CARe Catastrophe Modeling Update Session Jed Rhoads May 7, 2010, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CARe Catastrophe Modeling Update Session Jed Rhoads May 7, 2010, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HARBOR POINT LIMITED CARe Catastrophe Modeling Update Session Jed Rhoads May 7, 2010, New York Industry Loss Development Property Cat How long does it take to estimate re/insured losses for major events? What types of

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HARBOR POINT LIMITED

CARe – Catastrophe Modeling Update Session

Jed Rhoads

May 7, 2010, New York

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Industry Loss Development – Property Cat

  • How long does it take to estimate re/insured losses for major

events?

  • What types of events take longest to estimate accurately?
  • Issues related to industry loss development estimation

» Cat Modelers » Brokers » Insurers » Reinsurers » PCS

  • Lessons Learned
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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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For the Loma Prieta development patterns, case incurred at March 31, 2002 is considered to be at ultimate value. No ACRs are excluded. For Northridge development patterns, case incurred (including separately reported ACRs) at March 31, 2006 is considered to be at ultimate value.

Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Mature Events

Hurricane Andrew Hurricane Floyd Hurricane Georges Hurricane Hugo LA Riots Loma Prieta Earthquake Northridge Earthquake Oakland Fires Tropical Storm Allison Wind and Hail Event ‐ 2001 Wind and Hail Event ‐ 2003

Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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Source: RAA Catastrophe Loss Development Study 2008 Edition

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RMS Katrina Industry Losses

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70

8 / 3 / 5 9 / 9 / 5 9 / 1 3 / 5 F i n a l

Date of Posting Loss Range ($B)

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RMS Dennis Industry Losses

$0 $5 $10 $15

1 / 7 / 5 7 / 1 2 / 5 F i n a l

Date of Posting Loss Range ($B)

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RMS Ike Industry Losses

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

9/13/08 Final

Date of Posting Loss Range ($B)

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PCS Loss Development

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% ‐ 100 200 300 400 500 600 Days from event (landfall) Hurricane Hugo Hurricane Andrew Northridge Earthquake Hurricane Georges Tropical Storm Allison Hurricane Charley Hurricane Frances Hurricane Ivan Hurricane Jeanne Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Rita Hurricane Wilma Hurricane Gustav Hurricane Ike

PCS Development.xlsx

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Iranian cleric blames quakes on promiscuous women

BBC News Tuesday, 20 April 2010

  • Women who wear revealing clothing and behave promiscuously are to blame

for earthquakes, an Iranian cleric says.

  • Hojjat ol-eslam Kazem Sediqi, the acting Friday prayer leader in Tehran, said

women should stick to strict codes of modesty to protect themselves.

  • "Many women who do not dress modestly lead young men astray and spread

adultery in society which increases earthquakes," he explained.

  • Tens of thousands of people have died in Iran earthquakes in the last decade.
  • Mr Sediqi was delivering a televised sermon at the Tehran University campus

mosque last Friday on the need for a "general repentance" by Iranians when he warned of a "prevalence of degeneracy".