Global Trade Policy and Geopolitical developments - Trumponomics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

quo vadis? – a good question

Ron Sandrey, tralac Associate

“Global Trade Policy and Geopolitical developments - Trumponomics and beyond”

AGOA and the US

• Th

This is is is a non-recip iprocal l agreement offered to Afr fric ica with ith terms and conditions set by US ‘Conditionality’

• Does it

it reall lly amount to much?

• Most

t im imports are fu fuel l rela lated which ich are duty-fr free

• anyway. It

It boils ils down to vehic icle les fr from So South Afr fric ica and clo loth thin ing fr from a few countrie ies. .

US Imports from Africa

• Combined two-way goods trade in

in 2015 was valu lued at $36 billi illion (evenly split lit)

• Exp

xports to US main inly fuel l – therefore ir irrele levant

• Clo

lothin ing most crucia ial exp xports, , tarif iff concessions and and ROO better

South Africa

• So

South Afr fric ica – autos versu sus chick

• ickens. So

South Afr fric ica shouldn’t be protecting its chicken sector anyway (It It has to im import rt so soy beans to feed th them, and chick ickens are only ly so soya beans with ith leg legs) s)

• 2015 - 78.5

.5% of US S im imports under AGOA from So South Afr fric ica were autos. . (1 (10th

th US

S im importer). ). Th They are vu vuln lnerable le from Trump supporters in the “Rust Belt”

• Agric

ricult ltural l access provi vides li limit ited benefi fit to So South th Afr fric ica

Vulnerability In In essence, US hold lds all ll the cards and can use the ‘Out of cycle’ review as their tru rump card Wil ill the US lo look at EPAs and see the EU getting tari riff concessions in into Afr frica and want the same? Under Tru rump, , YES

Other Issues

• 2016 kill

illed the TPP agreement

• What does this

is mean for Afric ica?

• Not much dir

irectly (perhaps some relie lief for clo lothing exp xporters to US)

• But it

it stall lls in international progress

• How will

ill this is im impact on Afric ican in integration?