Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession Zhen Huo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession Zhen Huo and Jos e-V ctor R os-Rull University of Minnesota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, CAERP , CEPR, NBER London Business School November 19 2014 First Version
Zhen Huo and Jos´ e-V´ ıctor R´ ıos-Rull
University of Minnesota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, CAERP , CEPR, NBER
London Business School
November 19 2014
First Version April 2013
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 1/58
Facts on the last recession: I
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −8 −6 −4 −2 2 4 6
Real output
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Unemployment
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 2 4 6
Consumption
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −40 −30 −20 −10 10 20 30
Investment
Note: Except for unemployment, figures show percentage deviation from a linear trend.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 2/58
Facts on the last recession: II
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5
Wealth to output
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8
Debt to output
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
Housing value to output
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
Labor Quality adjusted Productivity
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 3/58
Facts on the last recession: III
More
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3
TFP with total hours
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
Labor productivity
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Labor quality
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
TFP with total labor inputs
Note: Figures show percentage deviation from a linear trend.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 4/58
Summary of the facts
Large decline in output, employment, consumption, and investment.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 5/58
Summary of the facts
Large decline in output, employment, consumption, and investment. Households deleveraging process: private debt and housing price plunged.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 5/58
Summary of the facts
Large decline in output, employment, consumption, and investment. Households deleveraging process: private debt and housing price plunged. Total factor productivity dropped.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 5/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
1
Real frictions that make difficult to switch from production of consumption goods to exports or investment. Labor market frictions that limit wage adjustments.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
1
Real frictions that make difficult to switch from production of consumption goods to exports or investment. Labor market frictions that limit wage adjustments.
2
Households differing in wealth and job market prospects.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
1
Real frictions that make difficult to switch from production of consumption goods to exports or investment. Labor market frictions that limit wage adjustments.
2
Households differing in wealth and job market prospects.
3
Asset prices respond to market conditions: Both housing prices and the Stock Market are Endogenous
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
1
Real frictions that make difficult to switch from production of consumption goods to exports or investment. Labor market frictions that limit wage adjustments.
2
Households differing in wealth and job market prospects.
3
Asset prices respond to market conditions: Both housing prices and the Stock Market are Endogenous
4
A financial system used widely by not-too-rich households to buy houses (loans have to be collateralized) which are inferior goods and not wanted by the super-rich.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
1
Real frictions that make difficult to switch from production of consumption goods to exports or investment. Labor market frictions that limit wage adjustments.
2
Households differing in wealth and job market prospects.
3
Asset prices respond to market conditions: Both housing prices and the Stock Market are Endogenous
4
A financial system used widely by not-too-rich households to buy houses (loans have to be collateralized) which are inferior goods and not wanted by the super-rich.
5
Frictions in the goods market generate movements in measured TFP.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Objective: When can recessions be triggered by worse financial conditions faced by households?
1
Real frictions that make difficult to switch from production of consumption goods to exports or investment. Labor market frictions that limit wage adjustments.
2
Households differing in wealth and job market prospects.
3
Asset prices respond to market conditions: Both housing prices and the Stock Market are Endogenous
4
A financial system used widely by not-too-rich households to buy houses (loans have to be collateralized) which are inferior goods and not wanted by the super-rich.
5
Frictions in the goods market generate movements in measured TFP. We extend [Huo and R´
ıos-Rull(2013a)] and [Huo and R´ ıos-Rull(2013b)] [Bai, R´ ıos-Rull, and Storesletten(2011)] [Petrosky-Nadeau and Wasmer(2011)] in various
ways to include a production sector and asset prices that allows us to talk about the U.S. recession.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 6/58
Findings
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 7/58
Findings
A recession can be triggered by financial shocks to households.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 7/58
Findings
A recession can be triggered by financial shocks to households. It shares most of the features of the Great Recession.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 7/58
Findings
A recession can be triggered by financial shocks to households. It shares most of the features of the Great Recession. Large reductions in assets (housing and stocks) prices.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 7/58
Findings
A recession can be triggered by financial shocks to households. It shares most of the features of the Great Recession. Large reductions in assets (housing and stocks) prices. Lower than the data due to inexistence of default, foreclosures, and adjustment costs in house purchases.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 7/58
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 8/58
Households: Preferences
Continuum of households that live forever (β), are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 9/58
Households: Preferences
Continuum of households that live forever (β), are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. H’holds care about quantities and number of varieties of nontradables. cN = IN c
1 ρ
Ni di
ρ = cNi Iρ
N
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 9/58
Households: Preferences
Continuum of households that live forever (β), are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. H’holds care about quantities and number of varieties of nontradables. cN = IN c
1 ρ
Ni di
ρ = cNi Iρ
N
Households have to search for varieties, its number is a choice. IN = d Ψd(Qg)
Ψd(Qg): Probability (per search unit) of finding a variety.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 9/58
Households: Preferences
Continuum of households that live forever (β), are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. H’holds care about quantities and number of varieties of nontradables. cN = IN c
1 ρ
Ni di
ρ = cNi Iρ
N
Households have to search for varieties, its number is a choice. IN = d Ψd(Qg)
Ψd(Qg): Probability (per search unit) of finding a variety.
