ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION Investor Day Presentation May 25, 2016
ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION Investor Day Presentation May 25, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION Investor Day Presentation May 25, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION Investor Day Presentation May 25, 2016 Disclaimer This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed to be forward -looking statements within the meaning of applicable U.S. federal securities
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 2
Disclaimer
This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable U.S. federal securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that Ardmore Shipping Corporation (“Ardmore” or the “Company”) expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, statements about: future operating or financial results; global and regional economic conditions and trends; pending vessel acquisitions or possible upgrades to vessels; the Company’s business strategy and expected capital spending or
- perating expenses; competition in the tanker industry; shipping market trends; the Company’s financial condition
and liquidity, including ability to obtain financing in the future to fund capital expenditures, acquisitions and other general corporate activities; the Company’s share repurchase program; ability to enter into fixed-rate charters after the current charters expire and the Company’s ability to earn income in the spot market; expectations of the availability of vessels to purchase and the time it may take to construct new vessels and vessels’ useful lives are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such a discrepancy include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities of the Company. For more complete information about the Company, the information in this presentation should be read together with the Company 's filings with the SEC which may be accessed on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commerical capability 3
Investor Day May 25th, 2016
Agenda
I. Welcome and Presenter Introduction Anthony Gurnee - CEO II. Overview of Ardmore Shipping Anthony Gurnee - CEO III. Charter Update and Trading Patterns Gernot Ruppelt - SVP IV. Asia Pacific: A Growing Market for Refined Products Al Troner - President APEC(Guest Speaker) V. Demand & Supply Outlook and Financial Review Paul Tivnan - CFO VI. Closing Remarks Anthony Gurnee - CEO VII. Q&A
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 4
Introduction
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 5
Our Company
- Leading public product tanker focused on most attractive sector over the
long-term, strategy based on service excellence and operating efficiency
- Continuing to execute and deliver on commitment to shareholders
- Owns and operates a fleet of 22 “Eco” medium size (“MR”) product and
chemical tankers.
- Effective chartering strategy: value maximisation through opportunistic
employment in spot and time charter markets
- Internal management company and no transactions with affiliates
- Delivering solid financial performance with EBITDA of $18.8 mln and net
income of $6.7 mln, equating to $0.26 per share in 1Q16
- Cost efficient platform delivering significant earnings upside:
- Every $1,000 increase in charter rates adds 31 cents to EPS & Cashflow
and increases the dividend by $0.19 / share(1)
- Attractive dividend policy paying out 60% of net income quarterly
- Strong balance sheet with conservative leverage
1. Realized across a full fleet of 22 ships. Calculation based on: ($1,000 day x 363 revenue days x 22 ships) / 25.9mln shares = $0.31 per share. $0.31 x 60% = Dividend of $0.19 per share
6
Ardmore Fleet – May 2016
- 1. Average age at Mar 31, 2016
Modern “Eco” Fleet Average age of ~4.2 yrs Upgraded for enhanced commercial capability Built at high-quality yards in Korea and Japan Quality fleet = lower operating cost, higher utilization and maximum value appreciation Complementary fleet High Quality Vessels
