development to alleviate poverty in rural Kenya Sally Brailsford - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling pastoral policy development to alleviate poverty in rural Kenya

Sally Brailsford and Saidimu Leseeto

UK System Dynamics Conference, London, February 2013

Kenya and Samburu district

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Population = 40 m

Kenya facts

• Ranked 128th out of 169 UN Development Programme countries in

2010, based on Human Development Index (measures development in terms of life expectancy, educational attainment and standard of living)

• Poverty rate* increased from 47% to 53% between 1994-1997: now just

under 50%, 80% of whom live in rural areas

• Main economic activity is agriculture (half of which is livestock)

employing ~80% of the total labour force but contributing only 21% of GDP

• Over 80% of livestock are in Arid & Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) where

regular droughts cause loss, low productivity, market instability, malnutrition and food insecurity

* % of working-age people who earn less than an international dollar a day

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Population growth and poverty

• Very rapid growth:

Kenyan population has tripled over past 30 years, now 40 million

• Samburu district:

population 224,000, annual growth rate 4.5%

• 82.3% of people live in

poverty; pastoralists form 63% of these

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79.90 108.80 154.40 223.90

2.5 5.4 8.6 10.9 15.3 21.4 28.7 38.6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1897 1948 1962 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 National Pop (Millions) Census Years Samburu Population (,000s)

Human Population

District Pop. National Pop.

Environmental factors

• Strong linkages between poverty and environmental

degradation, particularly poor water management, soil erosion, declining soil fertility and land degradation

• Effects of climate change are undermining an already

fragile resource base and have contributed to declining agricultural yields over the past decades

• Drought is a perennial problem in parts of Kenya

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Droughts

• Periodic feature… or impact of climate change?
• Land degradation effects measured in NDVI (Normalized

Difference Vegetation Index) using satellite data

• People have to travel further (or move) for water; children

stop attending school; cattle die; people become poorer; people die

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Drought data 1979 - 2000

7 Year Impact Inter-drought duration Livestock mortality & Area of Study

1979-1980 Severe 4 (1974/6)

50-70%,Turkana district 63% Cattle, 45% camels & 55% sheep and goats

1984 Severe 4 years

50% in Baringo district 56%, Ethiopia (East African Country 69% Kenya

1987-1988 Mild 4 Years

None established

1991-1992 Severe 4 years

50-60%,Garissa,Northern Kenya 86% Northern Kenya

1997/8 Mild 5 years

40% Samburu,

1999-2000 Severe 2 years

50% cattle & 20% goats, Samburu district 53%, Ethiopia (E.A Country)

Tourism industry

• Major source of income: contributes 11% of GDP
• Wildlife compete with agricultural livestock for rangeland

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Livestock

• Measured in Tropical Livestock Units (TLU): one TLU = 1 cow, 1 camel,

10 goats or 10 sheep

• Source of nutrition: meat, milk and blood
• Source of income: sale of live animals, carcass, skin and hides
• Store of wealth: measure of wealth and reserves
• Insurance against risks: droughts, diseases and

raids, predation, and accidents

• Symbol of status and respect
• Instrument for building social relations

e.g. marriages, penalties/fines and friendship

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System Interaction; Rangeland, Livestock and Human Wellbeing

High-level influence diagram

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Productive Rangeland Livestock Population Human Population Wildlife Population Drought Event

• +

+

• +
• +
• (B1)

(R) (B4) (B3) (B2)

Study area for data collection

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1 2 3 4 5 Sample Area

Samburu district

• A typical pastoral system: households depend on rangeland

productivity totally influenced by climate variability

• Socio-economic activities are agro-pastoral and pastoral, with over 90%
• f the total land mass being pure pastoral
• Land is communally owned and is used for rearing cattle, sheep, goats,

camels and donkeys in addition to using it for settlement.