Households also like tradables and housing and dislike goods searching u [cA(cN Iρ
N, cT ), h, d]
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 9/58
Households: Endowments and Wealth
Household skill type is ǫ, follows a Markov chain Γǫ,ǫ′. Moves slowly and accommodates opportunities to get rich.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 10/58
Households: Endowments and Wealth
Household skill type is ǫ, follows a Markov chain Γǫ,ǫ′. Moves slowly and accommodates opportunities to get rich. Households either have a job e = 1 or not e = 0.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 10/58
Households: Endowments and Wealth
Household skill type is ǫ, follows a Markov chain Γǫ,ǫ′. Moves slowly and accommodates opportunities to get rich. Households either have a job e = 1 or not e = 0.
Type-dependent exogenous job destruction rate δǫ
n.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 10/58
Households: Endowments and Wealth
Household skill type is ǫ, follows a Markov chain Γǫ,ǫ′. Moves slowly and accommodates opportunities to get rich. Households either have a job e = 1 or not e = 0.
Type-dependent exogenous job destruction rate δǫ
n.
Job finding rate is type independent and depends on job creation by firms (workers are rationed, it is like no matching function in labor market but hiring costs) ([Fang and Nie(2013)]).
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 10/58
Households: Endowments and Wealth
Household skill type is ǫ, follows a Markov chain Γǫ,ǫ′. Moves slowly and accommodates opportunities to get rich. Households either have a job e = 1 or not e = 0.
Type-dependent exogenous job destruction rate δǫ
n.
Job finding rate is type independent and depends on job creation by firms (workers are rationed, it is like no matching function in labor market but hiring costs) ([Fang and Nie(2013)]).
Households have assets a. These assets can be allocated to (frictionless) houses and/or to financial assets with a collateral
the rich houses and shares of the economy’s mutual fund.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 10/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations. Firms post prices before the location is filled.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations. Firms post prices before the location is filled.
Tradables (standard).
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations. Firms post prices before the location is filled.
Tradables (standard).
Competitive.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations. Firms post prices before the location is filled.
Tradables (standard).
Competitive. (Large) Adjustment costs to both capital and labor.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations. Firms post prices before the location is filled.
Tradables (standard).
Competitive. (Large) Adjustment costs to both capital and labor. Its output is used for exports, investment, and (part of) consumption.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Production: two sectors tradables and nontradables.
Nontradables
Monopolistic firms, each one producing a different variety. Each firm/variety has many locations, and each location has its own production function. Labor can be partially reallocated to accommodate demand differences across locations. Firms post prices before the location is filled.
Tradables (standard).
Competitive. (Large) Adjustment costs to both capital and labor. Its output is used for exports, investment, and (part of) consumption. Decreasing returns.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 11/58
Goods markets
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables:
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables: Households look for varieties.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables: Households look for varieties.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables: Households look for varieties. Random search.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables: Households look for varieties. Random search. Richer people consume and search more.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables: Households look for varieties. Random search. Richer people consume and search more. Cuts in consumption cut search which cuts productivity.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Goods markets
Search frictions in the markets for nontradables: Households look for varieties. Random search. Richer people consume and search more. Cuts in consumption cut search which cuts productivity. Perfect competition and frictionless markets for tradables.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 12/58
Labor market
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 13/58
Labor market
Workers are rationed.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 13/58
Labor market
Workers are rationed. Firms hire as many workers as they wish paying hiring costs. (like a vacancy filling probability of 1, with hiring costs).
