Disclaimer Disclaimer The information contained in this - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Disclaimer Disclaimer The information contained in this - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to I nvestors Arranged by Citibank, N.A . Hongkong: 1-2 March 2007 Singapore: 5-6 March 2007 Disclaimer Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal
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Disclaimer Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.
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Corporate Vision, Mission and Value Corporate Vision, Mission and Value
TOP seeks to be one of the leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical companies in the region recognized for our sustainable growth, optimum stakeholder value, and commitment to environmental and social well-being.
Vision
- To be PTT’s flagship refinery through optimized
management of the group’s refining portfolio
- To expand facilities to better meet domestic demand
growth
- To enhance the competitive advantage of our power
generation operations to further solidify the core refining business
- To create a high-performance organization that
promotes teamwork, innovation and trust
Mission
P = Professionalism O = Ownership & Commitment S = Social Responsibility I = Integrity T = Teamwork and Collaboration I = Initiative V = Vision Focus E = Excellent Striving
Value
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Contents Contents
- Company Overview
- Business Outlook
- Progress of Investment Projects
- Consolidated Financial Performance
5
PTT Group 80%
Thai Lube Base (TLB)
9% 55% SPP program 3-on-1 Combined cycle Electricity 118 MW Steam 168 T/hr Utility Supply to Group IPP program 2-on-1 Gas-fired, Combined cycle Electricity 700 MW
Related Business & Earnings Stability
Thai Paraxylene (TPX)
Capacity: Current: 348 KTA (PX) 72 KTA (MX) Q4/07: 900 KTA (Total) 489 KTA (PX) 177 KTA (Bz) 144 KTA (To) 90 KTA (MX) Capacity: Lube Base oil: 270 KTA A fleet of 5 oil & petrochemical vessels with int’l classifications Total capacity: approx 30,000 DWT Multi-product Pipeline Capacity: 26,000
- mn. Litres/Y.
PTT 20% TOP 24% 100% 56% 100% 100%
Capacity: Current: 225 Kbd
Refinery Petrochem/ Lube Base Oil Power/ Renewable Energy Transportation / Others
PTT 26% J-Power 19%
Q4/07: 275 kbd
20%
Thaioil (TOP) Independent Power (Thailand) (IPT) Thaioil Power (TP) Thaioil Marine (TM) Thappline PTT ICT Solutions (PTT ICT)
30%
Maesod Clean Energy
Mitr Phol Group 35% Padaeng 35% Sugar Cane Based Ethanol
Q1/09: 0.1 mn. L/D Core Refining Operations Value Enhancement Product Marketing / IT Support
PTT 31% Others 60%
Plat 1.8 MTA
TOP’s Group Structure TOP TOP’ ’s s Group Structure Group Structure
6
TOP – One of Region’s Leading Refineries TOP TOP – – One of Region One of Region’ ’s Leading Refineries s Leading Refineries
Gulf of Thailand
Total Refining Capacity = 1,042 kbd
ESSO (170 kbd) IRPC (150+65 kbd) BCP (120 kbd) SPRC (150 kbd) RRC (145 kbd)
TOP (225 kbd) (275 kbd) PTT’s Flagship Refinery
Bangkok
RPC (17 kbd)
Nationally:
- Largest, most complex & highly integrated.
- The flagship refinery of the PTT group.
- Advantageous site location (120 km east of Bangkok) –
Close to the market.
- Highly capable and experienced management / staff.
Source: PTIT Focus Special Annual Report 2004, except for capacity figure for RRC (based on RRC Offering Memorandum)
Regionally:
- One of the most complex in the region with TCU, HCU,
FCCU, CCR and ISOM.
- High operational flexibility from multiple-unit
configuration.
- High complexity ratios (Oil & Gas Journal / Nelson
Index – 8.6).
- Top-ranked performance according to Shell’s and
Solomon’s benchmarking exercise:
- High efficiency / utilization
- Low cash operating cost
Well diversified earnings through significantly increase in subsidiaries’ contributions.
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2006 Key Highlights 2006 Key Highlights
- Successfully increased refining capacity by 5 kbd
to 225 kbd from synergy project with TLB.
- Maintained high utilization of Refinery, TPX and
maximized lube base production (after 1st major turnaround and by co-processing Hydrocracker bottom).
- Maintained high integrated Refinery / TPX / TLB
margin through joint production planning, cooperation within PTT group, products diversification and margin improvement program:-
- Collaborated with PTT / RRC / IRPC for crude
sourcing and delivery, thereby reduced freight costs,
- Maximized jet production / export at the
expense of diesel during flooding in Thailand,
- Increased overall margin ~ US$ 0.50/bbl through
Hydrocarbon Management Review (HMR) and
- ther activities.
- Repaired & reinstalled transformer 2 months ahead
- f
plan and received satisfactory insurance compensation (BI of Bt. 328 mn. & PD of Bt. 66 mn.).
Operation & Commercial Investment
- All approved major projects progressed as planned.
- Engaged PMC for 500,000 L/D ethanol plant
(cassava-based) with an aim to complete project specification and detailed cost estimate by Q2/07.
- Signed JV agreement with PDI and Mitr Phol to
study & develop 100,000 L/D ethanol plant (based
- n sugar cane) at Maesod, Tak to diversify
feedstock sources.
Finance
- Paid annual dividend of Bt 3.50/share (40% payout
- vs. min. stated 25%) & 1st interim dividend of Bt.
1.50/share.
- Diversified sources of funds by issuing inaugural
THB bond of Bt. 5,500 mn. (AA- Fitch’s) & Cross Currency Swap to US$.
