Helping Displaced Workers Back into Jobs by Maintaining and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Helping Displaced Workers Back into Jobs by Maintaining and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 18, 2023 160 likes •412 views

OECD 16 th May 2013 Discussion of Helping Displaced Workers Back into Jobs by Maintaining and Upgrading their Skills Donald Storrie Head of Employment and Change Unit 1/10 % of employees saying that restructuring or re- organisation took

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OECD 16th May 2013 Discussion of

Helping Displaced Workers Back into Jobs by Maintaining and Upgrading their Skills

Donald Storrie Head of Employment and Change Unit

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% of employees saying that restructuring or re-

  • rganisation took place at their workplaces in previous

3 years 50 60 70 30 40 50 10 20

P L B G I T E S G R D E S I H U L T B E A T E U 2 7 S K P T L U R O F R L V C Z C Y N L I E E E U K M T D K S E F I

Source: EWCS 2010: Eurofound

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Very limited previous international comparisons of displacement P t K h Ed (2002) “L i W k M i O I t ti l Peter Kuhn Ed (2002) “Losing Work, Moving On: International Perspectives on Worker Displacement” Upjohn Institute, 2002 Eurofound (2012) “After restructuring: labour markets, working conditions and life satisfaction” ERM Report 2012 Eurofound

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Very many case studies with some with policy perspectives – maybe only two evaluations (with counterfactual) y y ( )

Winter-Ebmer, R. (2006), “Coping with a structural crisis: evaluating an innovative d d t i i j t” I t ti l J l f M V l 27 N 7 8 redundancy retraining project”, International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 27 Nos 7-8,

  • pp. 700-21.

Henry Ohlsson, Donald Storrie, (2012),"Long-term effects of public policy for Henry Ohlsson, Donald Storrie, (2012), Long term effects of public policy for displaced workers in Sweden: Shipyard workers in the west and miners in the north", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 33 Iss: 5 pp. 514 – 538

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First time ever same question asked First time ever same question asked in all Member States about job loss in all Member States about job loss

E b t b t Eurobarometer survey between 25 May and 17June 09 Representative sample of c.a. 1000 people in each MS 000 peop e eac S “Please tell me whether or not each of the following situations has happened to you as a result has happened to you, as a result

  • f the economic crisis “.

One possible response was p p “ You lost your job”.

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Job loss rates in the Job loss rates in the European Union European Union European Union European Union

Sex Cohabitation status Male 14.4% Couple 13.2% F l 13 8% Si l 17 6% Female 13.8% Single 17.6% Age Lone Parent 19 - 24 years 21.1% Not lone parent 13.9% 25 - 34 years 13.4% Lone parent 16.4% % 35 - 44 years 12.4% Highest level of education attained 45 - 54 years 14.0% Below Upper Secondary 22.2% 55 - 64 years 15.8% Upper Secondary + PSNT 13.1% Foreign background Tertiary 7.9% Foreign background 18.3% Professional status Local born nationals 13.5% Professionals 7.4% Minority status White collar 10.5% not minority 13.2% Skilled blue collar 22.2% minority status 21.9% Unskilled blue collar 31.5% Health Tenure with last / current employer No chronic health issues 13.1% 0-1 yrs 39.7% Chronic health issues 23.6% 2 years 23.7%

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Children in the household 3 years 20.9% No children 15.6% 4 years 13.9% Children 12.7% 5+ years 10.9%

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Recent job quality post displacement literature Leombruni, R., T. Razzolini, & F. Serti. (2013) “The pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of job displacement–The risky job of being back to work” European Economic Review.

  • Italian administrative data
  • propensity score matching

propensity score matching They find d t i l

  • moderate earnings losses
  • 79% increase in workplace injuries.

Worse working conditions is driven by the transition to new occupations

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g y p and the risk imposed by new work environments.

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“Employment polarisation and job quality in the crisis”

WAGES EDUCATION YEARS JOB QUALITY YEARS QUALITY

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Source: European Jobs Monitor 2013

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Nature of the loss to the displaced worker Firm / job specific capital j p p

  • Seniority wages
  • Employment protection
  • Skills
  • Match specific capital – a career even

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Nature of the loss to the displaced worker Firm / job specific capital j p p

  • Seniority wages
  • Employment protection
  • Skills
  • Match specific capital – a career even
  • … and also psychological and health loss in the very

short term.

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Nature of the loss to the displaced worker Firm / job specific capital j p p

  • Seniority wages
  • Employment protection
  • Skills
  • Match specific capital – a career even
  • … and also psychological and health loss in the very

short term.