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 13/58
Labor market
Workers are rationed. Firms hire as many workers as they wish paying hiring costs. (like a vacancy filling probability of 1, with hiring costs). Employment: N = NN + NT .
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 13/58
Labor market
Workers are rationed. Firms hire as many workers as they wish paying hiring costs. (like a vacancy filling probability of 1, with hiring costs). Employment: N = NN + NT . Same job finding probability across types: Φe =
V 1−N .
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 13/58
Labor market
Workers are rationed. Firms hire as many workers as they wish paying hiring costs. (like a vacancy filling probability of 1, with hiring costs). Employment: N = NN + NT . Same job finding probability across types: Φe =
V 1−N .
Wages are determined via the following formula logw − logw = εw
[Gornemann, Kuester, and Nakajima(2012)].
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 13/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply. Negative financial assets (b′ < 0) are (undefaultable) mortgages.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply. Negative financial assets (b′ < 0) are (undefaultable) mortgages.
Its interest rate 1
q is predetermined at borrowing time,
q(θ, b′) =
if b ≥ 0
1 1+r∗ − ς(θ),
if b < 0
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply. Negative financial assets (b′ < 0) are (undefaultable) mortgages.
Its interest rate 1
q is predetermined at borrowing time,
q(θ, b′) =
if b ≥ 0
1 1+r∗ − ς(θ),
if b < 0 Mortgages have to be collateralized by housing: if b < 0 then q(θ, b) |b| ≤ [1 − λ(θ)] ph(S) h
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply. Negative financial assets (b′ < 0) are (undefaultable) mortgages.
Its interest rate 1
q is predetermined at borrowing time,
q(θ, b′) =
if b ≥ 0
1 1+r∗ − ς(θ),
if b < 0 Mortgages have to be collateralized by housing: if b < 0 then q(θ, b) |b| ≤ [1 − λ(θ)] ph(S) h
Positive financial assets (b > 0) are shares of a mutual fund.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply. Negative financial assets (b′ < 0) are (undefaultable) mortgages.
Its interest rate 1
q is predetermined at borrowing time,
q(θ, b′) =
if b ≥ 0
1 1+r∗ − ς(θ),
if b < 0 Mortgages have to be collateralized by housing: if b < 0 then q(θ, b) |b| ≤ [1 − λ(θ)] ph(S) h
Positive financial assets (b > 0) are shares of a mutual fund.
Its return is stochastic. Possible capital gains and loses.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
Assets markets: Financial assets and houses
Total housing H is in fixed supply. Negative financial assets (b′ < 0) are (undefaultable) mortgages.
Its interest rate 1
q is predetermined at borrowing time,
q(θ, b′) =
if b ≥ 0
1 1+r∗ − ς(θ),
if b < 0 Mortgages have to be collateralized by housing: if b < 0 then q(θ, b) |b| ≤ [1 − λ(θ)] ph(S) h
Positive financial assets (b > 0) are shares of a mutual fund.
Its return is stochastic. Possible capital gains and loses. The return is R(S, S′, b) =
if b ≥ 0 1, if b < 0.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 14/58
State variables
