Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22 Eri Saikawa Massachusetts Institute of Technology May 17, 2012 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Importance of HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ) Major Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential: 1810 Ozone-Depleting Substance: Regulated by the Montreal Protocol Developed countries already started regulation (cease production by 2030, 99.5% by 2020) Developing countries start in 2013 Atmospheric lifetime: 11.9 years (primary sink - OH) Used for commercial refrigeration, air conditioning, and foam industries. Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Mixing Ratio Measurements Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment Network Eri Saikawa MIT Source: AGAGE, NOAA, CGAA, and THD air samples Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
HCFC-22 Mixing Ratio Increasing No atmospheric mixing ratio in pre-industrial times 250 250 MHD (AGAGE) MHD (NOAA) Measurements THD (AGAGE) THD (NOAA) Model HCFC−22 mole fraction (ppt) HCFC−22 mole fraction (ppt) RPB (AGAGE) SMO (AGAGE) SMO (NOAA) 200 200 CGO (AGAGE) CGO (NOAA) THD Air Samples SH CGAA 150 150 100 100 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 Year Year Source: AGAGE, NOAA, CGAA, and THD air samples Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Source and Magnitude of HCFC-22 Emissions Source: Only anthropogenic Source: McCulloch et al., 2003 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Methods Global 3-dimensional chemical transport model MOZART v4 Conducted 2 simulations: 1st simulation: Global, 1995-2009 Horizontal resolution: 5 ◦ latitude x 5 ◦ longitude 2nd simulation: Regional, 2005-2009 Horizontal resolution: 1.9 ◦ latitude x 2.5 ◦ longitude 56 vertical levels from the surface to approximately 2mb meteorological field: MERRA Bayesian weighted least-squares: Minimizing the following cost function with respect to x: J = ( y − Hx ) T W − 1 ( y − Hx ) + x T S − 1 x (1) Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
A priori emissions McCulloch et al. (2003): 1995-2000. Consumption data submitted to United Nations: 2001-2009. Source: UNEP Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
10 Regions used for the inversion Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22 Source: Thornton et al., 2009
Observational Data * AGAGE AGAGE affiliate * NIES NOAA FLASK NOAA TOWER FLASK THD Air Samples SH CGAA Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Global HCFC-22 emissions estimated from inversion 800 800 optimized emissions (this study) polynomial fit prior (this study) HCFC−22 emissions (Gg/year) HCFC−22 emissions (Gg/year) "raw" prior (this study) bank emissions estimate (IPCC/TEAP, 2005; UNEP, 2007) 600 600 "bottom−up" emissions estimate (UNEP/TEAP, 2006) 12−box model emissions estimate (Wang) 1−box model emissions estimate (Montzka et al., 2009) 400 400 200 200 0 0 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 year year Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Results: Regional Emissions optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) prior emissions 100 100 optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE only) 60 60 optimized (AGAGE only) uncertainty reduction (%) uncertainty reduction (%) 80 80 optimized (NOAA flasks only) optimized (NOAA flasks only) 60 60 Gg/year Gg/year 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 (a) US East Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Results: Regional Emissions 70 70 optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) prior emissions optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) 80 80 optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) 60 60 optimized (AGAGE only) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (NOAA flasks only) uncertainty reduction (%) uncertainty reduction (%) optimized (AGAGE only) 50 50 60 60 optimized (NOAA flasks only) Gg/year Gg/year 40 40 40 40 30 30 20 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 (b) US Midwest Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Results: Regional Emissions 40 40 30 30 prior emissions optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) 25 25 optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE only) uncertainty reduction (%) uncertainty reduction (%) 30 30 optimized (AGAGE only) optimized (NOAA flasks only) 20 20 optimized (NOAA flasks only) Gg/year Gg/year 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 (c) US West Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Results: Regional Emissions 100 100 80 80 prior emissions optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE only) 80 80 optimized (AGAGE only) uncertainty reduction (%) uncertainty reduction (%) optimized (NOAA flasks only) 60 60 optimized (NOAA flasks only) 60 60 Gg/year Gg/year 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 (d) North Asia prior emissions optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) 120 120 optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks) optimized (AGAGE only) 300 300 100 100 optimized (AGAGE only) optimized (NOAA flasks only) uncertainty reduction (%) uncertainty reduction (%) optimized (NOAA flasks only) 80 80 Gg/year Gg/year 200 200 60 60 40 40 100 100 20 20 0 0 0 0 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 (e) Article 5 Asia Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Comparison with other models - Global Global HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year − 1 ) AFEAS (1997): 225 Gg year − 1 in 1995 This study: 169 ± 45.69 Gg year − 1 in 1995 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Comparison with other models - Global Global HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year − 1 ) AFEAS (1997): 225 Gg year − 1 in 1995 This study: 169 ± 45.69 Gg year − 1 in 1995 Stohl et al. (2009): 333 Gg year − 1 for 2005 and 2006 This study: 272 ± 78 Gg year − 1 for 2005 and 2006 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Comparison with other models - Global Global HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year − 1 ) AFEAS (1997): 225 Gg year − 1 in 1995 This study: 169 ± 45.69 Gg year − 1 in 1995 Stohl et al. (2009): 333 Gg year − 1 for 2005 and 2006 This study: 272 ± 78 Gg year − 1 for 2005 and 2006 Montzka et al. (2009) - global emissions increasing by 93 Gg from 2004-2007 & emissions shift towards low latitude in NH This study: 251 ± 13.3 Gg year − 1 in 2004 to 368 ± 15.9 Gg year − 1 in 2007. Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Comparison with other models - Regional United States HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year − 1 ) Miller et al. (2009): 46 Gg year − 1 for 2005 and 2006 EPA bottom-up estimates: 83Gg year − 1 in 2004 This study: 67.9 ± 20.6 Gg year − 1 for 2005 and 2006 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Comparison with other models - Regional Regional HCFC-22 emissions for 2005 and 2006 (Gg year − 1 ) This study: North America: 75 ± 35 Gg year − 1 Europe: 7.3 ± 2.0 Gg year − 1 Asia: 121 ± 31 Gg year − 1 Oceania: 1.5 ± 0.4 Gg year − 1 Stohl et al., 2010: North America: 80 Gg year − 1 Europe: 24 Gg year − 1 Asia: 149 Gg year − 1 Australia: 12 Gg year − 1 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
Conclusion We conducted a global and a regional inversion study for estimating HCFC-22 emissions. Our model results indicate an increase in global emissions from 1995 to 2009, with a large growth from 1999 to 2001 and from 2004 to 2006. In recent years, emissions are mostly flat in developed countries. We find a rapid emissions increase in Asia in the recent years. Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22
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