Earnings Results
Fourth Quarter 2018
January 31, 2019
Earnings Results Fourth Quarter 2018 January 31, 2019 Cautionary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Earnings Results Fourth Quarter 2018 January 31, 2019 Cautionary Language Risk Factors. This presentation, including the oral statements made in connection herewith, contains forward-looking statements, estimates and projections within the
Fourth Quarter 2018
January 31, 2019
Cautionary Language
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Risk Factors. This presentation, including the oral statements made in connection herewith, contains forward-looking statements, estimates and projections within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements that are not historical are forward-looking and may include our operational and strategic plans; estimates of gas reserves and resources; projected timing and rates of return of future investments; and projections and estimates of future production, revenues, income and capital spending. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements, estimates and projections. Investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of future actual results. The forward-looking statements in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation; we disclaim any obligation to update the statements, and we caution you not to rely
Specific factors that could cause future actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements are described in detail under the captions "Forward Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 filed with the SEC, as supplemented by our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Those risk factors discuss, among
equipment, access to adequate water sources and customer interactions; the impact of laws and regulations on our business and industry; competitive and economic concerns; risks associated with our debt and hedging strategy; our ability to acquire economically recoverable natural gas reserves; challenges associated with strategic determinations, including the allocation of capital to strategic opportunities; our development and exploration projects and potential acquisitions or divestitures, as well as CNXM's midstream system development.
given date to be economically and legally producible and deliverable by application of development projects to known accumulations. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as EUR (estimated ultimate recovery), unproved reserves and total resource potential, that the SEC's rules strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. We caution you that the SEC views such estimates as inherently unreliable and these estimates may be misleading to investors unless the investor is an expert in the natural gas industry. These measures are by their nature more speculative than estimates of reserves prepared in accordance with SEC definitions and guidelines and accordingly are less certain. We also note that the SEC strictly prohibits us from aggregating proved, probable and possible reserves in filings with the SEC due to the different levels of certainty associated with each reserve category.
the commencement of natural gas drilling operations on our properties, we conduct a thorough title examination and perform curative work with respect to significant defects. We are typically responsible for curing any title defects at our expense. As a result of our title review or otherwise, we may be required to acquire property rights from third parties at our expense in order to effectively drill and produce the gas rights we control and third parties may participate in the wells we drill, thereby reducing our working interest in those wells. Reconciliation. As it relates to the disclosures within this presentation of projected Adjusted EBITDA and EBITDAX for fiscal or quarterly periods in 2019-2022, for CNX or CNXM, CNX Resources is unable to provide a reconciliation of such metrics to projected operating income, the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items for each of CNX and CNXM, respectively. Data. This presentation has been prepared by CNX and includes market data and other statistical information from sources believed by CNX to be reliable, including independent industry publications, government publications and other published independent sources. Some data are also based on CNX’s good faith estimates, which are derived from its review of internal sources as well as the independent sources described above. Although CNX believes these sources are reliable, it has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Not an Offer. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy securities of CNX Resources Corporation or CNX Midstream Partners LP.
Executive Summary
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Q4 2018 EXPECTATION STRATEGIC INITIATIVE 2018 Production & EBITDAX per Share Growth(1)
▪ Q4 2018 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX Per Share(2)
increased 90% year-over-year
▪ Adjusted EBITDAX per share growth remains an output of
prudent capital allocation
Balance Sheet & Leverage Ratio(1)
▪ Ended year at 2.25x attributable net debt / TTM
attributable adjusted EBITDAX or below the stated 2.5x target
▪ Leverage will continue to be evaluated on a number of
bases in order to fully evaluate the health of the balance sheet and capacity to buy back shares as well as invest in incremental activity and M&A opportunities
Share Repurchases
▪ Repurchased an additional 6.8 million shares from the
beginning of the quarter through January 18, 2019 bringing the total number of retired shares to 32.6 million since the program began in Q4 2017
▪ Share repurchases remain a major part of the strategy and
will be executed opportunistically through 2019 and into 2020
Operational Execution
▪ Production of 136 Bcfe in Q4 2018 resulted in 507 Bcfe
produced for the full year
▪ Many operational successes in 2018 headlined by
▪ Majority of development plan for 2019 remains in SWPA
Marcellus while SWPA and CPA Utica wells continue to be studied
2019 Guidance Update
▪ Updated 2019 guidance includes minimum production of
495-515 Bcfe and D&C capital of $575-$625 million
▪ Pro forma minimum production growth of 3-7% ▪ 2019 capital guidance supports base development activity;
incremental activity will depend on factors such as CNX share price, forward strip pricing, Utica data set, and supply/demand indicators
▪ Guidance updates will be made accordingly through the year
Commitment to the Strategy
▪ The CNX philosophy and strategy drove the 14%
reduction in shares since October 2017 while drastically reducing leverage and growing operational scale
▪ Grew EBITDAX year-over-year despite divestitures ▪ Capital allocation through a rate of returns focus continues
to be the strategy; share repurchases remain a priority along with growing balance sheet capacity through disciplined production and EBITDAX growth
CNX Resources is unable to provide a reconciliation of projected Adjusted EBITDAX to projected net income, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items. (1) See non-GAAP reconciliation table below. (2) When using shares outstanding as of January 18, 2019.
