development in Latin America and the Caribbean: The territory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ALICIA BÁRCENA

EXECUTIVE SECRETARY INEGI

México D.F ., November 11, 2015

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean: The territory matters

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Contents

1. Equality as the main dimension of development 2. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 3. Persistent gaps 4. Challenges for the implementation

• f 2030 Agenda

5. Role of data, statistics, and geographic information

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Why time for equality?

• The international financial crisis marked a turning point

which broke the continuity of a market model associated to decades of wealth concentration

• Three critical tensions need to be addressed:
• Culture of privileges/Culture of equality
• Distribution of productivity gains between capital and labour

(wage bill)

• Rent-seeking and extractivism versus the sustainability and

governance of natural resources

• Inequality is not inevitable
• Predominance of finance over the real economy
• Crisis on a planetary scale: food, energy , climate

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

What is proposed under the Agenda 2030 for development and the SDGs?

• A civilizatory agenda oriented to people, planet and prosperity .
• A universal Agenda that proposes equality for growth and growth for equality

beyond basic needs

• Eradicates extreme poverty by 2030
• Universalizes rights, social benefits and access to education and healthcare
• Fosters inclusion through the labour market
• Promotes equality by building human capacities
• Preserves the ecological integrity of the land and sea
• Global collective action to protect the biosphere (stop climate change) and

the commons (oceans , biodiversity , forests)

• Gender equality
• Holistic agenda which links peace, security, human rights and development
• Access to information, data innovation, justice and social participation
• Global compact for financing, trade and technology transfer

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

The 2030 Agenda 2030: 17 Goals – 169 targets

• Access to open, impartial and public information on

demographic, geographic, economic, social and environmental data and trends provided by official statistical agencies

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Economic inclusion: structural change + industrialization

• Productivity gaps: full employment opportunities
• Decent jobs: income/functional distribution, fair wages
• Investment gaps: infrastructure, roads, energy,
• Capabilities gaps: education, science and technology inclusion

Social inclusion: universal access to social protection

• Progressive compliance and fulfillment of rights,
• Attain critical aspirations of society: safety, health and a prosperous society

within the planetary boundaries

• Poverty eradication, food security/nutrition, health + well-being

Environmental inclusion: access to public goods

• Re-distribution of rents and productive gains from extraction of natural

resources, quality of life for all, global public goods

• Environmental Protection
• Public services, quality of life and urban environment

Agenda 2030 proposes: growth for equality and equality for growth

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Latin America and the Caribbean faces eight structural challenges:

1. Difficult external context with tectonic changes 2. Weaker growth, trade and consumption 3. Investment too slow to drive development and innovation 4. Insufficient and limited fiscal space: tax collection is low and poorly implemented; debt is very high in the Caribbean 5. Low productivity and competitiveness with reprimarization and poor innovation and value added 6. Environmental unsustainability, increasing carbon intensity of economies and severe climate vulnerability 7. Insufficient intraregional trade, with a low degree of integration of value chains 8. Functional inequality: growing concentration of income, capital and technology

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• Reorganization of the global economy and international

politics into blocs: TPP, TTIP, RCEP, BRICS

• De-linkage between the financial market and the real

economy

• Unprecedented technological revolution
• Demographic transition and migration are changing the

development profile

• Urbanization trends: 80% of the population live in cities
• Increasing ecological footprint
• Climate change and vulnerability to natural disasters, with

a cummulative costs of US$ 350 billion

• Social conflicts, insecurity, violence

Tectonic shifts

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

The Megaregional negotiations seek to link the three great world "factories”

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ASEAN +6 Trasnpacific Trade Partnership

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

FTA Japan-European Union

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

2010: 23 Aged economies 2040: 89 Aged economies

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 1. A more complex global context
• The world economy has not expanded as expected. Growth

projections for 2015 were downgraded from 3.2% to 2.5%.

• Upturn in growth in the United States (about 2.5% in 2015) with

positive impacts for remittances, tourism and trade in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

• Fiscal imbalances and lack of competitiveness in the Eurozone,

plus high unemployment and slow growth of 1.6% in 2015 are acting as a drag on global trade.

• Slowdown in China from a growth of 9.2% in 2011 to less than

7.0% in 2015 is having an impact on countries that export natural resources.

