Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation March 2018 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company managements current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
REFINING MARKET
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Brent Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl)
4
25 35 45 55 65 75
4.01.2016 13.01.2016 22.01.2016 2.02.2016 11.02.2016 22.02.2016 2.03.2016 11.03.2016 22.03.2016 4.04.2016 13.04.2016 22.04.2016 4.05.2016 13.05.2016 24.05.2016 3.06.2016 14.06.2016 23.06.2016 4.07.2016 13.07.2016 22.07.2016 2.08.2016 11.08.2016 22.08.2016 1.09.2016 12.09.2016 21.09.2016 30.09.2016 11.10.2016 20.10.2016 31.10.2016 9.11.2016 18.11.2016 29.11.2016 8.12.2016 19.12.2016 30.12.2016 11.01.2017 20.01.2017 31.01.2017 9.02.2017 20.02.2017 1.03.2017 10.03.2017 21.03.2017 30.03.2017 10.04.2017 19.04.2017 27.04.2017 9.05.2017 9.05.2017 18.05.2017 29.05.2017 7.06.2017 16.06.2017 27.06.2017 6.07.2017 17.07.2017 26.07.2017 4.08.2017 15.08.2017 24.08.2017 5.09.2017 14.09.2017 25.09.2017 4.10.2017 13.10.2017 24.10.2017 2.11.2017 13.11.2017 22.11.2017 1.12.2017 12.12.2017 21.12.2017 4.01.2018 15.01.2018 24.01.2018 2.02.2018 13.02.2018 22.02.2018 05.03.2018 14.03.2018 23.03.2018CONS
- Increase in number of rigs & production in US
- Concerns about the impact of OPEC & Non
OPEC production cuts
- Inventory Levels
- High crude exports of OPEC
PROS
- OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut
- Political Instabilities in Middle East
- Healthy PMI data in Developing Countries
- Expectation of high global GDP
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source:Platts
26,0 70,7 64,1
As of March 27th
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Refinery Capacity Change
5
- 3000
- 2000
- 1000
1000 2000 3000 4000 China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America Europe 80
- 232
340 196 58 120 460
- 268
105
- 143
76
- 220
156 70
- 57
364
- 130
40 150 417 300 244
- 189
63
- 443
198 510 270
- 352
305
- 140
390 120 400 520
- 546
- 775
- 4,7
302 526 530
- 421
65
- 240
180 84 181 250 160
- 266
- 109
- 145
40 135 340 150 334
- 486
- 543
- 255
52 195 160 640 810
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
450 900 1350 1800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1.080 1.082 1.017 1.022 337 1.685 1.041 1.790 1.678
Thousand Barrels/Day
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source:, Reuters, UEA , Tüpraş, sector reports and news
Capacity Additions
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Middle Distillate Cracks ($/bbl)
6
4 8 12 16 20 Jan Feb *Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
12,1 12,2 12,4 2015 2016 2017 2018
5 10 15 20 Jan Feb *Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
11,9 14,4 13,6
Diesel Jet Fuel
REFINING INDUSTRY
*As of March 27th Source: Platts
7,6 14,8 7,2 10,0 10,4 11,5 15,1 8,0 9,1 6,6 11,4 9,5
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Light Distillate Cracks ($/bbl)
7
6 12 18 24 Jan Feb *Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
10,2 10,6 11,8 2015 2016 2017 2018
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 Jan Feb *Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
- 4,9
- 4,8
- 3,6
Gasoline Naphta
REFINING INDUSTRY
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
Jan Feb *Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
- 21,5 -22,3
- 26,8
LPG
- 2,2
- 4,7
- 16,2
- 20,6
- 17,2
- 15,1
9,8 15,7 11,9 9,7 13,5 18,6 2,4 2,7
- 4,0
- 1,5
- 7,3
- 0,5
*As of March 27th Source: Platts
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Quarterly Product Crack Margins in 2015 - 2017 ($/bbl)
8
Gasoline
10 12 14 16 18 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
13,3 14,3 15,0 10,9
15,2 14,5 10,9 12,8 13 19,4 18,9 13,5
Diesel
6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
10,5 10,7 13,1 12,4
7,9 9,2 8,9 11,2 15,7 15,2 14,6 10,8
2015 2016 2017
Jet Fuel
6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
9,5 9,9 12,4 12,0
7,3 7,7 8 10,2 14,4 11,2 10,5 9,4
Fuel Oil
- 16
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
- 5,3
- 3,9
- 5,8
- 7,8
- 11,5
- 12,6
- 7,8
- 5,7
- 9,1
- 10,2
- 12
- 12,5
(0.01)
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source: Platts
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Price Differentials Ural Differentials
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)
9
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
1
Jan Feb *Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018
- 0,58
- 2,06
- 2,41
- 12
- 9
- 6
- 3
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q4 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4
Iran Heavy Kirkuk Kuwait Basra Heavy Arab Heavy Ural
- 0,35
- 1,30
2012-2017 Differential Range
Brent Brent
REFINING INDUSTRY
*As of March 26th
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Turkish Economy Strengths
10
78 79 80 81 82 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
82 81 81 80 79
Population (mn)
1.4% growth in last 5 yrs
0-40 yrs >65%
3 6 9 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3
9,2 8,8 2,1 4,2 3,0 4,0 2,9 5,0 5,1 11,1
GDP (%)
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
27,7 26,1 25,1 24,2 22,3
Diesel Consumption (mn tons)
8.8% average growth in last 5 yrs
4% annual growth
Car ownership per thousand people
55 110 165 220 2014 2015 2016 2017
127 134 176 213
REFINING INDUSTRY
2002-2014 4.9% 2010-2014 5.4%
Source: EMRA, TSI
67%
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Turkish Consumption (Million tons) 2015-2017
11
Diesel
- 4%
Jet Fuel
2015 2016 2017
1
0,49 0,58 0,60
Fuel Oil*
2015 2016 2017
1 2 2 3
2,30 2,23 2,10
Gasoline
+6.5%
- 3.5%
2015 2016 2017
1 2 3 4 5
4,52 4,40 4,58
2015 2016 2017
10 14 17 21 24
24,17 22,31 20,56
+8.5% +8.3% +2.7% +3.1%
- 15.7%
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source: EMRA *Bunker excluded.