  • Opportunity of the period of notice
  • Matching, counselling, career guidance

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g g g

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Annual earnings of young men displaced from Uddevalla Shipyard 2005, with extraordinary policy measures compared to other plant closure job losers (1982 2000) compared to other plant closure job losers (1982 – 2000)

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Source: Ohlsson and Storrie (2012)

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Percentage change in highest education level 1983 to 2000 for the cases and the controls (plant closures) 2000 for the cases and the controls (plant closures)

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Source: Ohlsson and Storrie (2012)

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Thank you for your attention! y y

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Job finding rates Job finding rates

Sex Cohabitation status Male 25.3% Couple 27.0% F l 26 8% Si l 23 1% Female 26.8% Single 23.1% Age Lone Parent 19 - 24 years 13.5% Not lone parent 26.3% 25 - 34 years 29.7% Lone parent 22.6% 35 44 years 27 8% Highest le el of ed cation attained 35 - 44 years 27.8% Highest level of education attained 45 - 54 years 29.0% Below Upper Secondary 21.3% 55 - 64 years 19.9% Upper Secondary + PSNT 26.8% Foreign background Tertiary 36.5% Foreign background 26 4% Professional status Foreign background 26.4% Professional status Local born nationals 26.0% Professionals 38.0% Minority status White collar 32.0% not minority 26.8% Skilled blue collar 21.3% minority status 22 1% Unskilled blue collar 15 9% minority status 22.1% Unskilled blue collar 15.9% Health Tenure with last / current employer No chronic health issues 26.7% 0-1 yrs 24.1% Chronic health issues 22.4% 2 years 26.8% Children in the household 3 years 26 3%

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Children in the household 3 years 26.3% No children 23.9% 4 years 19.3% Children 28.4% 5+ years 26.6%

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Multivariate analysis of probability Multivariate analysis of probability

  • f job loss and finding new job
  • f job loss and finding new job
  • f job loss and finding new job
  • f job loss and finding new job

Probability of ..

JOB LOSS NEW JOB

Old Middl d

Age

+ Older Middle aged +

Foreign background

+ Foreign

Minority status

+ Minority

  • Minority

Health

+ Bad health

  • Bad health

Highest level of education attained

+ Low education

  • Low education

Professional status

+ Unskilled blue collar

  • Unskilled blue collar

Tenure with last / current employer

  • Long tenure
  • Long tenure

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Announced job loss in Europe since 2008

300000 250000 150000 200000 50000 100000 A d j b l A d j b i

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Announced job losses Announced job gains

Source: European Restructuring Monitor: Eurofound

d

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Slide 17 dst6

UPDATE

Donald Storrie, 13-Feb-2013

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No major increase in temporary jobs in Europe since 2001 in Europe since 2001 EU‐27: levels of employment and unemployment (Y) EU 27: levels of employment and unemployment (Y)

194.0 sands 30.0 Thousands Permanent Temporary employment Unemployment 186 0 188.0 190.0 192.0 Thou ploym e nt 20.0 25.0 m e nt and nt 180.0 182.0 184.0 186.0 rm ane nt e m p 10.0 15.0 rary e m ploym une m ploym e 174.0 176.0 178.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Pe r 0.0 5.0 Te m por u

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: EU:LFS

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Employment growth in top wage jobs but with Employment growth in top wage jobs but with increasing tendency to polarisation increasing tendency to polarisation increasing tendency to polarisation increasing tendency to polarisation

1998-2007 2008-2010

WAGES

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Source: European Jobs Monitor 2013:Eurofound

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Change in Economic sectors

PRIMARY CONSTRUCTION LOW TECH INDUSTRY PRIMARY HIGH TECH INDUSTRY LOW KNOWLEDGE SERVICES KNOWLEDGE SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION EDUCATION HEALTH

20/10

Source: European Jobs Monitor Report 2013:Eurofound

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Variety of national patterns (2008q2-10q2)

Polarisation Upgrading Downgrading

(2008q2-10q2)

Sverige

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Polarization only in terms of wages

WAGES EDUCATION YEARS JOB QUALITY YEARS QUALITY

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Source: Eurofound

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Job losers (all due to plant closure) vrs non-job losers (1987-88) 1983 - 2000

Marcus Eliason & Donald Storrie (2006) “Lasting or Latent Scars? “Swedish Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement” Journal of Labor Economics, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 23/10