Debt Investor Presentation June 2011 Disclaimer By attending the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Debt Investor Presentation June 2011 Disclaimer By attending the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Debt Investor Presentation June 2011 Disclaimer By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, you agree to be bound by the following limitations. The information contained in this document has not been independently verified and no
Disclaimer
2 By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, you agree to be bound by the following limitations. The information contained in this document has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change
- materially. Neither Swedbank AB (publ) nor any of its affiliates including Swedbank Mortgage AB (publ) (jointly referred to as “Swedbank”) are under any obligation to update or keep current the information
contained in this document or in the presentation to which it relates and any opinions expressed in them is subject to change without notice. Neither Swedbank nor any of its advisers or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents, or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. This document does not constitute an offering circular in whole or part. This document is presented solely for information purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities
- r related financial instruments and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Any offering of
securities would be made by means of a base prospectus that may be obtained from the relevant dealers and any decision to invest in any securities of Swedbank should only be made pursuant to such base prospectus. This presentation and its contents are confidential and proprietary to Swedbank and no part of it or its subject matter may be reproduced, redistributed, passed on, or the contents otherwise divulged, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose without the prior consent of Swedbank. If this presentation has been received in error then it must be returned immediately. The recipients of this presentation should not base any behaviour in relation to qualifying investments or relevant products which would amount to market abuse on the information in this presentation until after the information has been made generally available. Nor should the recipient use the information in this presentation in any way which would constitute “market abuse”. Any securities that may be issued may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), as amended, under applicable state securities laws, or under the law of any other jurisdiction. Such securities would only be offered (i) in offshore transactions to non-U.S. person in reliance upon Regulation S under the Securities Act and (ii) to qualified institutional buyers in reliance upon Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any offering of such securities to be made in the United States would be made by means of a base prospectus that may be obtained from the relevant dealers. Such base prospectus would be expected to contain, or incorporate by reference, detailed information about Swedbank and its business and financial results. Under no circumstances shall the information presented herein constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Any such offer would be made only after a prospective participant had completed its own independent investigation of the relevant transaction, and received all information it required to make its own investment decision, including, where applicable, a review of any prospectus, prospectus supplement,
- ffering circular or memorandum describing such security or instrument. That information would supersede this material and contain information not contained herein and to which prospective participants are
- referred. We have no obligation to tell you when information herein is stale or may change, nor are we obligated to provide updated information.
Swedbank is not responsible for the lawfulness of the acquisition of any securities by a prospective purchaser with regard to any law, regulation or policy applicable to it. A prospective investor may not rely on Swedbank when making determinations in relation to these matters. By accepting this document you acknowledge that (a) Swedbank is not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on Swedbank for) legal, tax or accounting advise, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with the securities in this document, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice, and (d) you should appraise senior management in your organisation as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and risks associated with the securities) and this disclaimer to these matters. This presentation includes statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward-looking statements”. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “expects”, “aims”, “continues”, “intends”, “may”, “plans”, “considers”, “projects”, “should” or “will”, or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy, plans, objectives, goals, future events or intentions. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. They appear in a number of places and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding Swedbank’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, amongst other things, results of operations, financial positions, prospects, growth, strategies and expectations of the banking industry and Swedish mortgage market. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty, because they relate to future events and circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and the actual results, performance, achievements or industry results of Swedbank’s operations, results of operations, financial position and the development of the markets and the industry in which they operate or are likely to operate and their respective operations may differ materially from those described in, or suggested by, the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the operations, results of operations, financial position and the development of the markets and the industry in which Swedbank operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this document, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in subsequent periods. A number of factors could cause results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements including, without limitation, general economic and business conditions, industry trends, competition, prices in the residential mortgage industry, changes in regulation, currency fluctuations. Forward-looking statements may, and often do, differ materially from actual results. Any forward-looking statements in this document reflect Swedbank’s current view with respect to future events and are subject to risks relating to future events and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to Swedbank’s financial position, prospects, operations, results of operations, growth, strategy and expectations of the residential mortgage industry. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made. New factors will emerge in the future, and it is not possible for Swedbank to predict which factors they will be. In addition, Swedbank cannot assess the impact of each factor on its business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those described in any forward-looking statements.