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Turkish Petroleum Market - 12 Months 2017, (Million tons)
12
2017 2016
4 8 12 16
22,32 24,17
Diesel
+2.7%
Jet Fuel
2017 2016
1
0,58 0,49
Fuel Oil*
2017 2016
1 2 2 3
2,23 2,30
Gasoline
+8.3% +3.1%
- 15.7%
2017 2016
1 2 3 4 5
4,40 4,52
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source: EMRA *Bunker excluded.
Diesel consumption in Turkey in 2017 grew significantly driven by infrastructure projects and demand from heavy duty vehicles.
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Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million tons)
13
- 16
- 12
- 8
- 4
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel Jet
0,3 0,7
- 13,2
3,2
- 3,1
0,1 0,3
- 12,3
2,8
- 3,4
0,0 1,0
- 12,0
2,4
- 3,1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
REFINING INDUSTRY
Source: EMRA
Export Import
COMPANY OVERVIEW
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Tüpraş Shareholder Structure
15
%77 %79,98 %40 %49 %100 %20 %51 %3
Energy Investments Inc. (SPV)
Free Float
%82,5 %17,5 Foreign Ownership Domestic Ownership
*Distribution of Domestic/ Foreign Ownership of Tüpraş Shares
Publicly Traded
COMPANY OVERVIEW
*As of December 31th, 2017
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Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network
16
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Turkey Storage Capacity
Tüpraş
: 58%
Opet
: 9%
Other Companies
: 33%
İzmir İzmit
Ankara İstanbul
Kırıkkale Batman
Kirkuk Baku Terminal Refinery
OPET Giresun Terminal OPET Mersin Terminal OPET Antalya Terminal OPET Marmara Terminal 19,392 m3 240,000 m3 721,000 m3 43,130 m3
Crude Pipeline
İzmit
- 11.0 MT Capacity
- NC: 14.5
- Storage Capacity: 3.03 mn m3
İzmir
- 11.0 MT Capacity
- NC: 7.66
- Storage Capacity:2.51 mn m3
- Base oil 400 k tons
Kırıkkale
- 5.0 MT Capacity
- NC: 6.32
- Storage Capacity: 1.41 mn m3
Batman
- 1.1 MT Capacity
- NC: 1.83
- Storage Capacity:0.25 mn m3
Total Capacity : 28.1 mn ton Nelson Complexity : 9.5 Tüpraş Storage Cap. : 7.2 mn m3 OPET Storage Cap. : 1.1 mn m3
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High Complexity (Nelson Complexity of Refinining Companies)
17
5 10 15
İzmit Ref. Valero Reliance Essar Marathon Oil Holly-Frontier Neste BP Tesoro Thai Oil IOCL Tüpraş-2015 Hellenic PKN MOL SHELL Petrom Galp Saras Petrobras Tüpraş Lukoil HPCL CPCL BCP Esso(Thai) S-Oil MRPL SK Energy BPCL
5,8 5,8 5,9 6,5 6,8 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,3 8,0 8,4 8,7 8,8 9,0 9,2 9,2 9,4 9,5 9,6 9,8 9,9 10,4 11,0 11,5 11,6 11,8 12,6 13,0 14,5
Tüpraş After Rup Tüpraş Before Rup İzmit After Rup
14,5 9,5 7,3
COMPANY OVERVIEW
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Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
18
Crude Type 2017
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
79 76 71 63 67 65 7 14 14 11 15 17 10 10 10 13 13 12 1 3 3 2 2 10 6 6 Africa America Europe CIS Middle East
%36 %58,8 %5,3
>34 30> 30 - 40 COMPANY OVERVIEW
In 2017, Tüpraş purchased 25 different types of crude oil from 14 countries, with gravities ranging between 18-47 API.