Fleet List
Vessel Name Type Dwt IMO Constructed Country Employment Specification In Operation Ardmore Seavaliant Product/Chemical 49,998 2/3 Feb-13 Korea Spot Eco-design Ardmore Seaventure Product/Chemical 49,998 2/3 Jun-13 Korea Spot Eco-design Ardmore Seavantage Product/Chemical 49,997 2/3 Jan-14 Korea Time Charter Eco-design Ardmore Seavanguard Product/Chemical 49,998 2/3 Feb-14 Korea Time Charter Eco-design Ardmore Sealion Product/Chemical 49,999 2/3 May-15 Korea Pool Eco-design Ardmore Seafox Product/Chemical 49,999 2/3 Jun-15 Korea Pool Eco-design Ardmore Seawolf Product/Chemical 49,999 2/3 Aug-15 Korea Pool Eco-design Ardmore Seahawk Product/Chemical 49,999 2/3 Nov-15 Korea Pool Eco-design Ardmore Endeavour Product/Chemical 49,997 2/3 Jul-13 Korea Spot Eco-design Ardmore Seafarer Product/Chemical 45,744 3 Aug-04 Japan Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Seatrader Product 47,141 — Dec-02 Japan Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Seamaster Product/Chemical 45,840 3 Sep-04 Japan Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Seamariner Product 45,726 — Oct-06 Japan Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Sealeader Product 47,463 — Aug-08 Japan Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Sealifter Product 47,472 — Jul-08 Japan Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Dauntless Product/Chemical 37,764 2 Feb-15 Korea Pool Eco-design Ardmore Defender Product/Chemical 37,791 2 Feb-15 Korea Pool Eco-design Ardmore Centurion Product/Chemical 29,006 2 Nov-05 Korea Spot Eco-mod Ardmore Cherokee Product/Chemical 25,215 2 Jan-15 Japan Pool Eco-design Ardmore Cheyenne Product/Chemical 25,217 2 Mar-15 Japan Time Charter Eco-design Ardmore Chinook Product/Chemical 25,217 2 Jul-15 Japan Time Charter Eco-design Ardmore Chippewa Product/Chemical 25,217 2 Nov-15 Japan Time Charter Eco-design Total 22 934,797 4.2(1)
7
Consistent and Focused Strategy
- Acquire vessels at cyclical lows: low cash
breakeven and maximum ship value appreciation
- Operate and maintain vessels efficiently
- Low overhead at approx. $1,500 per ship /
day
Cost Efficiency
- Time charter and spot employment - mix
adjusted to maximize TCE
- 2Q16: Spot 75% v Time Charter 25%
- Maintain close dialogue with charterers at
all times for time-charter opportunities
- Maintain a high-quality, fuel efficient fleet
- Exploit the product and chemical overlap
- Close operational collaboration with
charterers: service excellence
- Optimise voyage performance: maximise
TCE
Highly Effective Chartering Strategy
2 Superior Operational And Financial Performance 3
Consistent Focus on MR Product and Chemical Tankers
1
Value Added Service = Max Earnings
4
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 8
Charter Update and Trading Patterns
9
Chartering Profile
Revenue Day Estimates 2Q16(1) Fleet Employment Profile
1. Includes estimated drydock days for 2Q16
31% 69%
1Q 2016
25% 75%
2Q 2016 E
Vessel Employment TC Expiry Ardmore Seavantage Time Charter Jan-17 Ardmore Seavanguard Time Charter Feb-17 Ardmore Cheyenne Time Charter Mar-17 Ardmore Chinook Time Charter Jul-16 Ardmore Chippewa Time Charter Nov-16 Ardmore Seavaliant Spot n/a Ardmore Seaventure Spot n/a Ardmore Endeavour Spot n/a Ardmore Seafarer Spot n/a Ardmore Sealifter Spot n/a Ardmore Sealeader Spot n/a Ardmore Seatrader Spot n/a Ardmore Seamaster Spot n/a Ardmore Seamariner Spot n/a Ardmore Centurion Spot n/a Ardmore Sealion Pool n/a Ardmore Seafox Pool n/a Ardmore Seawolf Pool n/a Ardmore Seahawk Pool n/a Ardmore Dauntless Pool n/a Ardmore Defender Pool n/a Ardmore Cherokee Pool n/a
622 519 273 91 182 273 59 MR Eco-design MR Eco-mod Prod/Chem Eco-design Prod/Chem Eco-mod Spot / Pool TC Days
10
Charter Market Active Heading into Summer
1. Time Charter Equivalent (“TCE”) daily rate is the gross charter rate or gross pool rate, as appropriate, per revenue day plus Communication Victualing and Entertainment Income (“CVE). For vessels employed on voyage charters, TCE is the net rate after deducting voyage
