Approaching national adaptation strategies to climate change in the Baltic States Tallinn 29/30 May 2012 Communication about climate change on the German Baltic coast: Experience and mediated experience Dr. Dennis Bray Centre for Materials and Coastal Research Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht Email: dennis.bray@hzg.de
Two ways we learn about climate change • Experience – this is what we see and feel everyday – the weather, the sea, etc. • Mediated experience – this is what we are told is changing around us, and often explanations why things are changing.
Four parts of presentation 1. The measured experience 2. The stakeholder account of this experience 3. The scientifically mediated account of the experience 4. The implications of interpretation
The Experience: Weather Measurements: Objective Criteria Data from German Weather Office Available at www.dwd.de
Location of weather data collection
January 2000 – June 2011 • Temperature • Precipitation • Sunshine hours • Wind force These are things people can see and feel. Things that they can remember. They are unmediated experiences of nature.
Temperature Jan 2000 – June 2011 Precipitation Jan 2000 – June 2011 2011 2000 2011 2000 RSS = total precipitation in mm TNN=minimum temperature 2m above ground; TNM = mean diurnal minimum temperature 2 m above ground; TMM = mean temperature 2 m above ground; TXM = mean diurnal maximum temperature 2 m above ground; TXX = maximum temperature 2m above ground
Sunshine Hours Jan 2000 – June 2011 Windforce Jan 2000 – June 2011 2011 2000 2011 2000 SOS = total sunshine duration in hours FMM = mean wind force in Bft
Measurement indicates that there has been no real significant change over the last decade that would be obvious to those people experiencing the weather.
Regional political stakeholder accounts
Stakeholder perceptions of weather and change Bray, Dennis and Grit Martinez. A survey of the perceptions of regional political decision makers concerning climate change and adaptation in the German Baltic Sea region. September 2011. Available at http://www.baltex- research.eu/publications/ibsps.html heads of local governments in the German states of Schleswig- Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Gemeinden (municipalities) and Ämter ; typically Bürgermeister (mayor) or Amtsvorsteher (superintendent of an Amt ); 1364 potential respondents; total of 535 unique e-mail contacts for the Bürgermeister and Amtsvorstehers were identified; 789 Gemeinden listed contact e-mail addresses that they shared with other Gemeinden in their Amt. Invitations to participate = 1100 Response rate = 104 (appx. 9%) – in accord with other such surveys
Presentation of results Boxplots: - illustrate the median, spread and data values - lowest and highest values are indicated by ‘whiskers’ - the boxes contain the 50% of total values falling between the 25th and 75th percentile, meaning that 50% of the cases have values within the box, 25% have values larger than the upper boundary and 25% have values less than the lower boundary - length of the box indicates how much spread there is in the data values within the middle 50 percentile. If, for example, one box is much longer than another then the data values in the longer box have more variability - what to look for: location and width of box
How do stakeholders recollect the experience of the past 10 years? What changes do they claim to have experienced?
Are there signs that the following have already happened in the area where you live? not at all very much Perceptions of Change in Temperature warmer summer temperatures q35a cooler summer temperatures q35b warmer winter temperatures q35c cooler winter temperatures q35d Perceptions of Change in Precipitation more rain in summer q35d less rain in summer q3e more rain in winter q35f less rain in winter q35g more snow q35h less snow q35i Perceptions of Change in Seas more coastal erosion q35n more sea ice q35l less sea ice q35m sea level rise q35s Perceptions of Change in Floods more storm floods q35o more floods from precipitation q35p Perceptions of Change in Sunshine Hours more sunshine q35r less sunshine q35q Perceptions Change in Wind Stronger Wind q35k
The common conclusion of regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast, is that everything has changed in the last ten years. It is in interesting to note that some decision makers claim warmer summer temperatures and some claim cooler summer temperatures, and so on. If same person said ‘warmer’ and ‘cooler’, for example, it might be an indication of a perception of more variation. According to the weather records, nothing noticeable to human experience has changed in this decade.
If these changes are thought to be happening, what are they thought to bring?
If they occurred, how would the following environmental changes have an impact in your region? negative no impact positive Change in Temperature warmer summer temperatures q34a cooler summer temperatures q34b warmer winter temperatures q34c cooler winter temperatures q34d Change in Precipitation more rain in summer q34e less rain in summer q34f more rain in winter q34g less rain in winter q34h more snow q34i less snow q34j Change in Seas more sea ice q34l less sea ice q34m Change in Wind Stronger Wind q34k All changes are thought to result in negative impacts Some changes thought to result in positive impacts
Confusion as to changes in the weather. Confusion over the impacts.
Why the difference? This is the power of direct experience versus the power of mediated experience; what we see and feel versus what we are told is happening.
The scientific perception of climate change in the Baltic region. Bray, Dennis. SurBACC 2010: A survey of the perspectives of climate scientists concerning climate change and climate science in the Baltic Sea basin. BALTEX publication no. 48. October 2010. Available at http://www.baltex- research.eu/publications/ibsps.html Sample = BALTEX mailing list (saturation sampling) 700 potential respondents Invitation only on line survey Response rate 19%
The Present How convinced are you that the Baltic Sea region in which you live is beginning to experience the gradual impacts: not at all 1 … 7 very much Climate change Baltic scientists On climate change, all 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q13 scientists are in agreement Climate change German scientists This is statistical change over 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a long period of time Q13 Sea Level Rise Baltic scientists On sea level rise, the German 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q15 scientists are a little more Sea Level Rise skeptical German scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q15 1 7
The appears to be little doubt among scientists that climate change is occurring. However it might not be to the degree perceived by the residents of the area. It seems possible that decision makers incorporate more than science into their perceptions of change – the weather measurements demonstrate nothing that could be recorded by human senses as changes in the weather. So where do the decision makers tend to get their information.
Decision makers’ sources of information How much do you use the following sources of information Very much Not at all Television 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19a Newspaper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19b Radio 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19c Books 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19d Public scientific talks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19e Museums & exhibitions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19f Contact with scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19g Scientific journals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19h Meetings & conferences 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19i Internal working groups 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q19j
NOTE: Newspapers tend to focus on thematic issues while television tends to be event based! Television tends to focus on what is happening. Newspapers tend to focus on the why. When the two sources of information are combined, experience seems to take a subordinate role. So is there a need for a hasty response to climate change?
Scientists perceptions The potential for catastrophe in the Baltic region if we do not do anything towards adaptation or mitigation in 10 year None Very High Climate change Baltic scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q20a Climate change German scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q20a Sea level rise Baltic scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q21a Sea level rise German scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q21a 50 years None Very High Climate change Baltic scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q20b Climate change German scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q20b Sea level rise Baltic scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q21b Sea level rise German scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q21b
Stakeholder perceptions of the need to do something against changing conditions In your region, do you think adaptation measures must be taken immediately some time in the future 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 q24 A sense of urgency
Scientists level of worry about climate change How convinced are you that climate change poses a very serious threat to the Baltic Sea region in which you live? BALTEX scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q12 German sub-set scientists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q12 Not at all Very much
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