Steadfast in Philosophy
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PHILOSOPHY
Maximize the long-term per share value
through prudent capital allocation and continuous cost management Risk-adjusted returns set basis for all capital allocation decisions
RETURNS
Flexibility in development plans and capital deployment drive optionality
FLEXIBILITY
Hedging and minimal commitments reduce risk
HEDGING
Substantial share repurchases compound per share value
REPURCHASES
Confident in Strategy
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MINIMUM BASE OF ACTIVITY INCREMENTAL ACTIVITY EBITDAX GROWTH BALANCE SHEET CAPACITY SHARE COUNT REDUCTION
HEDGE BOOK LOW COST STRUCTURE
PLAN RISK MITIGATION
NAV/SHARE GROWTH
Strategy designed to work through the cycle and does so at strip pricing in all periods
STRONG MARGINS MINIMAL COMMITMENTS HIGH RATES OF RETURN
PLAN FLEXIBILITY BASED ON REAL-TIME DECISIONS
This process, which grew EBITDAX and reduced shares through 2018, is primed to be deployed in 2019 and beyond
The Strategy Drives Significant EBTIDAX per Share Growth
Note: Calculated as Adjusted EBITDAX divided by period end shares outstanding as disclosed in SEC filings.
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$0.54 $0.45 $0.48 $0.83 $1.08 $0.96 $1.03 $1.41 $- $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Per Share Adjusted EBITDAX Attributable to CNX Resources Shareholders Q1 2017 – Q4 2018
Q4 2018 Summary ($ in millions, except per share data) 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 Y/Y Units Y/Y - % 4Q 2018 3Q 2018 Q/Q Units Q/Q - % Revenue and Other Income from Continuing Operations $435 $477 ($42)
$435 $397 $38 10% Consolidated Adjusted Net Income / (Loss)(1) $160 $217 ($57)
$160 $57 $103 181% Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX(1) $314 $187 $127 68% $314 $239 $75 31% Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX(1) Per Share $1.58 $0.83 $0.75 90% $1.58 $1.12 $0.46 41% Shares Outstanding at Period End (millions) 198.3 223.8 (25.5)
198.3 203.6 (5.3)
Q4 2018 Financial Results Summary
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Note: The terms “Consolidated adjusted EBITDAX,” “Adjusted EBITDAX attributable to CNX Resources Shareholders,” “Consolidated adjusted EBITDAX per share,” and “adjusted net income“ are non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to the GAAP net income below. (1) See non-GAAP reconciliation table below. (2) When using shares outstanding as of January 18, 2019.
Q4 2018 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX Per Share(2) increased
year-over-year
Net Income and Adjusted EBITDAX ▪ Consolidated net income of $129 million in the 2018 fourth quarter; consolidated adjusted net income of $160 million(1); adjusted net income excludes the following pre- tax items:
▪ Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX in the fourth quarter of $314 million or $1.58
Shareholders was $279 million(1) in the fourth quarter
(2) (2)
$1.69 $1.65 $1.59 $1.46 $1.31 $1.22 $1.33 $1.63 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
$/Mcfe Total Fully-Burdened Cash Costs Total Fully-Burdened Cash Margin
$1.21 $1.09 $1.04 $1.00 $1.79 $1.78 $1.88 $2.09 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
$/Mcfe Total Production Cash Costs Total Production Cash Margin
E&P Standalone Costs and Margins Drive Rates of Return
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Production Cash Costs(1) and Margins FY2018
Margin 58% 61% 64% 68%
CNX has the lowest per unit cash production costs of all southwest Marcellus operators driven largely by low Transportation, Gathering and Compression costs Fully-Burdened Cash Costs(2) and Margins FY2018
Margin 44% 43% 46% 53%
Low fully-burdened cash costs and hedged revenues drive rates of return well above cost of capital
(1) Includes per unit Lease Operating Expense; Transportation, Gathering and Compression; and Production, Ad Valorem and Other Fees. See non-GAAP reconciliation table below. (2) Includes Production Cash Costs listed above plus SG&A (excluding non-cash stock compensation), Other Operating Cash Expense, Other Cash Expense (Income), and Interest Expense.