Time Charter Equivalent ($ / day)(1)
+27% YoY +20% YoY +37% YoY +18% YoY
- Strong MR spot performance of $21,548 / day in 2015
- Fleet earnings steady in 1Q16 (flat quarter on quarter - 1Q16 v 1Q15)
- Refinery utilization recovering and expecting strong gasoline demand
17,149 17,806 19,020 16,599 12,228 17,131 18,038 17,833 17,367 12,499 18,309 19,149 20,223 17,507 13,417
- AVG. FLEET TCE
MR ECO-DES MR ECO-MOD PROD/CHEM ECO-DES PROD/CHEM ECO-MOD 1Q15 1Q16 FY 2015
11
Regional Presence in Key Global Markets
12
Extensive Global Customer Base
Strong support from key players through consistent track record in commercial and operational performance
13
Key Market Movers in 2015
Strong inter-regional movements between West and East
14
Freight Trends in 2016
Mixed Aromatics into China
15
Freight Trends in 2016
West Africa Imports
16
Freight Trends in 2016
Exports from Asia to American markets
17
Freight Trends in 2016
Strong Import Demand from Australia and New Zealand
18
Freight Trends in 2016
Strong Activity Within Asia due to Regional Arbitrage
19
Freight Trends in 2016
Long-Haul Trades into East and South Africa
20
Freight Trends in 2016
Brazil Becoming a Two-Way Trade
21
Freight Trends in 2016
North American Driving Demand Keeping Classic TA Route Busy
22
Freight Trends in 2016
Distillate Finding Markets in Multiple Locations and Necessitating Strong Trading Flexibility
23
Freight Trends in 2016
MR Segment Continues to Evolve and Benefit from Structural Demand and Global Arbitrage Opportunities
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 24
Asia Pacific: A Growing Market for Refined Products
Ship Me Somewhere East of Suez
Asian Growth: Still Key to Global Products Demand
Al Troner, President Asia Pacific Energy Consulting (APEC) Houston, Texas Tel/Dir: (281) 759 4440 Email: apenergy@apecconsulting.com
25
Contents
- Asia Pacific – An Overview
- Refining and Product Exports
- Downstream
- Product Trade and Shipping
- Thoughts & Conclusions
26
Asia Pacific – An Overview
27
Asia Pacific in World Demand
- Since 1995, has led world demand growth
- Recessions staggered, not stopped, growth
- Import-dependent, crude & product
- Demand, absolute/relative, led by China
28
Asia Pacific Crude Demand
- Continued expansion 1995-2015
- Refinery sophistication ranged widely
- Regional crude waxy/sweet
- Refiners had low sulfur ceiling
- Preferred mid/heavy crudes
29
Asia Pacific Product Demand (2014)
- China by far the largest single market
- Focus traditionally mid-barrel
- Diesel, not gasoline, top transport fuel
- Biggest user of petrochemical naphtha
- Singapore focus transport fuels, bunker
30
Asia Pacific Product Demand (2014)
31
China Share of Asia Pacific Demand (2014)
32
Illusionary Appearances: Oil
- Present price slump simply cyclical
- Too much supply focus
- Too little demand focus
- Crude/Products: Differing drivers
33
Illusionary Appearances: Oil/Shipping
- Crude price a poor shipping barometer
- Demand often shifts to product imports
- Crude: Short-haul usually wins in the end
- Product: Long-haul often competitive
- Shifts in oil basics support products trade
34
Prices Not Always Lockstep ($/BBL)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence, Energy Intelligence Group
35
Jan Feb Mar Brent
$31.10 $31.93 $38.06
0.1%S Diesel (NW Europe)
$37.34 $44.27 $50.64
Naphtha FOB (Singapore)
$36.46 $33.68 $38.91
Refining and Product Exports
36
Refining & Exports
- India export-oriented refining
- China now shifting to exports
- Asia still leads refinery add-ons
- Refineries gaining complexity
- “Export anywhere” plants, i.e. Reliance
37
Refinery Trends/1
- Refinery Migration; Europe closing shop
- Asia expansion shifting
- Big closures: Japan & Australia
- Offset by India, China
38
Refinery Additions/Closures (2016-18)
Note: All values in MBD
39
- No. Of
Refineries Base Capacity Severe Secondary China
N/A 3,204 1,089
India
N/A 470 378
France
3 619 187
Germany
3 396 343
UK
3 416 187
China/India Additions European Refineries at Risk (min)
Refinery Trends/2