• Most households are entirely dependent on livestock and livestock
• products. The County is ranked one of the poorest in the country, with

the district poverty index of 84%, and below 30% literacy rate

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Model data

• Rainfall, NDVI and other pastoral data from the Arid Lands

Resource Management Project (ALRMP)

• Market prices, livestock births and mortality etc from the

International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi

• Demographic, socio-economic and educational data from

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

• Plus primary data collected locally in Samburu District by

Saidimu over a 3-month period (interviews with 30 households)

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Outcome measures: the “Five Capitals”

• Developed in the 1990’s by Forum for the Future
• Human, Financial, Social, Manufactured and Natural
• In this study the term Physical was used in place of

Manufactured (the physical assets, i.e. livestock)

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Model outputs

• Human capital: prevalence of food insecurity, measured by

the % of children below 5 years old with Middle-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) readings less than 135mm; educational attainment (size of skilled workforce)

• Natural capital: annual biomass (grass) production in kg
• Physical capital: # of livestock, measured in TLU
• Social capital: poverty rates
• Financial capital: TLU per household and household milk

consumption

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Stella (ithink) model ….

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Physical asset (livestock) dynamics

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Model validation

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10 20 30 40 Rate of malnutrition (%) Time (Jan 2006- March 2010) SD model malnutrition rate (%) Actual malnutrition rate (%) 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Rate of poor households (%) Time (Jan 2006- March 2010) Actual poverty (%) SD model poverty (%)

Simulation experiments

• 25-year run, dt = 1 month
• Baseline plus various combinations of 8 basic strategies,

derived following discussions with local decision-makers, plus three additional education strategies:

– Increase school retention by feeding programmes for schoolchildren and thereby reduce drop-out rate by 50% – Increase school enrolment rate from 50% (current local level) to 74% (current national level) – Both the above

• In total 21 different risk mitigation strategies were tested

(and costed)

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Broad strategy Implementation criteria Impact 1 Land reclamation Planting grass on degraded rangelands Reclaim 5% of degraded rangeland annually for every good rainfall year Replacing weed and other shrubs by grass , preventing soil erosion 2 Settlement planning Give priority to settlement at degraded rangeland Resettle 50% of all households Settle 100% of new households 3 Livestock feeding Purchase supplementary feeds for livestock whenever there is a shortage of pasture Sell livestock to purchase 2/3 of the feeds required and reduce drought mortality by 1/3 4 Veterinary services Treating livestock through vaccination against common diseases Reduce drought mortality by 20%; reduce average diseases caused deaths by 50%; sell SSU to finance 100%

• f veterinary costs.

5 Restocking Livestock insurance Sell cattle to finance 5.5% of livestock value as premiums; restock livestock lost through drought through compensation 6 Security Rule out inter-ethnic conflicts Reduce livestock losses arising from insecurity by 100% 7 Market infrastructure Encourage voluntary livestock off-take Double sales rate during drought years and reduce drought mortality rate proportionately. Repurchase 50% sold after the drought 8 Enhance conservation Increase core conservation areas by 30% by the end of 2030 Reduce productive rangeland by 30% of core conservation Compensate with reclamation by recovering 50% of degraded land Increase productive rangeland by 50% of degraded land

Basic strategies

Natural Capital Social Capital Skilled labour Malnutrition Biomass Household TLU Household Milk Livestock Worth (US$) Poverty rates Baseline Baseline Scenario 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 Reclaim 5% of degraded rangeland for every good rainfall year 1.41 10.07 3.60 4.22 4.56 1.05 2 Relocate 50% of households and all new households to degraded rangeland

• 1.30

1.14 0.08 0.07

• 0.23
• 0.15

3 Purchase of supplementary feeds 1.80 0.25 3.80 32.68

• 2.40

1.15 4 Veterinary services

• 5.50
• 0.35
• 12.95

25.52 25.78

• 3.90

5 Restocking through livestock insurance policy 3.76

• 0.51

8.90 64.35 54.79 2.65 6 Bolster security and minimise insecurity related livestock losses 15.38

• 0.04

36.70 0.73 1.41 10.92 7 Destocking livestock prior to drought by increasing normal sales rate by 50% 1.25

• 0.08

3.05 8.38 10.98 0.90 8 Increase conservation areas by 30% in exchange of 50% reclamation of degraded rangeland 5.82