$1.00 $0.46 $0.30 $1.76 $- $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 $2.00 Q4 2018 SWPA Central Marcellus CapEx per Mcfe Plus Fully-Burdened Cash Costs Company-Wide Production Cash Cost
SWPA Central Marcellus Example
Well Capital(1) $8,300,000 EUR (Bcfe/1000’) 2.8 Lateral length 9,500’ Mcfe 26,600,000 Capital Cost/Mcfe ~$0.30
Capital Efficiency Driving Down Total Costs Over Time
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▪ Current DD&A charges ($0.89/Mcfe in Q4 2018) account for legacy
▪ Based on up-to-date per well capital expenditures and expected type curves, capital per Mcfe in SWPA Marcellus is currently $0.31 ▪ Over time, DD&A charges per Mcfe are expected to decline significantly as legacy charges roll off and recent capital efficiency is reflected in company financials Company Fully-Burdened Cash Costs plus SWPA Central Marcellus Capex per Mcfe
(1) Based on Company regional type curve and economic inputs as disclosed March 13, 2018.
230.1 6.4 5.8 5.3 8.3 6.8 0.5 198.0
100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
S/O 3Q17E Repurchased 4Q17E Repurchased 1Q18 Repurchased 2Q18 Repurchased 3Q18 Repurchased 4Q18 to 1/18/19 Comp Shares Issued S/O 10/16/2018
Shares (millions)
Debt Discipline and EBITDAX Growth Drive Available Capacity
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(1) Includes current portion. (2) See non-GAAP reconciliation table below. (3) Calculated by taking an average minority interest percentage of 63.91%.
E&P Midstream
Net Debt Attributable to CNX Shareholders
$ in millions
December 31, 2018
Total
Total Debt (GAAP)(1)(2) $1,921.3 $477.2 $2,398.5 Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents $0.8 $16.4 $17.2 Net Debt (Non-GAAP)(2) $1,920.5 $460.8 $2,381.3 Less: Net Debt Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest(3)
$294.5 Net Debt Attributable to CNX Resources Shareholders $1,920.5 $166.3 $2,086.8
In Q4 2018, CNX redeemed approximately $20 million of 5.875% notes due 2022 At December 31, 2018, the company's credit facility had $612 million of borrowings outstanding and $198 million of letters of credit outstanding, leaving $1,290 million of unused capacity
Q4 2018 Net Debt / TTM Attributable Adjusted EBITDAX
2.25x
Shares Repurchased Since Program Announced ▪ Completed remainder of initial $450 million share repurchase authorization ▪ Have deployed ~$490 million since the end of Q3 2017 retiring almost 14% of shares outstanding ▪ Authorization outstanding for $300 million with no expiration date ▪ Balance sheet capacity, driven by growing EBITDAX, will continue to expand and contract under the 2.5x leverage ceiling
through the strict NAV/share lens and with future opportunities in mind as well
TTM Adjusted EBITDAX Attributable to CNX Shareholders (3)
$929.1
21% 38% 4% 69% 103% 53% 64%
Peer Avg 50%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 CNX Peer Avg
Only E&P of the Peer Group to have Reduced Shares Since 2013
Source: Capital IQ. Notes: Peers include AR, CHK, COG, EQT, GPOR, RRC, and SWN.
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Peer Share Count Percent Change: YE2013-YE2018
Expect continued substantial share count reduction over next three years
Flexibility in Development Mitigates Risk and Grows NAV/Share
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MINIMUM BASE OF ACTIVITY
SUPPORTS Multiyear: CNXM Commitments Service Contracts Hedge Book
INCREMENTAL ACTIVITY
Share Repurchases Equity Price Forward Strip Pricing Supply/Demand Indicators M&A Opportunities Utica Data Set RISK- ADJUSTED RETURN ANALYSIS
DRIVES Through the Cycle: Balance Sheet Capacity NAV/Share Growth
Process occurring on a daily basis
INCREMENTAL DISCRETIONARY CAPITAL
2019 Minimum Guidance Update
CNX Resources is unable to provide a reconciliation of projected Adjusted EBITDAX to projected net income, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items. (1) Expected 5-6% liquids. (2) Pro forma growth comparing 2019E production with 2018 production from assets not sold of 480 Bcfe. (3) Forward pricing date as of 1/15/2019. (4) Includes CNX Midstream LP + GP/IDR distributions of $55 million in FY2019E.
