Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22 Eri Saikawa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22 Eri Saikawa Massachusetts Institute of Technology May 17, 2012 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22 Importance of HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ) Major Greenhouse Gas

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Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

Eri Saikawa

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

May 17, 2012

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Importance of HCFC-22 (CHClF2)

Major Greenhouse Gas

Global Warming Potential: 1810

Ozone-Depleting Substance: Regulated by the Montreal Protocol

Developed countries already started regulation (cease production by 2030, 99.5% by 2020) Developing countries start in 2013

Atmospheric lifetime: 11.9 years (primary sink - OH) Used for commercial refrigeration, air conditioning, and foam industries.

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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HCFC-22 Mixing Ratio Measurements

Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment Network

Source: AGAGE, NOAA, CGAA, and THD air samples Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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HCFC-22 Mixing Ratio Increasing

No atmospheric mixing ratio in pre-industrial times

1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 100 150 200 250 HCFC−22 mole fraction (ppt) 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 100 150 200 250 HCFC−22 mole fraction (ppt)

MHD (AGAGE) THD (AGAGE) RPB (AGAGE) SMO (AGAGE) CGO (AGAGE) MHD (NOAA) THD (NOAA) SMO (NOAA) CGO (NOAA) THD Air Samples SH CGAA Measurements Model

Source: AGAGE, NOAA, CGAA, and THD air samples Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Source and Magnitude of HCFC-22 Emissions

Source: Only anthropogenic

Source: McCulloch et al., 2003 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Methods

Global 3-dimensional chemical transport model MOZART v4 Conducted 2 simulations:

1st simulation: Global, 1995-2009 Horizontal resolution: 5◦ latitude x 5◦ longitude 2nd simulation: Regional, 2005-2009 Horizontal resolution: 1.9◦ latitude x 2.5◦ longitude

56 vertical levels from the surface to approximately 2mb meteorological field: MERRA Bayesian weighted least-squares:

Minimizing the following cost function with respect to x:

J = (y − Hx)TW −1(y − Hx) + xTS−1x (1)

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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A priori emissions

McCulloch et al. (2003): 1995-2000. Consumption data submitted to United Nations: 2001-2009.

Source: UNEP Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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10 Regions used for the inversion

Source: Thornton et al., 2009 Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Observational Data

* *

AGAGE AGAGE affiliate NIES NOAA FLASK NOAA TOWER FLASK THD Air Samples SH CGAA

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Global HCFC-22 emissions estimated from inversion

1995 2000 2005 2010 year 200 400 600 800 HCFC−22 emissions (Gg/year) 1995 2000 2005 2010 year 200 400 600 800 HCFC−22 emissions (Gg/year)

  • ptimized emissions (this study)

polynomial fit prior (this study) "raw" prior (this study) bank emissions estimate (IPCC/TEAP, 2005; UNEP, 2007) "bottom−up" emissions estimate (UNEP/TEAP, 2006) 12−box model emissions estimate (Wang) 1−box model emissions estimate (Montzka et al., 2009)

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Results: Regional Emissions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 100 Gg/year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 100 Gg/year prior emissions

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 uncertainty reduction (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 uncertainty reduction (%)

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

(a) US East

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Results: Regional Emissions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Gg/year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Gg/year prior emissions

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 uncertainty reduction (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 uncertainty reduction (%)

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

(b) US Midwest

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Results: Regional Emissions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 20 30 40 Gg/year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 20 30 40 Gg/year prior emissions

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5 10 15 20 25 30 uncertainty reduction (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5 10 15 20 25 30 uncertainty reduction (%)

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

(c) US West

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Results: Regional Emissions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 100 Gg/year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 100 Gg/year prior emissions

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 uncertainty reduction (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 uncertainty reduction (%)

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

(d) North Asia

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 100 200 300 Gg/year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 100 200 300 Gg/year prior emissions

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 100 120 uncertainty reduction (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 40 60 80 100 120 uncertainty reduction (%)

  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks + NOAA tower)
  • ptimized (AGAGE only)
  • ptimized (AGAGE + NOAA flasks)
  • ptimized (NOAA flasks only)

(e) Article 5 Asia

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Comparison with other models - Global

Global HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year−1) AFEAS (1997): 225 Gg year−1 in 1995 This study: 169±45.69 Gg year−1 in 1995

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Comparison with other models - Global

Global HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year−1) AFEAS (1997): 225 Gg year−1 in 1995 This study: 169±45.69 Gg year−1 in 1995 Stohl et al. (2009): 333 Gg year−1 for 2005 and 2006 This study: 272±78 Gg year−1 for 2005 and 2006

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Comparison with other models - Global

Global HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year−1) AFEAS (1997): 225 Gg year−1 in 1995 This study: 169±45.69 Gg year−1 in 1995 Stohl et al. (2009): 333 Gg year−1 for 2005 and 2006 This study: 272±78 Gg year−1 for 2005 and 2006 Montzka et al. (2009) - global emissions increasing by 93 Gg from 2004-2007 & emissions shift towards low latitude in NH This study: 251±13.3 Gg year−1 in 2004 to 368±15.9 Gg year−1 in 2007.

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Comparison with other models - Regional

United States HCFC-22 emissions (Gg year−1)

Miller et al. (2009): 46 Gg year−1 for 2005 and 2006 EPA bottom-up estimates: 83Gg year−1 in 2004 This study: 67.9±20.6 Gg year−1 for 2005 and 2006

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Comparison with other models - Regional

Regional HCFC-22 emissions for 2005 and 2006 (Gg year−1)

This study:

North America: 75±35 Gg year−1 Europe: 7.3±2.0 Gg year−1 Asia: 121±31 Gg year−1 Oceania: 1.5±0.4 Gg year−1

Stohl et al., 2010:

North America: 80 Gg year−1 Europe: 24 Gg year−1 Asia: 149 Gg year−1 Australia: 12 Gg year−1

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Conclusion

We conducted a global and a regional inversion study for estimating HCFC-22 emissions. Our model results indicate an increase in global emissions from 1995 to 2009, with a large growth from 1999 to 2001 and from 2004 to 2006. In recent years, emissions are mostly flat in developed countries. We find a rapid emissions increase in Asia in the recent years.

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22

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Acknowledgments

Matt Rigby, Ron G. Prinn (MIT) Stephen A. Montzka, Ben R. Miller, Jim Elkins, Bradley Hall, Colm Sweeney, Arlyn Andrews, Pieter Tans (NOAA/ESRL) Lambert J. M. Kuijpers (Eindhoven) Martin K. Vollmer (EMPA) Jens M¨ uhle, Peter Salameh, Chris Harth, Ray Weiss (Scripps) Paul Fraser, Paul Krummel, Paul Steele (CSIRO) Takuya Saito, Yoko Yokouchi (NIES) Dickon Young, Peter Simmonds, Simon O’Doherty, Archie McCulloch (Bristol) Chris Lunder, Ove Hermansen (NILU) Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini (Urbino) Bo Yao, Lingxi Zhou (CAMS)

  • J. Kim, S. Li, S. Park, K.-R. Kim (SNU)

Eri Saikawa MIT Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22