- Successfully negotiated to reduce cost of existing
domestic syndicated loans by ~ 1.375% or Bt. 72 mn./yr.
- Prepaid, repaid & refinanced loans, thus lowering
interests by ~ Bt. 134 mn. in 2006.
8
TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Integrated Margin s Integrated Margin
4.65 10.62 2.70 1.51 6.62 4.96 1.82 1.57 2.86 2.19 2.09 0.24 0.64 1.53 0.81 0.87 0.38 0.54
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 TOP Acct GRM TPX TLB
7.00 12.56 4.57 7.69
Integrated Margin (US$/bbl)
6.37
- 8%
- TOP’s integrated refinery & petrochem
- perations lead to increased and more
stable margins.
- Group’s
integrated margin stood at $7.69/bbl, 8% reduction vs. 25% drop of GRM.
8.39
PX – ULG 95
Plat
+42%
402 398 732 575 371 527
403 399 733 576
Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/05 FY/06 (US$/T)
LB - HSFO
480 525 623 687 579 331
481 526 624 688
Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/05 FY/06
+75%
(US$/T)
L/R
Crude
GRM Oil Products
- 2
5 %
(US$/bbl)
2.70 1.51 6.62 4.96 10.62 4.65
- Mrk. Mrg.
Stock G/(L)
Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/05 FY/06
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Financial Highlights Financial Highlights
EBITDA & Net Profit from Operation by Quarters Net Profit from Operation by Sectors – FY/05 & FY/06
- Bt. 16,647 mn.
- Bt. 15,948 mn.
+4%
Refinery 61% PX 23% LB 10% Power 6%
FY/05
PX 33% Refinery 43% LB 13%
FY/06
Power 11%
6,338 5,351 3,691 4,086 3,531 6,878 9,737 5,993 6,254 3,843 4,803 3,438 2,521 1,840 10,232 8,126
EBITDA 05 EBITDA 06 NP fr. Oper. 05 NP fr. Oper. 06
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 (Bt. mn.) 29,003 15,948 25,014 16,647
*Exclude other activities (Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment)
+4% YoY
- 14%YoY
- Q4/06 - While GRM dropped significantly, subsidiaries (TPX, TLB & IPT) contributed strongly
to Group’s bottom line, Net Profit from Operation in Q4/06 was Bt. 1,840 mn.
- FY/06- Group's Net Profit from Operation increased marginally (by 4% YoY), thanks to
strong GRM in Q2/06 and robust PX & LB margins, especially in 2H/06.
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Contents Contents
- Company Overview
- Business Outlook
- Progress of Investment Projects
- Consolidated Financial Performance
11
Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook
China1) 6,791 41 6 386 666 550 Japan 4,445
- 56
- India
2,771 21 64 751 256 Taiwan 1 ,265 28
- Thailand
1 ,042
- 1
1 5
- Pakistan
282
- 1
7
- Vietnam
5
- 1
21 Others 6,966
- 88
- 25
Total 23,567 654 555 1 ,588 952 2009-10F Kbd Jul'06 Existing 2006F 2007F 2008F
1)Include Monkolia 20 kbd in 2007 2)The Company
Regional Oil Demand Asia Pacific Refining Capacity Additions
China 6,492 4.3% 6,903 8,634 5.8% Japan 5,102 0.5% 5,073 5,018 (0.3%) India 2,333 1.3% 2,524 2,858 +4.1% South Korea 2,237 0.9% 2,212 2,314 +1.1% Thailand 970 2.3% 1,009 1,112 +2.5% Singapore 816 5.0% 866 1,105 +6.3% Others 5,207 1.1% 5,102 5,866 +3.6% Total Demand 23,157 2.0% 23,689 26,907 +3.2% Total Supply 22,964 0.8% 24,221 27,316 +3.1% ME Sur/Def 1,305 1,502 1,786 2006F 2010F % Annual Growth (2006-10F) Kbd 2005A % Growth
2)
26,907 25,293 23,157 23,689 24,512 26,364 27,316 22,964 24,221 24,826
2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2010F Total Demand Total Supply Kbd
Source: FACTS, Fall 2006
Asia-Pacific Demand/Supply Balance
90%
- Delay of a few refinery projects in China
and latest regional oil demand forecast support tight supply up to 2010.
- New refineries and expansions in M/E are
needed to fulfill the gap, especially LPG, Naphtha and Fuel Oil.
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Demand PX Total Capacity Operating Rate 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 % Op. Rate
Domestic PX Demand & Supply Global Total PX Supply / Demand & Operating Rate
PX Business Outlook PX Business Outlook
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
- Mn. T.
10 11 World Demand Growth Americas Europe Africa/Mideast Asia/Pacific Source: CMAI & Company
400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
ATC Exxon TPX Demand KTA 11
- Delay of a few Chinese & M/E PX projects
(~2.4 mn. T/Y) from 2009 to 2010 will help extend high operating rate period till end 2009.
Global PX Supply & Demand Growth
- Mn. T.
- With new Indorama’s and expansion of Siam
Mitsui’s PTA plants in 2006, Thailand remains net importer of PX till Q3/08 when new ATC II project will be completed.
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LB Business Outlook LB Business Outlook
Regional Base Oil Supply & Demand
6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Supply Demand
KTA
- Delay in new capacity coming on-stream
is the main reason for limited supply.
- Shortage of base oil is expected to
continue in 2007 but could turn into balance after 2008 when new capacity additions commence operations.