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Sales By Customer (2017)
19
Military %1 Bitumen %11 Export %18 Other %6 Petkim %1 LPG %4 Jet %5 THY Opet %9 Distributors %45 Other %13 LUKOIL %4 TP %3 BP %15 Shell %15 OPET %25 POAŞ %26
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors Total : 31.5 mn tons Distributors : 14.3 mn tons
COMPANY OVERVIEW
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Competitive Advantages of Tüpraş
20
High Complexity of Tüpraş Best Fit for the Market with high diesel yield Presence in all over Turkey through refineries and terminals Short on Diesel High Economic Growth Import Parity Pricing (Freight advantage of Tüpraş) Crude Oil & Feedstock Cost Advantage Energy Efficient Economies of Scale
Added Value Created by Tüpraş Local Market Dynamics Cost Base
- f Tüpraş
COMPANY OVERVIEW
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OPET- Tüpraş Share 40.0%
21
# 1 Brand Royalty Award 1.560 Stations
Market positions: 17.8% in White product; 23%
Marmara, Aegean, Black Sea & Mediterranean
1.1 Million M3 Storage
2nd Biggest Distribution Company by Volume
๏Jet Fuel Sales
THY Opet- 50/50 joint venture with Turkish Airlines for air transport fuel sales in Turkey
๏Lubricants
Opet Fuchs- 50/50 lubricant joint venture with Fuchs
๏International
Trading London
COMPANY OVERVIEW 400 800 1200 1600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
434 431 435 427 418 410 394 394
1.126 1.073 1.009 966 938 915 885 830
Opet Sunpet
1.22 1.27 1.32 1.35 1.39
1.444 1.504
1.560
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DİTAŞ, Marine Transport -Tüpraş Share 79.98%
22
- One of the biggest Turkish marine transportation companies of crude oil and
petroleum products
- Carries mainly Tüpraş’ crude oil purchases and makes the transfer operations
- f product and semi-products
5 10 15 20 25 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
6 6 5 4 3 3 3
17 9 7 5 6 15 19 Crude Oil Product
13 tugboats 10 mooring boats 2 service boats 1 pilot boat
253,7 mn $
Net Sales
49,6 mn $
- Op. Profit
3 Crude Oil Tanker :479.765 DWT 1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker : 51.532 DWT 7 Product Tanker : 90.534 DWT
COMPANY OVERVIEW
21,9 18 9,6 8,4 11,8 15,2 23,3
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Körfez Ulaştırma A.Ş.- Tüpraş Share 100%
23
Körfez Ulaştırma A.Ş.
- On June 16th, Freight Train Operator Certificate,
- On September 20th, Safety Management Certificate
received
- Operates with 491 cistern wagons and 5 diesel
locomotives
2,5 mn tons/year transport
% 10 Market share Turkey's First Private Railway Operator
COMPANY OVERVIEW
2018 Target
OPERATIONS
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Margin Environment ($/bbl)
25
OPERATIONS
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers’ refining margin due to:
- Refined products deficit characteristic to the
Turkish market
- Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
- Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
- Proximity to major suppliers
- Reduces transport costs
- Implemented cost reduction measures
- Energy efficiency programs
- Capacity to produce higher value added range of
refined products
- Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
- High export capability
- 2,5
2,5 5 7,5 10
J-08 J-08 J-09 J-09 J-10 J-10 J-11 J-11 J-12 J-12 J-13 J-13 J-14 J-14 J-15 J-15 J-16 J-16 J-17 J-17 O 18
Month Annual
3,2 6,4 9,6 12,8 16
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5,3 4,0 4,8 2,0 1,7 8,1 6,0 6,5 3,2 2,5 12,9 11,2 11,9 10,6 9,6 Tüpraş Brüt Marj Tüpraş Net Marj Akdeniz Marj
Med Complex Margin
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Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
26 *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
Capacity Utilization* (%) Quarterly Production (Mil. Tons)
Full Year Q4
30 60 90 120 2014 2015 2016 2017 101,4 100,9 98,1 71,3 Crude Oil Other 30 60 90 120 2014 2015 2016 2017 89,7 107,5 106,3 78,9 4 5 6 7 8 9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
7,1 7,8 7,7 6,3
6,6 6,7 7,2 7,4 5,6 6,9 7,3 7,4
4,5 4,6 5,4 5,5
2014 2015 2016 2017
74,9 102,5 105,3 108,1 81,9 111,6 110,6 94,6
OPERATIONS
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12M Product Yields
27
White Product %76.56 Production 27,93 mn tons API 30,62 White Product %76.27 Production 28,88 mn tons API 30,26
2016
Bitumen %12 Fuel Oil %7 Coke %3 Other %2 ULSD %33 Jet %17 Naphtha %1 Gasoline %20 LPG %4
Black Prod. %22,3
- Mid. Distil.
