Economic Outlook 2016 National Trends Focus on San Diego 32 nd Annual - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Dec 20, 2022 250 likes •417 views

Economic Outlook 2016 National Trends Focus on San Diego 32 nd Annual San Diego Economic Roundtable January 14, 2016 Marney Cox, Dir. Capital Projects San Diego Association of Governments 2015What Happened? Expected New, Improved GDP

SLIDE 1

Economic Outlook 2016

National Trends Focus on San Diego

32nd Annual San Diego Economic Roundtable

January 14, 2016

Marney Cox, Dir. Capital Projects

San Diego Association of Governments

SLIDE 2

2015…What Happened?

Expected
New, Improved GDP Growth
Labor Market Tightening
Fed Raise Interest Rates
Unexpected Surprises
Same Old GDP Growth
Falling oil prices/interest rates/inflation
Currency Devaluations
Emerging Trends
US Economy‐Tallest Pigmy
Stronger Dollar/ Global Weakness
Commodity Price Deflation
Range Bound Interest Rates

SLIDE 3

US Economy…Three Positive Trends

US Annual Job Change Monthly Retail Sales M$ Personal Savings Rate 2000…………….2015 2000…………….2015 2000…………….2015

SLIDE 4

US Economy…Three Lingering Challenges…

Slow Growth ‐ Distressed Workers ‐ Stagnate Wages

Potential GDP Trillion$ Gap Actual GDP GDP Gap

2000 2014 2007 2014

Distressed Workers (000) U LT-U PT-E D

97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107

25% 75% median

Real Weekly Wages Index 2004=100

2004 2014

SLIDE 5

2016 Outlook for San Diego

SLIDE 6

SD Job Growth and Hourly Earnings

‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ‐80,000 ‐60,000 ‐40,000 ‐20,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 JOBS

Annual Jobs Change

SD Annual Emp Change SD Emp pct cng US Emp pct cng 100 110 120 130 140 150 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

SD Hourly Earnings Change (Index 2002=100)

10th percentile Median 90th

SLIDE 7

SD Leading the US

Payroll Job Growth (12/07=100)

Unemployment Rate (SAAR) 2002 2015 2005 2015 U.S. U.S.

SLIDE 8

SD Not All Industries Have Fully Recovered

81,900 Net Job Increase Dec 07‐Nov 15

‐20 ‐10 10 20 30 40 50 60 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Util Information Financial Activities Prof & Bus Services Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Thousands of Jobs

SLIDE 9

SD Created 6 More Low than High Paying Private Sector Jobs

Unbalanced Job Growth Affects Distribution of Wages

1990-2011 Growth

Compensation Category / Median Wage ($2011)

Average Salary Increase ($2011) Real Salary Growth ’90-’11 Job Growth 1990-2011

Highest Paying Jobs (Top 1/3) / $83,000 $23,000 38.0% 34,200 Mid Level Paying Jobs (Middle 1/3) / $48,200 $5,400 13.0% 85,500 Low Level Paying Jobs (Lowest 1/3) / $25,500 $3,200 14.0% 222,500

SLIDE 10

SD Housing Permits & Prices

Housing Permits C‐S Home Price Index (2000=100)

2000 2015 $538K

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00

Index 2000 = 100

$536K $460K 2000 2015

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Permits

Single Family Permits Multi‐Family Permits

NOV 15

SLIDE 11

CA Housing Supply Demand

Supply Not Keeping Pace With Demand

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Share of Housing Permits Share of Population

Less Affordable Median Income/Price

SLIDE 12

SD Total Taxable Sales

Annual B$

Annual Percent Change

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Billions

SD Region Taxable Sales

‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

SLIDE 13

SD Venture Capital Funds

Resources for High Tech Jobs, M$ per Year & % of Total

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 SD Annual VC Funds (Ave. $1.1B) SD VC as percent of total

1H15

(AVE. 3.4%)

SLIDE 14

SD Trade with Mexico Thru Otay Mesa

($35B in 2013; 6% CAGR)

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Billions $ exports imports

SLIDE 15

SD Forecast 2016

Indicator 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Population Growth (%) 3,154,574 0.7 3,192,457 1.2 3,227,496 1.1 3,268,500 1.3 Unemployment Rate( Dec. %) 6.8 5.5 5.1 4.8 Payroll Employment (Dec. yoy) Growth (% yoy) Jobs 1,347,400 2.6 34,700 1,378,400 2.3 31,000 1,416,200 2.7 37,800 1,451,200 2.5 35,000 Median Home Price(Aug) Growth (%) $412,000 13.4 $434,000 5.5 $459,000 5.8 $481,000 5.0 Residential Permits 8,264 6,874 8,500 9,000 Single Family Permits (% SF) 2,564 31 2,486 36 2,975 35 3,150 35 Multi‐Family Permits (% MF) 5,700 69 4,388 64 6,150 65 7,350 65 Taxable Sales ($ Millions) Growth (%) $49,444 4.3 $51,100 3.3 $52,900 3.5 $54,700 3.5