Irreversible higher cost impacts
• Tendency on mal-adaptation
• Long-term projects like infrastructure
• Urgency
• No-regret characteristics of options
• Co-benefits of other sectors and domains
• Mitigation effect

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 Previous studies  Recommendation from other institutions,

• rganizations

 Expert survey

Ⅳ. Identifying evaluation criteria

• 1. Selection of evaluation criteria

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 Experts: adaptation

scientist ( ), Policy analysits ( ), policy makers ( )

 Evaluation criteria,

concepts, assessment methodology, etc.

 Selection among

criteria

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• 2. Evaluation criteria

Eval alua uation

• n criter

eria conc

• ncept

ept 대분류 지표 Climate change risk Climat ate e change hange risks Clima imate change hange risks sks (Proba

• babi

bility) Climat ate e change hange impac pacts # of

• f peopl

people, e, ar area ea affected by by cli lima mate change hange Timi iming Timi iming of

• f cli

lima mate change hange imp impacts oc

• ccur

ur Int nten ensity of

• f climat

ate change hange # of

• f mo

mortali lity, mo morbid idit ity, dam damage age cost st ($) Polic icy Equi quity Cons

• nsider

derat ation

• n of
• f vul

ulner nerabl able gr group

• up

Democr cracy cy Cons

• nsens

nsus on

• n stak

akehol

• lder

ers’ opi

• pini

nion

• n

ma main in-stream eaming ng

• Identification of
• f way

ays in in adapt ptat ation

• n can

an be be ins nstitut ution

• nalized

ed or

• r

em embedded bedded into existing or

• r new

new polic icies and and pl plans ans Effec ectivenes ness Econ

• nom
• mic ef

efficien ency Cost, effe ffect ctive veness, ss, benef benefits Co Co-benef benefits Expl ploi

• itat

ation

• n of
• f syne

nergies es Propaga

• pagating

ng ef effec ect Com

• mmuni

unicat ation

• n and

and out

• utrea

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• 2. Evaluation criteria

Eval alua uation

• n criter

eria Anal nalysis met ethodol hodolog

• gy

대분류 지표

Climate change risk Climat ate c change ge risks Quanti tita tati tive analy lysis is: Vuln lnerabilit ility analy lysis is Clima mate te chang ange impac pact asse sessm ssment Climate c e chang ange impac pacts Ti Timing Intens ensity o

• f climat

ate c chang ange Polic licy Equit ity Qualit litativ ive analy lysis is: Multi criteria analysis, AHP , BAP Democ

• crac

acy main in-stream aming ng Effect ctive veness ss Econom

• nomic e

efficien ency Quanti tita tati tive analy lysis is: co cost st benef enefit analy lysis is Co Co-be bene nefits Quanti tita tati tive analy lysis is Propa

• paga

gating ng e effec ect Qualit litativ ive analy lysis is

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• 6. Prioritizat

zation of

• n of climat

ate change nge adapt adaptation m meas easures ures

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Asses essment of

• f adap

adaptatio ion m mea easure res Quantitative assessment Qualitative assessment

Policy Climate change risks

• Timing
• Risks (probability)
• Intensity
• Economic

efficiency

• Co-benefits

(win-win measures)

• Propagation

effects

• Equity
• Democracy
• main streaming

Effectiveness

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• 7. Asse

ssessm sment st steps

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1st Step

(Screening)

2nd Step 3rd Step ∙ No regret :measures with no cost

∙ Existing measures ∙ Non-reversible impacts

Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment Multi-criteria analysis Effectiveness Policy

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• 8. Climate chan

e change e impact pacts an and d vu vulnerability as asses essment

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1단계 2단계 Int en sit y Risk (probability) Priority

201 1 중기 장기

Timing

Priority

Near future

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 Expert survey on evaluation criteria, relative

weight, assessment scale

 Pre-test on adaptation plan  To build a prioritizing framework for sectoral

adaptation options

Ⅴ. Further steps

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THANK YOU!

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