Climate change impact assessment on maize production in Jilin, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1

Climate change impact assessment on maize production in Jilin, China

Meng Wang, Wei Ye and Yinpeng Li

2

Backgrounds

 APN CAPaBLE project with focus on

integrated system development for food security assessment

 Bio-physical & Economic  Uncertainties: e.g. GCMs, CO2 emission

scenarios

 Adaptation measures (cross multi-scales)

3 Biophysical Impacts on: Agriculture, Coastal, Human Health, Water Global Climate Projection Local Climate average, variability, extremes (present and future) Greenhouse gas emission scenarios USER Climate and GCM pattern import toolbox Data “Plug-in” Models Impact Model Scenario selections

• Synthetic changes
• GCM patterns
• Land data
• Other spatial data

MAGICC IPCC CMIP (GCMs)

SimCLIM model

4

Case Study: Jilin Province

5

Climate Scenario

 Baseline Climate

CRU global climatology dataset, 1961-1990 (New, 2000)

 Climate change scenarios

• Pattern scaling (Santer, 1990; Mitchell, 2003)
• 20 GCMs change patterns (Covey et al., 2003)
• 6 SRES emission scenarios (IPCC, 2000)

6

DSSAT model – to simulate maize growth

 CERES-Maize model (Jones, 1986)

• Site-based, daily time step
• Input – weather, soil, cultivating strategies,

cultivar parameters

• Output – yield, phenological parameters (e.g.

growing season, growing phase date), etc.

7

DSSAT – weather generator

 SIMMETEO (Geng & Auburn, 1986)

• Input – monthly Tmax, Tmin, Rs, Prec.
• Random seed sensitive

So, the average result of 100-seed simulations

(b) 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 20 40 60 80 100 120 Random seed Yield (t ha

• 1)

Ensemble 1 Ensemble 2 Ensemble 3 Ensemble 4

8

Climate change projections

Precipitation (mm) Baseline 2080 ensemble

9

Climate change projections

Mean temperature (degC) Baseline 2080 ensemble

10

DSSAT – Soil

 ISRIC-WISE soil dataset (Batjes, 2006)

• 5 × 5 minutes
• 14 FAO soil categories

11

DSSAT – cultivating strategies

Scheme Planting manner density: 6 plants m-2 date: controlled by soil temperature Fertilization nitrogen fertilizer (kg ha-1) applied by county Irrigation controlled by the total irrigation quota (350mm) and frequency

12

Calibration – cultivar parameters

 Cultivar parameters

P1, P2, P5 G2, G3

 11-site observations

yield,

sowing date, harvest date

No The initial ranges of 5 gene coefficients (P 1, P 2, P 5, G 2, G3 ) Produce 30 trial geno-types by the uniform design method Yield Simulation Calculate Ie ; Find out the genotypes with the two smallest Ie s The i -th ranges of gene coefficients If (the differences between the ranges of these two genotypes are smaller than 5% of the initial upper range) then The final range of gene coefficients The coefficients are the average of the final range Yes

13

Calibration – cultivar selection

Late Late Early P1 280 270 P2 0.3 0.3 P5 790 700 G2 720 720 G3 8.5 8.5 Early

14

Calibration – 11 sites (1996- 2000)

Site Cultivar Ysim/Yobs Msim/Mobs Changling Late 0.55 0.94 Nong’an Late 0.92 1.03 Yushu Late 0.87 1.06 Lishu Late 1.05 1.05 Ji’an Late 0.94 0.96 Shulan Early 0.87 1.06 Yongji Early 0.99 0.95 Dunhua Early 1.23 1.13 Liaoyuan Early 1.05 1.01 Meihekou Early 0.94 0.94 Huadian Early 0.90 1.00

15

Validation –

Compare with the county census yield (1990-2002)

 Average  Standard deviation

a b

16

Climate scenarios

 Climate change in Jilin Province

• Growing season (Apr.-Sept.)
• Temp.
• Prec.
• Prec/PET

Yanji Tonghua Baishan Liaoyuan Jilin Siping Changchun Songyuan Baicheng Baicheng Songyuan Changchun Siping Jilin Liaoyuan Baishan Tonghua Yanji 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 P/PET=1.0 5 10 15 20 25 200 400 600 800 1000 P/PET Temp (℃) Prec (mm) P/PET Prec Temp

17

2050 Baseline 2020 2070

Results – spatial pattern of yield change

18

Results – uncertainties among scenarios

A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 Baseline Median 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s 2070s 2050s 2020s Baicheng Siping Songyuan Changechun Liaoyuan Jilin Yanji Tonghua Baishan Yield (t ha-1)

19

Results – the probability of yield reduction

2020 2050 2070

10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 50 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 60 60 80 80 80 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 90

40 40 40 40 40 40 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

5 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 10 15 20 30 40 50

Baicheng Songyuan Changechun Jilin Liaoyuan Siping

0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Yield reduction % Probability

20

Results – changes in sowing date

Baseline 2020 2050 2070

21

Results – changes in flowering date

Baseline 2020 2050 2070

22

Results – changes in growing season

Baseline 2020 2050 2070

23

Results – yield and growing phase

Baicheng 54 59 56 53 44 43 41 41 34 32 30 29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s Yield (t ha-1) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Duration (days) Dunhua 66 67 70 66 22 28 47 60 71 68 54 61 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s Yield (t ha-1) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Duration (days) Tongyu 58 56 56 54 43 43 43 43 34 33 30 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s Yield (t ha-1) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Duration (days) Huadian 51 50 51 49 65 61 55 53 30 37 51 65 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2070s Yield (t ha-1) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Duration (days)

Sowing - Tasseling begins Tasseling begins - Filling begins Filling begins - Filling ends Auto Irr Control Irr

24

Results – adaptation analysis: irrigation

Baicheng 2070 2050 2020 Baseline 2 4 6 8 10 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 Irrigation quota (mm) Yield (t ha-1) Tongyu 2020 2050 2070 Baseline 2 4 6 8 10 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 350 450 550 650 750 Irrigation quota (mm) Yield (t ha-1) 25-75th Percentile 10-90th percentile Median

25

 Impacts on maize yield

west & central areas eastern mountain areas



Impacts on phenology shortened growing season in the west and central (especially the reduced grain filling phase)

 Adaptation measures

Increase in total irrigation (20- 50 years) New cultivar with longer growing season (>50 years)

Conclusion

26

Thank You