Fourth Quarter & Fiscal Year 2012 Earnings Results Conference - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Fourth Quarter & Fiscal Year 2012 Earnings Results Conference - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Fourth Quarter & Fiscal Year 2012 Earnings Results Conference Call Presentation Disclaimer This presentation is based on audited financial statements and may include statements that could constitute forward-looking statements, including,
This presentation is based on audited financial statements and may include statements that could constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the Company’s expectations for its future performance, revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, liquidity and capital structure; the impact of the emergency laws enacted by the Argentine government; and the impact of rate changes and competition on the Company’s future financial performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “projects”, “intends”, “should”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “future” or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect the Company’s expected results. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties concerning the impact of the emergency laws enacted by the Argentine government which have resulted in the repeal of Argentina’s convertibility law, the devaluation of the peso, restrictions on the ability to exchange pesos into foreign currencies, the adoption of a restrictive currency transfer policy, the “pesification” of tariffs charged for public services, the elimination of indexes to adjust rates charged for public services and the executive branch announcement to renegotiate the terms of the concessions granted to public service
Disclaimer
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public services and the executive branch announcement to renegotiate the terms of the concessions granted to public service providers, including Telecom. Due to extensive and rapid changes in laws and economic and business conditions in Argentina, it is difficult to predict the impact of these changes on the Company’s financial condition. Other factors may include, but are not limited to, the evolution of the economy in Argentina, growing inflationary pressure and reduction in consumer spending and the outcome of certain legal proceedings. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as the date of this document. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to forward-looking statements which may be made to reflect events and circumstances after the date of this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in the Company’s business or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Information included in this presentation is unaudited and may not coincide with that included in the financial statements of the Company, due to rounding, reclassification matters, and other reasons. Readers are encouraged to consult the Company’s Annual Report and Form 20-F as well as periodic filings made on Form 6-K, which are filed with or furnished to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and the Argentine Comisión Nacional de Valores.
- Market Overview
- Business Highlights
- Financials
Agenda
2
- Financials
- Guidance for 2013
- Q&A Session
Market Overview: Rebound expected after 2012 slowdown
Billion USD, at current prices – Last 12 months ∆ YoY - constant prices Trade Balance (Billion USD) Last 12 months Fiscal Balance as % of GDP Last 12 months*
Real GDP* Trade & Fiscal Balance Consumption & Wages 179 211 249 266 16,9 11,4 10,0 12,7
1,5% 1,7% 0,3%
- 0,2%
National Wages - ∆ % YoY
16,7% 26,3% 29,4% 24,5%
Billion USD, at current prices – Last 12 months
307 368 442 465
0,9% 9,2% 8,9% 1,9%
3
Source: MECON, INDEC and Company Estimates
- Official GDP YoY variation, constant prices.
- Fiscal Balance represents primarily fiscal surplus
- International commerce declined in 2012, due
to a reduction in exports and imports of 3% and 7% respectively, reaching a trade surplus
- f 12,7 billion dollars.
- Weak performance in the fiscal accounts
increased flows from the Central Bank and National Pension Funds.
- Improved agricultural production and Brazilian
economy picking-up, could help to ease external constraints and to sustain a more favorable context for 2013.
- After a hard landing in 2012, an improved
economic scenario for 2013 is expected. The agricultural production will probably recover strength and the Brazilian economy may help industrial exports.
- Weak economic conditions reduced growth to
1,9% in 2012 down from 8,9%.
- Sectors
like agriculture and construction suffered the most, while banking and some
- ther services outperformed the rest of the
economy.
- Private consumption was the main driver of
growth in 2012, as deteriorated investment levels suffered from tighter FX and imports conditions.
- The continued increases in nominal wages
and the low real interest rates encouraged consumption over savings.
- Inflation remained at high levels, although
in general, wages negotiation concluded at lower levels from last year.
