Changes in applied policy measures on energy savings in EU-countries - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Changes in applied policy measures on energy savings in EU-countries before and after the ESD

ECN – Policy Studies Piet Boonekamp ECEEE, 3 June 2009

Outline

• Before and after ESD
• Present policies (MURE)

F t li i (NEEAP)

• Future policies (NEEAP)
• Quantitative changes
• New policy measures

New policy measures

• Role of EU policy
• Observations & conclusions

Energy Service Directive (ESD)

E S i di ti (2006) Energy Service directive (2006):

• 9% energy savings 2008-2016 (fixed)
• End-use excluding ETS energy use
• Contribution from “early action”
• Other obligations
• Supported by other EU policy

National consequences:

• NEEAPs in 2008, 2011 and 2014

,

• Targets for 2010 and 2016
• Evaluations in 2011, 2014 and 2017
• Mandatory monitoring

Mandatory monitoring

• Specific government actions

Before/after the ESD

Before: Before:

• National saving policy
• Limited EU policy (Labels, EPBD)

p y ( )

After:

• More EU policy (Ecodesign, recast EPBD, new EEAP)
• More national policy?
• New (better) national policy?

R l f EU li

• Role of EU policy
• Differences between countries?

Approach (households): Approach (households):

• Before: MURE database 1990-2007
• After: NEEAPs 2008-2016

Policy measures before /after the ESD

NEEAP NEEAP MURE 1995 2008 2016

MURE database on policy measures

Properties of policy measures: Properties of policy measures:

• Sectors: Households, Industry, Transport, Tertiary, cross
• Status: completed, ongoing or planned

Status co p eted, o go g o p a ed

• Period: starting year (and end year)
• Type:
• legislative/normative & legislative/ informative
• Financial & fiscal support
• information/education
• information/education
• co-operative
• taxes.
• Impact (semi quantitative): low, medium or high impact
• Other properties: targeted energy users, actors, etc.

National Energy Efficiency Action Plan

Content: Content:

• Target calculation (in GWh)
• Description of measures:

p

• Specific measures per sector and targeted energy use

(e.g. new dwellings, cars)

• Cross sectoral measures (e g taxes info centers)
• Cross sectoral measures (e.g. taxes, info centers)
• Own government actions (e.g. procurement)
• Saving effects of measures
• Monitoring method (if available)

MURE: ongoing policy measures per type (2007)

40 45 30 35 40 20 25

PM

5 10 15 5

A T B E D K F I F R G E G R I R I T L U N L P T S P S W U K E U B G C Y C Z E S H U L I L V M A P L R O S K S N C R N O M e a n M S M

Legislative/Norm. Legislative/Info Financial Fiscal/Tariffs Info/Education Co-operative Energy taxes

MURE: yearly introduced new policy measures

70

Catch up

60 40 50 PM EU 20 30 P NMS EU-15 10 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8

NEEAPs: policy measures for households

40 30 40 20 PM 10

AT BE DK FI FR GE GR IR IT LU NL PT SP SW UK EU BG CY CZ ES HU LI LV MA PL RO SK SN Mean MS

Total NEEAP-2008+ Not new

Changes in amount of policy measures

Average number per MS: Average number per MS:

• MURE, ongoing up to 2007: 15
• NEEAP, from 2008 on: 11

More policy measures in NEEAP:

• Lithuania
• Lithuania
• Latvia
• Poland

Less policy measures IN NEEAP:

• Denmark
• Finland
• Netherland
• Spain

p

N /di i li New/diverging policy measures

Usual pm (from MURE):

• Most policy measures active for years
• Upgrading of existing policy measures
• Policy measures due to EU

Policy measures due to EU

• Planned policy measures (>2008, NEEAP?)

New / diverging policy measures for:

• Appliances
• Dwelling
• Dwelling
• Supply
• Services
• Control
• General incentives

(in MURE and NEEAP) (in MURE and NEEAP)

New and/or diverging policy measures (1)

MURE < 2007 NEEAP > 2008 Appliances Above-EU policy AT BE GER UK Above EU policy AT BE,GER,UK Discourage lamp FR,IRL ,UK Dwelling Dwelling Above-EU policy (new) AT,BE,DK,FR,GER,IRL, ITA,LUX,SK,UK Spacing of dwellings AT IRL Spacing of dwellings AT,IRL Space cooling AT,SWE Ban on single glazing FR Certificates dwellings ITA SK UK AT GER HUN IRL LV Certificates dwellings ITA,SK,UK AT,GER,HUN,IRL,LV, NL,PL,RO,SWE Energy poverty IRL,NL,UK SLO