3
Table of contents
1. Executive summary 4 2. This is Swedbank 5 3. Funding 10 4. Swedish economy 18 5. Swedish housing and mortgage market 25 6. Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden 32 7. Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market 40 8. Swedbank’s cover pool 47 9. Summary and conclusion 54
- 10. Appendix
56
Executive summary
- Market position – Swedbank is the largest retail bank in Sweden and the market leader in private
mortgages and deposits in all of its home markets. Approximately 88% of its total lending is
- riginated in Sweden, which is one of the healthier economies among the mature markets
- Capitalization – strong capitalization with Core Tier 1 ratio of 14.9%
- Origination process – stringent credit origination rules with affordability analysis based on cash
flows
- Covered bonds – primary source of wholesale funding and issued through the wholly-owned
subsidiary Swedbank Mortgage. AAA/Aaa ratings from S&P and Moody´s and governed by the solid Swedish covered bond legislation. Recurrent and committed covered bond issuer
- Cover pool – consists of 100% Swedish prime assets with more than 90% of residential mortgages
widespread across Sweden and a weighted average LTV of 56%
- Credit losses – accumulated credit losses in Swedbank Mortgage since 1982 of SEK 7.3bn
4
- 2. This is Swedbank
5
Market leading retail franchise in all home markets
6
% %
Source: Source Sweden: Statistics Sweden (SCB) Source Estonia: Estonian Central Bank Sources Latvia: Association of Commercial Banks of Latvia (ACBL) & The Financial and Capital Market Commission (FCMC) Source Lithuania: Association of Lithuanian Banks (LBA)
This is Swedbank Market shares, Lending
February 2011
Market shares, Deposits
February 2011
- Largest retail bank and fund manager in Sweden
10 20 30 40 50 60 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Deposits Private Deposits Corporate
10 20 30 40 50 60 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Mortgage lending Corporate lending
Swedish retail operations dominate balance sheet
7
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011 * Mainly Russia, Ukraine, Denmark, Finland, USA and Luxemburg
Total lending distributed by country (Q1 2011) This is Swedbank
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Other* 2% Norway 1% Lithuania 2% Latvia 3% Estonia 4% Sweden 88%
Mortgage loans (private+corp) Other corporate Credit institutions Other
SEKbn
8
Financial performance
This is Swedbank
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
Total income distributed by type
- f income, Q1 2011
Lending and deposits 60% Treasury, Trading and Capital Markets 2% Asset Management 12% Payment, Cards 9% Insurance 2% Share of P&L
- f associates
2% Other 13% Non-recurring items 0%
Total Income SEKm 8 452
SEKm Q1 11 Q4 10 FY 10
Net interest income 4 527 4 527 16 329 Net commission income 2 301 2 538 9 525 Net gains/losses 255 315 2 400 Other 1 369 578 2 790 Total income 8 452 7 958 31 044 Total expenses 4 384 4 590 17 642 Profit before impairments 4 068 3 368 13 402 Total impairments
- 970
- 77
- 3 447
Operating profit 5 038 3 445 9 955 Tax expense 1 182 693 2 472 Profit attributable to shareholders 3 852 2 750 7 444
Return on equity, % 16.1 11.7 8.1 Cost-income ratio 0.52 0.58 0.57 Core Tier 1 capital ratio, % 14.9 13.94 13.94 RWA, SEKbn 519.1 541.3 541.3 (FY 2009, 603.4)
Capitalisation – solid to meet risk profile and uncertainties
9
13.0%
Risk appetite (ICAAP buffer, SEK 15.6bn) Regulatory requirement (SEK 36.3bn) Excess capital (SEK 9.9bn)
10.0% 7.0%
Extra buffer due to prevailing circumstances (SEK 15.6bn)
14.9%
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
- CT1-ratio to stay above 13% until 2013
– Perception – Unclear regulatory framework – Uncertain macro economic environment
- Long-term CT1-ratio of at least 10%
– CT1-ratio to stay above regulatory minimum in ICAAP (stressed) scenario – Known regulation – Current balance sheet
- Share buy-back program
This is Swedbank
- 3. Funding
10
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 FY 2008 Q1 2011 FY 201X
Significantly reduced risk level
11
Liabilities*
Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2008 and Mar 31, 2011 * Simplified balance sheet assets and liabilities
