Economic Outlook Ted C. Jones May 17, 2018 The webinar will begin - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Welcome to today’s webinar! Economic Outlook Ted C. Jones May 17, 2018 The webinar will begin shortly. Phone | 1-800-619-3315 Passcode | 4597908

PLEASE NOTE: THE FOLLOWING PRESENTATION IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE TITLE INSURANCE LICENSEES WITH INFORMATION ABOUT VARIOUS ECONOMIC ISSUES RELEVANT TO THEIR TITLE INSURANCE BUSINESS AND TO ASSIST IN THEIR PLANNING FOR RUNNING THEIR AGENCIES AND OFFICES. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT INTENDED NOR SHOULD IT BE USED TO MAKE INVESTMENT DECISIONS REGARDING STOCKS, BONDS OR OTHER SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY INCLUDING STEWART INFORMATION SYSTEMS OR ANY OTHER COMPANY.

 In order to obtain a CE Certificate or CLE Credit, you must  listen to the webinar for a minimum of 55 minutes  obtain the password (provided at the end of the presentation)  follow the instructions as given 3

ATTORNEY INFORMATION Because of opinions expressed by the Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) concerning rebates, legal credit is available only to:  Attorneys who own title agencies that are Stewart Title Guaranty Agents  Attorneys employed by a title insurance agent licensed with Stewart Title Guaranty or Stewart entities  Fee attorneys who have an Escrow Officer license through a Stewart Title Agent or Stewart entity We welcome any other lawyers to listen, but cannot provide continuing education credit to you. 4

-25

Hurricanes & Disasters

How Deep The Water Got In Houston

Disaster Economic Impact 6-12 Months Later Immediate Impact • Strong Job • Loss of Jobs • Declining Home Growth • Rising Home Sales Sales

New Orleans MSA Employment Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted 650 Hurricane Katrina 600 550 500 450 400 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Punta Gorda MSA Employment Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted 50 Hurricane Charlie 48 45 43 40 38 35 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

+11.1% Cape Coral-Ft Myers MSA Home Sales Hurricane Charlie August 2004 Closings Per Months 13,646 +11.1% 12,281 Sep 2004- Aug 2003- Aug 2005 July 2004 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

+6.3% U.S. Existing Home Sales Hurricane Charlie August 2004 Closings Per Months 6.609 Million 7.027 Million +6.3% Thousands Aug 2003- Sep 2004- July 2004 Aug 2005 800 600 400 200 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06

U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted 150 1.56% Prior 12 Months 145 2.28 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 140 135 130 125 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Millions of Jobs The Blood Pressure Test of the U.S. Economy Seasonally-Adjusted Recession 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 Hurricanes 14.5 Harvey 14.0 & Irma 13.5 +1.74% Past 12 Months 13.0 12.5 0 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

U.S. Net Job Gains – Trailing 12-Months Jobs - Millions 4 3 2 1 0 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings $US Per Hour $27 Up 2.6 Percent in Past 12-Months $26 To $26.84 Per Hour $25 $24 $23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

1 st st Time Time Applicants pplicants Une Unemplo mployme yment nt 220,0 220,000 00 Benefits Benefits Week Ending eek Ending Januar anuary 13 y 13 2018 2018

1 st st Time Time Applicants pplicants Une Unemplo mployme yment nt 210,000 210,0 00 Benefits Benefits Week Ending eek Ending Febr bruar uary 24 y 24 2018 2018

1 st st Time Time Applicants pplicants Une Unemplo mployme yment nt 215,000 215,0 00 Benefits Benefits Week Ending eek Ending Mar March h 24 24 2018 2018

1 st st Time Time Applicants pplicants Une Unemplo mployme yment nt 211,0 211,000 00 Benefits Benefits Week Ending eek Ending May 5 May 5 2018 2018

Total otal People eople on on 1.81 1.81 Une Unemplo mployme yment nt Benefits Benefits Million Milli on April pril 2018 2018

January 16, 2018 90% of workers should see an increase when new guidelines are implemented

Per ercent cent of of U.S. .S. 13.6% 13.6% Popula opulation tion Aged 25 Aged 25-34 34

Per ercent cent of of 36% 36% Home Homebuy buyer ers Prior Prior Year ear Aged 25 Aged 25-34 34

130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 47% Have an Easy Job Working for Someone Else 53% Work for Yourself But Work Incredibly Hard 9GAG + GfK Research

130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 29% Commit to a Guaranteed Job for Next 3 Years 71% Commit to a Start-Up Opportunity 9GAG + GfK Research

130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 95% Gain 10 Friends in Real Life 5% Gain 10,000 Friends on Instagram-Twitter 9GAG + GfK Research

130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 33% Lose the Right to Vote 67% Lose the Right to Say Anything on Social Media 9GAG + GfK Research

130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 43% Give Up Sex 57% Give Up the Internet 9GAG + GfK Research

State Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending March 2018 Utah 3.29% Pennsylvania 1.42% Minnesota 0.73% Idaho 3.26% Michigan 1.40% Iowa 0.67% Nevada 2.95% Rhode Island 1.30% West Virginia 0.67% Washington 2.77% New Hampshire 1.26% Illinois 0.65% Texas 2.42% Hawaii 1.26% Nebraska 0.64% Colorado 2.35% Mississippi 1.25% Montana 0.64% Arizona 2.30% Wyoming 1.25% Louisiana 0.61% Oregon 2.20% New York 1.19% Delaware 0.55% Florida 2.03% Massachusetts 1.16% Dist of Columbia 0.51% California 1.92% New Mexico 1.16% Maine 0.46% South Carolina 1.71% Wisconsin 1.01% Connecticut 0.46% Oklahoma 1.69% Virginia 1.00% Maryland 0.40% North Carolina 1.67% Missouri 0.99% Arkansas 0.36% Tennessee 1.63% Ohio 0.98% Kentucky 0.23% New Jersey 1.63% Alabama 0.96% Vermont 0.19% Georgia 1.47% Indiana 0.89% Alaska -0.21% South Dakota 1.45% Kansas 0.76% North Dakota -1.27%

Texas Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted 150 2.42% Prior 12 Months 145 294,100 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 140 135 130 125 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending March 2018 12-Months Percent Jobs-Thousands Rank MSA-Division State Change New Total 1 Midland Texas 9.29% 8.40 98.8 2 Odessa Texas 6.16% 4.40 75.8 3 Elkhart-Goshen Indiana 6.12% 8.30 143.9 4 St. George Utah 5.08% 3.20 66.2 Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin Florida 4.89% 5.50 117.9 5 6 College Station - Bryan Texas 4.76% 5.50 121.1 7 Yakima Washington 4.69% 4.00 89.3 8 Greeley Colorado 4.65% 4.80 108.1 9 Lake Charles Louisiana 4.49% 5.10 118.7 10 Carson City Nevada 4.39% 1.30 30.9 11 Walla Walla Washington 4.36% 1.20 28.7 12 Gettysburg Pennsylvania 4.06% 1.40 35.9 13 Rockford Illinois 4.06% 5.90 151.3 14 Wenatchee-East Wenatchee Washington 4.04% 1.80 46.3 15 Reno Nevada 4.04% 9.20 237.2

MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending March 2018 12-Months Percent Jobs-Thousands Rank MSA-Division State Change New Total 16 Boise City Idaho 3.96% 12.40 325.4 17 Provo-Orem Utah 3.90% 9.60 255.6 18 Pocatello Idaho 3.86% 1.40 37.7 19 Kokomo Indiana 3.86% 1.60 43.1 20 Albany Oregon 3.85% 1.70 45.8 21 Bend-Redmond Oregon 3.84% 3.10 83.9 22 Gainesville Georgia 3.82% 3.40 92.4 23 Ocean City New Jersey 3.76% 1.60 44.1 24 Yuba City California 3.74% 1.60 44.4 25 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford Florida 3.60% 44.70 1,284.7 26 Madera California 3.49% 1.30 38.5 27 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Texas 3.49% 35.80 1,060.3 28 Augusta - Richmond County GA-SC 3.41% 8.00 242.9 29 Idaho Falls Idaho 3.40% 2.20 67.0 30 Medford Oregon 3.37% 2.90 88.9

MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending March 2018 12-Months Percent Jobs-Thousands MSA-Division Change New Total Abilene 1.61% 1.1 69.4 Amarillo 1.43% 1.7 120.6 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 3.64% 37.2 1,058.5 Beaumont-Port Arthur -0.97% (1.6) 162.6 Brownsville - Harlingen -0.14% (0.2) 141.2 College Station - Bryan 5.06% 5.8 120.4 Corpus Christi -0.98% (1.9) 191.4 Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington 2.62% 93.5 3,657.8 Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro Div 2.73% 69.4 2,613.1

MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending March 2018 12-Months Percent Jobs-Thousands MSA-Division Change New Total El Paso 0.99% 3.1 314.9 Ft Worth-Arlington Metro Div. 2.38% 24.3 1,044.7 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land 2.20% 66.1 3,068.3 Killeen-Temple 1.26% 1.8 144.3 Laredo 1.75% 1.8 104.8 Longview 0.94% 0.9 96.8 Lubbock 1.91% 2.8 149.5 McAllen Edinburg-Mission 1.88% 4.8 260.6 Midland 8.59% 7.7 97.3

MSA & Division Job Growth -- 12 Months Ending March 2018 12-Months Percent Jobs-Thousands MSA-Division Change New Total Odessa 7.10% 5.0 75.4 San Angelo 1.23% 0.6 49.5 San Antonio-New Braunfels 2.38% 24.5 1,055.5 Sherman-Denison 1.28% 0.6 47.5 Texarkana 0.33% 0.2 60.3 Tyler 2.31% 2.4 106.1 Victoria -0.24% (0.1) 41.1 Waco 0.08% 0.1 121.2 Wichita Falls 0.34% 0.2 59.1