Climate Change Adaptation: An Australian Perspective Professor Tim - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Adaptation: An Australian Perspective

Professor Tim Smith

Director, Sustainability Research Centre

NZCCRI Seminar Series, Victoria University of Wellington, 13 December 2011

Inter-generational equity Intra-generational equity Poverty Biodiversity Waste Consumption Globalisation Pollution Water Population

“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it”

Saint-Exupery, A de 1952, The Wisdom of the Sands, Hollis & Carter, London (UK Edition).

Antoine De Saint-Exupery

• Complexity, uncertainty and high decision stakes

leading to changes in:

– The science-policy-community interface – Research approaches

Context for climate change adaptation

Climate change: what we know

• Hotter
• Sea level rise
• More extreme events:

– More intense storms – More intense floods – More intense storm surge

Australia is a coastal nation

• 85% of Australia’s population reside within 50km of the

coastline

• up to 247 600 existing residential buildings will be at

risk from sea inundation by 2100 under a sea-level rise scenario of 1.1m*

* Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts Report

Is it really that bad?

Sea level rise is relatively easy ... it’s the extreme events that are the major worry!

Is it really that bad?

Some examples of different outcomes

North Queensland versus South East Queensland Fatalities:

• North Queensland (cyclone Yasi) = 1
• South East Queensland (floods) = >20
• Brazil (floods) = >700

Japan versus Indonesia Fatalities:

• Japan (Tsunami and earthquake) = >20 000
• Indonesia (Tsunami) = >200 000

Understanding vulnerability

• Eg. increased temperature
• Eg. elderly
• Eg. social networks

Adapted from Allen Consulting 2005, after IPCC 2001

Allen Consulting 2005 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra, Australia. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). In: McCarthy, J., Caziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D. & White,

• K. (eds.) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Past science focus exposure sensitivity Adaptive capacity Potential harm Vulnerability

From planning to implementation

Climate adaptation strategy Effective Implementation Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive capacity

• Refers to what is needed to adapt:

– Access to resources – Education – Social networks

Responding to climate change is a social process

Evolution of adaptive capacity thinking

Daffara, P ., Keys, N. and Smith, T . F . 2009, Critical Review

• f

Adaptive Capacity Literature, Report prepared for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility , Brisbane.

Daffara et al., 2009

Dominance of biophysical assessments of climate change Recognition of the importance of adaptive capacity Focus on searching for generic determinants of adaptive capacity Recognition of the importance of context Recognition of the need for case studies of adaptive capacity determinants Emerging discourse of the relationships between adaptive capacity determinants

Conceptual model of adaptive capacity

Daffara et al., 2009

Generic determinants of adaptive capacity Context-specific determinants

• f adaptive capacity

External influences on adaptive capacity

• Environmental change
• Socio-economic change
• May have positive or

negative influences depending on the context

• Often assumed
• Relationships not explored

Drivers of climate change impacts Climate change drivers:

• Wind, sea level rise, rainfall, temperature

Other drivers:

• Population movements (eg. migration)
• Population characteristics (eg. education)
• Economic conditions (eg. ability to raise funds)
• Legislative and policy frameworks

Coastal Population Growth Projections

Australian sea change regions (local government area, State) Projected population change (2002 to 2022) Projected population in 2022 Sunshine Coast, Queensland 80% increase 450,000 Surf Coast, Victoria 71% increase 30,572 Douglas Shire, Queensland 65% increase 17,365 Augusta-Margaret River, Western Australia 64% increase 16,513

Smith and Thomsen 2008, adapted from ABS 2001, and QDIP 2008

Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. (2008) “Understanding Vulnerabilities in Transitional Coastal Communities”, In Wallendorf, L., Ewing, L., Jones, C. and Jaffe, B. (eds.) Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008, April 13-16, Hawaii: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 980-989. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) Population Projections by SLA (ASGC 2001), 2002-2022. Canberra: Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing. Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QDIP) (2008) Sunshine Coast population and housing fact sheet. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, February 2008.