179
2009 2010 2011 2012e 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2009 2010 2011 2012e
- Market Overview
- Business Highlights
- Financials
Agenda
4
- Financials
- Guidance for 2013
- Q&A Session
Business Highlights
#1 in Revenue Share; Service Revenues up +21% YoY in 4Q12 Postpaid leadership confirmed by high quality of port-ins & net adds Investing in mobile access to sustain VAS growth Wireline BB and Data services sustain revenue expansion
MOBILE
5
Wireline BB and Data services sustain revenue expansion Wireline Broadband ARPU rose +22% YoY in 4Q12 Increasing ICT orders backlog
FINANCIALS FIXED
Strong cash flow generation in 4Q12 – ARS1.406 MM in 2012 Margins expanded QoQ; controlled SAC/SRC and cost efficiency Revenues and OIBDA double digit growth Target Reached
TEO Group: 2012 Targets
Guidance FY12 2012 Results
Revenues
2011 2012
+Positive Double Digit YoY trend +Positive Double Digit YoY trend
+20% vs 2011
+20% vs. FY11
IFRS, Billion of ARS
OIBDA Capex
2011 2012
3,2 4,0
17% 18%
2011 2012
Digit YoY trend
+10% vs. FY11 +11% vs. FY11*
*Excluding non-recurring cost
Capex as % of Revenues
+2% vs. FY11 ARS 3,3 Billion
Delays in logistics for equipment imports affected target
6
32,9 34,6 36,3 37,6
Mobile: Consolidated revenue share leadership
Subscriber Share Evolution
Million of lines
Others*
54,5 50,9
+5% +7%
56,6
+4% +4%
322 309 329 322 51,4 57,7 56,0 63,3
TOU
(SMS/Month)
MOU
(Mins/Month)
ARPU
(ARS/Month)
+12%
- 4%
Mobile KPI
+13%
- 2%
+1%
+5% +7%
47,4
14,5 16,3 18,2 19,0 2009 2010 2011 2012
7
Note: Argentinean operation only - Does not include trunking subscribers. Source: Market estimates of the top 3 providers in the industry.
- Sustained #1 in Revenue Share
- Outperformance in postpaid segment;
represents more than half of 2012 net adds
- Leading the Smartphone segment
- Despite single price adjustment in postpaid
in 2012, 4Q12 ARPU rose +13% YoY
Market share TEO
+0,8 MM subs.
+11%
31,1% 33,5% 32,1% 33,4%
+4%
99 99 102 103 2011 2012 4Q11 4Q12
0% +1%
+13%
30,6% Revenue Share 33,5% 29,9% 34,3%
5,8% 3,8% 5,2% 3,9% 2,0% 8,6% 9,0% 9,0% 9,4% 8,9%
4.507 5.095 5.727 6.299 2.150 2.997 4.482 5.765 173 391 774 1.248
Mobile: SAC & SRC under control in MNP success
Million ARS – Argentine Market Internet Services Data (SMS) as % of Argentine Service Revenues - Before capitalization of SAC & SRC
Service Revenue Breakdown SAC & SRC
+98% +50% +12% Handset subsidies Agent Commissions
13.312
Retail & Wholesale
8.483 10.983
+29%
16,2% 17,3% 16,4%
SAC & SRC +126% +39% +13% +24%
6.830
+61% +29% +10% +21%
14,2% 19,7%
5,3% 3,6% 3,1% 2,9% 3,3% 3,9% 2,0%
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 4.507
2009 2010 2011 2012
8 VAS as % of Service Revenues
- Consolidated leadership in high-end market
appealed by VAS & customer experience
- Successful mobile internet adoption in prepaid
segment thanks to innovative daily flat offer (“internet por $1”)
Advertising
53% 48%
Wholesale Voice
40% 34%
- Continued rationalization of SAC & SRC
after successful MNP implementation
- Promoting handsets upgrade to 3G &
smartphones to encourage data usage and improve spectrum efficiency
385 466 714 867 132 158 264 331
1.806 1.878 2.149 2.301
Paraguayan Market: Sustained value generation
Subscribers
Thousand of lines (includes 3G modems) +14% +7%
OIBDA REVENUES
+53% +67%
Financials
IFRS Million of ARS +4% +21% +25% +21% +20%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
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1 Postpaid includes 3G modems but excludes WIMAX
- Revenues in ARS rose +21% YoY in 4Q12
- Sustained value generation and contribution to
the Telecom Argentina Group
OIBDA
Margin
34% 37% 38%
- LTE launch positioned our Brand as leader
in innovation in the mobile internet business
- Great postpaid momentum; customers1 rose
+21% YoY
- Leadership
in mobile internet boosted internet service revenues
34%
13.169 460 112 1.283 474 443 153 16.094
+2.925 (+22%) IFRS, Million of ARS, Percentage
Mobile Revenues: Sustained growth thanks to VAS
Evolution of revenues 2011 – 2012
2011 Revenues Retail Voice Wholesale* Voice Data Internet Equipment Nucleo* (Paraguay) 2012 Revenues
10
+11% +6 %
+29%
+21%
+30%
Note: Wholesale voice shows Interconnection revenues (CPP, TRLD, Roaming and others) Núcleo revenues expressed in ARS and includes equipment.