A household is characterized by {ǫ, e, a}. Let X denote the measure over types x = {ǫ, e, a}. The vector of aggregate state variables is S = {θ, B, KN, KT , NN, NT , X} Here B is the net foreign asset position. K and N are predetermined factor inputs. Hence either we do Krusell-Smith or the transition after an unforeseen
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 15/58
Households’ problem
V (S, ǫ, e, a) = max
cN,i,cT ,IN,h,d u(cA, h, d)+
β
Πθ
θ,θ′ Πw e′|e,ǫ(S′) Πε ǫ,ǫ′ V [S′, ǫ′, e′, a′(S′, b, h)]
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 16/58
Households’ problem
V (S, ǫ, e, a) = max
cN,i,cT ,IN,h,d u(cA, h, d)+
β
Πθ
θ,θ′ Πw e′|e,ǫ(S′) Πε ǫ,ǫ′ V [S′, ǫ′, e′, a′(S′, b, h)]
subject to IN pi(S)cN,i + cT + ph(S)h + q(θ, b)b = a + 1e=1w(S)ǫ + 1e=0 w BC
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 16/58
Households’ problem
V (S, ǫ, e, a) = max
cN,i,cT ,IN,h,d u(cA, h, d)+
β
Πθ
θ,θ′ Πw e′|e,ǫ(S′) Πε ǫ,ǫ′ V [S′, ǫ′, e′, a′(S′, b, h)]
subject to IN pi(S)cN,i + cT + ph(S)h + q(θ, b)b = a + 1e=1w(S)ǫ + 1e=0 w BC a′(S′, b, h) = ph(S′)h + R(S, S′, b)b AA
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 16/58
Households’ problem
V (S, ǫ, e, a) = max
cN,i,cT ,IN,h,d u(cA, h, d)+
β
Πθ
θ,θ′ Πw e′|e,ǫ(S′) Πε ǫ,ǫ′ V [S′, ǫ′, e′, a′(S′, b, h)]
subject to IN pi(S)cN,i + cT + ph(S)h + q(θ, b)b = a + 1e=1w(S)ǫ + 1e=0 w BC a′(S′, b, h) = ph(S′)h + R(S, S′, b)b AA q(θ, b)b ≥ −λ(θ)ph(S)h FC
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 16/58
Households’ problem
V (S, ǫ, e, a) = max
cN,i,cT ,IN,h,d u(cA, h, d)+
β
Πθ
θ,θ′ Πw e′|e,ǫ(S′) Πε ǫ,ǫ′ V [S′, ǫ′, e′, a′(S′, b, h)]
subject to IN pi(S)cN,i + cT + ph(S)h + q(θ, b)b = a + 1e=1w(S)ǫ + 1e=0 w BC a′(S′, b, h) = ph(S′)h + R(S, S′, b)b AA q(θ, b)b ≥ −λ(θ)ph(S)h FC IN = d Ψd[Qg(S)] SC
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 16/58
Households’ problem
V (S, ǫ, e, a) = max
cN,i,cT ,IN,h,d u(cA, h, d)+
β
Πθ
θ,θ′ Πw e′|e,ǫ(S′) Πε ǫ,ǫ′ V [S′, ǫ′, e′, a′(S′, b, h)]
subject to IN pi(S)cN,i + cT + ph(S)h + q(θ, b)b = a + 1e=1w(S)ǫ + 1e=0 w BC a′(S′, b, h) = ph(S′)h + R(S, S′, b)b AA q(θ, b)b ≥ −λ(θ)ph(S)h FC IN = d Ψd[Qg(S)] SC S′ = G(S, θ′) RE
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 16/58
Nontradable firms’ problem
At each location, the production function is F N(k, ℓ1, ℓ2) = zNkα0ℓα1
1 ℓα2 2
k and ℓ1 are pre-installed. ℓ2 is variable to meet different demands.
The demand function is given by c(pi, S, x) =
p(S)
1−ρ cN(S, x)
When a shopper wants to buy c units of goods at a location, the amount of variable labor ℓ2 needed to produce c is f ℓ(c, k, ℓ1) =
1
− 1
α2
At the posted price pi, the total variable labor needed is ℓ2 ≥ Ψf[Qg(S)]
D(S)
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 17/58
Nontradable firms’ problem
ΩN(S, k, n) = max
i,v,pi ℓ1,ℓ2
Ψf[Qg(S)]pi
+
Πθ
θ,θ′ ΩN(S′, k′, n′)
1 + r∗ subject to ℓ2 ≥ Ψf[Qg(S)]
D(S) DC ℓ1 + ℓ2 = nǫ(S) SL k′ = (1 − δk)k + i − φN(k, i) LMK n′ = [1 − δn(S)]n + v LML S′ = G(S, θ′) RE
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 18/58
Tradable firms’ problem
ΩT (S, k, n) = max
i,v F T (k, ℓ) − w(S)ℓ − i − κv − φT,n(n′, n)
+
Πθ
θ,θ′ ΩT (S′, k′, n′)
1 + r∗ subject to k′ = (1 − δk)k + i − φT,k(k, i) ℓ = nǫ(S) n′ = [1 − δn(S)]n + v S′ = G(S).