Population at risk in South East Queensland

Risk of inundation from a 1-in-100 year storm surge event:

• Current risk

270 000 people (10% of current population)

• Risk in 2030 without population growth

378 000 people

• Risk in 2030 with projected population growth of 60%

616 000 people

This material was prepared by Xiaoming Wang, Mark Stafford Smith, Ryan McAllister, Anne Leitch, Steve McFallan, Seona Meharg of CSIRO‟s Climate Adaptation Flagship, based on research in the „South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative‟, analysis of readily available information and expert knowledge to provide a realistic assessment of the issues covered.

Illustration of how adaptation can expand the coping range of an activity/sector/species and therefore expand the coping range and reduce vulnerability to climate change

Jones & Mearns 2005

Vulnerability-based Risk Assessment of Climate Change

Resilience framework

• eg. ability to re-organise and renew

Vulnerability framework

• eg. reducing harm

Sustainability framework

• eg. inter-generational equity

Adaptation discourses

Evolution of climate change science

Performance Time Climate change science (1st Curve) Mono-disciplinarity Adaptation science (2nd Curve) Trans-disciplinarity Next shift (3rd Curve) – Resilience science? Holism? A B C

Daffara et al., 2009

Adaptation pathways

Characteristics of Resource Dilemmas

SLIM, 2002

SLIM, 2004

Alternative models of knowledge construction

Post-normal science

• Recognition of uncertainty
• Value-laden
• Participatory

Kuhn, 1962; Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991; Ravetz, 1999

Kuhn, T. S. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz, J. R. 1991, „A new scientific methodology for global environmental issues‟, In Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability, pp. 137-152. Columbia University Press, New York. Ravetz, J. R. 1999, „What is post-normal science?‟, Futures, 31, pp. 647-653.

Post-normal science

Smith 2009 after Ravetz, 2006

Post-normal science Decision stakes Professional consultancy Uncertainty Applied science

Responding to sustainability

• The compass
• The gyroscope
• social learning

Kai Lee 1993; Milbrath 1989; Smith & Lazarow 2007

Lee, K. 1993, The Compass and the Gyroscope, Island Press, Washington DC. Milbrath, L. W. 1989, Sustainable Society: Learning Our Way Out, SUNY University Press, New York. Smith, T. F. and Lazarow, N. S. 2007, „Social Learning and the Adaptive Management Framework‟, Journal

• f Coastal Research, SI 39.

What is being done?

• 1. Australian Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency
• 2. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
• 3. The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship
• 4. Australian Research Council

1. Sydney climate change adaptation initiative (Dept of Climate Change) 2. Coastal Adaptation Pathways Program, Multi-criteria analysis for coastal adaptation decision-making (Dept of Climate Change) 3. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

a) Partner in the Facility b) Lead the Communities Theme of the Marine Biodiversity & Resources Network c) Part of the Socio-economic and Institutional Network d) Co-authored National Adaptation Research Plan for Human Settlements e) Synthesis project: Nature and Utility of Adaptive Capacity Research

4. Australian Research Council Discovery project: Household vulnerability index (Griffith, USC, Flinders) 5. CSIRO Coastal Collaboration Cluster (7 universities, $10m over 3 years) 6. SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (CSIRO, Griffith, USC, UQ; funded by CSIRO Collaboration Fund, DCC, Qld govt, $14m over 3 years)

Examples of climate change projects

Sydney Climate Change Adaptation Initiative

Aim:

• To develop and trial a method for a

systems approach to regional climate change adaptation strategies in large urban areas Researchers:

Tim Smith, Ben Preston, Cassandra Brooke, Russell Gorddard, Tom Measham, Geoff Withycombe, Beth Beveridge, Debbie Abbs, Kathy McInnes, and Craig Morrison

“Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises”

• To study these systems we need to look at:

– Drivers of change – Relays of change – Impacts on sustainability – Management responses

An integrated approach

Systems approaches

• From disciplinary to trans-disciplinary
• From reductionist to whole of ecosystem science
• Ways of looking at the whole rather than the parts

– A language for systemic rather than linear thinking – Building shared understanding of the system Acknowledgement to Russell Gorddard (CSIRO) for some of the following slides

Identifying key interventions

Adapted from Godet, 1994

Godet, M. (1994). From anticipation to action: A handbook of strategic prospecting. UNESCO Publishing.

influence dependence drivers relays impacts

Relative vulnerability mapping

System conceptualisation

System conceptualisation

Horrendagram

Rainfall Heat Storm Surge Storm Water Managem ent Open Space Managem ent Coastline Managem ent Natural Areas Managem ent