- Africa & Latin America short refining
- Quantity short (Mexico)
- Quality squeeze (Brazil)
- US products boom needs tankers
40
Pemex/Mexico “Expansion” Plans
Refinery = Grassroots; CDU = Crude Distillation Unit; VDU = Vacuum Distillation Unit; HDS = Hydrodesulfurization, Gas
- il or Residual
*Projected date for Coker only
41
Plant Refinery CDU VDU HDS Coker When Minatitlan
150 150 25
2018? Guanajuato
250
Post 2020 Salamanca
38
2016 Tula
250 166
2019- 2020?* Cadereyta
42
2017 Ciudad Madero
42
2017 Salina Cruz
25
2017
Downstream
42
Asian Downstream Detailed
- State companies dominate refining
- Asia Markets: Price controls; retail subsidies
- Mideast exporters seek outlets, Jubail, Yanbu
& Al Ruwais
- Quality premiums; seeking developed country
markets
- Wide-ranging quality specifications
43
More Complex Asian Product Market
- Imports: Naphtha, Jet/Kero, Residual, LPG
- Exports: Gasoline, Gas Oil/Diesel
- Exporters: Singapore, S. Korea, India, now China
- Crude imports preferred
44
India Export Drive Still Accelerating
Note: All values rounded to MBD * Indian fiscal year ends March 31st
45
Product YE Mar16* QE Mar16* LPG 274 272 Gasoline 376 436 Naphtha 96 111 Kero/Jet 95 98 GO/Diesel 595 706 Fuel Oil 28 9 TOTAL 1,464 1,632
Oil Shifts Support Clean Shipping/1
- Demand will recover in Europe & Latin America
- The Great Lie: “Euro-X” standards
- AP demand remains world pace-setter
- AP refining mismatched for demand
46
India 2015 “Euro-Spec” vs. EU Euro-IV
T-95 is Temperature at which 95 vol% distills; PAH = Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons
47
Sulfur %mass (max) Cetane Density T-95* PAH
Urban Rural (Index) (max) (Deg C max) (%max) India
0.005 0.035 51 0.82- 0.845 360 11
EU
0.001 0.001 51 0.845 360 8
Oil Shifts Support Clean Shipping/2
- AP emerging as product exporter
- Yet requires product imports
- Mideast export refining expanding
- Iran’s expanding role
48
China Product Exports
Notes: Numbers within parentheses indicate a net import volume; Volumes in MBD
49
CY 2014 1Q 2016 % change
LPG (173.9) (415.6) 239.0% Gasoline 118.0 160.4 35.9% Naphtha (82.5) (184.3) 223.4% Kero/Jet 140.0 124.5
- 15.5%
GO/ADO 70.9 196.6 277.3% Fuel Oil (46.9) (85.7) 82.7%
Product Quality
- Size varies: China (10MMBD); Brunei (22MBD)
- Quality varies: (Pakistan Diesel 0.25%S, Japan
(0.001%S)
- Progressive spec tightening
- No central quality authority
50
Selected Asian Refining Capacity*
Note: Volumes in MBD * As at 1/2015; ** For China, only counting plants of >40 MBD base capacity
51
Size Giant Large Minimal Country China** Singapore Brunei
- No. of Refineries
112 5 1
Base Capacity
17,266 1,481 12
Severe Secondary
10,783 178
Hydrocracking
2,261 80
Pricing/Subsidies
- Free markets: Japan, Singapore, Australia, NZ
- All others have some price controls
- Now abolishing/cutting retail subsidies
- Price reform slow, but continuing
- Demand will shift but not decline
52
The Nature of Product Quality/1
- Quality only improves; one – directional
- Improving quality is progressive
- Specification tightening is cumulative
53
Recent Reduced Retail Subsidies
(By Market & Product)
54
Country India Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Pakistan LPG
X
Gasoline
X X X X X
GO/Diesel
X X X X X
Fuel Oil
X
Product Trade and Shipping
55
Shipping, Refining & Quality
- Boosts clean trade on quality deltas
- Boosts extra-regional arbitrage
- Clean trade: more vessels, more routes
- Products trade truly global
- Export trade hinges on quality
56
Asian Product Improvement
- Groups: OECD, NIC & Developing Asia
- Japan led world in 2000; fallen behind
- Gap between OECD and rest now smaller
- China has overtaken India on quality
- Cutting subsidies often raises quality
57
Panama Canal & Gasoline Trade
- Liquid tankers limit 150,000 DWT
- Economy of scale vs. lumpiness
- Gasoline demand growth exceeding diesel
- Many gasoline grades; component needs
- Singapore: Blending activity rising
58
Emerging US/Asia Yin Yang
- US structural supply overhang …
- … Complemented by Asia import needs
