Annual Meeting April 16, 2015 Note: All financial disclosure in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Annual Meeting April 16, 2015 Note: All financial disclosure in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Annual Meeting April 16, 2015 Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$ Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant


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SLIDE 1

Annual Meeting

April 16, 2015

Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$

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SLIDE 2

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward- looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net earnings if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks we insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; changes in market variables, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and credit spreads, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; the cycles of the insurance market and general economic conditions, which can substantially influence our and our competitors' premium rates and capacity to write new business; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; exposure to credit risk in the event our reinsurers fail to make payments to us under our reinsurance arrangements; exposure to credit risk in the event our insureds, insurance producers or reinsurance intermediaries fail to remit premiums that are owed to us or failure by our insureds to reimburse us for deductibles that are paid by us on their behalf; risks associated with implementing our business strategies; the timing of claims payments being sooner or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being later than anticipated by us; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain financial or claims paying ability ratings; risks associated with our use of derivative instruments; the failure

  • f our hedging methods to achieve their desired risk management objective; a decrease in the level of demand for

insurance or reinsurance products, or increased competition in the insurance industry; the failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ; the impact of emerging claim and coverage issues; our inability to access cash of

  • ur subsidiaries; our inability to obtain required levels of capital on favourable terms, if at all; loss of key

employees; our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage in sufficient amounts, at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect us; the passage of legislation subjecting our businesses to additional supervision or regulation, including additional tax regulation, in the United States, Canada or other jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with government investigations of, and litigation and negative publicity related to, insurance industry practice or any other conduct; risks associated with political and other developments in foreign jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with legal or regulatory proceedings; failures or security breaches of our computer and data processing systems; the influence exercisable by our significant shareholder; adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; our dependence on independent brokers over whom we exercise little control; an impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets; our failure to realize deferred income tax assets; and assessments and shared market mechanisms which may adversely affect

  • ur U.S. insurance subsidiaries. Additional risks and uncertainties are described in our most recently issued

Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca and in our Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus (under "Risk Factors") filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. 2

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SLIDE 3

Guiding Principles

Objectives

  • We expect to compound our book value per share over the

long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees and shareholders – at the expense of short term profits if necessary Our focus is long term growth in book value per share and not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal means as well as through friendly acquisitions

  • We always want to be soundly financed
  • We provide complete disclosure annually to our

shareholders

3

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SLIDE 4

Guiding Principles

Structure

  • Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents

except for performance evaluation, succession planning, acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with

  • Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to

the benefit of Fairfax in total

  • Complete and open communication between Fairfax and its

subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax

  • Share ownership and large incentives are encouraged

across the Group

  • Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding

company and not an operating company

4

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SLIDE 5

Guiding Principles

Values

  • Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships

and will never be compromised

  • We are results-oriented — not political
  • We are team players — no "egos”. A confrontational style is

not appropriate. We value loyalty — to Fairfax and our colleagues

  • We are hard working but not at the expense of our families
  • We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside

protection and look for ways to minimize loss of capital

  • We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking.

It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes

  • We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition
  • We believe in having fun — at work!

5

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SLIDE 6

1.52

4 6 8 11 15 18 19 26 31 39 63 86 112 156 148 118 127 167 167 143 157 240 293 393 409 407 431 402

468

395

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Cumulative Dividend Book Value

2014

Fairfax – 29 Years

Book Value per Share plus Dividends ($)

6

Net Premiums Written – $12 million Investment Portfolio – $24 million Common Shareholders’ Equity – $8 million Net Premiums Written – $6.1 billion* Investment Portfolio – $26.2 billion Common Shareholders’ Equity – $8.4 billion

* Ongoing Operations

29 Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 22%

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SLIDE 7

Financial Results

(1) Excludes dividends paid

7

Book Value per Share (1) % Change 2007 $ 230 2008 $ 278 21% 2009 $ 370 33% 2010 $ 376 2% 2011 $ 365 (3%) 2012 $ 378 4% 2013 $ 339 (10%) 2014 $ 395 16%

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SLIDE 8

8

Historic Performance vs. Peer Group

Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (5 Years ending 2014) (1)