New and/or diverging policy measures (2)

MURE < 2007 NEEAP > 2008 Supply CHP AT,IRL,MAL,SWE,UK District heating AT,DK AT,GRE,NL Substitution(oil/electr.) FI,SWE FI,GER,GRE Wood FI,FR,SWE ITA Mandatory solar GRE?,SPA? GRE,ITA Services WCS/EEC BE,FR,ITA,UK BE,DK,EE?,,FR,PL,UK ESCO support FI,GER?,GRE,IRL,ITA, ESCO support FI,GER?,GRE,IRL,ITA, LT,RO,SWE Energy services CZ

New and/or diverging policy measures (3)

MURE < 2007 NEEAP > 2008 Control Smart meters IRL AT DK GER GRE IRL Smart meters IRL AT,DK,GER,GRE,IRL, MAL,UK Maintenance CY Compliance DK SK UK Compliance DK,SK, UK Energy check GER AT,UK Mandatory audits CZ General incentives Tax on energy/CO2 AT,DK,GER,NL, SLO SWE BE,FI,GER,IRL?,LV, SWE? UK SLO,SWE SWE?,UK Fund/credit (international) BG BG,LV,LT,,MAL,NL,RO, SK

Role of EU policy

Other directives:

• Labels for appliances (>1992)

E P f f B ildi (2002)

• Energy Performance of Buildings (2002)
• Ecodesign on products (2005)
• CHP (2006)

National savings influenced by:

• EU-defined
• EU-follow-up

EU related

• EU-related

Present national policy measures in relation to EU policy

12 15 9 M 6 P 3

A T B E D K F I F R G E G R I R I T L U N L P T S P S W U K E U B G C Y C Z E S H U L I L V M A P L R O S K S N C R N O M e a n M S

EU defined EU-follow-up EU-related EU defined EU follow up EU related

Future national policy measures in relation to EU policy

10 6 8 4 PM 2

A T B E D K F I F R G E G R I R I T L U N L P T S P W U K E U B G C Y C Z E S H U L I V M A P L R O S K S N M S A T B E D K F F R G E G R I R I T L U N L P T S P S W U K E U B G C Y C Z E S H U L I L V M A P L R O S K S N M e a n M S

EU-defined EU-related

Observations & conclusions

Observations: Observations:

• Very diverse mix of policy per MS
• Start of (effective) policy: EU-15 > NMS > EU
• Less pm >2008 in NEEAP than in the past (MURE)
• New MS > more NEEAP pm, old MS more MURE pm

N /di i f i MURE i NEEAP

• New/diverging pm: few in MURE, many in NEEAP
• One-third of national policy connected to EU (past/future)

Observations & conclusions

Conclusions: Conclusions:

• ESD stimulated laggers on pm (catch up)
• ESD stimulated some new pm (ESCO)
• ESD stimulated implementation of new/diverging pm
• New pm not a break-through overall (number, effect)

N t ll li ti d i ll MS

• Not all policy options used in all MS
• EU plays important role in national policy making
• EU role on national pm not increasing
• EU role on national pm not increasing

APPENDIX

MURE: policy measures targeted at dwelling uses

20 25 15 20 M 5 10 PM 5

T E K F I R E R R T U L T P W K U G Y Z S U L I V A L O K N R O S A T B E D K F I F R G E G R I R I T L U N L P T S P S W U K E U B G C Y C Z E S H U L I L V M A P L R O S K S N C R N O M e a n M S Envelope Boiler Overall heating Other (VAC) Lighting Envelope Boiler Overall heating Other (VAC) Lighting

A d li l d i Autonomous and policy related savings

Change Volume / structure effects Change in energy consumption Total Autonomous savings energy savings “Policy” i savings

EU policy on energy savings

Papers, directives, programmes and plans:

• 1991: SAVE-programme on promotion of energy efficiency (2003: IEE)
• 1992-2004: directives on appliance labels
• 1993: SAVE directive on energy efficiency
• 1995: Energy tax directive (update 2003)
• 1996: Appliance standards directive
• 2000: Energy Efficiency Action Plan

gy y

• 2002: Energy Performance of Buildings directive (EPBD)
• 2003: Emission Trading System directive (ETS)
• 2004: CHP directive
• 2005: Eco-design directive
• 2005: Green Paper on Energy Efficiency
• 2006: Energy Service directive (ESD)

