Exploring Rural America: County Economies 2015 Emilia Istrate | - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Exploring Rural America: County Economies 2015 Emilia Istrate | Research Director Washington, DC / May 5, 2016 The U.S. Economy Is Recovering Economic Output Unemployment Employment Home Values (GDP) Rate Source: Bureau of Labor

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Washington, DC / May 5, 2016

Emilia Istrate | Research Director

Exploring Rural America: County Economies 2015

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015

Unemployment Rate Employment

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2015

Home Values Economic Output (GDP)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 Source: Case-Shiller housing index from S&P, 2015

The U.S. Economy Is Recovering

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NACo.org/CountyEconomies

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2015 Was A Year Of Accelerated Recovery

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But Not On Economic Output

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Unemployment Rate Home Prices Jobs GDP 2014 2015

Small County Economies Recovered In 2014 And 2015

Source: NACo Analysis of Moody’s Analytics 2015 Data

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Source: NACo Analysis of Moody’s Analytics 2015 Data

Economic Output (GDP) Declined In 47% Of Small County Economies in 2015

5.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

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The Economic Recovery Is Spreading Out More Rapidly

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Large County Economies Medium-sized County Economies Small County Economies Share of Total Jobs Share of Manufacturing Jobs Share of Agricultural Jobs

49% 42% 52%

Source: NACo Analysis of Moody’s Analytics 2014 Data

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Fully Recovered by 2014

NACo Analysis of Moody’s 2014 Data NONE 1 2 3 4

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The recovery is creating an uneven geography of

pportunity

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Annual Wages In Two-Thirds Of Small County Economies Increased 2013-2014

2013- 2014 Cost of Living and Inflation Adjusted Average County Pay Growth Rate Less than -5%

5% - 0%

0%-5% 5%-10% Greater than 10% NACo Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Data; U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Data; and U.S. Census Bureau Data

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Decline & Decline Average Real Wage Growth vs Productivity Growth 2009-2014 Decline & Rise Rise & Decline Rise & Rise

Mismatched Real Wages And Productivity Growth

Source: NACo Analysis of Moody’s 2015 Data; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The Uneven Recovery Adds To Challenges Facing Counties

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