(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

19.1% 14.0% 13.0% 11.6% 9.8% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 1.3%

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SLIDE 9

23% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% (1%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) (5%) (5%) (6%) (7%) (7%) (8%) (8%) (9%) (9%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (14%) (14%) (15%) (16%) (17%) (18%) (18%) (19%) (19%) (19%) (22%) (24%) (31%) (32%) (37%) (37%) (43%) (48%) (65%) (100%)

SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12 Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 9

2008 Change in Book Value per Share

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SLIDE 10

Historic Performance vs. Peer Group

Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (29 Years: since Fairfax’s inception) (1)

10

(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

21.1% 16.7% 16.2% 14.4% 12.8% 12.8% 10.0% 9.0% 8.2% 5.7%

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SLIDE 11

11

($ millions)

(1) Includes: Runoff underwriting income, Interest expense and corporate overhead & other

Underwriting profit – (combined ratio of 90.8%) 552 Investment income and other 441 Operating income 993 Other (1) (391) Realized investment gains 778 Pre-tax income including realized investment gains 1,379 Unrealized investment gains (mostly from bonds) 1,153 Hedging losses (195) Pre-tax income 2,338 Net earnings 1,665

Sources of Net Earnings in 2014

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SLIDE 12

Underwriting Results in 2014

12

Combined Underwriting Ratio Profit

($ millions)

Northbridge 95.5% 43 Crum & Forster 99.8% 2 Zenith 87.5% 90 OdysseyRe 84.7% 360 Fairfax Asia 86.7% 36 Other Insurance and Reinsurance 94.7% 21 Consolidated 90.8% 552

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SLIDE 13

Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked derivatives Other 597 791 Realized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

13 610 103

  • 78

Unrealized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

(55) (208) (263) 1,134 18 56 945 Net Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

542 (195) 347 1,237 18 134 1,736

Net Gains on Investments in 2014

13

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SLIDE 14

Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked derivatives Other 3,364 3,626 Realized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

(1,331) 2,033 1,724

  • (131)

Unrealized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

(146) (2,374) (2,520) 667 (444) 174 (2,123) Net Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

3,218 (3,705) (487) 2,391 (444) 43 1,503

Net Gains on Investments 2010 – 2014

14

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SLIDE 15

Accident Year Combined Ratios

15

Cumulative Net Premiums Average Written Combined Ratio ($ billions) Northbridge Cdn 10.8 100.3% Crum & Forster 10.4 102.2% OdysseyRe 21.6 93.2% Fairfax Asia 1.5 87.3% 44.3 96.8%

2005-2014

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SLIDE 16

Accident Year Reserve Redundancies

16

Average Annual Reserve Redundancies

Northbridge 11.7% Crum & Forster 3.9% OdysseyRe 11.1% Fairfax Asia 6.7%

2004-2013

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SLIDE 17

Importance of Float

10 year average cost of float: 0.3% (2005 – 2014)

17

Operating Total Companies (including Runoff) Per Share 1985 $ 12.5 million $ 12.5 million $ 3 2014 $ 11.6 billion $ 15.1 billion $ 711

Year-End

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SLIDE 18

Importance of Float

18

Total Float 15,065 $ 711 Common Shareholders' Equity 8,361 $ 395 Net Liabilities 2,767 $ 131 Total Investment Portfolio 26,193 $ 1,237 Investment Portfolio in 1985 24 $ 5 Investment Portfolio including Brit 30,229 $ 1,354 Year-End 2014 ($ millions) Per Share

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SLIDE 19

($ millions)

Pre-Tax Income – Runoff Operations

19

2007 188 2008 393 2009 31 2010 165 2011 351 2012 184 2013 (229) 2014 273 Cumulative (2007-2014) 1,356

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SLIDE 20

Gains (Losses) Per Share ($ millions) 1985 0.5 10¢ 2008 2,144 $ 118 2009 1,981 $ 108 2010 (3)

  • 2011

691 $ 34 2012 643 $ 31 2013 (1,564) $ (77) 2014 1,736 $ 80 Cumulative Gains $11.7 billion

Pre-Tax Realized and Unrealized Gains

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SLIDE 21

Acquisitions in 2014 / 2015

  • Brit PLC
  • Pethealth – 100% ownership
  • Fairfax Indonesia – 80% ownership
  • MCIS Insurance Berhad (Malaysia)
  • Union Assurance (Sri Lanka) – 78% ownership
  • Fairfax Eastern Europe (Slovakia/Hungary/Czech

Republic/Ukraine)

  • Insurance bolt-on acquisitions
  • Runoff acquisitions
  • Fairfax India

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SLIDE 22

Investment Performance

Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

Note: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.