• End of quantitative easing (QE) in the United States and launch
• f QE in Europe likely to create more volatile financial

conditions.

• The region is not growing: -0.3% of GDP for 2015

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH

(Percentages, on the baisis of dollars at constant 2010 prices)

• 0.3

1.6

• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 Venezuela (República Bolivariana de) Brasil América Latina Santa Lucía Ecuador Trinidad y Tabago Jamaica Granada Barbados Argentina El Caribe Dominica Haití Antigua y Barbuda Bahamas Chile El Salvador México San Vicente y las Granadinas Uruguay Belice Costa Rica Perú Colombia Suriname Paraguay Honduras Guatemala Cuba Nicaragua Bolivia (Estado Plurinacional de) Saint Kitts y Nevis Guyana República Dominicana Panamá

• 2. The economic and trade slowdown indicates a

future with lower growth

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ANNUAL VARIATION IN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, 2000-2015 a (Percentages)

Source: ECLAC, based on official figures from the countries’ central banks, customs offices and national institutes of statistics.

a Figures for 2015 are projections.

• 15.0

1.0

• 14.0
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Volume Price Value

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 3. Investment is too low to drive development
• In infrastructure
• In research, science

and innovation

• In development

banking: inclusive financing

• In cleaner

production solutions

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, 1970-2014 (Percentages of GDP, on the basis of dollars at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and World Bank, World Development Indicators.

23.6 20.5 20.4 19.5 20.8 20.4

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Latin America Eastern Asia and Pacific

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 3. Major gaps in economic infrastructure

ELECTRIC GENERATION, 1980-2012 (Megawatts per 1,000 inhabitants)

Source: ECLAC,, Econmic Survey 2015. Online: http://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/38715/S1500732_en.pdf?sequence=111

DENSITY OF ROAD NETWORK, 2007 AND 2012 (Kilometers per 100 km2)

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 4. Tax collection is low and poorly implemented

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF THE LEVEL AND STRUCTURE OF THE TAX BURDEN (Percentages of GDP)

• Regressive tax

structure

• Low tax burden in

most countries

• High evasion
• Widespread

exemptions

• Social spending has a

limited redistributive impact

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). a The coverage for calculating the Latin American average refers to central government except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and the Plurinational State

• f Bolivia, where it refers to general government.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 5. The greatest structural challenge is to diversify

exports and reduce dependence on raw materials

LATIN AMERICA AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN EAST ASIA: PATTERN OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND SHARE OF EXPORTS, 1985-2011 (Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS TO SELECTED DESTINATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY, 2000, 2005 AND 2014 (Percentages )

48 50 56 48 56 68 21 25 19 24 22 29 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2005 2014 2000 2005 2014 2000 2005 2014 2000 2005 2014 European Union Asia and the Pacific United States Latin America and the Caribbean High-Tech Manufactures Medium-Tech Manufactures Low-Tech Manufactures Natural resource-based manufactures Commodities

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 5. Our region is far behind in knowledge generation

and innovation

1990 2000 2012 Developed countriesa 87,3 75,2 52,4 Rest of the world 12,7 24,8 47,8 China 1,0 3,8 27,8 Republic of Corea 2,6 7,4 8,0 Latin America and the Caribbean 1,9 3,5 2,5

SHARE OF WORLD PATENT APPLICATIONS (Percentages)

Source: World Intellectual Patent Organization (WIPO).

a Includes Europe, United Sates and Japan.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 6. The current style of development fosters

the intensive use of energy

GLOBAL TRENDS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, 1990-2011 (Percentages of global emissions) LATIN AMERICA: PER CAPITA GDP AND PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 2008 (Kilograms of oil equivalent and 2005 purchasing power parity dollars)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Structural Change for Equality: an integrated approach to development (LC/G.2524(SES.34/3)), Santiago, Chile, 2012. Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), The European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean in the new economic and social context, Santiago, 2015.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 6. Climate change vulnerability and

natural disasters (1990-2014)

• More than 328 natural disasters in the Caribbean
• 240,000 lives claimed
• Cost US $39b in damage ; $9b 2007-2011
• All six OECS countries rank among the ten most

vulnerable in the world

• Dominica’s GDP fell 17% after Hurricane David
• Grenada’s GDP fell 200% after Hurricane Ivan
• 50% of the Caribbean population lives 1.5 km from

the coast

• Impact of vector borne diseases rising

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 6. For Caribbean countries aggregated multilateral and

bilateral debt represent 40% and 14% of total external debt

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% BLZ DMA GRD GUY JAM LCA VCT