Development Control

Urban Planning Health Plan Transport System Plan Waste Managem ent Pollution Control Em ergancy Managem ent Com m uncation Plan Education (Managem ent)/ Capacity Building / Social Plan Weed Managem ent Water Conservation Managem ent Infrastructure Planning Financial Plan Data Collection Carbon Plan Econom ic Prosperity Legislation Fram e Work Lobbying Funding / Grants Bushland Managem ent Neighboring Councils State Govenm ent Policy Sea Level Rise Drought Population Political Will Topography Foreshore Dam age Com m unity Evacuation Disease / Health Im pacts Acid Sulphate Soils Sewage Ecosysem s Flooding

Infrastructure

Financial Im pacts Housing Am enity Social Breakdown Vulnerable Com m unities Com m unity Behavior Strategic Plan

System conceptualisation

Infrastructure Amenity Economic Prosperity Financial Impacts Flooding Community Evacuation (Economic Prosperity) Housing (Infrastructure) Social Breakdown

System conceptualisation

In fras tru ctu re F lo o d in g C o m m u n ity B eh av io r (In fras tru ctu re) N eig h b o rin g C o u n cils R ain fall S ea L ev el R is e S tate G o v en m en t P o licy S to rm S u rg e T o p o g rap h y F u n d in g / G ran ts (S tate G o v en m en t P o licy ) (S trateg ic P lan ) H eat P o p u latio n (S tate G o v en m en t P o licy ) S to rm W ater M an ag em en t D ev elo p m en t C o n tro l E m erg an cy M an ag em en t (R ain fall) S trateg ic P lan B u s h lan d M an ag em en t C o as tlin e M an ag em en t D ata C o llectio n F in an cial P lan H ealth P lan In fras tru ctu re P lan n in g N atu ral A reas M an ag em en t (N eig h b o rin g C o u n cils ) P o litical W ill (P o p u latio n ) (S tate G o v en m en t P o licy ) T ran s p o rt S y s tem P lan U rb an P lan n in g W as te M an ag em en t W eed M an ag em en t

Priority issues

Rainfall Heat Storm Surge Storm Water Managem ent Open Space Managem ent Coastline Managem ent Natural Areas Managem ent

Development Control

Urban Planning Health Plan Transport System Plan Waste Managem ent Pollution Control Em ergancy Managem ent Com m uncation Plan Education (Managem ent)/ Capacity Building / Social Plan Weed Managem ent Water Conservation Managem ent Infrastructure Planning Financial Plan Data Collection Carbon Plan Econom ic Prosperity Legislation Fram e Work Lobbying Funding / Grants Bushland Managem ent Neighboring Councils State Govenm ent Policy Sea Level Rise Drought Population Political Will Topography Foreshore Dam age Com m unity Evacuation Disease / Health Im pacts Acid Sulphate Soils Sewage Ecosysem s Flooding

Infrastructure

Financial Im pacts Housing Am enity Social Breakdown Vulnerable Com m unities Com m unity Behavior Strategic Plan

Development Control Infra rastru ructure

Barriers and opportunities

Issue: Infrastructure Potential impact: (very low – low – medium – high – very high) Capacity to manage: (very low – low – medium – high – very high)

Barriers Opportunities

Aging infrastructure $$ high cost of maintenance and low capacity to fund new infrastructure No standards re capacity required Restricted space and scope to increase capacity / Brownfield Political cutting back S94 funds Uncertainty of science – planning for future needs Topography Some infrastructure would have adverse impacts on the City Forced reliance on other infrastructure provides for institutional barriers, competing interests, legislative inconsistencies Good cross-unit linkages internally New development brings funding opportunities and opportunities to ensure climate change needs are met (S94) Improved Technology, design, higher standards Good frame works for funding and gaining new infrastructure (legislation) Share information with other organisation and councils Innovative thinking New technology to improve environmental

• utcomes e.g. Stormwater reuse

Proximity to public transport though fare to City  Special Levy (to ensure climate change needs are met) and storm water levy

Barrier Number of times cited Community 33 Infrastructure 31 Planning 29 Water 23 Funds / funding 21 Development 17 State 15 Council 12 Political 11 Transport 10 Government 9 Knowledge 8 Flooding 5