2006: Energy Service directive (ESD)

• 2006: GP EU-strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy
• 2007: Communication “An energy policy for Europe”

R EU li i Recent EU policy on energy savings

Papers, directives, programmes and plans: Papers, directives, programmes and plans:

• June 2005: Green Paper on Energy Efficiency
• March 2006: Green Paper on EU-strategy for sustainable,

competitive and secure energy competitive and secure energy

• April 2006: Energy Service directive (ESD)
• October 2006: Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: realising the

P t ti l Potential

• January 2007: Communication “An energy policy for Europe”
• March 2007: European Council Action Plan (2007-2009) - Energy

( ) gy Policy for Europe

Europees energie(besparings)beleid 2008

Historical: Historical:

• Green Paper (20% savings in 2020)
• ESD (9% savings 2008-2016)

S (9% sa gs 008 0 6)

• European EE Action Plan (2006)
• Directives Labeling, EPBD, CHP

Future:

• Recast EPBD, Ecodesign directive (eff.normen app.)

St t i E i ( 2008) > 20/20/20

• Strategic Energy review (nov-2008) > 20/20/20
• Present EE Action Plan evaluated in 2009
• New EE Action Plan (autumn 2009)

New EE Action Plan (autumn 2009)

• First ESD evaluation in 2011

EU f i EU targets for energy savings

E S i di ti (ESD) Energy Service directive (ESD):

• 1% energy savings for each year in 2008-2016
• Based on average energy use 2001-2006
• End-use (excluding energy supply sectors)
• Excluding energy use undertakings under Emission Trading System
• Including effect of “early actions” from 1995 on

Green Paper on Energy Efficiency:

• 20% energy savings in 2020
• 20% energy savings in 2020
• Total energy consumption
• Base year is 2005
• Savings additional to baseline (GDP growth prices existing policy)
• Savings additional to baseline (GDP-growth, prices, existing policy)

ECN P li S di ECN Policy Studies

• Area of work:
• Policy analysis and advice
• Energy and related environmental effects
• National EU and international
• National, EU and international
• Mainly for public bodies
• About 60 persons in 6 groups
• Example outputs:
• National Reference Outlook (regularly)
• National Reference Outlook (regularly)
• Subsidy on Renewable Sources (yearly)
• National savings figures (yearly)
• Acceptance of technologies
• Reliability of energy supply

Crude oil prices 1970-2003 (IEA)

Information needs of policy makers

R lt Results:

• Goal attainment > energy trends and CO2-

emissions > contribution of total energy savings, gy g , renewables, substitution Effectiveness > policy contribution to realised

• Effectiveness > policy contribution to realised

savings > interaction, earlier policy measures, rebound effect

• Efficiency > cost-effectiveness of policy measures >

free riders free riders

Overall conclusions monitoring

• we understand WHAT (energy trends)
• we almost understand HOW (contributions)
• we partly understand WHY (effect policies, prices, etc.)
• we scarcely understand contribution separate

instruments

• effects of saving policies are uncertain

Energy savings: autonomous and policy induced Trend without savings

Energy use

Autonomous

Total savings

savings Savings due to Trend without policy Savings due to policy Trend with policy

Base year Target year

Policy effects in integrated baseline Without policies E i ti li Energy use Existing policy Reference scenario Savings new policy new policy Policy scenario Base year Target year

B i i Bottom-up monitoring

Past activities (structural): ( )

• EAP distribution companies 1991-2000 > bottom-up total savings

(households, services, small CHP)

• VA industry 1989-2000 > detailed top-down > total savings

VA industry 1989 2000 > detailed top down > total savings

• VA agriculture 1980-2010 > detailed top-down approach

P t ti iti Present activities:

• Surveys on energy using systems and saving options (households,

dwellings, buildings)

• Databases of subsidized saving measures (IEA, etc.)
• Structural program evaluation (Benchmark, VA-2, GLAMI)
• Studies on government expenditures and cost-effectiveness
• Monitoring CO2-emissions per enterprise for ETS

Problems top-down approach

• Appropriate aggregation level/variables to construct the reference

t d d l l t i trend and calculate energy savings

• Not always focused on specific policy issues (e.g. cogeneration)
• No results on contribution of policy measures

No results on contribution of policy measures

• High uncertainty margins in total saving figures

Definitions on methods (1)

Top-down calculation method: the amount of energy savings is calculated using the national or larger-scale aggregated sectoral levels of energy savings as the larger-scale aggregated sectoral levels of energy savings as the starting point. Bottom-up calculation method: energy savings obtained through the implementation of a specific EEI measure added to energy savings results from specific EEI measure, added to energy savings results from

• ther specific EEI measures.