Funding
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400
FY 2008 Q1 2011
Assets*
- 114
- 8
+78
- 66
CEE lending Estonia Other corporate lending, Sweden &
- ther Nordic
Other private, Sweden Swedish mortgage loans Central bank + Government guaranteed
+16 +207
- 49
- 212
+13
Senior Covered bonds Deposits Core T1
- Suppl. cap
SEKbn SEKbn
Covered bond strategy
12
*e.g. Registered covered bonds Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011, Nominal amounts excluding intra group items
Funding
Maturity, years
< 5Y 3-7Y > 7Y
Today: SEK ~299bn
Sweden: SEK 300-375bn
Today: SEK ~156bn Today: SEK ~23bn
EUR/USD SEK 150-200bn Other* SEK 50-85bn Sweden SEK 300-375bn >7Y
Stable trend in deposits
- Market leader in deposits in all of the home markets
- Market shares have remained stable in all markets throughout the crisis
- Share of private deposits as per Q1 2011, 60%
13
Deposits from the public excluding repos
Source: Swedbank Fact book, Mar 31, 2011
Funding
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011
Private Corporate SEKbn
SEK 356bn term funding issued in 15 months…
14
- …with around SEK 181bn of maturities during the same period
- Issued SEK 323bn in covered bonds
– 6 EUR-denominated covered bond benchmark deals, EUR 6.5bn – 2 USD-denominated covered bond benchmark deals, USD 2bn – 7 CHF-denominated covered bond benchmark deals, CHF 1.6bn – 1 EUR-denominated senior unsecured benchmark deal, EUR 1.25bn – Increased domestic SEK covered bond outstandings, SEK 50bn
Issued & matured as per Q1 2011
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 40 60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011 2010
(nominal SEKbn)
Funding
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011 interim report and Fact book
Stable short-term funding development
- Replacement of government guaranteed short-term paper
- Increased demand especially in US short-term programs (USCP and Yankee CD)
15
Short-term funding - outstanding volumes Q4 2009 - Q1 2011
Funding
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Short-term + interbank depo Short-term guaranteed
SEKbn Source: Swedbank interim report sand Fact books
Active extension of maturity profile of market funding
16
- Average maturity of all capital market funding 30 months at end Q1 2011
- Average maturity of covered bond funding 39 months at end Q1 2011
– Average maturity of long-term funding issued during Q1 2011 45 months
Average maturity profile of outstanding market funding
Source: Swedbank interim reports and Fact books
Funding
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Total market funding Covered bond funding
Months
Long-term funding maturity profile
17
Covered bonds, equivalent of nominal SEK1 Senior unsecured, equivalent of nominal SEK
- Nominal SEK 121bn in maturities for the remainder of 2011
Source: Swedbank Fact book, Mar 31, 2011
Funding
50 100 150 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Covered bonds
2% 3% 8% 27% 60% OTHER CHF USD EUR SEK
FX - distribution
- 1 Excl. intra-group items
50 100 150 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Senior unsecured Government Guaranteed bonds
SEKbn SEKbn
- 4. Swedish economy
18
- 40
- 20
20 40 60 80 100 120 2010 2011F 2012F
A balance sheet in favourable condition
- Sweden’s financial assets continue to exceed its liabilities
19
General government net financial liabilities
% of nominal GDP
Swedish economy
Source: OECD Economic outlook 89 (table 33), May 25, 2011
%
- Kingdom of Sweden rated Aaa/AAA/AAA
- GDP growth 6.4% in Q1 2011
- Balanced budget FY 2010
20
Strong fiscal position
Source: OECD Economic outlook 89, May 25, 2011
Swedish government debt
Swedish economy
SEKbn
General government gross public debt as a percentage of nominal GDP (Maastricht definition*)
Source: Swedish National Debt Office, Feb 2, 2011 and Statistics Sweden Source: Swedish National Debt Office, May 18, 2011
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sweden Denmark United Kingdom Germany France Euro area
*General government gross debt according to the convergence criteria set out in the Maastricht Treaty comprises currency, bills and short- term bonds, other short- term loans and other medium- and long- term loans and bonds, defined according to ESA 95.