Regional barriers

Case study results

• Climate change adaptation is an emerging issue (focus on

mitigation)

• Climate change was usually the responsibility of environmental

divisions within local government

• The role of local government in addressing climate change is

poorly defined

• Climate change is mostly ignored in the process of regulating

development

• There is little understanding within councils about the level of

vulnerability to climate change impacts

• There is an absence of systematic monitoring and evaluation

Actions to build adaptive capacity

Stream Name Description of Covered Actions

“Know Your Enemy” Enhancing understanding regarding existing and future climate hazards and social and ecological vulnerability “Plan for Change” Incorporating climate change into existing and novel Local Government planning frameworks “Get Smart” Implementing education and outreach programs to increase the knowledge of Council and the broader community with respect to climate change, vulnerability and adaptation “Act, Watch and Learn” Implementing monitoring, evaluation and reporting measures for Local Government to track outcomes with respect to policies and measures associated with climate adaptation “Put the House in Order” Developing both internal and external institutional arrangements that build adaptive capacity within and across Councils and other levels of government “Money Talks” Enhancing revenue streams to Councils to assist in financing adaptation and cost-sharing mechanisms to spread the burden among multiple tiers of government

SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative AU$14 m initiative over 3 years

• The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship
• The Queensland State Government
• The Australian Government Department of Climate Change
• Griffith University
• The University of the Sunshine Coast
• The University of Queensland

SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative

From planning to implementation

Climate adaptation strategy Effective Implementation Adaptive Capacity

Building adaptive capacity in SEQ

• 1. Identifying relevant socio-economic patterns and trends
• 2. Historical analysis of adaptation
• 3. System conceptualisation – identifying the perceived

and likely vulnerabilities of each sector

• 4. Identifying the key attributes of adaptive capacity
• 5. Designing cost effective strategies to enhance adaptive

capacity that include institutionalised monitoring, evaluation and learning

• 1. Socio-economic trends
• Population grew significantly (19%) between 1996 and 2006

Trends set to continue (57% projected increase to 2031)

• The growing population, in particular increasing densities in

high risk coastal urban areas, is a cause for concern for climate change adaptation

• Projections also show a doubling of lone person households

and an increase of at least 60% for one parent family households across the region

• 2. Historical Analysis of Adaptive Capacity
• 9 determinants of adaptive capacity across 33 cases

* Complexity * Values * Imagination * Leadership * Technology * Information * Institutions * Knowledge * Scale

• These determinants play out in unique ways according to

context

• Interventions in the personal, technological, social and

cultural domains are required for a whole of system response to climate change

• 3. System conceptualisation

Rainfall Heat Storm Surge Storm Water Managem ent Open Space Managem ent Coastline Managem ent Natural Areas Managem ent

Development Control

Urban Planning Health Plan Transport System Plan Waste Managem ent Pollution Control Em ergancy Managem ent Com m uncation Plan Education (Managem ent)/ Capacity Building / Social Plan Weed Managem ent Water Conservation Managem ent Infrastructure Planning Financial Plan Data Collection Carbon Plan Econom ic Prosperity Legislation Fram e Work Lobbying Funding / Grants Bushland Managem ent Neighboring Councils State Govenm ent Policy Sea Level Rise Drought Population Political Will Topography Foreshore Dam age Com m unity Evacuation Disease / Health Im pacts Acid Sulphate Soils Sewage Ecosysem s Flooding

Infrastructure

Financial Im pacts Housing Am enity Social Breakdown Vulnerable Com m unities Com m unity Behavior Strategic Plan

Community Re Resilience and Capacity

Community Resilience & Capacity Mitigation Planning & Preparedness Response Capacity Recovery Capacity Aware- Prepared Community Apathy (motivation) Adequacy of Resources Infrastructure (coping) Socio- Economic Status Community Support Networks

• 4. Determinants of adaptive capacity (BBN)

60% 20% 20% 80% 20% 50% 50% 50% 50%

• Self-Recovery
• Aided-Recovery
• Proactive
• Reactive
• Manageable
• Overwhelming
• Independent
• Dependent