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 19/58
Mutual fund
Financial wealth in the economy is L+ =
b(S, ǫ, e, a) dx Mortgages in the economy are L− =
−b(S, ǫ, e, a) dx Net foreign asset position of the country (the mutual fund owns all firms) B = L+ −
1 1 + r∗ L−
1 + r(S, S′) = ΩN(S′) + ΩT (S′) + (1 + r∗)B + L− L+
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 20/58
Equilibrium
An equilibrium is a set of decision rules and values for households, firms’ values and decision rules, and a set aggregate variables of aggregate states, such that: Households’ and firms’ policy functions and value functions solve the corresponding program problems. Aggregate searching consistence D(S) =
Nontradable prices satisfies p(S) = pi(S, KN, NN) dx, Housing market clears
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 21/58
Equilibrium
Average separation probability and labor force quality δn(S) =
N , ǫ(S) =
N Rate of return to the mutual fund satisfies 1 + r(S, S′) = ΩN(S′) + ΩT (S′) + (1 + r∗)B +
Wage satisfies logw(S) − logw = εw
employment dynamics.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 22/58
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 23/58
Functional forms
Preferences u(cA, h, d) = 1 1 − σc
d1+γ 1 + γ 1−σc + v(h) where there is an Armington aggregator for consumption cA =
N)
η−1 η
+ (1 − ω)c
η−1 η
T
η−1
and houses are inferior goods as a proxy for segmentation of housing markets v(h) =
1−σ1
h (h + h1)1−σ1 h ,
if h < h
ξh 1−σ2
h (h + h2)1−σ2 h ,
if h ≥ h.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 24/58
1 2 3 4 5 −0.5 −0.45 −0.4 −0.35 −0.3 −0.25 −0.2 −0.15 −0.1 Housing function with less curvature Housing function with more curvature 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Housing Consumption
Housing utility function Engel Curve: consumption vs housing
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 25/58
Functional forms
Production function F N(k, ℓ1, ℓ2) = zN kα0 ℓα1
1
ℓα2
2 ,
F T (k, ℓ) = zT kθ0ℓθ1 Capital adjustment cost in the nontradable goods sector φN(i, k) = εN 2 i k − δk 2 k Capital and employment adjustment cost in the tradable goods sector φT,k(i, k) = εT,k 2 i k − δk 2 k, φT,n(n′, n) = εT,n 2 n′ n − 1 2 n Matching technology M(D, T) = νDµT 1−µ
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 26/58
Exogenously determined parameters
A period is half a quarter.
Parameter Value Risk aversion for consumption, σc 2.0 Risk aversion for housing, σ1
h
2.0 Risk aversion for housing, σ2
h
10.0 Curvature of shopping, γ 1.5 Elasticity of substitution bw tradables and nontradables, η 0.80 Cutoff value for housing utility, h 1.4 Price markup, ρ 1.1 Loan to value ratio, λ 0.75 Interest rate for international bonds, r∗ 4%
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 27/58
Endogenously determined parameters: aggregate
Target Value Parameter Value Wealth to output ratio 4.70 β 0.98 Housing value to output ratio 1.67 ξh 0.95 Debt to output ratio 0.75 ǫ4 30.77 Share of tradables 0.30 ω 0.95 Occupancy Rate 0.81 ν 0.81 Capital to output ratio 2.00 δk 0.01 Labor Share in nontradables 0.64 α0 0.27 α1 = α2 —— α1 0.36 Labor Share in tradables 0.66 θ1 0.66 1.4θ0 + θ1 = 1 —— θ0 0.23 Vacancy cost to output ratio 0.02 κ 0.42 Home production to lowest earning ratio 0.50 w 0.07 Units Parameters Output 1 zN 0.93 Relative price of nontradables 1 zT 0.48 Market tightness in goods markets 1 ξd 0.03
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 28/58
Endogenously determined parameters: cross-section
Lorenz
Target Value Parameter Value Job duration for type 1 1.5 year δ1
n
0.083 Job duration for type 3 5 year δ3
n
0.025 Job duration for type 4 5 year δ4
n
0.025 Unemployment rate 6% δ2
n
0.048 Wealth Gini index 0.82 Πǫ
1,4
0.0007 Earnings Gini index 0.64 Πǫ
4,1
0.0156 Earning autocorrelation 0.91 Πǫ
1,1
0.9660 Earning stdev 0.20 Πǫ
2,2
0.9774
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 29/58
Lorenz Curve
Return
Data Model
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Net worth Housing asset Financial asset
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 30/58
Experiments: once and for all set of surprises in the environment
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 31/58
Experiments: once and for all set of surprises in the environment
1
Over the next 4.5 months the down payment changes from 25% to 27.5% to 30% to 32.5% (to avoid having households with empty choice set).