TD > observed change in energy use BU > action or facilitating instrument

Nationale monitoring & evaluatie

Doelstelling:

• Toename tempo naar 2% besparing/jaar in 2020
• Alle sectoren incl. ETS en energie-aanbod (exclusief

feedstockverbruik)

• Totale besparing inclusief autonoom

Totale besparing inclusief autonoom

Evaluatie:

• Ex-ante: RR en S&Z > 1,7 a 2,3% besparing in 2020

p g

• Ex-post:
• monitoring doelbereik (2%)

l ti b l id ff t MJA EIA HNR S & Z M M

• evaluatie beleidseffecten: MJA, EIA, HNR, S & Z, MmM,

Duurz.akkoord, ETS, ECS, Ecodesign directive

• kosten/effectiviteit besparing(sbeleid)

S f ESD G P d N ti l t t Scope of ESD, Green Paper and National targets

Total energy use use Green Paper National targets Green Paper ESD ESD-early action 2020 2016 2008 2005 1995

Monitoring Energy Service directive

Doel Directive

• 9% besparing voor 2008-2016 > 184 PJ
• Niet-ETS sectoren: huishoudens, transport, diensten,

L&T (deel) en industrie (klein deel)

• Besparing direct of indirect gevolg van beleid

Besparing direct of indirect gevolg van beleid

Evaluatie:

• Ex-ante evaluatie beleidseffecten in NEEAP 2007
• Ex-post monitoring & evaluatie per 2011, 2014 en 2017
• Check van doelbereik (184 PJ) met geselecteerde

cases conform EMEEES methode cases conform EMEEES methode

Scope of ESD and Green Paper on Energy savings

Total energy use use Green Paper Green Paper ESD ESD-early action 2020 2016 2008 2005 1995

Relation ESD and EEAP/GP

G P Green Paper:

• 20% (or 1.5%/year),
• 2005-2020,
• Total energy use,
• due to extra policy above baseline

Energy Service Directive: Energy Service Directive:

• 9% (or 1.0%/year)
• 2008-2016,
• end-use in households, tertiary, transport,
• due to policy measures from 1995 on

C ib i ESD GP l Contribution ESD to GP-goal

Savings 2005-2020 for GP 25.4 units (TPEC 2000=100) Savings ESD 2008-2017 5.4 units Differences

• Scope
• Period
• Base for percentage
• Base for percentage

Consistency in integrating TD and BU results

Top down Bottom-up Top-down Bottom up

+

=> ESD energy savings ? gy g

pgm1

Bild 43 pgm1 Main issue in integration: not adding up (TD) apples and (BU) pears , ESD savings not defined by choice of methods but by realised savings

boonekamp; 2008-10-14

Scope for energy savings: proposal

Volume / structure effects Change in energy use Total effects Autonomous savings Total energy savings Policy Policy measure1 Policy induced savings Policy measure 2

Odyssee

Policy measure 3

Odyssee indicators BU-methods

Scope for energy savings: ESD

Ch Volume / structure effects Change in energy use Total effects Autonomous savings Total energy savings Policy Policy measure1 P li Policy induced savings Policy measure 2 P li

All measures

?

Policy measure 3

ESD savings

Additional measures

g

Implementation of energy options

R i i I l Available Known Restrictions lifted Motivation Imple- mentation

Conditions for implementation

• Option available?
• Niche market, proven, supply constraints

Niche market, proven, supply constraints

• Options known?
• User, decision-maker, supplier
• Restrictions to decision?
• Replacement moment, ownership, etc.
• Sufficient motivation?
• Sufficient motivation?

− Legal, financial, social, etc.

Policy measures and conditions

Table 1: Scores of measure types on conditions for implementation Available (1) Known (2) Restrictions(3) Incentive (4) Available (1) Known (2) Restrictions(3) Incentive (4) Measure type: R&D-stimulation x x x Taxes x Subsidies x x Regulation (*) x x x x Information x x