Conditional Probability Table

Mitigation Planning & Preparedness Response Capacity Recovery Capacity Community Resilience & Capacity SELF-RECOVERY AIDED-RECOVERY PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT REACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT REACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT REACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT REACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT Mitigation Planning & Preparedness Response Capacity Recovery Capacity Community Resilience & Capacity SELF-RECOVERY AIDED-RECOVERY PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT 85% 15% PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT 70% 30% PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT 80% 20% PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT 70% 30% REACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT 80% 20% REACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT 60% 40% REACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT 60% 40% REACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT 50% 50%

Competing mandates

• Australia: Largest coal exporter in the world (35% of

market share=$50bn)

• Coal not exported is primarily used for domestic

energy supply

• Focus on (short-term) economic growth

How can institutions for sustainability compete?

Institutional complexity

Wet Tropics World Heritage Area Freehold Land Provincial Boundary Grazing Land, leasehold Regional Coastal Management Plan

Source: Jenny Bellamy

Environmentally Relevant Activity: EPA Major Rock Wall Voluntary Conservation Agreement Wetland: Code of Practice for sustainable Cane Growing Declared Fish Habitat Area Fish Habitat Code of Practice Works in tidally affected areas Bed/banks River Marine Plants Recreation Area Management Act Coastal Control District Wetland Voluntary Conservation Agreement Sugar Cane: Sugar Industry Act

Nested adaptation

Adaptation Conservation agendas Development agendas Economic growth agendas International agendas Equity agendas

Key questions for scoping the future

• What future/s do we want?
• How do we achieve it? – back casting
• Where are we heading? – current trajectories
• How should we be responding?
• How can we learn to alter and monitor our

trajectories?

Adaptation goals

Adaptive capacity complicaters

Biological mind Biased to: Disconnection Proximity Simplicity Certainty Discrepancy Worldview mind Biased to: Atomism Mechanism Anthropocentrism Rationalism Individualism Contemporary mind Biased to: Efficiency Growth Secularism Narcissism Techno-optimism Psychodynamic mind Biased to: Repression Denial Projection Rationalisation Insulation The unsustainable mind

Gladwin, T., Newburry, W. and Reiskin, E. 1997, „Why is the Northern Elite Mind Biased Against Community, the Environment and a Sustainable Future?‟, In: Bazerman, M., Messick, D., Tenbrunsel, A. and Wade-Benzoni, K. (eds) Environment, Ethics and Behaviour, The New Lexington Press, San Francisco, pp. 234-274.

Learning

Biggs, J. 1999, Teaching for Quality Learning at University, Society for Research into Higher Education & Open University Press, Buckingham.

Higher order learning Lower order learning

theorising conceptualising recognising memorising reflecting applying note-taking

Contextual Learning Framework

Learning type Learning process Learner outcomes System outcomes

Prestructural Not specified

• Misses point

No outcome Unistructural One-way information transfer

• Identifies
• Follows

procedure Information distribution Multistructural Multi-way information transfer

• Enumerates
• Describes
• Combines

Describes system Systems thinking Transformative information

• Compares and

contrasts

• Explains causes
• Analyses
• Relates
• Applies

Improves knowledge

• f system

Extended systems thinking Transformative knowledge

• Theorises
• Hypothesises
• Reflects

Improves system

Smith & Thomsen 2006

Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. 2006, „Institutionalising Adaptive Learning For Coastal Management‟, in Lazarow, N., Souter, R., Fearon, R. and Dovers, S. (eds.) 2006, Coastal Management in Australia: Key institutional and governance issues for coastal natural resource management and planning, CRC for Coastal Zone, Estuary and Waterway Management, Brisbane, pp. 115-120.

Enhancing sustainability

Futures focus Proactive learning Today focus Reactive learning Post-normal science Systems thinking Normal science Reductionist science Transforming data to information to knowledge to impact to wisdom Transition Enhancing sustainability Integration

Smith, T. F. 2009

A neo-research approach to enhance climate change adaptation, In Martin, J. (ed.) Climate Change Responses across Regional Australia: Social Learning and Adaptation. VURRN Press, Victoria

Enhancing adaptive capacity

• Focus often on:

– measuring and predicting biophyscial changes – Developing new technologies

• Meaningless without understanding and enhancing

adaptive capacity