Global Base Oil Market
2000
2005
2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Rest of the world
- W. Europe
Asia Pacific
- N. America
Demand by Region Demand by Group Group 3 Group 2 Group 1
- Global base oil demand is expected to
grow by 2% CAGR until 2015. However, demand for Group I is forecasted to decline by 1% CAGR.
- Although demand for Group I declined,
regional base oil supply of Group I is still tight due to permanent shutdown of some base oil plants in Australia & Philippines.
Source: Kline, Shell Lubricants
90%
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Contents Contents
- Company Overview
- Business Outlook
- Progress of Investment Projects
- Consolidated Financial Performance
15
TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Major CAPEX Programs s Major CAPEX Programs
Projects (US$ mn.) COD 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total
CDU-3 Revamp New Gas Turbine SBM Expansion TPX Expansion Total Q4/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07
34 59 125 9 22 12 78 72 6 66 210 49 225 419 693
On-going
218 43 150 282
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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects
Projects Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 CDU-3 Revamp Size : + 50 kbd (CDU Capacity) Cost : US$ 218 mn. (US$ 4,360/bbl) IRR : ~ 28% based on US$ 4.5/bbl GRM EPCM : Foster Wheeler
- Exp. C.O.D.: Q4/07
Overall Work Progress: 58%
- Installation of new KMT unit scheduled
to be completed in Mar’07.
- Substation, cooling tower and new
crude furnace construction work is in progress. Prior to commissioning of the expansion, CDU-3 will be shutdown for 2 months in Q4/07 for major turnaround & tie-in with the new facilities.
New Crude Furnace F- 2102 Foundation New Scot Unit Foundation Unit 2350 New KMT
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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects
Projects Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 New Gas Turbine Size : 38 MW Cost : US$ 43 mn. EPC : CTCI PMC : Foster Wheeler
- Exp. C.O.D.: Q2/07
Overall Work Progress: 95%
- Gas Turbine, Generator and Heat
Recovery Steam Generator installed.
- Construction work is in progress.
Auxiliary / Local Control Room Gas Turbine and Generator Package Transformer
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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects
Projects Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 SBM Expansion Size : 52” diameter * 14.5 km long pipeline (to receive crude fr. VLCC @ 2 mn. bbl) Cost : US$ 150 mn. EPC : SAIPEM PMC : Bechtel
- Exp. C.O.D. : Q3/07
Overall Work Progress: 49%
- Major equipment and 52” concrete
coated steel pipe are scheduled to deliver to site as planned.
- On-shore construction work started in
Jan’07.
- Subsea pipe laying will be started in
Apr’07.
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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects
Projects Details Work Progress as of End-Jan’07 TPX Expansion Size : +480 KTA Aromatics (add.)
+PX 141 KTA +MX 18 KTA +BZ 177 KTA +Tol 144 KTA
Cost : US$ 282 mn. EPC : Bechtel PMC : Foster Wheeler
- Exp. C.O.D.: Q4/07
Overall Work Progress: 42%
- Foundation work for new units
completed.
- Erection of storage tanks started in
Dec’06.
- Piping installation outside battery limit is
in progress. Prior to commissioning of the expansion, TPX will be shutdown for 2 months in Q4/07 for major turnaround & tie-in with the new facilities.
H-1601/B- 4007 Demolition Work Completed Big Mat. Foundation in the New Process Area Foundation work inside TATORAY
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TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Major CAPEX Programs s Major CAPEX Programs
Projects (US$ mn.) COD 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total
Specialties 2009 Euro IV2) 2011 CDU-3 Revamp New Gas Turbine SBM Expansion TPX Expansion
Ethanol 0.5ML/Day Ethanol 0.1ML/Day1)
730 MW IPP Total Q4/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q4/08 Q1/09 2011
34 59 125 9 22 12 78 72 6 66 210 92 58 4 8 103 84 163 49 225 515 100 111 213 153 1,366
On-going Under Development
218 43 150 282 150 12 350 50 50 100 45 16 61
1)Investment for 30% equity stake 2)Based on 50 ppm sulphur in gasoline & diesel Not yet confirmed on project’s holding stake
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0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50
Sugar Cane Cassava
TOP TOP’ ’s s Ethanol Project Progress Ethanol Project Progress
> 15% > 15% Project IRR Finalize detailed feasibility study Prepare project specifications & finalize detailed cost estimation Current Status Q1/09 Q4/08 Expected COD Sugar Cane (~0.5 mn. T/Y) Tapioca chips (~0.5 mn. T/Y) Feedstock
- Padaeng Industry (35%)
- Mitr Phol Sugar Group (35%)
Under discussion Partners with TOP Maesod, Tak, Thailand Central, Thailand Location US$ 150 mn. 0.5 mn. L/D US$ 40 mn.
- Est. Investment
0.1 mn. L/D Capacity Ethanol Plant
US$/L Grain (EU) Corn (China)* Sugar Cane (TH) Sugar Cane (Brazil) As of 2006
Source: Worldwatch Institute, except *Food & Economy Research Institute of Jilin Province
Cellulose
Comparison of Production Cost Analysis
Cassava (TH) Corn (US) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3
- Import parity price from Brazil has been agreed
to be used as domestic price which is currently traded at Bt. 19.3 per litre.
- With new Ethanol capacity come on stream in
2007, campaign for the use of Gasohol 91 will be promoted soon.
- Surplus production will have to be exported, if
economical.
