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Bu Bubb bble ba bath ths and and be better da data

Getting a better understanding of replacement rate for workforce analyses

11 September 2017 Adam Barker: adam.barker@scarlatti.co.nz Hannah Binnie: hannah.binnie@scarlatti.co.nz

Di Disclaimer

2

Access to the data used in this study was provided by Statistics New Zealand under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented in this study are the work of the authors, not Statistics NZ.

Con

• ntents

ts

3

Overview of study Our approach Results I: Dairy Farming Results II: Comparison with other industries Conclusions

4

Overvie iew of

• f study

Con

• ntext

t for

• r this

his research

5

• Lots of organisations do workforce analyses

̶ Tertiary providers ̶ Industry groups ̶ Government departments

• Used to:

̶ Create policy e.g. for immigration settings ̶ Set investment levels in tertiary training

An An ide deal wor

• rkforce is like a ni

nice ce bat bath

6

• Enough workers
• With skills
• With experience

Flows into, and out

• ut of
• f, the

he ba bath th

7

Just one tap (cold water) Bubble bath mix poured right into the bath Bubble bath mix into the cold water at the tap The plug is out Slow, steady heating

Sou

• urces of
• f de

demand in n the he wor

• rkforce

8

Workf

• rkforce grow
• wth (the bathtub needs to be more full)

Skill growth (need more bubble bath mix to get a frothier bath) Replacem emen ent dem demand (water, heating and soap to replace that lost down the plughole)

Wh What t do do we want t to to kno now?

9

• How long do employees stay around for in an

industry?

• How likely are new employees to stick around?
• What age are employees when they enter an

industry?

• How are these answers impacted by age,

gender or ethnicity?

10

Our ur ap approach

Wh What t we are analysing

11

This person works continuously for 10+ years in the industry This person works intermittently in the industry Work

• rkforce at a po

point in n time = March 2008 2008

Illustrative only (not derived from IDI data)

Tenure as a mea measure

12

Time so

• fa

far Time to to go

Illustrative only (not derived from IDI data)

13

Results ts I: Da Dairy farming

Ho How lon

• ng does

does it ta take som

• meone to

to wor

• rk for
• r 1 year?

14

61% 15% 13% 2% 2% 2% 5% Never Exactly 1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5+ Time ta taken (yea ears) Time ta taken to to comp

• mplete

e 12 12 mon month ths of

• f te

tenure in n the he da dairy iry fa farm rming ind ndustry try

1

60 60% of

• f new rec

recruit its s are e ret retained for

• r less

ss tha han one

• ne year

15% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 26% 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10+ Yea ears of

• f ex

experi rien ence Tenure pro profi file e of

• f ind

ndiv ividuals s in n the he da dairy ry fa farm rmin ing ind ndustr try in n 2013 2013 (% of

• f tota

total work

• rkforce)

Ho How mu much ch experience does does the wor

• rkforce ha

have?

15

A flatter r pro profil file = mor more e ex experi rienced work

• rkforce.

Stee teeper r pro profil file e = less ess ex experi rienced work

• rkforce.

Segm gmentati tion of

• f wor
• rkforce

16

“Casual segment” “Core workforce”

Illustrative only (not derived from IDI data)

Replacement t rate

17

A B C

Tot

• tal

l ne net t re replacemen ent ra rate = 𝐁+𝐂

𝐁+𝐂+𝐃

This is the net replacement of individuals with any level of tenure so far. Co Core e net net re replacement t ra rate = 𝐂

𝐂+𝐃

This is the net replacement of individuals that have accumulated more than one year of tenure so far.

Fabricated data for illustration purposes only – this image is not derived from IDI data

Net t replacement t rates in n the he da dairy farming ind ndustr try

18

11.7% 12.0% 11.9% 13.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cor Core e net net re repla lacem emen ent ra rate

Workforce Leavers Recruits 10 20 30 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Size e of

• f cor
• re

e work

• rkforce (000

000s) s)

28.2% 28.8% 28.6% 33.1% 2010 2011 2012 2013

Tot

• tal

l ne net t re replacement t ra rate

10 20 30 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Size e of

• f tot

total l wor

• rkforce (000

000s)

Coh

• hort retention

19

100% 42% 29% 23% 18% 14% 11% 8% 5% 3% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tenure (yea ears) Ret eten enti tion of

• f ind

ndiv ivid iduals ls enter erin ing the he da dairy iry fa farm rming ind ndustry ry in n the he pe peri riod 2005 2005-2015 2015 Thi his s is the he pro proport rtio ion of

• f new

new ind ndiv ividuals s enter erin ing the e ind ndustry ry tha hat t go

• on
• n to

to accumula late e a given nu number

• f
• f years of
• f ten

tenure

Ag Age at first t emp mployment

20

24% 23% 14% 8% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2% 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Age Age e pro profil file of

• f da

dairy iry fa farm rming ind ndustry try entr trants ts App pproxim imatel ely 50% 50% of

• f ind

ndustry ry entr trants s are re ov

• ver

er 25 25 wh when en they hey fir irst t sta start t da dairy iry fa farm rmin ing

Mo Month th of

• f init

nitial emp mployment

21

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Num umber er of

• f re

recru ruits ts into to da dairy iry fa farm rming per per mon month th

22

Resu sults s II: : Compa pariso son n wi with other er indus ustries es

Comparing te tenure pr prof

• files be

betw tween ind ndustries

23

15% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 26%

Dairy iry fa farm rming

14% 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 32%

Be Beef f and nd shee heep

17% 11% 9% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 27%

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10+ Years of experience For

• res

estry ry

Comparing te tenure pr prof

• files of
• f non

non-primary ry ind ndustr tries

24

16% 10% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 27%

Ca Carp rpen entr try

11% 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 36%

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10+ Years of experience Ge Gener eral pra ractice ice me medical l serv ervice ices

25

Con

• nclusions

So

• what

t ca can we con conclude from

• m thi

his?

26

• Tenure is a useful measure of movements to and from

an industry.

• We need a robust measure of replacement rate.
• Retention of new recruits is low.
• A large number of new recruits are aged 25+.
• Further work is required to refine this measure.