EXTERNAL DEBT COMPOSITION 2013 (Percentage) PPG, bilateral PPG, multilateral PPG, private creditors PPG, bilateral 14% PPG, multilateral 40% PPG, private creditors 46% TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT COMPOSITION 2013 (Percentage)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 7. However, the region’s intraregional trade

is still limited, with little production integration

Source: ECLAC, Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2014. Online: http://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/37196/S1420692_en.pdf?sequence=1

SELECTED GROUPINGS: SHARE OF INTRA-GROUP EXPORTS IN TOTAL EXPORTS, 2008-2013 (Percentages)

Grouping Percentage ASEAN+5 34 TLCAN 19 European Union 17 Latin America and the Caribbean 10

SHARE OF PARTS AND COMPONENTS IN INTRA-GROUP EXPORTS, 2013 (Percentages)

59.1 49.6 49.8 19.2 27.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 European Union NAFTA ASEAN+5 a Latin America and the Caribbean Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico)

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• 8. Poverty and indigence have fallen significantly

in the past decade, but this trend flattened in 2012

Latin America: percentages of poor and indigent Millions of poor and indigent

Source: ECLAC, Social Panorama of Latin America, 2014.

a Estimate for 19 Latin American countries. Includes Haiti. b Projection.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

All the Goals of the 2030 Agenda require the support of data, statistics and geographic information to improve indicators and broaden the vision on social wellbeing

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Why is territory and geography so relevant?

• 1. Geographical averages hide inequality
• 2. Understanding our territory allows the design of

indicators of welfare with an integrated approach

• 3. SDGs require a geographical interpretation at regional,

national and subnational levels

• 4. Geographical information fosters productive synergies

and natural resources governance

• 5. Geospatial information should help public policies to

revert concentration of wealth and the lack of basic needs

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Dimensions of the social inequality matrix

• Gender, race and ethnic group

– 826 indigenous people representing over 46 million people – Over120 million Afro-descendants – Together, they make up 25% of the region’s population – Gender, ethnic and racial inequalities intersect and heighten each

• ther:

indigenous and Afro- descendent women are the most disadvantaged

• Life cycle (children, youth and older persons)
• Territorial inequalities: rural/urban

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

SDG 10, Target 10.2 By 2030, empower, and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status

a/ Panamá no cuenta con datos de indigentes. Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de las encuestas de hogares de los respectivos países.

LATIN AMERICA (7 COUNTRIES): POVERTY RATES IN THE INDIGENOUS AND NON-INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS (Percentages)

15.3 10.6 42.0 22.6 47.5 34.9 49.9 32.4 52.4 30.9 72.2 43.8 80.6 20.8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Indigenous Non-indigenous Indigenous Non-indigenous Indigenous Non-indigenous Indigenous Non-indigenous Indigenous Non-indigenous Indigenous Non-indigenous Indigenous Non-indigenous Chile (2011) Peru (2012) Bolivia (Plur.State of) (2011) Mexico (2012) Ecuador (2012) Guatemala (2006) Panama (2010) a/

Poor Indigent

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Data and measurements of wellbeing and quality of life

• A multi-dimensional approach is key to understand

vulnerability and inequality beyond national or regional averages

• Income, right-based employment
• Access to public goods: health, water, education,

energy

• Education performance
• Environment and quality of life
• Food, energy and climate security

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Measuring sustainability

• Atlas of vulnerability, environmental and climate

change

• Risk mapping
• Early warning
• Measuring objective and subjective wellbeing:
• Use of time
• Habitability
• Citizen security
• Critical territorial links between consumption and

production and its impact on transport costs

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Geography is essential to map out our natural resources and calculate our reserves

• LAC is the second region with more proven oil reserves (after

Middle East), 88% are in Venezuela

• 31% of biofuel production
• A third of fresh water reserves
• 15% of the world’s agricultural land
• 52% of soybean production and 16% of maize
• 31% of meat and 23% of milk
• 6 of the world’s 17 megadiverse countries are in the region
• 20% of the world’s surface areas of natural and high-diversity

forests

• 47% of copper production, 28% of molybdenum and 23% of zinc

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Agro-industry

• Fruit and nuts
• Oilseeds
• Leather

manufactures

Agro-industry

• Dairy
• Meat products
• Cereals and animal feed
• Fruit and vegetables
• Unmanufactured tobacco