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2019E
Minimum Capital Expenditures
($ millions)
Low High Drilling & Completions $575 $625 Non-D&C $175 $175 Total E&P Capital $750 $800 CNX Midstream LP Capital $250 $280 Total Consolidated Capital $1,000 $1,080 Minimum Production
(Bcfe)
Total Production Volumes (Bcfe)(1) 495 515
Y/Y Growth (2018 pro forma)(2) 3% 7%
Adjusted EBITDAX(3)
($ millions)
E&P Standalone + Distributions(4) $790 $825 Consolidated $945 $985
Capital budget represents a minimum set of D&C activity Throughout the year, the company will evaluate a series
update capital guidance accordingly Those factors include gas prices, CNX equity prices, supply/demand indicators, Utica data set, M&A
$29 $39 $55 $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019E
Distributions Received in Each Year ($ millions)
LP GP+IDR
LP and GP Distributions Help Grow Balance Sheet Capacity
Note: Distributions received in each respective time period correspond to prior quarter due to delay in declaration and record dates.
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LP + GP/IDR Distributions FY2017-FY2019E LP distributions from CNX Midstream have consistently grown 15% year-
As growth continues, LP + GP/IDR distributions make a larger contribution to CNX’s incremental available capital and balance sheet capacity
369.3 424.4 351.5 216.7 101.9 6.7 44.2 58.8 59.9 25.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gas Volumes Hedged (Bcf) NYMEX Only Hedges Exposed to Basis NYMEX + Basis (2)
Natural Gas Hedging and Basis Protection
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(2)
Hedge Volumes and Pricing Q1 2019 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NYMEX Hedges Volumes (Bcf) 83.5 359.2 457.2 389.1 262.9 99.3 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $3.07 $3.05 $2.96 $2.91 $2.96 $2.84 Fixed Price Sales and Index Hedges Volumes (Bcf) 5.2 16.8 11.4 21.2 13.7 27.6 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $2.84 $2.63 $2.43 $2.48 $2.56 $2.10 Total Volumes Hedged (Bcf)(1) 88.7 376.0 468.6 410.3 276.6 126.9 NYMEX + Basis (fully-covered volumes)(2) Volumes (Bcf) 87.1 369.3 424.4 351.5 216.7 101.9 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $2.78 $2.70 $2.50 $2.36 $2.35 $2.23 NYMEX Hedges Exposed to Basis Volumes (Bcf) 1.6 6.7 44.2 58.8 59.9 25.0 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $3.07 $3.05 $2.96 $2.91 $2.97 $2.83 Total Volumes Hedged (Bcf)(1) 88.7 376.0 468.6 410.3 276.6 126.9
(1) Hedge positions as of 1/18/2019. (2) Includes the impact of NYMEX and basis-only hedges as well as physical sales agreements. (3) Assuming midpoint of total dry gas production minimum guidance in 2019E.
Layering in hedges out to 2023 to protect margins on proved developed production and a portion of PUDs Fully-covered hedges represent ~88% of 2019E base gas volumes(3) NYMEX hedges added during Q4: 448.6 Bcf (for 2018 through 2023) Basis hedges added during Q4: 361.2 Bcf (2018 through 2023) De-risked pricing for next three years and meaningful upside potential Protecting from in-basin blowout through regional basis hedges
Q4 and FY2018 Activity
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(1) Measured in lateral feet from perforation to perforation. (2) 50% working interest. Sale of OH Utica JV assets closed in Q3 2018, at which point flowing production from five TILs transferred to buyer.
Q4 2018 FY2018
TD FRAC TIL Average Lateral Length(1) HZ Rigs at Period End TD FRAC TIL SWPA Central Marcellus 19 12 11 8,316 2 61 43 41 Utica
1 WV Shirley-Penns Marcellus
5 5 Utica
Utica 1
6,529 1 4 2 2 OH Dry Utica
4 9,306
8 14 OH Wet(2)
5 Total 20 14 16 4 78 64 68
$1.31 $1.22 $1.26 $1.16 $1.21 $1.09 $1.04 $1.00 $- $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Total Cash Production Costs ($/Mcfe) Transportation, Gathering and Compression Lease Operating Expense Production, Ad Valoerm, and Other Fees
Q4 2018 Operational Results Summary
17 ▪ Marcellus Shale costs were $1.98 per Mcfe in Q4 2018, a decrease of $0.34 from $2.32 per Mcfe vs. Q4 2017, or a 15% decline
compression costs, taxes, and DD&A ▪ Utica Shale costs were $1.43 per Mcfe in Q4 2018, a decrease of $0.16 from $1.59 per Mcfe in Q4 2017, or a 10% improvement
Mcfe in Q4 2018
quarters due to the divestiture of Ohio wet Utica joint venture assets ▪ E&P capital expenditures increased in Q4 2018 to $266 million from $253 million spent in Q3 2018
(1) Average sales prices for 4Q2018, 4Q2017, and 3Q2018 include (loss) / gain on commodity derivative instruments (cash settlements) of ($0.56), $0.19, and $0.03 per Mcf, respectively. (2) Total Production Costs for 4Q2018, 4Q2017, and 3Q2018 include DD&A of $0.89, $1.01, and $0.93 per Mcfe, respectively.