36% 11% 8% 28% 12%
% of total Mobile Revenues
5%
+61%
YoY Variation
1.380 1.550 1.629
Broadband: Sustaining growth thru adding value
- Upselling of bandwidth upgrades and video
streaming sustain growth
- Deploying FTTC to increase bandwidth up to
100 mbps
- Wireline BB revenues up 29% YoY in 4Q12
- ARPU rose 22% YoY in 4Q12
- Broadband penetration reached 39% of LIS
Thousand of broadband accesses
Evolution of Accesses
+5% +12% +14%
1.214 1.380 1.550 2009 2010 2011 2012
Market share1
1,1% 1,3% 1,1% 1,5% 1,5% 91,1 95,6 96,5 105,1 111,5 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Monthly Churn ARPU (ARS)
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1 Source: Market estimates of the top 3 providers in the industry.
35%
TEO
+22%
- Broadband penetration reached 39% of LIS
35%
ARPU & Churn Evolution
34% 36%
4.060 4.107 4.141 4.128
Fixed Voice: Bundling services help ARPU & churn
- Retail voice revenues increased 5% YoY
due to packs of services and flat pricing
- Bundled services helped to maintain churn
under control
- Increasing ICT orders backlog in
government and corporate segment
- 0,3%
+0,8% Thousand of lines in service
Evolution of Lines in Service
TEO
+1,2%
2009 2010 2011 2012
12
1Source: Company reports of the main providers in the industry.
ARBU: Includes only concepts billed to clients
ARS
government and corporate segment
+6%
(excluding broadband and data)
ARBU evolution
Market share1
47% 47% 46% 47% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 46,9 46,9 47,4 48,8 49,9 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Monthly Churn ARPU (ARS)
5.329 118
- 8
152 440
- 8
6.023
+694 (+13%) IFRS, Million of ARS, Percentage
Fixed Services: Wireline BB + ICT services key drivers
36%
Regulated
Evolution of revenues 2011 – 2012
Regulated
Revenues 2011 Retail Voice Wholesale Voice Data Internet Equipment Revenues 2012
13
YoY Variation
- 9%
+5%
Note: Does not include intercompany revenues. Graph not in scale
- 1%
12% 33% 42% 12% % of total Fixed Revenues
64% 41% 59%
Regulated Non Regulated
1%
+26%
Non Regulated
+28%
19% 19% 23% 7% Others IT Mobile access Fixed access
1.663 1.921 2.318 2.415
Evolution of CAPEX
Million of ARS
PP&E Capex Breakdown Capex Evolution
+2% +28%
3.192
+21% PP&E +4%
2.493 3.257 2.105
+18% +16%
32% access Core & Infraestructure1
442 572 874 842 2009 2010 2011 2012
14
Note:
1Core & infrastructure refers to network related capex, including quality
and innovation capex.
% Revenues
17% 17% 15%
- Focus in core network improvement, fault tolerance
enhancement
- Extending own network reach to reduce roaming and avoid
drop-calls
- Continued FTTC network rollout
- Initial delays in logistics and spectrum auction cancellation
resulted in postponement of certain capex to 2013
17%
+53% Intangible Assets SAC/SRC
- 4%
+29%
- Market Overview
- Business Highlights
- Financials
Agenda
15
- Financials
- Guidance for 2013
- Q&A Session
4.775 5.645 5.139 6.092 1.592 1.844
4Q
TEO Group: Consolidated Results
+23% IFRS, Million of ARS, Percentage
Revenues OIBDA*
IFRS, Million of ARS,
22.117 5.993 6.570
+26% 18.498
14.627 4.161
+18%
3Q
+20% +10% +19%
4Q
+20%
12.170
+16%
4.867
+17%
4.134 5.126 4.450 5.254 4.775 2009 2010 2011 2012 1.431 1.647 1.474 1.492 1.496 1.587 2009 2010 2011 2012
2Q 1Q 3Q
16 OIBDA Margin
34% 33% 32% 30%
Regulated Revenues
16% 14%
+18% +6%
4.161
12% 10%
+24% +1% +15%
2Q 1Q
*Operating Income Before Depreciation & Amortization.