Latest Development
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TOP TOP’ ’s s New IPP Bidding New IPP Bidding
Timetable for New IPP Bidding
Apr’07 Jul Oct Jan’08 Apr Jul Oct Oct’11 Oct’12
- Expected 3,000-4,000 MW capacity during 2011-2013.
- Unit and Plant Size Restriction: 800 and 1,600 MW,
respectively.
- Annual capacity will be announced following finalization
- f the new load forecast and power development plan in
early-2007. RFP issued Bid submission Preferred bidders named PPA signed COD – Gas plants COD – Coal plants
Source: IPP Solicitation Conference held by EPPO on 15 Dec’06
Key Policies Details for New Bidding Opportunity for TOP
TOP is in advantageous position given infrastructure available for additional 2*730 MW power plants:-
- Land of 100 Rais (40 acres)
- 28” natural gas / raw water pipeline
- 230 KV transmission line and available diesel oil storage facilities for back up
- EIA approval obtained
- State-owned enterprise (SOE) and any bidder that is
directly or indirectly owned by SOE more than 50% is not allowed to bid.
- US$ indexation of Availability Payment is partially allowed
if FX moves more than +/- 2 Baht around the reference rate.
- EIA approval & many Community Development Programs
are required prior to PPA execution.
23
Details & Potential of Investment Projects Details & Potential of Investment Projects
- To upgrade the existing base oil and
by-products to higher value specialty products
- Improved Refining Margin
- Better Plant Utilization
- Potential Projects
- Market survey to be conducted 2
new products
TLB Strategy Treated Distillate Aromatic Extract (TDAE) White Oil
Raw Material : Aromatic Extract 1st Phase : 16 kT/Y w/o major investment, start commercial production in Q2/07 2nd Phase : 36 kT/Y require investment Cost : US$ 25 mn. Raw Material : Base Oil 150SN & 500 SN Size : 50-75 kT/Y Cost : US$ 36 mn.
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Contents Contents
- Company Overview
- Business Outlook
- Progress of Investment Projects
- Consolidated Financial Performance
25
Improved Operations Improved Operations
2005 & 2006 105 96 82 74 92 91
104 97 71 77 92 92
FY/05 FY/06 (%)
TOP TPX TLB IPT TP TM TOP TOP TPX TPX TLB TLB IPT IPT TP TP TM TM
Refinery Utilization PX Production Lube Production Availability Utilization Utilization
2006 Net Profit 7,497 5,666 2,322 1,573 318 30 ∆ YoY
- 2,099
+1,996 +724 +1,130
- 154
+1 %∆ YoY
- 22%
+54% +45% +255%
- 33%
+3%
(Bt. mn.)
26
14,395 18,168 14,395 18,168 29,099 15,580 7,308 21,492 8,853 4,166 10,015 5,894 4,976 5,842 2,600 2,600 1,170 1,170
FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 JPY Loan THB Loan US$ Loan US$ & THB Bonds
100 200 300 400 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Diversification & Cost Reduction Diversification & Cost Reduction
Debt Portfolio 40,284 35,869 25,848
(60%) (16%)
- Bt. mn.
FY/06 Conso. TOP Only 84 / 16 49 / 51 60 / 40 6.3% US$ / Bt. 90 / 10 Fixed / Float 51 / 49 Bond / Loan* 73 / 27 Cost of Debt 6.2% TOP 82% IPT 16% TP 2%
Consolidated Debt TOP Group’’s Repayment Schedule
- Bt. 30,452 mn.
(-US$ 841 mn.)
$ 350 mn. Euro Bond $ 72 mn. BHT Bond As of 31 Dec’06
30,452 28,504 24,934
*THB Bond swapped into US Loan with floating interest rate
(24%)
Consolidated Repayment Schedule
US$
Remarks: No long-term debts for TLB & TM , Numbers based on FX = Bt. 38/US$
31 30 148 118 145 39 97 12 350
$ 72 mn. BHT Bond
- Group’s
total debt at YE/06 reduced to Bt. 30,452 mn. due mainly to prepayment / repayment
- f LT loans, by Bt. 8,191 mn. in
2006.
- TPX has successfully secured
new attractive LT loan in Q4/06 to finance expansion.
- TOP’s inaugural Bt. 5,500 THB
bond helps smoothen repayment profile. Consolidated TOP Only
27
Financial Strength Financial Strength
Treasury Policy Net Debt / Equity <= 1.0x Net Debt / EBITDA <= 2.0x
13.1 13.5 11.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4
2004 2005 FY/06
ICR Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity
(Times)
Financial Ratios Balance Sheet
40,284 35,869 76,292
48,390
72,813 21,417 30,452
Current Assets Non-current Assets Total Equities Total Assets
115,427 124,169
Other Liabilities LT Debt
- Bt. mn.
FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 124,682
Dividend
- Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of net profit after
reserves, subject to investment plans. Dividend Payments for FY/06 Result Interim Dividend
- Bt. 1.50/sh.
Annual Dividend
- Bt. 3.50/sh.