%50,4 Light Distil. %25,5 Other %1,7
Bitumen %12 Fuel Oil %7 Coke %3 Other %2 ULSD %33 Jet %17 Naphtha %1 Gasoline %20 LPG %4
Black Prod. %22,6
- Mid. Distil.
%50,3 Light Distil. %25,0 Other %2,1
2017
OPERATIONS
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Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)
28
Full Year Domestic Sales of Key Products (mt)
Full Year Total Sales (mt)
Total Sales in Q4 (mt)
10 20 30
2014 2015 2016 2017
3,5 3,4 2,9 1,9
2,2 2,2 2,0 1,8
4,4 4,3 4,5 3,6
11,1 10,6 9,0 6,5
Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen
2 4 6
2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4
1,0 0,9 0,9 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,4 1,0 1,0 1,1 0,9 2,9 2,9 2,6 1,7
Domestic Sales of Key Products in Q4 (mt)
10 20 30 40
2014 2015 2016 2017
25,7 24,8 22,2 16,9
Domestic Sales Export
22,2 28,7 30,3 31,5
2 4 6 8
2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4
6,4 6,4 6,2 4,3 6,1 7,9 7,7 7,3
OPERATIONS
Tüpraş achieved highest total sales of 31.5mt in 2017.
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Investments (mn $)
29
- New Power Plant
- Revamp of Crude Unit
- FCC Modernization
- New Sulphur Units
- Energy Saving Projects
- Optimization of conversion units
- 9.5 Nelson complexity
- High white product yield
- Process more heavier and sour crudes
- Run all refineries with 100% capacity utilization
Ongoing Projects
- Avg. 247 mn$
- Avg. 943 mn$
- Avg. 278 mn$
OPERATIONS
274 355 400 186 177 628 974 1.213 959 344 213 185 250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E
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Capex (mn $) Margins ($/bbl)
2017 Expectations vs 12 Months Results
30
40 45 50 55 60 65 70
J-17 F-17 M-17 A-17 M-17 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17
64,2 62,6 57,4 56 51,6 48,6 46,5 50,4 52,5 51,6 55,1 54,7
Brent Price ($/bbl)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
14'Q1 14'Q2 14'Q3 14'Q4 15'Q1 15'Q2 15'Q3 15'Q4 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3 16'Q4 17'Q1 17'Q2 17'Q3 17'Q4
CPU Average
94,6 114,8 116,5 106,4 110,5 109 102 99,7 111,6 110,3 104 84,1 81,9 80,7 69 68
Capacity Utiliation (%)
Expected Full Capacity Utilization in 2017; achieved 108.1% capacity utilization.
Our expectation was 50-55 $/bbl; 2017 average was 54.3 $/bbl.
2 4 6 8 10 17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4
4,1 6,5 5,4 5,0
6,7 8,9 8,2 8,7
Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin Net Tüpraş refinery margin for 12M was 8,1 $/bbl above target of 7,50 - 8,00 $/bbl. 80 160 240 320 400 2015 2016 2017
117,6
185,4 213,0 344,0
Tüpraş Ditaş Tüpraş core refining business capex guidance for 2017 was 200 Million dollars.
74,9 102,5 105,3 108,1
OPERATIONS
KEY FINANCIALS
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2017 Key Highlights
32
31.5
Million tons of
Sales
101.4
%
Crude Capacity Utilization
30.4
Million tons
Processed
(Total)
4.5
Billion TL
Profit Before Tax
5.9
Billion TL
EBITDA
8.1
$/bbl
Net Refining Margin
KEY FINANCIALS
In Full Year 2017, Tüpraş generated record sales of 31.5 mt and EBITDA of 5.9b TL.