Cash Production Costs(1) 1Q17-4Q18
($/Mcfe)
4Q 2018 4Q 2017 Y/Y Change 4Q 2018 3Q 2018 Q/Q Change Average Sales Price(1) $3.09 $2.80 $0.29 $3.09 $2.92 $0.17 Total Production Costs(2) $1.89 $2.17 ($0.28) $1.89 $1.97 ($0.08) Sales Volumes (Bcfe) 136.1 118.9 17.2 136.1 119.0 17.1 Sales Volumes by Category (Bcfe) Marcellus 87.0 64.0 23.1 87.0 70.6 16.4 Utica 34.0 33.8 0.3 34.0 33.6 0.4 CBM 15.0 16.0 (1.0) 15.0 14.7 0.3 Other 0.1 5.1 (5.0) 0.1 0.1 0.0
(1) See non-GAAP reconciliation table below.
Production Costs by Segment Show Ongoing Improvement
(1) Excludes Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization.
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Marcellus
Utica CBM & Other TOTAL
4Q18 4Q17 Δ 4Q18 4Q17 Δ 4Q18 4Q17 Δ 4Q18 4Q17 Δ Production Volumes (Bcfe) 87.0 64.0 23.0 34.0 33.8 0.2 15.1 21.1 (6.0) 136.1 118.9 17.2 Lease Operating Expense 0.09 0.15 (0.06) 0.12 0.16 (0.04) 0.33 0.46 (0.13) 0.12 0.21 (0.09) Transportation, Gathering and Compression 1.06 1.13 (0.07) 0.23 0.35 (0.12) 0.73 0.90 (0.17) 0.82 0.87 (0.05) Production, Ad Valorem, and Other Fees 0.05 0.08 (0.03) 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.13 0.11 0.02 0.06 0.08 (0.02) Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization 0.78 0.96 (0.18) 1.01 1.03 (0.02) 1.23 1.22 0.01 0.89 1.01 (0.12) Total Production Costs 1.98 2.32 (0.34) 1.43 1.59 (0.16) 2.42 2.69 (0.27) 1.89 2.17 (0.28) Total Production Cash Costs(1) 1.20 1.36 (0.08) 0.42 0.56 (0.14) 1.19 1.47 (0.28) 1.00 1.16 (0.16)
($/Mcfe)
Marcellus LOE and Transportation, Gathering and Compression fees down a combined 10% year-over-year Decline in Utica Production Cash Costs to just $0.42 per Mcfe helping drive down company average CBM Production Cash Costs declined $0.28 or 19% year-
2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Mcf Months
Peer 1 Type Curve Peer 1 Actuals Peer 2 Type Curve Peer 2 Actuals CNX Type Curve CNX Actuals
Dry Gas Marcellus Wells Exceeding Expectations and Peers
Note: Peer data from company filings and DrillingInfo. (1) Solid lines show PA state production data for dry gas wells located in Greene and Washington counties and turned-in-line in 2017 or 2018. Normalized to 9,500’ lateral length. (2) Dotted lines on graph represent company-stated type curves for dry gas wells.
19 Company EUR (Bcf/1000’) Lateral Length Total EUR CNX 2.8 9,500 26.6 Peer 1 2.4 9,500 22.8 Peer 2 2.5 9,500 24.0
SWPA Dry Type Curves vs. Greene & Washington County State Data Actuals: 2017-2018 TILs(1) Recent CNX dry gas wells currently outperforming type curve while peers underperform expectations on similar wells SWPA Dry Type Curves Normalized to 9,500’
1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Cumulative Mcf Normalized to 7000' Days
Aikens 5J Aikens 5M Gaut 4I CPA Dry Utica 3.5 TC Bell Point 6 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Tubing Pressure (Psi) Flow Rate (Mcf/d) Gas Actuals (mcf/d) Gas Forecast Tubing Pressure Actuals Tubing Pressure Forecast Line Pressure Expected to cumulatively produce 9 Bcf at the time it hits line pressure
CPA Deep Utica Bell Point 6 Producing In-Line with Past Successes
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Managed Pressure Expectation – 430 Days Flat Bell Point 6 Performance vs. Existing Mamont Wells
CPA Dry Utica Pads To-Date
Geologic and fracture modelling allows for the
landing zone and completion designs, which drive production repeatability, maximized IRRs, and enhanced capital efficiency Expected to produce at flat rate for approximately 430 days until hitting line pressure in December 2019 Anticipated managed pressure drawdown of ~20 psi/day
Ohio River Waterline to Supply Core SWPA Development
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New water line to connect core SWPA Central development area to reliable and continuous water source ▪ In service expected: Q4 2019 ▪ Expected throughput: 120 Bbl/min ▪ Project IRR: 40%-50% ▪ Connect to Richhill area and supply vast majority of SWPA Central pads ▪ Will support deployment of Evolution all electric frac crew
Ohio River Water Line: Planned Route
~70% of CNX water is transferred through pipeline infrastructure
80% cost savings compared to trucking
Natural gas powered completions instead of diesel saves ~$200,000 per Marcellus lateral or ~$400,000 per Utica lateral Dual pipeline construction results in 13% total cost reduction, increased synergies, and lower project risk
Water Infrastructure Benefits
Water pipelines constructed in tandem with gathering system when appropriate Construction of gas line with water infrastructure prior to completion allows crews to use field gas in place of diesel
Marketing Highlights and Liquids Realizations
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(1) Calculation includes the impact of gas hedging cash settlements.