Closing of Register Book : 21 Mar’07 Payment : 3 May’07
7.82 9.19 8.13 3.50 3.50 1.80 25% 40% 45% FY/04 FY/05 FY/06
EPS Total Dividend 25% Min. Div. Payout Bt./Sh. Interim Final
1.50 2.00
Payout 25% 40% 45% Yield 3.5% 5.5% 6.7%
28
Changes in Accounting Standards Changes in Accounting Standards
Previous Standard Equity Method Last-in-First-out (LIFO) New Standard Cost Method Weighted Average (WA) Rationale To comply with the Federation of Accounting Professions on Accounting Standard (FAP) announcement, dated 11 Oct 2006
- To comply with FAP, expected to
be announced in 2007
- To
better reflect company’s business & financial position
- In line with common industry
practice Implementation 1 Jan’07 with Retro Adjustment 1 Jan’07 with Retro Adjustment Impact on F/S Company Alone (No impact on conso. F/S) Company Alone & Consolidated F/S Others
- No implication on financial ratios
as per loan covenants and / or treasury policy levels
- No impact on ability to pay
dividends
- Value of inventories better reflect
prevailing prices
- Reduce volatility of stock
gain/loss Crude & Feedstock Inventory Investment in Subsidiaries / Affiliates
29
Conclusions Conclusions
- 2006 was another excellent year for TOP:-
- Utilization rate for TOP’s group was at a high level from group business
management and joint production planning.
- Overall margin improvement program of TOP group (Refinery/TPX/TLB)
and cooperation within PTT group (PTT/TOP/IRPC/ARC/BCP) contributed to US$ +0.50/bbl GRM.
- All major expansion projects progressed as planned.
- Our strong balance sheet provide greater opportunity for TOP group to
steadily grow its business while minimizing financial risk.
- 2007 will be another challenging year for TOP:-
- To complete all major projects as planned and within budget.
- To prepare and submit Bid for new IPP and be selected as a preferred
Bidder for at least one block of 730 MW (NG fired power plant).
- To proceed Ethanol projects and become major Cassava based Ethanol
Producer.
- To further optimize TOP group asset and strengthen cooperation within
PTT Petrochemical & Refining group.
30
Appendices Appendices
31
Awards & Recognitions in 2006 Awards & Recognitions in 2006
LT: Baa1 LT: BBB LT: AA-(tha) & ST: F1+(tha) Highest Credit Ratings Among Pure-Play Refineries in the Region Best Newly Listed Company & Most Improved Company in Asia 1,330th : World’s 2000 Leading Companies 1 of 13 : Thai Listed Companies 33rd : Platts Top Companies in Asia 140th : Platts Top Companies Globally Best Corporate Governance Report Award 2006
- 2nd: Largest Revenues ~ US$ 6 bn. (5% of SET) - 9M/06
- 4th: Largest Net Profit ~ US$ 0.4 bn. (4% of SET) - 9M/06
- 6th Most Liquidly Daily Traded ~ US$ 12 mn. (3% of SET) - 2006
- 8th: Largest Market Cap. ~ US$ 3 bn. (2% of SET) - 2006
One of the Most Popular Stocks on the SET
32
TOP Refinery TOP Refinery’ ’s Simplified Process Diagram s Simplified Process Diagram
CDU-1 CDU-2 CDU-3 TCU 19,300 HCU-1 FCCU 10,300 CCR-1 HDT-1 KMT 2,400 HDS-1 LPG ULG 95 JET KEROSENE GAS OIL ULG 91 HCU-2 47,600 CCR-2 50,000 HVU-1 HVU-2 HVU-3 95,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 74,900 210,000 FUEL OIL HDS-2 HDS-3 74,000 MX MX* 34,300 Crude
Distillation/Separation Conversion/Upgrading Treating
Long Residue LVGO Gas Oil Kerosene CDU Overhead TC Residue Short Residue TC Waxy Heavy Cycle Oil Heavy Naphtha Platformate LPG Light Plat Light Cycle Oil H C K e r
- Waxy
CC Gasoline HC Gas Oil ADIP Isomerate NGL 72 RON Mixed Xylene 50 RON 70 RON ISOM 21,500 Waxy IN-LINE BLEND BATCH BLEND Light Naphtha TC Kero/GO 95 RON 103 RON 89 RON 91 RON Imported LR *Sold to TPX in Apr’05
33
Hydrotreating-to-Refining Ratio2)
72% 48% 44% 33% 32% 32% 29% 22% 18% 16% TOP Zhenhai Reliance S-Oil Formosa BPCL Singapore Petroleum Esso Malaysia Indian Oil SK Corp (%)
Higher conversion ratios result in higher refining margins
90% 80% 71% 63% 44% 42% 42% 28% 15% 10%
TOP* Reliance Formosa S-Oil Singapore Petroleum Esso Malaysia SK Corp BPCL Zhenhai Indian Oil
Ability to meet more stringent product specifications at lower costs
+50 kbd after debottleneck in ‘07
Source: 2006 Oil and Gas Journal and *the Company 1) Hydrocracking, catalytic cracking, thermal cracking, catalytic reforming and isomerization capacities divided by total crude distillation capacity 2) Hydrocracking, hydrotreating and hydrodesulfurization capacities divided by total crude distillation capacity
*
Upgrading-to-Refining Ratio1)
70% 56%
+50 kbd after debottleneck in ‘07
(%)
One of the Most Complex Refineries in Asia Pacific One of the Most Complex Refineries in Asia Pacific
- Oil & Gas Journal
Oil & Gas Journal
34
Consistently Outstanding Performance
- SGSI Worldwide Annual Benchmarking
2004
Peer group comparisions 1st Tercile 2nd Tercile 3rd Tercile
- TOP performed very strongly when benchmarked against the global peers.
- The company ranked in the first tercile for five out of eight benchmarks, evidenced of its highly efficient operations.
- High Maintenance Effort and Personal Indices were offset by low labor costs.