- Drop in US crude will not change
- Panama Canal will expand trade
59
US Product Exports
- US has become largest product exporter
- US soon to become largest NGL exporter
- US has become largest gasoline exporter
- USGC a supply prop to Europe
- Atlantic almost saturated; Pacific beckons
60
US Gross Product Exports (Selected Products Only)
Note: Volumes in MBD
61
CY 2015 Jan-Feb 2016
Gasoline
618 802
Kero/Jet
182 213
Gas Oil/Diesel
1,186 944
Product Export Competition
- Bad for oil; good for shipping
- New Mideast export refineries (Jubail, Yanbu
& Al Ruwais)
- Total already planning Jubail expansion
- Iran still yet to enter the game
- Asian exports search for new markets
62
China: The Asian Product Mismatch/1
- China >40% regional GO/Diesel demand
- Gas Oil/Diesel was king; now stagnant
- Large part of “Diesel” actually Gas Oil
- China 2015: Gasoline growth 8-9%; Diesel 1-
2%
- Desire for car ownership unsated
63
China: The Asian Product Mismatch/2
- Chinese refineries geared to mid-barrel
- 3.5 MM B/D gas oil output more than most
total markets
- To meet gasoline needs, produces excess gas
- il
- Also more petrochemical naphtha needed
- Shift to light demand forcing Chinese exports
64
The Asian Product Mismatch/3
- Same trend to light products across Asia
- Demand giants also maturing in growth
- Reduced subsidies shift demand growth
- Encouraging products trade over more
refining
65
AP Demand vs Refinery Capacity (2014)
66
Demand
Units MBD Vol% Light Products 12,641 45.2 Mid-Distillate 10,778 38.6 Sub Total 23,419 83.8
TOTAL
28 MMBD 100%
Refinery Working Capacity
Type MBD Total Severe Secondary 15,072 Hydrocracking (HDC) Only 4,011 HDC% of Severe 26.6
Total Base Capacity
37,919
Demand for Light Products while refining capacity geared to Middle Distillate
Pure Independent Trader Trends
- Vitol no longer alone as sophisticated trader
- New rivals: Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria, Gunvor
- All active in all global markets
- Capable in wet & futures trade
- Focusing on increased arbitrage
- Impact: Increasing arbitrage using clean tankers
67
Clean Shipping Upbeat
- Tanker miles more than double oil demand
growth
- Clean makes up 36% of tanker traffic and
rising
- Limited correlation: oil price/shipping activity
- Clean tanker share will continue to increase
- Wide product specs & drive to better quality
supports more trade
68
Thoughts and Conclusions
69
Conclusions/1
- Limited correlation between oil price & shipping
needs
- Asia Pacific remains demand growth leader
- Shift to gasoline use will increase overall clean
shipping activity
- Basic mismatch between Asia refining & demand
- Gasoline growth outpacing diesel in Asia
70
Conclusions/2
- Better quality supports more clean tanker trade
- East of Suez product exports ballooning
- East of Suez exporters need more clean shipping
- Rising arbitrage from pure trading companies
- Emerging “Yin-Yang” in US/Asia products trade
71
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 72
Demand & Supply Outlook and Financial Review
95.5 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.5 101.0
2015 2016e 2017e 2018e MMbpd
73
Demand: Seaborne Volumes Growing at 4% CAGR
+27% YoY +18% YoY
Estimate of 2016 Seaborne Imports / Exports(1) Seaborne Volume of Oil Products Traded(1)
1. Source: Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network, forecast for 2016 according to Clarkson’s data 2. Source: IEA Medium Term Market Report 2016 and management estimates
Import Export Net Imports as % Total Exports as % Total Middle East 1.4 2.8 1.4 6.1% 12.1% North America 1.8 3.2 1.4 7.8% 13.9% China 0.6 0.6 0.0 2.6% 2.6% Asia (ex China) 8.0 5.7
- 2.3
34.6% 24.7% Europe 7.2 6.0
- 1.2
31.2% 26.0% Latin America 1.8 0.6
- 1.2
7.8% 2.6% Africa 1.4 0.4
- 1.0
6.1% 1.7% FSU n/a 3.1 n/a n/a 13.4% Other 0.9 0.7
- 0.2
3.9% 3.0% Total Trade MMbpd 23.1 23.1 100% 100% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e MMbpd CAGR +4%
- Seaborne volume of products growing at ~4% CAGR
driven by refinery expansion and increased output
