Annual Meeting
April 16, 2015
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$
Annual Meeting April 16, 2015 Note: All financial disclosure in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Annual Meeting April 16, 2015 Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$ Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$
Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward- looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net earnings if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks we insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; changes in market variables, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and credit spreads, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; the cycles of the insurance market and general economic conditions, which can substantially influence our and our competitors' premium rates and capacity to write new business; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; exposure to credit risk in the event our reinsurers fail to make payments to us under our reinsurance arrangements; exposure to credit risk in the event our insureds, insurance producers or reinsurance intermediaries fail to remit premiums that are owed to us or failure by our insureds to reimburse us for deductibles that are paid by us on their behalf; risks associated with implementing our business strategies; the timing of claims payments being sooner or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being later than anticipated by us; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain financial or claims paying ability ratings; risks associated with our use of derivative instruments; the failure
insurance or reinsurance products, or increased competition in the insurance industry; the failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ; the impact of emerging claim and coverage issues; our inability to access cash of
employees; our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage in sufficient amounts, at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect us; the passage of legislation subjecting our businesses to additional supervision or regulation, including additional tax regulation, in the United States, Canada or other jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with government investigations of, and litigation and negative publicity related to, insurance industry practice or any other conduct; risks associated with political and other developments in foreign jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with legal or regulatory proceedings; failures or security breaches of our computer and data processing systems; the influence exercisable by our significant shareholder; adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; our dependence on independent brokers over whom we exercise little control; an impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets; our failure to realize deferred income tax assets; and assessments and shared market mechanisms which may adversely affect
Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca and in our Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus (under "Risk Factors") filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. 2
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4 6 8 11 15 18 19 26 31 39 63 86 112 156 148 118 127 167 167 143 157 240 293 393 409 407 431 402
395
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Cumulative Dividend Book Value
2014
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Net Premiums Written – $12 million Investment Portfolio – $24 million Common Shareholders’ Equity – $8 million Net Premiums Written – $6.1 billion* Investment Portfolio – $26.2 billion Common Shareholders’ Equity – $8.4 billion
* Ongoing Operations
29 Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 22%
(1) Excludes dividends paid
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Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (5 Years ending 2014) (1)
(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends
19.1% 14.0% 13.0% 11.6% 9.8% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 1.3%
23% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% (1%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) (5%) (5%) (6%) (7%) (7%) (8%) (8%) (9%) (9%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (14%) (14%) (15%) (16%) (17%) (18%) (18%) (19%) (19%) (19%) (22%) (24%) (31%) (32%) (37%) (37%) (43%) (48%) (65%) (100%)
SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12 Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 9
Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (29 Years: since Fairfax’s inception) (1)
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(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends
21.1% 16.7% 16.2% 14.4% 12.8% 12.8% 10.0% 9.0% 8.2% 5.7%
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(1) Includes: Runoff underwriting income, Interest expense and corporate overhead & other
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($ millions)
($ millions)
($ millions)
($ millions)
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($ millions)
($ millions)
($ millions)
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Note: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.
Common stocks (with equity hedging) (2.7)% 6.5% 11.6% S&P 500 15.5% 7.7% 4.2% Taxable bonds 10.2% 11.1% 11.5% Merrill Lynch U.S.corporate (1-10 year) bond index 5.5% 5.0% 6.1% 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years As at December 31, 2014
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5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Compound Annual Returns
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Investment Portfolio Well Positioned
significantly from investment gains – locked in common equity gains
term value-oriented investment philosophy
(1) Net of short sale and derivative obligations; investments in associates at carrying value
Cash/Short- Term 23% Other Investments 4% Corporate Bonds 6% Municipal Bonds 27% Gov't Bonds 15% Common Stocks (~90%hedged) 25%
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ICICI Lombard (India) 1,129 26% 293 Alltrust Insurance (China) 920 15% 138 Gulf Insurance (Middle East) 608 41% 252 Falcon Insurance (Thailand) 48 41% 19 Singapore Re 116 27% 32 Thai Re 201 30% 60 3,022 795 Total 3,863 1,614
* Full year 2014 premium
Gross Fairfax's Share of Premiums Gross Premiums Written Ownership Written ($ millions) ($ millions) First Capital (Singapore) 420 98% 411 Fairfax Brasil 158 100% 158 Polish Re 54 100% 54 Pacific Insurance (Malaysia) 75 100% 75 Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) 82 100% 82 Fairfax Indonesia* 11 80% 9 Union Assurance (Sri Lanka)* 40 78% 31 840 820
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Source: Hoisington Investment Management
Panic Year 2008 Panic Year 1929 Panic Year 1873 1870-2014 avg.=180.4%
Current total debt = $59 trillion Debt/GDP of 180.4% would require total debt of $32 trillion
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Source: Hoisington Investment Management
100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014* 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%
Canada Australia U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan
*Through Q2 2014, except U.S. which is through Q4 2014
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Source: Hoisington Investment Management
1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1918 = 2.0 1946 = 1.2 1997 = 2.2 1.53
present = 1.73
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Debt Induced Panic Years and Long-Term Government Bond Yields 1. Average low level of interest rates after panic 2.0% 2. Average number of years after panic to lowest level
13.7 years 3. Average level of interest rates 20 years after panic 2.4% 4. Change from low level of interest rates to 20th year 0.5%
U.S. 2008 U.S. 1929 Japan 1989
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Source: Hoisington Investment Management
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Sources: Hoisington Investment Management, Bloomberg
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011
Global market Restricted Market Global market
Interest rate avg. = 2.9% Inflation rate avg. = 1.0% Interest rate avg. = 6% Inflation rate avg. = 3.9% Fall of Berlin Wall Onset of Iron and Bamboo Curtains
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Source: Bloomberg
U.S. 2.5% German 0.6%
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Source: Bloomberg
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Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
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Source: Robert J. Shiller
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881 1894 1907 1921 1934 1947 1961 1974 1987 2001 2014
CAPE Ratio Above February 2015
June 1901 25
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Average at end of recessions = 13.1 Range = 5.3 to 19.3
Average
The CAPE Ratio is currently 28x Since 1881, it has been higher only twice. Both episodes ended badly: June - Oct '29 when it peaked at 33x Jan '97 - May '02 when it peaked at 44x
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Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13
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Source: Hoisington Investment Management
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
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QE ends
Source: Hoisington Investment Management
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Source: The World Bank
0% 5% 10%
0% 1% 2% 3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cumulative Annual Annual Inflation Annual Deflation
* In April 2014 Japan raised its consumption tax from 5% to 8% * Estimate - Japan Cabinet Office
*
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Source: Hoisington Investment Management
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2015
Through February 2015 Euro Area (-.1%) U.S. (-.03%)
Source: Bloomberg
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0% 10% 20% 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Total Return on Portfolio Average Return on Portfolio 8.9%
1990
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