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
%
Solid macro recovery
21
Swedish economy
Source: Eurostat, Mar 8, 2011
Real GDP growth rate
- 8,0%
- 6,0%
- 4,0%
- 2,0%
0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F European Union (27 countries) Sweden United States
%
Solid macro recovery
22
Swedish economy Unemployment rate 2001 - 2010
Source: Statistics Sweden, Mar 31, 2011
Export and import trend per month
Source: Statistics Sweden, March 28, 2011
20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Import Export
Data up until February 2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
as per Q1 each year % SEKm
Continuing recovery of foreign trade
23
Swedish economy
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
45% 13% 12% 11% 11% 8% Engineering Chemistry Other goods Forestry Minerals Energy
Distribution of important export goods
Source: Statistics Sweden, Feb 28, 2011
Top 10 export countries 2010 Current account balance as % of GDP
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 10 12 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
Sweden Germany Denmark Finland Canada UK France Italy US
Source: OECD – Economic outlook 89, May 25, 2010
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
Current account net, Sweden,
Source: Statistics Sweden , May 31 2011 %
SEKbn
%
Sweden has shown resilience through turbulent times
24
5 year Sovereign CDS Swedish economy
Source: Bloomberg, June 7, 2011
50 100 150 200 250 300 Italy France United Kingdom Germany Sweden
Bps
- 5. Swedish housing and mortgage market
25
26
Swedish household financial assets and liabilities
Healthy household balance sheets
Swedish housing and mortgage market
Source: Statistics Sweden “Hushållens ställning och transaktioner“ May 18, 2011 as per Mar 31, 2011
SEKbn
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Total household debt Total financial assets excl property assets
Last data as per Q1 2011
Structural interest rate decline key to affordability
27
Household debt and interest expenses after tax as percentage of disposable income
Source: Riksbanken, Financial Stability Report (2:7), May 31, 201
Swedish housing and mortgage market
% %
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)
28
Housing investments at a conservative level
- New household formations have between 1995 and 2008 exceeded the actual new
dwellings produced by 80,000 units
Housing completions, apartments in Multi-family dwellings and Single-family houses in Sweden Housing investments as a percentage of GDP
Swedish housing and mortgage market
Source: Statistics Sweden, Dec 31, 2010
10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Apartment buildings Single-family dwellings
Source: Reuters Ecowin, Mar 7, 2011 Source: Statistics Sweden, Mar 3, 2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Spain Eurozone Sweden UK USA Denmark
Number of apartments
%
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Average production cost per sqm for a single family house, SEK (LHS) Average price for a single family house, SEKth (RHS)
Housing prices are moving in tandem with production costs
29
Average house production cost & average house price development 1980-2008
Source: “Bostads- och byggnadsstatistisk årsbok 2010”, published Feb 15, 2010 by Statistics Sweden; page 128 and 156
SEK SEK, thousands
Swedish housing and mortgage market
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sweden Norway Ireland Denmark UK Germany
Development of housing prices and mortgage debt
30
Residential mortgage debt to GDP Ratio
Source: European Mortgage Federation
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
House prices
Source: Riksbanken, Reuters EcoWin
Swedish housing and mortgage market
Index 1995=100 %
Swedish mortgage market
- No securitization (on balance sheet)
- No sub-prime market
- No 3rd party origination
- No buy-to-let market
- 60% home ownership1
- Rental market is regulated
– First hand contracts difficult to obtain – Rents need to be negotiated with the Swedish Union of Tenants
- Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se)
– Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc
- Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest
rate
- Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse)
- Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system
31
Swedish housing and mortgage market
1 Source: Statistics Sweden, Dec 22, 2009
- 6. Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
32
Origination process – mortgage loan application
33 Customer START of process Application Initial Risk analysis with recommendation Product incl. prel.pricing Detailed evaluation of cost of living, risk analysis etc Detailed collateral preparation Collateral,property valuation, recommendation Final risk-adjusted pricing negotiation Credit decision Printout, order collateral, payment, compiling credit file etc Signing Printout, order collateral, payment, compiling credit file etc Branch officer "Credit System" Decision making body Back office
11
Price negotiation
Credit origination process - TIME
12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 13
Scoring and assessment
- f internal and external
payment records, income. social data, credit behaviour etc.