- Before
ARS90 MM
- ne-time
restructuring charge, OIBDA would have been ARS6.660, increasing +11% YoY
TEO Group: Consolidated Costs
Consolidated Costs1 as % of Revenues Operating Costs1 2012
21,0% 8,1% 7,7%
Marketing & ITX Costs
70,6% 67,8%
Labor Costs Taxes Others2 21% 13% 11% 30% 25%
17
- 1. Excluding Depreciation & Amortizations
- 2. Others includes: Fees for services, maintenance and materials; fees for Call
Center outsourcing; bad debt expenses
- One-off impact in expenses related to corporate
restructuring program
- Discontinued energy subsidies account for
approximately 50 bps loss in margin
- Control in commercial costs through a more careful
market approach:
- Reengineering of agent commissions
- Handset subsidies focused in contract
upselling
16,7% 18,0% 14,1% 14,8% 8,6% 9,1% 20,3% 21,0%
2011 2012
Others2 Marketing & Sales Taxes Labor costs ITX costs Marketing & Sales 11% 30%
794 2.685 994 1.163
TEO Group: Consolidated Results
IFRS, Million of ARS, Percentage
Operating Income Net Income attributable to Telecom
3.857 3.162
+22% +30% +23% +3%
2.513
IFRS, Million of ARS, Percentage
3.966
+17%
4Q
+7%
4Q
D&A
2011 2012 %
PP&E
1.538 1.792 17%
SAC and Connection costs
602 797 32%
Other intangible assets
18 23 28% Total 2.158 2.612 21%
2.616
+21%
634 698 627 577 609 616 643 794 2009 2010 2011 2012 958 1.033 971 849 934 921 2009 2010 2011 2012
18
- O. Income
Margin
21% 22% 12% 13% 21% 18% 14% 12%
- 8%
- 13%
+10% +8% +23%
2Q 1Q 2Q 1Q
1.935
- 1%
3Q
+1%
3Q 4Q
1.405
+38%
3.053 1.647 297 92 831
IFRS, Million of ARS - Last 12 months
TEO Group: FCF and Net Financial Position
6.570 3.257 260
OIBDA Capex WK &
- thers
Operating Free Cash Flow
2.684 3.648
19
Note: (1) Includes Telecom USA (2) Includes Springville (3) OFCF: Operating Free Cash Flow before Taxes. (4) $807 TA, $24 Nucleo
Net Financial Position 4Q11 (Cash) Net Financial Position 4Q12 (Cash) Net Interest FX Variations Operating Free Cash Flow3 Taxes Dividend Payments4 Free Cash Flow = 1.406 Telecom Argentina 1.454(1) Telecom Personal 2.295 (2) Nucleo (Paraguay) (101)
Net Financial Position
- Market Overview
- Business Highlights
- Financials
Agenda
20
- Financials
- Guidance for 2013
- Q&A Session
15% 17%
TEO Group: 2013 Guidance
Revenues
+Positive Double Digit YoY trend +Positive Double Digit YoY trend Capex / Revenues growing trend
OIBDA Capex
2012 2013 2012 2013
3,3 4,7
2012 2013 2015
- Improve customer experience
- Promote mobile data
- Increase broadband wireline
penetration
- Improve QoS and customer
experience to control opex
- Leverage on mobile leadership to
control SAC & SRC
- Streamline overhead expenses
- Focus on delivering network
service quality
- Extend reach and capacity of
mobile access
- Deploy FTTC
21
- Market Overview
- Business Highlights
- Financials
Agenda
22
- Financials
- Guidance for 2013
- Q&A Session