Conflict Termination and Prevention September 3 - Class 9 Conflict - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Conflict Termination and Prevention

September 3 - Class 9

Conflict Termination

• Over half of all conflicts

end in military victory for

• ne side.
• Those that are not

require other means of settlement.

Negotiated Settlements

• Both sides must
• vercome the

challenge of commitment problems to settle for peace.

Solving commitment problems?

Solving commitment problems?

• Walter: No insurance

against cooperation after war ends.

• Third-party guarantor

required to ensure that both sides abide to the agreement and to prevent cheating.

Walter’s test

DV? IV? What test does she use?

Spoilers can derail agreements

• Spoilers are actors in civil

conflicts that can upend negotiations and ensure conflict continues.

• Ex: Hamas in the 1990s, IRA

splinters in 1998.

Stedman: Three types of spoilers

Limited spoilers -- want specific grievances addressed before agreement is signed. Ex: RPF in Rwanda in 1993.

Greedy Spoilers

Upend agreements to get a better deal. Solution: threaten to end negotiations altogether. Ex: RENAMO in Mozambique in 1992.

Total Spoilers

• Radicals. Don’t want
• negotiations. All or nothing.

Solution: Coercion or elimination.

• Ex. UNITA in Angola 1992

Potential Problems with Peace Settlements

Potential Problems with Peace Settlements

• Used by one conflict actor to gain advantage
• ver another.

○ Ex. Tajikistan, Angola.

• Spoilers could be mischaracterized, either

excluding or including them.

How to prevent conflict?

• Peacekeepers
• Power Sharing
• Power Division

Peacekeeping (Fortna)

• Can ensure compliance or

end ongoing conflicts. Why does peacekeeping appear ineffective? Why does peacekeeping work?

Power Sharing

• Can stabilize post-conflict environment.
• Proportional distribution of:

○ Legislative seats. ○ Administrative appointments ○ Armed forces membership ○ Territorial Autonomy

• Exs: Bosnia, El Salvador.

Power Dividing

• Previous conflict antagonists are delegated

veto roles in government:

○ Rotating presidency. ○ Judiciary or ombudsman delegated to minority group. ○ PM must be from certain group.

• Ex: Lebanon:

○ President is Christian, PM is Sunni, Speaker of Parliament is Shia.

Problems with conflict prevention?

Problems with conflict prevention?

• Peacekeepers have limited ability to stop

conflict recurrence.

○ Ex: Rwanda.

• Power sharing can be subverted by majority.

○ Ex: Tajikistan.

• Power dividing can create deadlock.

○ Ex: Lebanon.

Discussion

What is the most effective method of conflict prevention? Can future conflicts be prevented?

Northern Ireland - Good Friday Agreement

Final Case

Background

• Conflict in stalemate

throughout 1980s and 1990s.

• IRA conducts bombing

campaign of England in early 1990s.

• Tony Blair seeks talks.

Good Friday Agreement

• Agreed to by UK, Ireland, Sinn Fein and

DUP.

• Ends hostilities. Creates consociational

system: both Unionists and Republicans must be in government.

• Equality of citizenship. Devolution of power

for UK.

• Police reform. Prisoner release.

Overcoming Challenges

What were challenges to peace? How were the challenges overcome? What are some lingering problems?

Is the Good Friday Agreement a good model?

Is it applicable to other cases (i.e. Syria)? What are some potential issues with cross- country application?