Source: Swedbank
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
Origination practices – summary
- Income is always verified
– Direct access to tax authority filings
- UC AB (Upplysningscentralen) – Sweden’s largest credit information agency
– Owned by the major Swedish banks. Supports more than 10 million credit- and commercial decisions annually – The credit information agency also contains track record of delinquencies and defaults – Direct access to full tax authority filings
- Credit scoring
– Is used on all customers with specific score cards for private individuals, SME’s large corporate etc.
- Affordability analysis carried out on all private individuals
– 5Y fixed mortgage interest rate +300 bps, in addition 100bps in amortization of mortgage is applied – Minimum level of remaining cash-flow when all costs are included
- Valuations of single-family houses and cooperative apartments are based on market values. Value
- f a property is collected by an independent data provider and then affirmed by an internal or
external appraiser
34
Source: Swedbank
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
35
Source: Swedbank historical data
- Accumulated losses since 1982 of SEK 7.3bn (as per Q1 2011)
- Main part incurred during the years of 1991 and 1992
- Less than 10% in the private segment
Insignificant historical loan losses in Swedbank Mortgage
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
Credit quality in Swedbank Mortgage AB’s total loan book
- Insignificant impaired loans and credit losses
- In 2010 credit impairments increased due to change in the calculation method for
portfolio provisions in private mortgages
36
- 50
50 100 150 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011 Credit impairments, net Impaired loans
Swedbank Mortgage AB
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
SEKm
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
Swedbank’s total private mortgage loan portfolio exhibits resilience even under extreme stress scenario
37
- With 20% unemployment rate and 10% repo rate, the exposure-at-risk amounts to SEK 3.8 bn
- The potential losses remain low within plausible macroeconomic scenarios
- Potential losses even lower in the cover pool, as only loans with the highest quality are included
Source: Swedbank internal stress tests, May 19, 2010 based on data as per Dec 31, 2009
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
Residential mortgages well collateralized
- The largest regions are Stockholm and the middle
part of Sweden. There are small variations in LTVs between regions
- The mortgage portfolio is characterized by low risk:
90% of the portfolio has a PD of 0.424% or better
- If market values fell by 20%:
– 14.2% of the portfolio would be over 75% LTV – 2.8% above 100% LTV
38
1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 49% 55% 61% 67% 73% 79% 85% 91% 97% 103% 109% 115% 121% 127% 133% 139% 145% >150% LTV
SEK 583 billion
4.7% of portfolio above 75% LTV 95.3% of portfolio below 75% LTV 0.25% of portfolio above 100% LTV
- The portfolio exhibits resilience:
– With a 20% unemployment rate, an increased repo rate with 10 percentage points and a 20% drop in market prices the exposure-at-risks* amounts to SEK 3.8 bn – Within plausible macroeconomic scenarios, the potential losses remain low
- Stress tests indicate an elevated sensitivity to
changes in interest rates in the three largest city areas: Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö
– Higher average exposures due to higher prices, however the effects are to a large extent offset by considerably higher income
Portfolio description Stress tests
Note: Stress test based on portfolio and income data per 2009-12-31. * Exposure-at-risk is the uncollateralized part of the mortgage loans for which an affordability assessment (KALP) indicates interest payments are too high in relation to the household income.