Operating Cost Index Shell Personnel Index (Based on Headcounts) 2005 CEL Corrected Energy Loss Maintenance Effort (Based on Headcounts)
- Avg. Personnel Cost
Utilization Operational Availability Annualized Maintenance Costs
36
35
Regional Oil Demand, Regional Oil Demand, Refinery Utilization and Spreads Refinery Utilization and Spreads
90% 90% 82% 83% 82% 81% 86% 91%
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
China
- S. Korea
Japan India Others Utilization Oil Demand (Kbd) Refinery Utilization
Source: FACTS, Fall 2006
2 4 6 8 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 20 40 60 80 SGP Complex Refinery's GRM TOP's GRM Spot Dubai GRM US$/bbl
Source: *Singapore Complex GRM & Dubai Spot Prices from Reuters
Gross Refinery Margins & Spot Dubai Prices
Dubai US$/bbl
Regional Oil Demand & Refinery Utilization
36
Volatile Oil Product / Crude Prices & Volatile Oil Product / Crude Prices & Spreads in FY/06 Spreads in FY/06
US$/bbl US$/bbl
Oil Product & Crude Prices (US$/bbl) Product - Dubai Spreads (US$/bbl)
- 25
- 15
- 5
5 15 25 35
US$/bbl US$/bbl
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel Gasoline Dubai Fuel Oil Jet ULG95-DB FO-DB Jet-DB GO-DB
Q3/06 : Slump in ULG & FO prices & weaker GRM than expected
- Built-up crude stock in US & OECD countries,
- No hurricane as widely expected,
- End of US driving season,
- Easing geopolitical concerns in Iran and Nigeria.
Q4/06 : Depressed margin
- Mild winter in the region & US,
- Hefty US crude and heating oil stock,
- Very high Japanese kerosene stock due to warm weather,
- Limited gasoline demand from the US due to high stock.
Q1/06 : Soften GRM carried over from Q4/05
- Increase in crude prices faster than product prices
due to geopolitical tension in Iran (nuclear enrichment program) & Nigeria (ethnic unrest),
- Weak heating oil demand due to late winter.
Q2/06 : Record high GRM
- Unprecedented high level of global & regional
turnarounds,
- US phasing out of MTBE (summer ULG spec.),
- Very high gasoline imports to the US,
- Late winter in North Asia.
Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4
37 709 765 739 689 695 738 722 84% 89% 91% 91% 87% 87% 89%
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 4Q/05 1Q/06 2Q/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Petrochem & Others Utilization Rate
Softening Domestic Demand in FY/06 Softening Domestic Demand in FY/06
(Intake) 903 921 944
Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake (Kbd)
867 940 928 906
TOP RRC SPRC ESSO BCP 151 57 48 89 Intake (Kbd) 234 157 156 169 IRPC Utilization (%) 104 105 108 79
Intake / Utilization by Major Refineries in FY/06 (Kbd)
- Impact of heavy flooding, slowdown in industrial &
transportation sectors (Diesel) in Q3/06 and lower power consumption (FO) Q4/06 mainly caused oil demand in FY/06 to decline to 722 kbd (-2% YoY).
- Utilization dropped to 87% in Q4/06, mainly due to
maintenance shutdown at TOP (Oct) & IRPC (Nov).
- Apart from being shutdown for almost 1 month,
TOP maintained high utilization level at 105%.
- In FY/06, the country’s overall utilization was on
- avg. at 89%.
Oil Demand by Product Volume in FY/06 (Kbd)
93 125 74 338 107 124 101 78 317 101
05 06 05 06 05 06 05 06 05 06
%∆ +9% 0% +5%
- 6%
- 6%
kbd LPG Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel FO
Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy and Company *RRC’s total intake capacity 145 kbd from its Offering Memorandum
Utilization
38
11% 14% 4% 15% 7% 49%
TOP TOP’ ’s s Refinery Intake and Sales Breakdown Refinery Intake and Sales Breakdown
80% 81% 16% 10% 11% 14% 41% 38% 43%
17% 19% 11%
26% 26% 17% 6% 6% 14% 14%
3%
6%
TOP’s Crude Mix and Oil Product Yield TOP’s Customer Sales Breakdown
Middle Heavy Light
LPG Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel
PTT
50% 13% 10% 4% 12% 11%
Fuel Oil
TPX Shell / Caltex Domestic Independents BCP Export = 14%
7% 7%
Export = 18%
FY/05 +3%
- In FY/06 TOP was able to process more local crude up
to 16% at the expense of more expensive Far East crude.
- With highly complex & integrated facilities, up to 81%
- f crude came from M/E (heavy sour crude, i.e.
Murban & Oman) , allowing the company to capitalize
- n sweet-sour crude differentials.
- Approx. 60% of TOP production was middle distillates
to meet country’s demand & yield higher margin. FY/05 FY/06
F/E Local M/E
- TOP increased export sales in FY/06 by 4% YoY as it switched
to focus on jet export during Q3/06 to capture higher margin and to adjust with lower demand in Thailand. Tapis (F/E) Dubai (M/E) FY/05 57.9 70.0 +12.1 49.3 12.8 18.3 14.7
- 9.0
FY/06 61.5 11.7 19.1 15.2 ∆
- 13.1
+12.2
- 1.1
+0.8 +0.5
- 4.1
ULG 95 - Dubai Jet - Dubai Diesel - Dubai Fuel Oil - Dubai
Oil Prices / Spreads – MOPS (US$/bbl) 14,351 Mn. L
FY/06
14,843 Mn. L
Thailand’s Oil Demand
39
TOP’s Gross Refining Margin - LIFO
GRM & GRM & TOP TOP’ ’s s Performance Performance
2,415 2,056 428 13,334 164 783 9,596 20,356 7,497
- 425
105 108 98 104 105
EBITDA Net Profit % Utilization
(Bt. mn.)