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Financial Highlights (mn $)
33
EBITDA Net Income
- 50
250 550 850 1150 1450 1750
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
123 256 285 91 47 271 283 197 268 175 435 309 405 113 273 171 75 75
235 27 112 231 72 161
1.046
594 938 667 629 817
- 50
250 550 850 1150 1450 1750
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
321 480 422
- 11
89 106 435 294 410 226 315 361 431 237 415
- 27
78 153 427 114 150 150 79 95
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 715 560 338 1.397 1.125
1.614
USD USD
Net Debt- *Debt/Rolling EBITDA
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000
2012-R 2013 2014 H1 2014 9M 2014 2015 H1 2015 9M 2015 2016 H1 2019 9M 2016 2017 Q1 2017 H1 2017 9M 2017
1.729 1.240 1.680 1.555 1.729 1.751 2.391 2.370 2.748 2.577 1.663 1.598 1.869 1.340 551
Net Debt 1 2 3 4 5 6 0,8 2,4 3,5 3,6 4,9 3,3 2,8 1,7 2,0 1,6 1,5 1,1 1,0 0,7 1,1
Net Debt/*R. EBITDA
1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 H1 2016 9M 2016 2017 Q1 2017 H1 2017 9M 2017
0,41 0,49 0,55 0,45 0,22 0,16 0,11 0,04 0,35 0,26 0,24 0,32 0,3
Return of Average Equity
0,41
0,22
Net Debt/Rolling EBITDA was calculated with USD figures
KEY FINANCIALS
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Balance Sheet Analysis
34
0,0 0,6 1,2 1,8 2,4 3,0
Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec.17
2,3 2,2 1,6 2,0 1,7 2,5 1,6 1,6 1,0 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,7 1,6 1,3 1,7
0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2,0
Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec.17
1,36 1,57 1,15 1,09 0,91 0,75 0,91 0,70 0,88 1,07 0,66 0,20 0,09 0,51 0,52 0,71
1 2 3 4
Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec.17
2,22 2,71 2,19 2,62 2,02 1,98 1,69 1,23 1,36 1,59 1,7 1,74 2,46 3,04 3,28 3,1
0,0 0,7 1,4 2,1 2,9 3,6 4,3 5,0
Mar.14 2014 1h 2014 9M Dec 14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Dec.17 1,4 1,3 1,1 0,6 0,6 1,1 1,2 1,0 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,9
2,6 2,1 2,1 3,0 2,9 3,1 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,0 3,1 3,3 3,0 2,9 2,9 2,8
LT Loans ST Loans
Cash & Cash Equivalents (Billion $) Receivables (Billion $) Payables (Billion $) Financial Loans (Billion $)
2,22 1,36 2,3 4,0
3,7 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,6 3,6 3,4 3,9 4,0 4,2 3,4 3,6 3,2 3,4 KEY FINANCIALS
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Tüpraş Balance Sheet
35
Million USD 31.12.2017 31.12.2016 Difference % Difference Current Assets 5.399 3.884 1.516 39
Cash & C. Equivalents 2.334 1.719 614 36 Receivables 1.355 911 444 49 Derivatives 92 10 82 832 Inventories 1.403 1.025 377 37 Pre-paid expenses 17 28
- 11
- 41
Other Current Assets 199 190 9 5
Long Term Assets 4.718 4.987
- 269
- 5
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 303 264 39 15
Fixed Assets 3.263 3.338
- 75
- 2
Derivatives 27 105
- 78
- 75
Pre-paid expenses 26 68
- 41
- 61
Deferred Tax 813 917
- 104
- 11
Other Long Term Assets 286 296
- 11
- 4
Total Assets 10.118 8.871 1.247 14 Short Term Liabilities 4.686 3.597 1.089 30
Financial Loans 1.398 556 842 151 Payables 2.219 2.020 199 10 Derivatives 47 8 39 461 Deferred Incomes 5 4 1 24 Provisions 24 18 5 29 Other ST Liabilities 993 990 3
Long Term Liabilities 2.654 2.953
- 299
- 10
Financial Loans 2.592 2.892
- 300
- 10
Payables & Provisions 59 59 1 Derivatives 1 1 76 Other LT Liabilities 1 2
- 8
Equity 2.750 2.298 452 20 Minority Interests 28 22 5 24
Total Liabilities 10.118 8.871 1.247 14
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Dividend
36
In principle; as far as the related regulations, investment needs and financial situation allow, the entire amount of the “net distributable profit for the period”, calculated within the frame of the Capital Markets Regulations, is distributed in cash – taking into consideration the market expectations, long term company strategies, investment and financing policies, profitability and cash position – as long as it is covered from the existing resources in our legal records.
KEY FINANCIALS
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive
1000 2000 3000 4000
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Earnings Per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout (TL)
3.406 1.557 1.628 396 964 985 746 626 579
13,6 6,2 6,5 1,58 3,85 3,933 2,98 2,5 2,31 15,22 7,16 10,18 4,78 5,83 4,96 2,94 3,24 1,73
579 626 746 985 964 396 1.628 1.557 3.406
One of the highest dividend yield in BIST.