2009-12-31, Private individuals in Swedbank Mortgage including second mortgages in Swedbank. Souirce: Swedbank, March 31, 2011
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% Q1 2011 Q4 2009
SEK 621 bn (---SEK 583 bn)
Growth in mortgages primarily in LTV < 75% brackets
39
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% Q1 2011 Q4 2009 SEK 28bn (---SEK 30bn)
LTV
Exposure with LTV above 85% has decreased even in absolute numbers
- By Q1 2011 the portfolio had grown by SEK 38bn since Q4 2009 to SEK 621bn*
- The portfolio with LTV above 75% has decreased from 5.1% to 4.5%
* Includes First mortgages in Swedbank Mortgage AB and Second mortgages in Swedbank AB
Souirce: Swedbank, March 31, 2011
Swedbank’s lending process and asset quality in Sweden
- 7. Swedish covered bond legislation and market
40
The Covered Bond Act entered into force on July 1, 2004 and is over-sighted by the Swedish
- FSA. Its main characteristics are:
Dual recourse to the issuer and cover pool
Dynamic, regulated pool of assets – frequently monitored by the Swedish FSA via appointment of an independent inspector
Regulated valuation of cover pool assets
The cover pool may consist of certain mortgage credits, public credits and supplemental assets
Maximum LTVs: Residential 75%, Agricultural 70%, Commercial 60%
Maximum 10% commercial loans and 20% supplemental assets in cover pool
Regular monitoring of the property values (reviewed on a monthly basis by Swedbank)
The cover pool value shall always exceed the aggregate value of claims (including derivatives)
A sound balance in terms of FX, interest rates and maturities must be achieved. It is deemed to exist when the present value of the cover pool at all times exceed the present value of liabilities (including derivatives), even on a stressed basis
Non-performing assets in the cover pool which are more than 60 days overdue must be disregarded for the purposes of the matching tests
Holders of covered bonds and relevant derivative counterparties benefit from a priority claim
- ver the cover pool should the institution be declared bankrupt
Holders of covered bonds and relevant derivative counterparties rank pari passu ahead of unsecured creditors and all other creditors of the Institution in respect of assets in the cover pool
The assets in the cover pool, the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts that have been entered into the Register are required to be maintained as a unit and kept segregated from other assets and liabilities of the bankruptcy estate of the Institution
The administrators-in-bankruptcy are then required to procure the continued timely service of payments due under the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts
Overview of the Swedish covered bond legislation
41
Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market
Loan-to-value Ratios and Other Limitations Matching Requirements Benefit of a priority right over the cover pool Administration in event
- f bankruptcy
The Covered Bond Act
Source: www.ascb.se
Administration of the cover pool in the event of bankruptcy
- Should an Institution be declared bankrupt, at least one administrator-in-bankruptcy would be appointed by the bankruptcy court and
- ne administrator-in-bankruptcy would be appointed by the Swedish FSA. The administrators-in-bankruptcy would take over the
administration of the bankruptcy estate, including the Cover Pool.
- Provided that (and as long as) the Cover Pool meets the requirements of the Covered Bond Act (including the matching
requirements), the assets in the Cover Pool, the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts that have been entered into the Register are required to be maintained as a unit and kept segregated from other assets and liabilities of the bankruptcy estate of the Institution. The administrators-in-bankruptcy are then required to procure the continued timely service of payments due under the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts. Consequently, the bankruptcy would not as such result in early repayment
- r suspension of payments to holders of covered bonds or to counterparties to derivative contracts, so long as the Cover Pool
continues to meet the requirements of the Covered Bond Act.