Metal manufactures

• Precious metalwork
• Gold, silver and copper

Geography helps to understand potential intraregional linkages

Metal products

• Wire products
• Iron and aluminum structures
• Metal manufactures

Chemical products

• Polymers and

copolymers

• Heterocyclic

components

• Cosmetics
• Wood pulp

Central America and Mexico South America

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Agro-industry

• Prepared foods
• Cereals
• Canned Fruit
• Jams

Chemistry and Petro-chemistry

• pesticides
• disinfectants
• plastic

Manufactures on metal

• Gold jewelry
• Gold, Silver and Cooper

Important intraregional clusters

Metal products

• Concentrates of base metal
• Civil engineering, equipment and parts

Chemical products

• Polymers and copolymers
• Heterocyclic Components
• Cosmetics
• Pulp

Between Colombia and the rest of South America and Mexico

Between Bolivia, and South America

Between Peru and the rest of South America Between Chile and the rest of South America

Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

In Latin America and the Caribbean cities, will be the locus of development

Source: Weekly highlight, World Economic situation and Prospecs, UN-DESA.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

SDG 11, Target 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management

Grafico La distribución de la calidad del aire en Santiago, Chile.

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Mapa Vulnerabilidad de grandes ciudades a amenazas del clima, 2010

ODS 13, Target 13.1 Strengthen resilience and the adaptation capacity to risks related to climate and natural disasters in all countries

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Natural disasters in 2010

IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, 2010

Source: CEPAL, Desastres y desarrollo: el impacto en 2010. Online: http://www.cepal.org/desastres/noticias/noticias/2/42102/Desastres2010_WEB.pdf

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

SDG 14, Target 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans

Coastal impact Coastal dynamics

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Gráfico América Latina y el Caribe (33 países y territorios): proporción de superficie cubierta por bosques y emisiones de dióxido de carbono totales y por habitante (En porcentajes, miles de toneladas de CO2 y toneladas por habitante)

Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), base de datos CEPALSTAT, sobre la base de Naciones Unidas, Base de datos de indicadores de los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio [en línea] http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Default.aspx.

SDG 15, Target 15.2 By 2020, promote the implementation

• f sustainable management of

all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

SDG 16, Target 16.5 Substantially reduce corruption and bribery in all their forms

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

• SDG. 16. Access to

Information , Justice and Citizenship

Project extractive industries in indigenous territories (mining and hydrocarbons) Over 200 conflicts

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Final remarks

• Statistics and geography must join forces to

design strong indicators for the 17 SDGs,

• Provide statistic coherence among

international organizations

• Be open to use big data with its limitations

and potential

• Help broaden the vision and synergies

among SDGs

• Design data on wellbeing, welfare, economic

progress and inequality

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

What do we need?

• SDGs to be interpreted and measured through

geographical indicators and maps

• Comparability
• Support trans-boundary issues and conflicts
• Regional indicators on biodiversity,

ecosystems, climate change

• Accountability mechanisms
• Institutional cooperation between planning,

finance and geographical institutions

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Statistics and indicators: Lessons learned from the MDGs

• National Statistical Offices: improvement of services
• Use non-traditional sources: big data, crowd-sourcing, real-

time

• Inter-institutional coordination: national, regional, global
• Greater statistical coherence between international and

national specialized organisms

• Increase in the production of basic statistics, for the

generation of indicators

• Greater availability and dissemination of statistics and
• indicators. On-line information and transparency
• Follow-up: national development plans
• Integration and synergies between sectors: access and links

between education and employment for poverty reduction and systematic redistribution of wealth

2030 Agenda for sustainable development in LAC: The territory matters Alicia Bárcena

Importance of the regional space

• Meeting between Statistics Conference of the

Americas and UN GGIM Americas

• First contact meeting will take place in Quito,

Ecuador and Rolando Ocampo will come to our Conference

• Strengthen the regional positions
• Complementarities between global and regional

institutions

• Protection of the most vulnerable
• Autonomy and independence