Economic Overview GET ET O OFF FF OF MY MY CLOUD OUD IPSOS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economic Overview

GET ET O OFF FF OF MY MY CLOUD OUD

IPSOS GLOBAL CONFIDENCE INDEX December 2017 Source: IPSOS, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

OECD BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Select Regions / Countries 104 OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States China 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions. Source: OECD, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

ESTIMATED GROWTH IN OUTPUT Select Global Areas | 2018 Projected Advanced Economies 2.3% Euro Area 2.2% Spain 2.4% Germany 2.3% France 1.9% United Kingdom 1.5% Italy 1.4% Japan 1.2% Australia 2.9% Canada 2.3% United States 2.7% Emerging Market & Developing Economies 4.9% Sub-Saharan Africa 3.3% Emerging & Developing Europe 4.0% Russia 1.7% Emerging & Developing Asia 6.5% China 6.6% India 7.4% Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan 3.6% Latin America & the Caribbean 1.9% Mexico 2.3% Brazil 1.9% 2018 2018 Pro Proj. G Globa bal O l Outpu put G Growth: + h: +3.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2017 Growth (Estimate) A N N U A L % C H A N G E World: 3.7% Euro Area: 2.4% United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.8% Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update January 2018, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

100 120 140 20 40 60 80 United States CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Source: Conference Board, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. 0 2005 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 January 2018 Feb-16 125. 125.4 Jun-16 2018 = Oct-16 Note: 1985 = 100. Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17

NFIB INDEX OF SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM United States 110 December 2017 2017 = 104. 104.9 105 100 95 90 85 80 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: National Federation of Independent Business, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. Note: Data is seasonally adjusted 1986 = 100.

PAINT IT BLACK – CORPORATE PROFITS United States $2,000 Q3 3 2017 2017 = $1. $1.74 74 Trillio lion $1,600 I N B I L L I O N S $1,200 $800 $400 $0 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. Note: After tax with IVA and CCAdj .

I N M I L L I O N S United States JOB OPENINGS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 November 2017 = May-15 Nov-15 5.88 5. May-16 88 Nov-16 2017 = May-17 Nov-17

BEASTS OF BURDEN – NONFARM EMPLOYMENT United States | December 2016 vs. December 2017 Professional and Business Services 527 Education and Health Services 438 Leisure and Hospitality 306 Construction 210 Manufacturing 196 2, 2,055K 055K j jobs Financial Activities 134 ga gained Other Services 109 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 74 Mining and Logging 59 Government 42 -40 Information -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 I N T H O U S A N D S Note: Data is seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH - PERCENT CHANGE 25 Largest Metros | December 2016 vs. December 2017 Orlando 3.8% Riverside-San Bernardino San Antonio Seattle-Bellevue Portland Dallas-Fort Worth Miami Minneapolis-St. Paul Tampa Denver Boston Atlanta Phoenix Charlotte Washington 1.7% San Francisco Detroit San Diego Houston Los Angeles St. Louis Philadelphia New York Chicago Baltimore 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – CES Survey, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 25 Largest Metros | November 2017 Chicago 4.7% Philadelphia New York Houston Charlotte Atlanta Seattle-Bellevue Riverside-San Bernardino Miami Baltimore 4.1% Los Angeles Phoenix Detroit Washington 3.6% Tampa United ted S Sta tates tes = Portland 4. 4.1% 1% Orlando St. Louis San Diego Dallas-Fort Worth San Antonio Boston Denver San Francisco Minneapolis-St. Paul 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted and area Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

GI GIMME E SHEL HELTER ER

MEGATREND ONE The Revenge of Homeownership

10% United States 15-YEAR AND 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATES Source: Freddie Mac, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 *Week ending 1/25/2018. Jan-15 30-Year 15-Year Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 4.15% Jul-17 3.62% Jan-18*

HOUSEHOLDS: OWNER VS. RENTER OCCUPIED United States 80 N U M B E R O F H O U S E H O L D H E A D S I N M I L L I O N S 75.4 From 2006-2016 the • 75.0 Owner Occupied number of households Renter Occupied headed by owners 70 remained relatively flat. 60 50 At the same time, the • 43.3 number of households 36.2 renting their home 40 34.2 increased significantly (+26.5%). 30 21.3 20 • The share of renter 10 households also increased—from 31.2% of households in 2006 to 0 36.6% in 2016. 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: Census Bureau; Pew Research Center, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

HOMEOWNERSHIP United States 70% 68% Q4 4 2017 = 2017 = 66% 64. 64.2% 2% 64% 62% 60% 58% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Census Bureau, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

PRIVATE NEW MULTIFAMILY CONSTRUCTION United States November 2017 = 2017 = $70 $60. $60.5 $60 $50 I N B I L L I O N S $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Note: Data is seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Census Bureau, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

I N T H O U S A N D S United States SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS Source: Census Bureau, Sage Policy Group; February 2018. 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 200 400 600 800 0 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 Note: Data is seasonally adjusted annual rate. May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 December 2017 May-15 Nov-15 836 836 May-16 Nov-16 2017 = May-17 Nov-17

S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDICES Select Metro Areas | 12-Month Ending November 2017 12% 10.6% 10% 9.1% P E R C E N T C H A N G E 8% 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 7.0% 6.4% 6.3% 5.7% 6% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 4% 3.3% 2% 0% Source: Standard & Poor’s, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.

NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING United States | November 2014 vs. November 2017 Lodging 58.9% Office 45.2% Communication 33.9% Commercial 29.6% Amusement and Recreation 29.1% Educational 26.5% Health Care 7.7% Transportation 7.2% Power 7.1% Highway and Street 2.4% Conservation and Development -5.6% Total N Nonresid identia ial l Public Safety -8.3% Construction: Religious -8.4% +$81. $81.5 5 Billio lion; + +12. 12.8% 8% Manufacturing -14.2% Sewage and Waste Disposal -14.9% Water Supply -18.4% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% T H R E E - Y E A R P E R C E N T C H A N G E Source: Census Bureau, Sage Policy Group; February 2018.