- Major trading regions are: Europe, Asia, North America
and Middle East
- China not really a player in refined products import /
export until late 2015 – significant increases in distillate exports Global Refinery Capacity Additions (2)
+1.1mbd +1.4mbd +1.3mbd
74
Demand: Refinery Dislocation Increasing Voyage Distances
Global Refinery Developments (2015-2020) (1) Global Refinery Capacity Growth (2)
1. Source: IEA Medium Term Market Report 2015 and management estimates 2. Source: IEA Medium Term Market Report 2016 and management estimates
- IEA forecasting ~7.7 million bpd in additional refinery
capacity by 2021
- ~1.1 million bpd of new refining capacity expected to
come on stream in 2016 resulting in net capacity growth of ~0.5 million bpd
- United States +400kbd (primarily PADD3)
- China +327kbd / Middle East +306kbd
- Europe -258kbd / Japan -318kbd
- Increasing diesel exports from China driving trade
- Refinery margins remain strong, particularly for
gasoline, resulting in higher outputs worldwide
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 OB as % Fleet Million DWT Fleet (DWT) Orderbook (% Fleet)
75
Supply: Orderbook at Historical Lows
MR Product Tanker Orderbook and Fleet Development(1)
- MR orderbook currently at ~8.1% of the fleet, which is the lowest level since 2001:
- ~45 MR’s delivered and 12 MR’s scrapped YTD
- Est. 70 MRs to deliver through remainder of 2016 resulting in net fleet growth of ~4.5% for year(2)
- Orderbook expected to be ~5% of the fleet by year end 2016(3)
1. Source: Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network and Management Estimates 2. Based on management estimates 3. Assumes no new orders placed in 2016
Currently ~8.1%
- 1.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Growth % Number of Ships Supply Shortfall Vessel Deliveries Scrapping Demand Growth Net Fleet Growth %
76
Deliveries Reducing: Demand to Exceed Supply in Late 2016
- Demand growth of 5.5% equates to required fleet growth (after scrapping) of 11 MR’s per month
- Delivery schedule reduces in late 2016 at which point demand will exceed supply
1. Source: Clarksons World Fleet Register, forecast based on management estimates
Vessel Demand Exceeding Supply
MR Product Tanker Vessel Delivery Schedule(1)
5% - 6% Demand Growth
77
Scrapping Set to Continue: ~25 Ships Per Year
+27% YoY +20% YoY +37% YoY +18% YoY
1. Source: Clarksons World Fleet Register (MR Product Tanker Fleet 25,000 – 59,999 DWT)
MR Tanker Profile(1)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1977-1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Number of Vessels
>20 years old:167 MRs (~8% Fleet) >15 years old: 358 MRs (~18% Fleet)
4 4 3 6 7 5 4 2 2 5 7 2 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2008 2015
Number of Years to Deliver at Least One MR Tanker
China Korea Japan Other
78
Supply Constrained: Shipyard Capacity Reduced
+20% YoY +37% YoY +18% YoY
Shipyard Capacity(1)
- Shipyard capacity significantly reduced to ~40% of
2008 levels(2) (20 yards in 2008 v 12 in 2015)
- Tier I Yards (Volume):
- Hyundai Mipo (South Korea)
- SPP (South Korea)
- STX (South Korea)
- Tier II Yards (Volume):
- Sungdong (South Korea)
- Onomichi (Japan)
- CSSC Offshore Marine (China)
- Increasing regulations resulting in increased newbuild
cost
- Tier 3 Engines NOX Tier II / Tier III
- Noise Abatement
- Sulphur Emissions
1. Source: Clarksons World Fleet Register, forecast based on management estimates 2. Based on number of yards to deliver at least one MR Product Tanker in 2008 and 2015 and management estimates
- 40%
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 79
Financial Review
- Delivered record earnings in 2015 driven by strong charter market
and timing of deliveries
- Net income of $32 million
- Avg MR TCE of ~$20,000 / day
- Continuing to build value with strong financial performance in
1Q16 with EPS of $0.26
- Clean and transparent corporate structure with continued focus
- n cost efficiency
- Fully funded with conservative leverage and strong liquidity
position