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Creating Competitive & Sustainable Shareholder Value
37
%38 %62 Buy Hold
Foreign Currency Long Term Tüpraş BBB-(IG) Ba1 (Sta.) Turkey BB+ (stable) Ba2 (Sta.) BB Koç Holding Ba1 (Sta.) BBB-
Analyst Recommendations
Board Stakeholders Transparency Shareholders Overall 25 50 75 100
94,7 95,5 94,0 98,6 92,9
Tüpraş has one of the highest Corporate Governance Ratings
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Financial Policy
38
Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, interest rate, commodity and currency exposure
Threshold and limits
- Net financial debt/EBITDA
- Net foreign currency position/shareholders' equity
- Inventory and crack margin exposure
- Current ratio
- The fixed/floating profile of financial debt
- Liquidity: share of long term debt
- Counterparty risk limits
Counterparty Risk Policy
- Credit rating and strong capital base
- Cap on the maximum deposit allocated to a single bank
- Threshold for deposits subject to banks shareholders’ equity
Deposit is kept, within certain limits, by banks that comply with the criteria determined in our policy
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Inventory & Crack Margin Hedge
39
Inventory Hedging Policy
Operational Hedge:
- Maintaining minimum amount of stock required for the refining activities
- Forward Pricing: Purchasing crude oil through forward-priced contracts
Financial Hedge: Proxy Hedging (both crude oil and refined product inventories)
- Expected inventory exposure for the year end is hedged
- Derivative transactions: Asian swap, Zero Cost Collar
- Hedging ratio increasing throughout the year
Margin Hedging Policy
- Crack margins: Gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel Cracks
- Derivative transactions: Asian Swaps
- Hedging Parameters: Budget figures, historical average prices of the cracks + standard
deviations, market expectations
- Maximum hedge ratio: 50%,
- Tenor: up to next 4 quarters
KEY FINANCIALS
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2017)
40
Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,254 mn $
Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities
Cash
1.996
Receivables &
- ther assets
35
Stock
1,341
Forward & CFH
2,410
Payables
1,935
ST Financial
1.199
- RUP : 304
- Eurobond : 700
- Other : 195
LT Financial
2,510
- RUP Loans : 964
- Eurobond 700
- Other Credits : 846
139 mn $
Million $
- A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and
refined product purchases are denominated in US
- Dollars. In addition, the Group finances its capital
expenditures mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars.
- Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of
the impact of volatility in exchange rates through natural hedges: crude oil and refined product inventories are US Dollar denominated assets.
- Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans
designated as hedging instruments of highly probable export revenues.
- As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group
companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange positions within certain limits.
KEY FINANCIALS
OUTLOOK
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
2018 Refinery Maintenance Schedule & Capacity Utilization
42
Even after the 2018 maintenance schedule, we aim to exceed our full total capacity utilization target and reach 104.6%.
Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Reason
İzmir Plt 7000 Crude Oil Unit Q4 ’17- Q1’ 18 11-13 in 2018 Revamp Hydrocracker, DHP & Platformer Q1 5-6 Periodic Maintenance Plt 4000 FCC Q2 5-6 İzmit Plt 2 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q4 5-6 Periodic Maintenance Plt 5 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q2 5-6 Plt 25 Crude Oil & Vacuum Unit Q4 5-6 Plt 47 Hydrocracker Complex Q2 4-5 Plt 63 CCR & DHP Q4 5-6 Kırıkkale All Units Q1 6-7 Battery Shutdown Batman
- Plt. 100/Crude Oil & Vacuum
Q1 4-5 Periodic Maintenance
2018 Crude Capacity Utilization 26.8 mn tons (95.4%) 2018 Total Capacity Utilization 29.4 mn tons (104.6%)
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
2018 Expectations
43
The average Brent crude oil price in 2018 is expected to be 55-60 dollars per barrel.
We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4.75 – 5.00 dollars per barrel band in 2018. Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 7,50 - 8,00 dollars per barrel
- Full Total Capacity Utilization using imported semi-products such as ASRFO and HVGO
- Production: approximately 28.3 million tons
- Total sales: 31.0 million tons
Refining investments is expected to be around 250 Million dollars.
Brent Price Estimation
Med Complex Margin
Tüpraş Net Margin Operations Investment
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Competition # 1 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery)
44
2019 mn ton Production Turkish Demand Balance Tüpraş Star Total LPG 1,2 0,3 1,5 4,2
- 2,8
Petchem Feeds 0,3 2,6 2,9 Gasoline 5,8 5,8 2,4 3,4 Jet Fuel 5,4 1,6 7,0 5,0 2,0 Diesel 10,2 4,8 15 26,1
- 11,1
Coke 0,8 0,7 1,5 4,6
- 3,1
Fuel Oil 1,5 1,5 1,3 0,2 Bitumen 3,1 3,1 3,3
- 0,2
Diesel 4.800 Jet Fuel 1.600 Sulphur 158 Petrocoke 698 Fuels Petrochemical Feedstock LPG 260 Naptha 1.600 Mixed xylene 460 Reformate 524
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
- Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13 percent stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.
- Goldman Sachs has the right to resell 10 percent of its stakes to Socar, and the
remaining 3 percent to ‘Sermaye Investments Limited’ owned by SOCAR within 6 year at the same price.
- Credit : 3.3 Billion $
- Equity : 2.4 Billion $
- Total Investment : 5.7 Billion $
- 3,3 billion dollar credit agreement. First 4 year
grace period total 15-18 year term.
- Project finance is supplied to company (US$
1.5 billion)
- It is planned to be commissioned in 2018.
STAR Refinery (Total Cap. 10 mn ton)
Star Refinery Production Numbers (K Ton)
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Competition # 2 (Regional Competition)
45
Ukraine Russia Georgia Turkey Bulgaria Romania Moldova Egypt Libya Tunisia Algeria Morocco Portugal Spain France Italy Israel Syria Turkey Greece Albania Croatia
- Tüpraş is competing with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets.
- Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia.
Mediterranean Black Sea
54 Refineries 7.8mn bpd 17 Refineries 1.8mn bpd
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
IMO, at the meeting held in October 2016, lowered the sulphur emission cap from marine bunkers from 3.5% to 0.5% (5000ppm): effective from 1 January 2020.
Marine Bunker Specification Changes and Its Effects
46
Requirements of spec change can be achieved through;
- Use of lower sulphur blend stocks like ULSD (Diesel)
- Low Sulfur Fuel Oil production with light crudes
- Sulphur Fuel Reduction Systems (Scrubber)
- LNG
- 80% of global trade is done via marine
transportation.
- 50.000 vessels are in operation.
Bunker fuels account for;
- ~5% of global oil demand
- 40% of oil related sulphur emissions.
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
Ship Owners Intention Survey
%2 %5 %19 %74
Buy Low Sulphur Fuel Install Scrubber switch to LNG Other
Source: IEA, Oil Sector Report, 20172016 2020 2022
1,8 2,1
HS Fuel Oil Diesel
LS FO
HS FO Scrubbed
LS Fuel Gap LS Fuel Gap
Mn b/d
Source: UBS, 2017Appendix
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Q4 Product Yields
48
White Products %77.57 Production 7,3 mn tons API 30,1 White Products %73.74 Production 6,3 mn tons API 30,0
2016
Bitumen %13 Fuel Oil %5 Coke %3 Other %1 ULSD %39 Jet %14 Naphtha %1 Gasoline %20 LPG %3
Black Prod. %21,2
- Mid. Distil.
%52,8 Light Distil. %24,8 Other %1,2
Bitumen %16 Fuel Oil %6 Coke %3 Other %3 ULSD %31 Jet %16 Naphtha %1 Gasoline %21 LPG %3
Black Prod. %25,2
- Mid. Distil.
%47,0 Light Distil. %24,9 Other %2,9
2017
APPENDIX
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
12M Product Yields
49
White Product %76.56 Production 27,93 mn tons API 30,62 White Product %76.27 Production 28,88 mn tons API 30,26
2016
Bitumen %12 Fuel Oil %7 Coke %3 Other %2 ULSD %33 Jet %17 Naphtha %1 Gasoline %20 LPG %4
Black Prod. %22,3
- Mid. Distil.
%50,4 Light Distil. %25,5 Other %1,7
Bitumen %12 Fuel Oil %7 Coke %3 Other %2 ULSD %33 Jet %17 Naphtha %1 Gasoline %20 LPG %4
Black Prod. %22,6
- Mid. Distil.
%50,3 Light Distil. %25,0 Other %2,1
2017
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Income Statement (In USD)
50
Million USD FY 2016 FY 2017 % Diff. 4Q 2016 4Q 2017 % Diff. Net Sales 11.547 14.801 28 3.332 3.855 16 Gross Profit 1.209 1.705 41 510 366
- 28
Operating Expenses
- 330
- 316
4
- 91
- 95
- 5
Income/Loss from other operations
- 98
- 57
42
- 106
- 73
31 Operating Profit 781 1.333 71 314 198
- 37
Income/Loss from equity investment 53 64 22 8 16 93 Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 834 1.397 68 322 214
- 34
Net Financial Income /Expense
- 190
- 170
11
- 35
- 21
40 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 644 1.227 91 287 192
- 33
Net Profit 594 1.046 76 256 123
- 52
* EBITDA (mn.$) 1.125 1.614 43 480 321
- 33
* EBITDA (mn.$) CCS 972 1.453 50 418 235
- 44
For P&L, USD/TL rates: 2017 12M 3,6450, 2016 12M 3,0186 *According to international standards, in our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included. APPENDIX
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in 12M (FOB Italy Prices)
51
Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl 2017 2016 2016 Yield 2017 2016 LPG 435,2 308,3 %3,3
- 15,5
- 16,2
Gasoline 549,0 462,3 %19,5 13,4 13,3 Naptha 467,2 366,6 %1,0
- 1,5
- 2,3
Jet Fuel 512,7 408,9 %15,4 10,9 8,3 Diesel 491,0 394,6 %30,4 11,7 9,3 Diesel 1000 478,0 384,9 %1,2 9,9 8,0 Fuel Oil 1% 315,0 222,3 %0,9
- 5,7
- 9,4
Fuel Oil 3,5% 298,5 205,2 %5,7
- 8,2
- 12,1
Diğer 276,3 200,3 %16,8
- 8,5
- 10,5
94,4 Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 5,5 3,7 Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 54,3 43,7 Margin Differences, $/bbl +1,86 Total Processed, mn bbl 213.29 Total Effect, mn $ 383.6 Total Effect, mn TL 1.398,1
Higher product cracks in 2017 over 2016 indicates a +1.9 $/bbl margin difference, yielding a 1.4 billion TL contribution to Tüpraş Financials.