TOP’s Performance
Q4/06 FY/06 %YoY %QoQ %YoY EBITDA
- 82%
- 79%
- 34%
NP
- 359%
- 154%
- 22%
- In Q4/06, TOP’s utilization reduced to 98% due to
planned shutdown of CDU-1 for 25 days in
- October. FY/06’s utilization however remained
high at 105%.
- With slow winter demand in Q4/06, market GRM for
TOP decreased to US$ 3.62/bbl.
- Inventory loss of US$ 2.11/bbl was realized in
Q4/06 due to higher cost of crude purchased in the previous quarters. Accounting GRM therefore reduced to US$ 1.51/bbl for the period.
- FY/06, market GRM remained at US$ 4.92/bbl. With
minimal stock gain, accounting GRM reduced YoY by 25% to US$ 4.96/bbl.
- As a result, Q4/06 reported a net loss of Bt. 425
- mn. (-359% YoY). However, the company
remained to report a net profits for FY/06 of Bt. 7,497 mn. (-22% YoY). Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06
- 22%
22%
3.75 8.00 5.08 4.92 0.90 2.62 1.54 0.04 3.62 4.35 3.85
- 0.85
- 2.11
- 1.65
Market GRM Stock Gain/Loss
3.00 2.70 1.51 6.62 4.96
(US$/bbl) Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06
10.62 4.65
40
PX Margin & PX Margin & TPX TPX’ ’s s Performance Performance
- 200
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
(US$/Ton)
PX MX ULG 95
PX, MX and ULG 95 Spot Prices / Margins
527 371
Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4
512 332 264 378 402 398 732 575 PX-ULG 95
(Bt. mn.)
TPX’s Performance
1,354 2,110 1,419 4,376 6,125 5,666 3,670 1,323 1,965 1,299 94 97 91 97 96
EBITDA Net Profit % Production
Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 Q4/06 FY/06 %YoY %QoQ %YoY EBITDA +5%
- 33%
+40% NP +2%
- 33%
+54% +54% +54%
- In Q4/06, TPX’s utilization dropped to 97% due
to shutdown for catalyst change for 5 days. FY/06’s utilization, however, remained high at 96%.
- PX – ULG 95 spread narrowed to US$ 575/T in
Q4/06 which reflected softening PX price at a higher magnitude than its feedstock.
- FY/06, PX – ULG 95 spread rose YoY by 42% to
US$ 527/T, reflecting regional tight supply as well as limited arbitrate from the US aggravated by MTBE phasing out.
- With significant improvement in performance,
TPX totally repaid LT loans of Bt. 1,331 mn. in Oct’06, thus reducing interest by Bt. 134 mn.,
- As a result, TPX reported a net profit of Bt. 1,419
- mn. in Q4/06 while it registered a record net
profit for FY/06 of Bt. 5,666 mn. (+54% YoY).
41
LB Margin & LB Margin & TLB TLB’ ’s s Performance Performance
500 SN & HSFO Spot Prices / Margins
(Bt. mn.)
TLB’s Performance
- 200
400 600 800 1,000 1,200
HSFO 500 SN
(US$/Ton)
296 282 318 429 480 525 623 687 500–HSFO
Q1/05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4
579 331
2,768 81 94 84 71 82
EBITDA NP fr. Oper. % Production
278 843 716 247 697 572 2,322 1,767 1,598 Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 Q4/06 FY/06 %YoY %QoQ %YoY EBITDA +158%
- 15%
+57% NP fr. Oper. +132%
- 18%
+45%
*Exclude TLB’s impairment reversal of Bt. 2,894 mn. & gain from assets sold of Bt. 154 mn. in Q4/05 & FY/05
+45% +45%
- Utilization dropped to 84% in Q4/06 due to shutdown
for a partial catalyst change in TOP’s HCU-1. Nonetheless, FY/06’s registered a record utilization at 94% due in to catalyst change during major turnaround in Q1/06 & HCU bottom processing.
- 500 SN – HSFO spread further strengthened to US$
687/T in Q4 due to softening feedstock cost.
- 500 SN – HSFO spread for FY/06 rose to US$ 579/T
(+75%), reflecting regional tight supply due to shutdown of regional lube base plants & widening gap between gasoil – fuel oil.
- TLB also enjoyed the benefit from synergy with
TOP, e.g. reduction in fuel cost from using cheaper refinery fuel oil from TOP.
- Despite higher corporate income tax in Q4/06, TLB
reported a record operating profit of Bt. 572 mn. Net profit for FY/06 of was Bt. 2,322 mn. (+45% YoY).
42
IPT, TP & TM Performance IPT, TP & TM Performance
11 20 15 81 7 2 30 82
- 1
29 93 90 90 92 91
EBITDA NP fr. Oper. % Production
(Bt. mn.)
IPT’s Performance
538 763 710 1,996 274 563 577 1,573 1,638 443 87 98 91 77 74
EBITDA Net Profit % Production
Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06 +255% +255% (Bt. mn.)
TP’s Performance
198 203 154 724 119 84 44 318 790 472 95 97 89 92 92
EBITDA Net Profit % Production
Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06
- 3
3 % 3 3 % (Bt. mn.)
TM’s Performance
+ 3 % + 3 % Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 FY/05 FY/06
- IPT’s utilization in Q4/06 remained at 91%, resulting in FY/06
utilization of 74% following resuming full operation since Jun’06.