- If, however, the Cover Pool ceases to meet the requirements of the Covered Bond Act, and the deviations are not just temporary
and minor, the Cover Pool may no longer be maintained as a unit and the continuous payment under the terms and conditions of the covered bonds and derivative contracts will cease. The holders of covered bonds and counterparties to derivative contracts would in such case instead benefit from a priority claim over the proceeds of a sale of the assets in the Cover Pool in accordance with general bankruptcy rules. This could result in the holders of covered bonds receiving payment according to a schedule that is different from that contemplated by the terms and conditions of the covered bonds (with accelerations as well as delays) or that the holders of covered bonds are not paid in full. However, the holders of covered bonds and derivative counterparties would retain the benefit of the right of priority to the assets comprised in the Cover Pool. Any residual claims of the holders of covered bonds and derivative counterparties remain valid claims against the Institution, but will rank pari passu with other unsecured and unsubordinated claims.
42
Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market
Source: www.ascb.se
Structure of the Swedish domestic covered bond market
- Benchmark system established in early 1990s
- Tap issuance enhances liquidity and reduces execution risk
– Continuous daily issuance – Buy-backs against issuance of longer tenors – Total issue size often peak at SEK 40-60bn
- Market making at pre-set bid/offer spreads
43
Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market
Source: Swedbank
44
Natural domestic wholesale funding market
Swedish households’ financial assets
Source: Statistics Sweden “Hushållens ställning och transaktioner“ May 18, 2011 as per Mar 31, 2011
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010
Deposits and retail bonds Equities Pension savings and mutual funds Other financial assets
Q1 2011
%
Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market
The Swedish covered bond market
45
Swedish Domestic Covered Bonds Public debt projections 2010-2014
Source: Government budget statement, Sep 23, 2010
- Domestic covered bonds represent approximately 1/3 of GDP and 1/2 of the total Swedish bond
market
Source: www.ascb.se
Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total SEK-denominated outstandings
1168 1119 1189 1 151 1 119 1 071 970 834
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F Government Debt 2007-2014F % of GDP
SEKbn SEKbn
Swedbank’s domestic covered bonds
46
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
SPI 175 SPI 181 SPI 176 SPI 177 SPI 166 SPI 182 SPI 183 SPI 184 SPI 185 SPI 180
2009-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-03-31 SEKbn
Swedish covered bond legislation and covered bond market
- 8. Swedbank’s cover pool
47
48
Rating AAA/Aaa by S&P and Moody’s Total pool size SEK 642.9bn Geographic distribution Sweden 100% Current OC-level 27% Weighted average seasoning 2 57 months Weighted average lifetime of mortgages8 60 months Average LTV 3, 4 – WA LTV on property level (Max LTV) 56% Non-performing loans 5 None Fixed /Floating interest loans 6 – Fixed 36% – Floating 64% Repayment structure 7 – Amortising 54% – Interest only 46% Average loan size SEK 418 774 Number of loans outstanding 1 535 061 Dynamic pool Yes
1 As per Mar 31, 2010 2 Public sector loans not included
3 Index valuation as per Mar 31, 2010 4 Maximum LTV: Residential 75%, Commercial 60%, Forest and Agriculture 70% 5 Past due loans > 60 days are not eligible for the cover pool 6 Floating interest loans < 365 days 7 Property level of cover pool 8 Data as per Q4 2009 (statistics based on the total mortgage book. i.e. not only pool)
Cover pool data1
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
Swedbank’s cover pool
Residentals 91% Public sector 2% Commercial 0% Forest & Agriculture 7%
Cover pool data
49
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
Swedbank’s cover pool Type of loans
North 7% Middle (incl. Stockholm) 32% East 17% West (incl. Gothenburg 20% South (incl. Malmoe) 24%
* Excluding public sector loans
Geographical distribution* Loan size distribution by volume
62% 16% 13% Home owners T enant owner rights Multi-family housing (incl. T enant owner ass.)