APPENDIX
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
High Complexity (Resid Upgrading Units Production-(Thousand Tons)
52
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid
1,214
- Atm. Straight
Run Fuel Oil
3,036
Total Feed 4,496
Diesel 2.883 Gasoline 522 LPG 69 PetroCoke 690 Sulphur 86
Total Production
4,250
Raw Materials Products
(kton)
APPENDIX
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
High Complexity (Tüpraş Total Production Change After RUP)
53
Gasoline&Naptha Jet Fuel Diesel Others Fuel Oil Coke Bitumen
Before RUP After RUP
RUP production + 4 Refineries
Capacities increase 9,1 mn tons, instead of 4,2 mn ton
APPENDIX
mn tons
2,9 0,7
0,35
2,7
%-87 %19
1,4
0,3
5,6 5,5 3,6 0,9
%25
4,7 1,7
%35
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Flexibility & Reliability; Multiple routes to maksimum capacity
54
CRUDE OIL
97000 8
VACUUM
42320 8
NAPHTHA SPLITTER
8
LPG MEROX
6
ISOMERISATION
6400 3
UNIFINER REFORMER
16900 7
LPG GASOLINE NAPHTHA JET FUELOİL DIESEL LUBE OIL VACUUM
MHC 2
22.0% 33.9% 0.5% 19.9% Number
- f units
Key units Capacity (m3/d) KERO/DIES EL (HDS)
37300 10
3.5% FCC
2 4700 18200 4
COKER
8200 1
LPG MEROX
Yields (%) 16.5%
BITUMEN & FUEL OİL
OTHER 3.8%
More than one distillation and production units VACUMM DİST. NAFTA SPLITTER
UNIFINER REFORMER KERO / DIESEL HDS
HYDROC. FCC COKER
ISOMER.
Benzen Saturation FCC Benzin HDS Lube Oil Bitumen
CRUDE OIL
Flow Diagram
HYDROCRACKER
- Increased conversion
capacity
- Strong integration
among refineries
APPENDIX
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Competition (European Pump Price Comparison)
55
APPENDIX
200 400 600 800
TR Spa. UK Ger Eu19 Fra. Gre. Ita.
473 473 439 419 408 413 317 322 72 62 52 26 51 190 252 191 244 174 203 267 180
Pump No Tax
- Distr. Marg.
Tax
553 584 634 642 663 691 725 735
175 350 525 700 TR Spa. Ger. EU19 Fra. Gre. UK Ita. 411 416 317 394 337 308 266 255 64 26 58 60 55 201 218 303 199 259 184 274 186 Pump No Tax
- Distr. Marg.
Tax
496 540 552 596 620 650 660 675
Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel 10 (Krş / Lt)
Not: Prices valid on 12 Feb 2018-Turkey Gasoline pirice as of 14th of February 2018Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios
56
2 4 6 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0,9 2,0 1,3 0,8 1,4 2,6 1,8 3,2 3,6 3,1 3,4 2,8 2,4 1,7 1,9 1,7 1,9 3,5 3,4 5,0 4,8 6,1 6,9 7,1 7,1
Tüpraş Contractor
Loss Time Severity Frequency Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tüpraş 92 44 40 53 65 61 59 719 101 Contractor 116 101 81 118 424 17 378 51 551 Total 105 73 57 83 290 26 308 315 354
loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours
APPENDIX
Incident Frequency
Including contractors
3,6 2,5 1,7 2,2 1,5 1,1 1,6 2,5 1,9 Total
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Energy Saving Projects (mn$)
57
125 250 375 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
424 416 407 398 376 345 240 135 73 42
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Tüpraş Energy consumption (TJ) 76.653 65.265 67.010 70.792 71.086 69.147 67.034 90.796 102.156 105.851 785.790 Energy-saving(TJ) 978 10.891 3.155 3.053 5.255 2.841 1.772 1.031 1.054 830 30860 Energy Efficiency Project 36 52 65 92 97 40 22 21 18 15 458 Savings (mn $) 42 32 62 105 106 31 22 10 9 5 424
APPENDIX
Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr
Koç Holding
58
APPENDIX
Notes : Data as of YE17, 2017 GDP reflects the projection of Turkish government’s Medium Term Program (1) 2017 Report (2) In TL terms between
Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company
Turkey’s largest industrial and services group in terms of revenues, exports, employees, taxes paid and market caputalization
Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company
- The only Turkish company in Fortune 500
1
- 16% CARG in consolidated profit
2 in the last five years
Pioneer in its Sectors
Leading positions with clear competitive advantages in sectors with long-term growth potential such as energy, automotive, consumer durables and finance
Combined Revenues / GDP Total Exports / Turkey’s Exports Total MCap on Borsa İstanbul
7% 10% 19%
Updated information can be found in the Investor Relations section of the company website www.tupras.com.tr