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 31/58
Experiments: once and for all set of surprises in the environment
1
Over the next 4.5 months the down payment changes from 25% to 27.5% to 30% to 32.5% (to avoid having households with empty choice set).
2
The borrowing interest rate’s surcharge goes from zero to .3%.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 31/58
Experiments: once and for all set of surprises in the environment
1
Over the next 4.5 months the down payment changes from 25% to 27.5% to 30% to 32.5% (to avoid having households with empty choice set).
2
The borrowing interest rate’s surcharge goes from zero to .3%.
3
Both at the same time.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 31/58
Experiments: once and for all set of surprises in the environment
1
Over the next 4.5 months the down payment changes from 25% to 27.5% to 30% to 32.5% (to avoid having households with empty choice set).
2
The borrowing interest rate’s surcharge goes from zero to .3%.
3
Both at the same time.
4
The inverse process. Credit expansion.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 31/58
Long Run Properties
[Huggett(1993)] - [Imrohoro˘ glu(1989)] type models, in the long run
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 32/58
Long Run Properties
[Huggett(1993)] - [Imrohoro˘ glu(1989)] type models, in the long run
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 32/58
Experiment : gradual worsening of both λ and borrowing cost
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1
Real output
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Unemployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
Consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −40 −35 −30 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 5
Investment
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 33/58
Experiment: gradual worsening of both λ and borrowing cost
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
Wealth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5
Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −20 −15 −10 −5
Housing price
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 34/58
Experiment: gradual worsening of both λ and borrowing cost
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5
TFP with total hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2
Labor Productivity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Labor quality
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5
TFP with total labor inputs
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 35/58
Experiment : gradual worsening of both λ and borrowing cost
Change of labor quality in both pools when wages are flexible
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Employed Unemployed
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 36/58
Experiment: gradual improvement of λ from 0.75 to 0.825
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Real output
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6 6.2 6.4
Unemployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Investment
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 37/58
Experiment: gradual improvement of λ from 0.75 to 0.825
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Wealth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 4 6 8 10 12
Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Housing price
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 38/58
Experiment: gradual improvement of λ from 0.75 to 0.825
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
TFP with total hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Labor Productivity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.1
Labor quality
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
TFP with total labor inputs
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 39/58
Experiment 5: More flexible wage schedule
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5
Real output
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
Unemployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1
Consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 5
Investment
Flexible wage ǫw = 0.45 Flexible wage ǫw = 1
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 40/58
Experiment 5: More flexible wage schedule
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1
Wealth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2
Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −14 −12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2
Housing price
Flexible wage ǫw = 0.45 Flexible wage ǫw = 1
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 41/58
Experiment 5: More flexible wage schedule
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4
TFP with total hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1 −0.5 0.5
Labor Productivity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Labor quality
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1.2 −1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2
TFP with total labor inputs
Flexible wage ǫw = 0.45 Flexible wage ǫw = 1
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 42/58
Results: a boom and bust cycle
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.7 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76
Loan to value ratio λ
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 43/58
Results: a boom and bust cycle
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5 1 1.5
Real output
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
Unemployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3
Consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 5 10 15
Investment
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 44/58
Results: a boom and bust cycle
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −4 −3 −2 −1 1 2 3 4
Wealth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −8 −6 −4 −2 2 4 6 8 10 12
Housing price
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 45/58
Results: a boom and bust cycle
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1 −0.5 0.5
TFP with total hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Labor Productivity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Labor quality
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6
TFP with total labor inputs
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 46/58
Conclusions
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions)
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions) Drop in Stock Market
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions) Drop in Stock Market
The literature is trying hard to get this ([Midrigan and Philippon(2011)],
[Guerrieri and Lorenzoni(2009)]) with limited success.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions) Drop in Stock Market
The literature is trying hard to get this ([Midrigan and Philippon(2011)],
[Guerrieri and Lorenzoni(2009)]) with limited success.
Still ways to go:
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions) Drop in Stock Market
The literature is trying hard to get this ([Midrigan and Philippon(2011)],
[Guerrieri and Lorenzoni(2009)]) with limited success.
Still ways to go:
Foreclosures; slow housing frictions; Long term Mortgages.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions) Drop in Stock Market
The literature is trying hard to get this ([Midrigan and Philippon(2011)],
[Guerrieri and Lorenzoni(2009)]) with limited success.