91% Residentials, of which…
14% 33% 20% 9% 3% 2% 18%
SEK Thousands
Cover pool loan-to-value distribution
50
Swedbank’s cover pool LTV distribution by volume*
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011 *LTV distribution as defined by the Association of Swedish Covered Bond Issuers (www.ascb.se) 21% 19% 17% 14% 12% 9% 6% 1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 00-10% 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-75%
Cover pool loan-to-value distribution by property type
51
Swedbank’s cover pool
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011 (excluding public sector loans) *
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
WA LTV per property type (property level)
%
Cover pool past due loans distribution
- In total, past due loans represent approx. 0.13% of the assets in the cover pool
- 99% of total past due loans are past due 30 days or less
- Past due loans > 60 days are not eligible for the cover pool
52
Swedbank’s cover pool Past due loans distribution by property type
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
SEKm
200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Home
- wners
Tenant-
- wner rights
Tenant-
- wner ass.
Multi-family Commercial F&A Private F&A Corporate Total all types 46 - 60 days 31 - 45 days 0- 30 days
- Total mortgage loan book of SEK 700bn
Turnover of Swedbank Mortgage AB’s total loan book
53
Swedbank’s cover pool
SEKbn
Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2011
Gross – Net changes in the total loan book
- 100
- 50
50 100 150 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011
New lending Prepayment/Redemption Amortisation Extra amortisation Provisions Net change
- 9. Summary and conclusion
54
Summary and conclusion
55
- Market position – Swedbank is the largest retail bank in Sweden and the market leader in private
mortgages and deposits in all of its home markets. Approximately 88% of its total lending is
- riginated in Sweden, which is one of the healthier economies among the mature markets
- Capitalization – strong capitalization with Core Tier 1 ratio of 14.9%
- Origination process – stringent credit origination rules with affordability analysis based on cash
flows
- Covered bonds – primary source of wholesale funding and issued through the wholly-owned
subsidiary Swedbank Mortgage. AAA/Aaa ratings from S&P and Moody´s and governed by the solid Swedish covered bond legislation. Recurrent and committed covered bond issuer
- Cover pool – consists of 100% Swedish prime assets with more than 90% of residential mortgages
widespread across Sweden and a weighted average LTV of 56%
- Credit losses – accumulated credit losses in Swedbank Mortgage since 1982 of SEK 7.3bn, as per
Q1 2011
- 10. Appendix
56
Funding sources
57
Swedbank AB Swedbank Mortgage AB*
*100% guaranteed from parent company
- Irrevocable
- Unconditional
- Timely
100% owned Program Limit Long Term Global MTN USD 40bn Domestic MTN SEK 60bn Short Term Domestic CP SEK 80bn European CP/CD EUR 6bn US CP USD 15bn Yankee CD USD 10bn French CD EUR 4bn Finnish CD EUR 4bn
Appendix
Source: Swedbank
Program Limit Long Term Domestic Benchmark CB Unlimited* EMTN CB EUR 25bn 144a US Covered bonds USD 15bn Domestic MTN CB SEK 150bn Norwegian Benchmark CB Unlimited* Registered CB (stand alone doc.) Short Term Domestic CP SEK 50bn European CP EUR 6bn * Limited by cover pool size
58
Swedbank – contacts and financial calendar
Jonas Erikson, Head of Group Treasury jonas.erikson@swedbank.com +46 767 6550 88 Gregori Karamouzis, Head of Debt Investor Relations gregori.karamouzis@swedbank.com +46 8 585 930 31 Peter Stenborn, Debt Investor Relations peter.stenborn@swedbank.com +46 8 585 909 30 Cecilia Mattsson, Debt Investor Relations cecilia.mattsson@swedbank.com +46 8 585 907 43 Ulf Jakobsson, Head of Funding ulf.jakobsson@swedbank.se +46 8 700 90 61 Martin Rydin, Head of Long-Term Funding martin.rydin@swedbank.com +46 8 700 90 62 Ingela Saarinen-Kindbom, Money Markets and Short-Term Funding Ingela.saarinen-kindbom@swedbank.com +46 8 700 98 10 Q2 Interim report, 21 July 2011 Q3 Interim report, 25 October 2011 Q4 Interim report, 14 February 2012 debt.ir@swedbank.com www.swedbank.com/investor-relations
Swedbank Group Treasury Regeringsgatan 13 SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden
Contact debt investor relations: For further information, please contact: Financial calendar Postal address: Visitors:
Appendix
58