How many sheep are out there? And why should you care. Australian - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jul 24, 2023 331 likes •536 views

How many sheep are out there? And why should you care. Australian flock size 1950-2015 180 160 Flcok size m hd 140 120 100 80 60 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Year Source: BAE, AWC,

SLIDE 1

How many sheep are out there?

And why should you care.

SLIDE 2

Australian flock size 1950-2015

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Flcok size m hd Year

Source: BAE, AWC, AWPFC

SLIDE 3

Flock estimates

Source 2014 2015 2016 ABS 75.50 71.60 ABARES 72.70 70.70 72.10 AWPFC 75.50 71.60 69.10 MLA 71.63 71.00 71.51

SLIDE 4

Lamb supply & price

SLIDE 5

Lamb offtake

SLIDE 6

Trade lamb change in price model

Inputs: Supply & FX

SLIDE 7

Lamb price model inputs

Y on Y change in lamb supply Y on Y change in AUD/USD Change 1% 1% Effect

2.4%
0.4%

Abs Median Change 6% 5% Absolute Effect 13.6% 2.3%

SLIDE 8

Structural changes

SLIDE 9

Mutton price and supply

SLIDE 10

Change in mutton price model

Shadow store market effect missing

SLIDE 11

Sheep offtake

Highly variable

SLIDE 12

Sheep offtake & flock size

SLIDE 13

Fine micron premiums and supply

SLIDE 14

What about the trend in fine micron premiums?

SLIDE 15

Broad merino basis and supply

SLIDE 16

Flock size model

SLIDE 17

Flock model What drives it?

Wool to wheat price ratio - lagged
Change in sheep slaughter numbers/LE –

lagged

Dummy variables for OJD/Mulesing issue

SLIDE 18

ENSO

Average change in supply Mutton Lamb

El Nino 2%

Neutral

0% La Nina

1%

SLIDE 19

Flock size underpins: Lamb supply – drives lamb prices Sheep supply – mutton price driven by sheep meat supply Wool supply – wool premiums and discounts driven largely by supply (fashion is always in the background somewhere)