• 21.44

5.07

• 14.63
• 14.84

1.78 9 Reclamation and planned settlements

• 6.17

11.23

• 13.02

4.47 4.46

• 3.94

10 Reclamation, planned settlement and supplementary feeding

• 2.13

11.41

• 6.01

45.45 7.16

• 1.78

11 Reclamation, planned settlement, supplementary feeding and veterinary services 3.03 10.96 4.97 93.36 38.26 1.53 12 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services and restocking program 45.50 10.31 130.10 213.62 192.49 36.61 13 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services , restocking program and bolster security 47.11 10.28 143.00 219.71 198.83 38.71 14 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services , supplementary feeding and bolster security 3.55 10.94 6.53 96.31 40.18 1.98 15 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services , supplementary feeding, bolster security and destocking 10.30 10.82 12.76 112.07 55.07 4.16 16 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services , restocking, bolster security and destocking 48.18 10.29 128.41 181.51 173.71 36.37 17 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services , supplementary feeding, bolster security, destocking and enhanced conservation 2.51

• 10.37
• 5.41

73.08 26.73

• 1.26

18 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services , restocking, bolster security, destocking and enhanced conservation 41.24

• 10.83

99.87 129.16 123.88 29.39 19 Increase school retention by school feeding programs 8.41 20 Increase enrolment rate to match the national level (50% to 74%) 12.62 21 Combined education strategy of increased enrolment and retention 22.90 Percentage Change in the 5C's Compared with Baseline Scenario Human Capital Financial Capital Strategy Strategy Details

Results: overview

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Total Livestock Unit (TLU) per household Years

Strategy 8 Baseline Strategy 13

TLU per household under the best and worst strategies

Strategy 8 Increase conservation areas by 30% in exchange for 50% of reclaimed land Strategy 13 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services, restocking programme, bolster security

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of poor households (%) Years Baseline Strategy 12 Strategy 13 Strategy 8

Poverty rates under the best and worst strategies

Strategy 8 Increase conservation areas by 30% in exchange for 50% of reclaimed land Strategy 12 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services, restocking programme Strategy 13 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services, restocking programme, bolster security

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• 5,000,000

10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Biomass production in Kilograms (Kgs) Year range Strategy 10 Strategy 8 Strategy 18 Baseline

Annual biomass production under the best and worst strategies

Strategy 8 Increase conservation areas by 30% in exchange for 50% of reclaimed land Strategy 10 Reclamation, planned settlement, supplementary livestock feeding Strategy 18 Reclamation, planned settlement, veterinary services, restocking programme, bolster security, destocking and enhanced conservation

Overall results

30 Measurements

Strategy rank for best output

1 2 3

Human Capital % of skilled labour to total population

21 20 19

% of children at risk of malnutrition

16 13 12

Natural Capital Productive rangeland size (ha)

10 9 11

Financial Capital Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU) per Household

13 12 16

Livestock Worth (US$)

13 12 16

Vulnerability measure Percentage of poor households (%)

13 12 16

Strategy 9 Reclamation and planned settlements Strategy 10 Reclamation, planned settlements, supplementary livestock feeding Strategy 12 Reclamation, planned settlements, veterinary services and supplementary livestock feeding Strategy 13 Reclamation, planned settlements, veterinary services , restocking programme and bolster security, Strategy 16 Reclamation, planned settlements, veterinary services, restocking programme, bolster security, destocking and enhanced conservation Strategy 20 Increase school enrolment rate to national level (74%) from 50% Strategy 21 Increase school enrolment rate and retention by feeding programme

Impact

• Saidimu has presented his work several time at workshops

and conferences in Kenya

• He is now back in Nairobi and is employed by ILRI (the

International Livestock Research Institute)

• Currently working with other researchers developing a

drought Early Warning System (EWS): project funded by the Drought Monitoring Authority (NDMA) in the Ministry

• f Northern Kenya and Arid Areas Development

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Acknowledgements

• Saidimu’s doctoral study was funded by the School of

Management, University of Southampton

• Additional technical expertise and input on climate, NDVI

etc provided by Prof Terry Dawson, formerly in the School

• f Geography at Southampton but now at Dundee
• ILRI and ALRMP for providing additional financial

support, access to KNBS and other data plus research assistance in the fieldwork

• Saidimu’s very supportive wife Irene and new

baby Nigel Letilan

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Questions?