Marketing Highlights ▪ Directly-marketed ethane volumes were 251,400 barrels in Q4 and, on an equivalent basis, yielded a $0.91 per MMBtu premium over CNX’s residue natural gas alternative. ▪ $0.06 per Mcfe uplift(1) from liquids for total average realization of $3.09 per Mcfe in Q4 2018
2018 2017 Q4 Q4 NYMEX Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) $3.64 $2.93 Average Differential (0.29) (0.76) BTU Conversion (MMBtu/Mcf)* 0.24 0.12 (Loss) Gain on Commodity Derivative Instruments-Cash Settlement (0.56) 0.19 Realized Gas Price per Mcf $3.03 $2.48 * Conversion factor 1.07 1.06
Natural Gas Price Reconciliation Natural Gas Liquids, Oil and Condensate ▪ Q4 2018 liquids sold: 7.5 Bcfe ▪ Total weighted average price of all liquids decreased 19% to $25.61 per Bbl in Q4 2018 from $31.82 per Bbl in Q4 2017 and decreased 13% from $29.35 per Bbl in Q3 2018 ▪ In Q4 2018, liquids comprised approximately 6% of production volumes and 7% of total revenue and other operating income Average Price Realization ($ per Bbl)
2018 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY17
NGLs $27.48 $28.38 $28.08 $24.54 $27.30 $29.16 $15.96 $19.32 $30.48 $24.18 Oil $56.46 $58.32 $63.00 $60.54 $59.34 $44.40 $48.18 $41.94 $45.48 $45.36 Condensate $49.32 $56.82 $58.56 $38.34 $50.58 $33.84 $34.14 $41.34 $46.08 $39.54
CY2019 Hedged Volumes Hedged Forward Forecasted Gain/(Loss) (000 MMBtu) Price Market ($/MMBtu) ($ in 000's) ($/MMBtu) NYMEX 386,088 $2.83 $3.07 ($0.23) ($90,344) Basis: DOM South (DOM) 43,800 ($0.59) ($0.38) ($0.21) ($9,242) TCO Pool (TCO) 52,360 ($0.35) ($0.31) ($0.04) ($2,095) Michcon (NMC) 32,263 ($0.20) ($0.18) ($0.02) ($484) TETCO ELA (TEB) 7,300 ($0.09) ($0.12) $0.03 $212 TETCO WLA (TWB) 7,300 ($0.08) ($0.07) ($0.01) ($102) TETCO M3 (TMT) 14,813 $0.08 $0.53 ($0.45) ($6,651) TETCO M2 (BM2) 110,610 ($0.58) ($0.41) ($0.17) ($18,693) Total Financial Basis Hedges 268,446 ($37,055) Total Projected Realized Loss ($127,399)
2019E Gas Hedging Gain/Loss Projections
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Note: Forward market prices, hedged volumes, and hedge prices are as of 1/18/2019. Anticipated hedging activity is not included in projections. (1) January prices are settled.
(1)
▪ In addition to NYMEX and basis financial hedges, CNX has physical fixed basis sales and physical fixed price sales with customers ▪ CY 2019 physical fixed basis sales and physical fixed price sales: 119.1 Bcf ▪ Physical sales provide additional basis hedge
Q1 2019 Hedged Volumes Hedged Forward Forecasted Gain/(Loss) (000 MMBtu) Price Market ($/MMBtu) ($ in 000's) ($/MMBtu) NYMEX 89,775 $2.86 $3.45 ($0.60) ($53,685) Basis: DOM South (DOM) 10,800 ($0.59) ($0.27) ($0.32) ($3,489) TCO Pool (TCO) 10,800 ($0.33) ($0.23) ($0.10) ($1,026) Michcon (NMC) 6,975 ($0.18) ($0.11) ($0.07) ($453) TETCO ELA (TEB) 1,800 ($0.09) ($0.12) $0.03 $61 TETCO WLA (TWB) 1,800 ($0.08) ($0.09) $0.01 $13 TETCO M3 (TMT) 3,275 $0.89 $2.61 ($1.72) ($5,633) TETCO M2 (BM2) 25,200 ($0.57) ($0.28) ($0.29) ($7,283) Total Financial Basis Hedges 60,650 ($17,810) Total Projected Realized Loss ($71,495)
Q1 2019E Gas Hedging Gain/Loss Projections
25
Note: Forward market prices, hedged volumes, and hedge prices are as of 1/18/2019. Anticipated hedging activity is not included in projections. (1) January prices are settled.