Still ways to go:
Foreclosures; slow housing frictions; Long term Mortgages. Slow expanding export industries.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
Conclusions
We have a recession generated purely by increased difficulties to borrow on the part of households The recession comes together with
TFP loses Drop in Housing prices (movements too sharp because of lack of house frictions) Drop in Stock Market
The literature is trying hard to get this ([Midrigan and Philippon(2011)],
[Guerrieri and Lorenzoni(2009)]) with limited success.
Still ways to go:
Foreclosures; slow housing frictions; Long term Mortgages. Slow expanding export industries. Model of banking cycles.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 47/58
References
Aiyagari, S. Rao. 1994. “Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 109:659–684. Bai, Yan, Jos´ e-V´ ıctor R´ ıos-Rull, and Kjetil Storesletten. 2011. “Demand Shocks as Productivity Shocks.” Working paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Bewley, Truman. 1986. “Stationary Monetary Equilibrium with a Continuum of Independently Fluctuating Consumers.” In Contributions to Mathematical Economics in Honor of G´ erard Debreu, edited by Werner Hildenbrand and Andreu Mas-Colell. Amsterdam: North Holland. Fang, Lei and Jun Nie. 2013. “Education, Human Capital and U.S. Labor Market Dynamics.” Presented at MidWest Macro Meetings. Gornemann, Nils, Keith Kuester, and Makoto Nakajima. 2012. “Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents.” Mimeo, FRB Philadelphia. Guerrieri, Veronica and Guido Lorenzoni. 2009. “Liquidity and Trading Dynamics.” Econometrica 77 (6):1751–1790. Huggett, Mark. 1993. “The Risk-Free Rate in Heterogeneous-Agent, Incomplete-Insurance Economies.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17:953–970. Huo, Zhen and Jos´ e-V´ ıctor R´ ıos-Rull. 2013a. “Balance Sheet Recessions.” Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. ———. 2013b. “Paradox of Thrift Recessions.” Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Imrohoro˘ glu, A. 1989. Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 48/58
Facts on the last recession: IV
Return
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.2 0.21 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65
Debt to wealth Debt to housing value
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 49/58
Facts: Continued
Return
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Real output
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20 40 60 80 100 120
Consumption Investment
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 50/58
Facts: Continued
Return
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
TFP with total hours Labor productivity
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105
Labor quality TFP with total labor inputs
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 51/58
Facts: Continued
‘Real output’, ‘consumption’ and ‘investment’ are ‘Gross Domestic Product’, ‘Personal Consumption Expenditures’ and ‘Gross Private Domestic Investment’ from BEA. ‘TFP with total hours’ is calculated by Fernald (2012). ‘Labor productivity’ is total output divided by total hours. ‘Labor quality’ follows Aaronson and Sullivan (2001), which are extended by Bart Hobijn and Joyce Kwok (FRBSF). ‘TFP with total labor inputs’ is total output divided by the product of total hours and labor quality. These variables shown at the beginning are deviations from their linear
2007 q4 normalized to 100.
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 52/58
Experiment 1: gradual change of λ from 0.75 to 0.675
+
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5
Real output
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10
Unemployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1
Consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 5
Investment
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 53/58
Experiment 1: gradual change of λ from 0.75 to 0.675
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 1
Wealth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2
Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −14 −12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2
Housing price
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 54/58
Experiment 1: gradual change of λ from 0.75 to 0.675
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1.2 −1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2
TFP with total hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5 1
Labor Productivity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
Labor quality
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −1.4 −1.2 −1 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2
TFP with total labor inputs
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 55/58
Experiment 2: gradual change of borrowing cost from 0 to 0.3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5
Real output
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
Unemployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5
Consumption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −16 −14 −12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 2
Investment
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 56/58
Experiment 2: gradual change of borrowing cost from 0 to 0.3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5
Wealth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
Housing price
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 57/58
Experiment 2: gradual change of borrowing cost from 0 to 0.3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.5 −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.1 0.2
TFP with total hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Labor Productivity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Labor quality
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 −0.7 −0.6 −0.5 −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1
TFP with total labor inputs
Flexible wage Fixed wage
Huo & R´ ıos-Rull, UMN, Mpls Fed, CAERP Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, & the Great Recession LBS Nov 13 2014 58/58