- With the remaining insurance claim revenue of Bt. 231 mn., IPT
reported net profit of Bt 577 mn in Q4/06. Coupled with FX gain
- f Bt 523 mn, IPT’s net profit for FY/06 increased to Bt. 1,573
- mn. (+255% YoY).
- TP’s
utilization declined to 89% in Q4/06 due to 10-day shutdown for Hot Gas Path Inspection. FY/06 utilization remained at 92%. TP’s net profit reduced 33% YoY due to higher utility fuel cost & corporate income tax.
- Excluding gains from sales of 2 TM’s vessels amounting of Bt.
55 mn., net profit from operation increased by Bt. 1 mn. YoY.
*Exclude gain from 2 vessels sold of Bt. 55 mn. in FY/05
43
Consolidated Profit & Loss Statement Consolidated Profit & Loss Statement
(Bt. mn.) Q4/05 Q3/06 Q4/06 % YoY % QoQ FY/05 FY/06 % YoY Sales Revenue 67,081 77,807 61,723
- 8%
- 21%
249,111 279,109 +12% EBITDA 4,803 5,993 3,438
- 28%
- 43%
29,003 25,014
- 14%
EBIT 3,270 4,054 1,636
- 50%
- 60%
22,538 17,922
- 20%
Interest Expenses (538) (481) (496)
- 8%
+3% (2,152) (1,917)
- 11%
Net Profit from Operation 2,521 3,783 1,840
- 27%
- 51%
15,948 16,647 +4% Bt/US$ - ending 41.17 37.64 36.23
- 12%
- 4%
41.17 36.23
- 12%
Gain/(Loss) fr. Other Act.* 2,756 1
- 100%
0% 2,805 (52)
- 102%
FX Gain/(Loss) 38 511 850 +2,137% +66% (1,032) 3,489 +438% Tax Expense (249) (301) (150)
- 40%
- 50%
(3,406) (2,847)
- 16%
Net Profit 5,277 3,783 1,841
- 65%
- 51%
18,753 16,595
- 12%
Thaioil 164 783 (425)
- 359%
- 154%
9,596 7,497
- 22%
Subsidiaries 5,113 3,000 2,266
- 56%
- 24%
9,157 9,098
- 1%
EPS (Bt/sh.) 2.59 1.85 0.90
- 65%
- 51%
9.19 8.13
- 12%
Effective Tax Rate (%) 4% 7% 7% +3% 0% 15% 14% +1%
*Other Activities mean Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment.
44
Total TOP TPX TLB IPT TP TM 164
- 425
2
- 1
119 274 247 1,299 2,521 44 577 572 1,323 1,840
Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/05 Q4/06
(Bt. mn.)
- 2
7 % 9,596 1,573 318 30 29 472 443 1,598 3,670 15,948 2,322 5,666 7,497 16,647 (Bt. mn.) +4%
FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06 FY/05 FY/06
Financial Highlight Financial Highlight – – Net Profit from Operation Net Profit from Operation
PX 33% Refinery 43% LB 13%
FY/06
Power 11%
Q4/06
PX 63% LB 27% Power 30%
Q4/06 NP from Operation
- Bt. 1,840 mn.
*Refinery -20% FY/06 NP from Operation
- Bt. 16,647 mn.
*Exclude other activities (Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment)
45 FY/05 FY/06 YoY Utilization 92% 92% 0% EBITDA 790 724
- 8%
NP from Op. 472 318 -33%
TLB
100%
(Bt. mn.)
100%
TPX
FY/05 FY/06 YoY Production 97% 96%
- 1%
PX-ULG95 ($/t) 371 527 +42% EBITDA 4,376 6,125 +40% NP from Op. 3,670 5,666 +54% FY/05* FY/06 YoY Production 71% 82% +11% 500SN-HSFO ($/t) 331 579 +75% EBITDA 1,767 2,768 +57% NP from Op. 1,598 2,322 +45% FY/05 FY/06 YoY Utilization 92% 91%
- 1%
EBITDA 82 81
- 1%
NP from Op. 84 30 +3%
100%
TM
FY/05 FY/06 YoY Avail. 77% 74%
- 3%
EBITDA 1,638 1,996 +22% NP from Op. 443 1,573+255%
55% 56% 24%
TP IPT
FY/05 FY/06 YoY Utilization 104% 105% +1% GRM ($/bbl) 6.62 4.96
- 25%
EBITDA 20,356 13,334
- 34%
NP from Op. 9,596 7,497
- 22%
TOP Consolidated
Thaioil’s Group
FY/05* FY/06 YoY 29,003 25,014
- 14%
15,948 16,647 +4%
Performance Breakdown by Company Performance Breakdown by Company
*Net Profit form Operation excluded other activities (Gain & Loss from Fixed Asset sold & Assets Impairment)
46
Cash Flow FY/05 & FY/06 Cash Flow FY/05 & FY/06
(Bt. mn.) FY05 / FY/06 Operating Cash Flow 20,404 17,911 Net income & non-cash adj. 28,946 (8,542) 26,072 Change in assets & liabilities (8,161)
+
Financing (12,113) (14,342) Repayment of LT loans (30,586) 24,384 (3,799) (2,112) (9,670) Proceed from Loan & Notes 7,978 Dividend payment (10,358) Interest payment (2,292)
+ + =
Free Cash Flow 16,697 9,616 CAPEX & Investment (3,707) (8,295) CAPEX (PP&E) (4,377) 670 Other investment (8,278) (17) Beginning Cash 6,667 11,252 (4,726) 4,584 Net Increase in Cash 6,526 11,251 Ending Cash