(1)
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
26
Source: Company filings. (1) CNX's unallocated expenses include other expense, gain on sale of assets, loss on debt extinguishment and income taxes. (2) Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest for the three months ended December 31, 2018 is Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling interest of $27,488 plus Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization of $3,189, plus Interest Expense of $3,480, plus Stock-based compensation of $393. Calculated by taking an average noncontrolling interest percentage of 63.91%. Adjusted net income consolidated for the three months ended December 31, 2018 is calculated as GAAP net income of $129,415 plus total pre-tax adjustments from the above table of $41,931, less the associated tax expense of $11,371 equals adjusted net income of $159,975. Adjusted net income consolidated for the three months ended December 31, 2017 is calculated as GAAP net income of $276,643 less total pre-tax adjustments from the above table of $77,612, plus the associated tax benefit of $17,850 equals the adjusted net income of $216,881. Adjusted net income consolidated for the three months ended September 30, 2018 is calculated as GAAP net income of $146,756 less total pre-tax adjustments from the above table of $122,887, plus the associated tax expense of $33,328 equals adjusted net income of $57,197.
Three Months Ended December 31, 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 ($ in thousands) E&P Division Midstream Unallocated(1) Total Company Total Company Net Income (Loss) $48,250 $39,309 $41,856 $129,415 $276,643 Less: Income from Discontinued Operations
Add: Interest Expense 26,471 6,751
40,319 Less: Interest Income 1
(1,198) Add: Income Taxes
(23,713) 71,566 Add: Tax Reform Benefit
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes (EBIT) 74,722 46,060 18,143 138,925 127,661 Add: Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 122,315 7,770 (1) 130,084 122,707 Add: Exploration Expense 2,633
14,093 Earnings/(Loss) Before Interest, Taxes, DD&A, and Exploration (EBITDAX) from Continuing Operations $199,670 $53,830 $18,142 $271,642 $264,461 Adjustments: Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Commodity Derivative Instruments 36,727
(105,879) Loss on Certain Asset Sales
96
(55)
177 (Gain) Loss on Debt Extinguishment
(315) 896 Stock-Based Compensation 4,842 636
3,907 Fair Value Put Option
Settlement Expense
Total Pre-tax Adjustments $41,514 $636 ($219) $41,931 ($77,612) Adjusted EBITDAX from Continuing Operations $241,184 $54,466 $17,923 $313,573 $186,849 Less: Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest(2)
$241,184 $19,916 $17,923 $279,023 $186,849
27
“Attributable Share” Reconciled to Consolidated Results
Note: Tables may not foot due to rounding. (1) CNX's unallocated expenses include other expense, gain on sale of assets, loss on debt extinguishment, and income taxes. (2) MLP cash flow from operations and CNX Gathering calculated using same percentage mix of gross adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA net to the MLP, which in Q4 2018 was 98.8% and 1.2%, respectively. Consolidated cash flow from operations for CNX Midstream for Q4 2018 was $48.9 million.
Cash from Operations and Capital Expenditures
CNX LP ownership 34.09% GP ownership 2.00% Total CNX ownership 36.09% NCI 63.91% 100.00%
Attributable Portion Calculation
Q4 2018 E&P Standalone + CNX Gathering(2) = CNX + MLP(2) = Total Consolidated Cash from Operations $146.7 $0.6 $147.3 $48.3 $195.6 Capital Expenditures $264.3 $1.8 $266.1 $56.2 $322.3
($ in millions)
Attributable to CNX Shareholders
+
Noncontrolling Interest = Consolidated Inside the MLP Outside the MLP 63.91% of CNXM Q4 2018 E&P Standalone + Attributable to CNXM LP & GP + Unallocated(1) + CNX Gathering = Total "Attributable to CNX Shareholders" + Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest = Total Consolidated
$241.2 $12.7 $17.9
$7.2 $279.0 $34.6 $313.6
Total Debt $1,921.3 $172.2
$305.0 $2,398.5
Total Cash $0.8 $5.9
$6.7 $10.5 $17.2
Net Debt $1,920.5 $166.3
$2,086.8
$294.5
$2,381.3 ($ in millions)
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
28
Source: Company filings.
Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31, December 31, ($ in thousands) 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 Net Income $545,546 $61,394 $146,756 $129,415 $883,111 Add: Interest Expense 38,551 38,438 35,723 33,222 145,934 Less: Interest Income (76)
1 (117) Add: Income Taxes 213,694 (31,102) 56,678 (23,713) 215,557 Earnings Before Interest & Taxes (EBIT) from Continuing Operations 797,715 68,730 239,115 138,925 1,244,485 Add: Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 124,667 119,087 119,585 130,084 493,423 Add: Exploration Expense 2,380 3,699 3,321 2,633 12,033 Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, DD&A, and Exploration (EBITDAX) from Continuing Operations $924,762 $191,516 $362,021 $271,642 $1,749,941 Adjustments: Unrealized Gain on Commodity Derivative Instruments (52,078) (8,975) (15,181) 36,727 (39,507) Settlement Expense
(Gain) Loss on Certain Asset Sales (9,487)
96 (140,240) Gain on Previously Held Equity Interest (623,663)
Severance Expense 814 257 513 (55) 1,529 Fair Value Put Option (3,500)
Other Transaction Fees 1,149
Stock Based Compensation 4,909 5,709 5,245 5,478 21,341 Loss (Gain) on Debt Extinguishment 15,635 23,413 15,385 (315) 54,118 Impairment of Other Intangible Assets
Total Pre-tax Adjustments ($666,221) $39,054 ($122,887) $41,931 ($708,123) Adjusted EBITDAX from Continuing Operations $258,541 $230,570 $239,134 $313,573 $1,041,818 Less: Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest(2) 22,388 $26,711 $29,083 $34,550 $112,732 Adjusted EBITDAX Attributable to CNX Resources Shareholders $236,153 $203,859 $210,051 $279,023 $929,086
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
29
Source: Company filings.
Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31, December 31, ($ in thousands) 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 Net Income ($38,965) $169,510 ($26,441) $276,643 $380,747 Less: Loss (Income) from Discontinued Operations ($36,269) ($47,126) ($7,813) $5,500 (85,708) Add: Interest Expense 41,606 40,682 38,836 40,319 161,443 Less: Interest Income (952) (6,077) (858) (1,198) (9,085) Add: Income Taxes (63,194) 57,381 22,988 75,427 92,602 Add: Income Tax Reform
(269,060) Earnings Before Interest & Taxes (EBIT) from Continuing Operations (97,774) 214,370 26,712 127,631 270,939 Add: Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 95,677 91,640 102,012 122,707 412,036 Add: Exploration Expense 9,787 19,715 4,479 14,093 48,074 Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, DD&A, and Exploration (EBITDAX) from Continuing Operations $7,690 $325,725 $133,203 $264,431 $731,049 Adjustments: Unrealized Gain on Commodity Derivative Instruments (24,640) (116,073) (1,512) (105,879) (248,104) Settlement Expense
19,787 Gain on Certain Asset Sales
(30,315)
Severance Expense 230 73 914 177 1,394 Fair Value Put Option
3,500 Lease Expirations
Stock Based Compensation 3,754 4,163 5,159 3,907 16,983 (Gain)/Loss on Debt Extinguishment (822) 36 2,019 896 2,129 Impairment of E&P Properties 137,865
Total Pre-tax Adjustments $116,387 ($221,647) ($23,735) ($77,612) ($206,607) Adjusted EBITDAX from Continuing Operations $124,077 $104,078 $109,468 $186,819 $524,442
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
30
($/Mcfe)
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Average Sales Price - Total Company 2.85 $ 2.47 $ 2.50 $ $ 2.80 3.00 $ 2.87 $ 2.92 $ $ 3.09 Lease Operating Expense 0.23 $ 0.23 $ 0.22 $ 0.21 $ 0.28 $ 0.21 $ 0.14 $ 0.12 $ Transportation, Gathering and Compression 0.99 $ 0.94 $ 0.98 $ 0.87 $ 0.86 $ 0.82 $ 0.84 $ 0.82 $ Production, Ad Valoren, and Other Fees 0.09 $ 0.05 $ 0.06 $ 0.08 $ 0.07 $ 0.06 $ 0.06 $ 0.06 $ Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization 1.01 $ 0.98 $ 1.00 $ 1.01 $ 0.89 $ 0.91 $ 0.93 $ 0.89 $ Total Production Costs 2.32 $ 2.20 $ 2.26 $ 2.17 $ 2.10 $ 2.00 $ 1.97 $ 1.89 $ Less: Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization 1.01 $ 0.98 $ 1.00 $ 1.01 $ 0.89 $ 0.91 $ 0.93 $ 0.89 $ Total Cash Production Costs 1.31 $ 1.22 $ 1.26 $ 1.16 $ 1.21 $ 1.09 $ 1.04 $ 1.00 $ Operating Cash Margin 1.54 $ 1.25 $ 1.24 $ 1.64 $ 1.79 $ 1.78 $ 1.88 $ 2.09 $