- Debt refinancing in 1Q16 reduced interest expense and extended
debt maturities to 2022 with additional committed debt for further growth
- Continuing our strong track record of execution and value creation
as a public company
80
1. Data sourced from most recent public filings 2. Source: CEFOR (Nordic Association of Marine Insurers)
Average OPEX ($ / day)(1)
+27% YoY +20% YoY +37% YoY +18% YoY 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Ardmore
- Co. A
- Co. B
- Co. C
Transparent and Low Cost Corporate Structure
- Transparent corporate structure with low cost operations and no transactions with affiliates
- High quality fleet built in Japan and South Korea ensures low operating cost and asset value maximization
- Recent research highlighted high proportion of insurance claims on Chinese built vessels(2)
Vessel Type TCE per day TCE per day TCE per day MR Product (50k) $18,500 $21,500 $24,250 MR Chem (25-37k) $16,500 $17,500 $18,000
81
Every $1,000 / day increase in rates equals 31 cents per share in EPS and Cashflow & dividend increase
- f $0.19 / share(2)
Earnings Per Share(1)
1. Management estimates based on a full fleet of 22 vessels operating in the spot market for 363 revenue days / ship 2. Realized across a full fleet of 22 ships. Calculation based on: ($1,000 day x 363 revenue days x 22 ships) / 25.9 mln shares = $0.31 per share. $0.31 x 60% = Dividend of $0.19 per share
Dividend Per Share(1)
Revenue Days Increasing and Significant Earnings Power
- Revenue days increasing by 16% in full year 2016
- Efficient operations resulting in significant earnings power and dividends
$1.12 $1.83 $2.46 $0.67 $1.10 $1.47
Base Rates Rates FY2015 Upside Rates - 3Q15
82
Strong Balance Sheet with Conservative Capital Structure
- Fully funded with strong liquidity position
- Low corporate leverage: ~55% as at Mar 31, 2016
- Sale of Ardmore Calypso and Ardmore Capella will reduce debt by $26.7 million in 2Q16
- Recent refinancing of $382 million of debt reduced interest expense and extended maturities to 2022
- Debt is amortizing at ~$38 mln per year (No non-amortising debt) accreting significant value to shareholders
Debt Profile
1. Gross Debt excludes impact of netting of deferred finance fees as required under US GAAP ($424.3 mln - $12.1 mln = $412 mln) 2. Capital Lease Obligation of $26.7 mln excludes netting of deferred finance fees as required under US GAPP ($26.7 mln - $0.5 mln = $26.3 mln)
$397.6 $692.8 $26.7 $9.4 $9.4 $9.4 Vessel Assets @ 1Q16 Gross Debt @ 1Q16 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 Senior Debt Repayments
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 83
Closing Remarks
Modern Fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability 84
Closing Remarks
- Conclusion: two to three-year outlook for MR tanker sector is best we have seen in years
- Secular drivers continue to propel MR demand growth in 6% range:
- Oil consumption growth 1-1.5 million bpd on 90 million bpd base (23 million bpd seaborne product volume)
- Export oriented refinery expansion in Middle East and Asia most important driver for volumes and distance
- Trade complexity (regional product slate imbalances / multiple grades / blending / multi-port voyages)
- US Gulf export growth to Latin America also important
- MR tanker supply growth about to decelerate sharply to 2-3%:
- The delivery bulge is almost over – orderbook 8.1% and dropping
- Ordering has ground to a halt: 48 worldwide y-t-d vs. 375 same period 2015
- Korean shipbuilding crisis, other shipping sectors in downturn, debt and equity capital constraints
- This is a set-up for a classic shipping upturn: strong demand growth vs. supply constraints:
- Unless conditions change, the eventual result will be sharply higher spot rates
- Which would kick off ordering activity but deliveries on average two years out
- Spot rates in past 18 months have been healthy but of a different nature entirely
- Ardmore will continue to seek ways to build value for our shareholders under this scenario while
remaining financially conservative.