Common stocks (with equity hedging) (2.7)% 6.5% 11.6% S&P 500 15.5% 7.7% 4.2% Taxable bonds 10.2% 11.1% 11.5% Merrill Lynch U.S.corporate (1-10 year) bond index 5.5% 5.0% 6.1% 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years As at December 31, 2014

22

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SLIDE 23

Investment Performance

Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

23

5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Compound Annual Returns

December 31, 2014

Common stocks (with equity hedging)

(2.7%) 6.5% 11.6%

S&P 500

15.5% 7.7% 4.2% December 31, 2013

Common stocks (with equity hedging)

3.2% 7.6% 13.5%

S&P 500

17.9% 7.4% 4.7% December 31, 2012

Common stocks (with equity hedging)

5.5% 14.5% 13.5%

S&P 500

1.7% 7.1% 4.5%

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SLIDE 24

Fairfax’s Investment Portfolio Remains Defensive

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Investment Portfolio Well Positioned

  • No focus on short term earnings
  • Capital preservation a priority
  • Positioned to take advantage of
  • pportunities
  • Fairfax capital base has benefitted

significantly from investment gains – locked in common equity gains

  • We have not deviated from our long

term value-oriented investment philosophy

(1) Net of short sale and derivative obligations; investments in associates at carrying value

Fairfax Investment Portfolio $26.2 billion at December 31, 2014(1)

Cash/Short- Term 23% Other Investments 4% Corporate Bonds 6% Municipal Bonds 27% Gov't Bonds 15% Common Stocks (~90%hedged) 25%

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SLIDE 25

Investments not Carried at Market Value

25

Carrying Value Fair Value Unrealized Gain

($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)

Insurance and reinsurance associates

440 673 234

Non-insurance associates

1,178 1,397 219

Thomas Cook India

270 473 203

Ridley

71 246 174

Total

831

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SLIDE 26

26

Emerging Markets and Asian Footprint

ICICI Lombard (India) 1,129 26% 293 Alltrust Insurance (China) 920 15% 138 Gulf Insurance (Middle East) 608 41% 252 Falcon Insurance (Thailand) 48 41% 19 Singapore Re 116 27% 32 Thai Re 201 30% 60 3,022 795 Total 3,863 1,614

* Full year 2014 premium

Gross Fairfax's Share of Premiums Gross Premiums Written Ownership Written ($ millions) ($ millions) First Capital (Singapore) 420 98% 411 Fairfax Brasil 158 100% 158 Polish Re 54 100% 54 Pacific Insurance (Malaysia) 75 100% 75 Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) 82 100% 82 Fairfax Indonesia* 11 80% 9 Union Assurance (Sri Lanka)* 40 78% 31 840 820

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SLIDE 27

U.S. Private and Public Debt as % of GDP

27

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280% 300% 320% 340% 360% 380% 400% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280% 300% 320% 340% 360% 380% 400% 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Panic Year 2008 Panic Year 1929 Panic Year 1873 1870-2014 avg.=180.4%

Current total debt = $59 trillion Debt/GDP of 180.4% would require total debt of $32 trillion

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SLIDE 28

28

Total Public and Private Debt as a % of GDP – Major Countries

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

annual

100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014* 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%

Canada Australia U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan

*Through Q2 2014, except U.S. which is through Q4 2014

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SLIDE 29

29

Velocity of Money 1900-2014 Equation of Exchange: GDP (nominal) = M*V

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

annual

1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1918 = 2.0 1946 = 1.2 1997 = 2.2 1.53

  • Avg. 1900 to

present = 1.73

  • Avg. 1953 to 1983 = 1.75
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SLIDE 30

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Debt Induced Panic Years and Long-Term Government Bond Yields 1. Average low level of interest rates after panic 2.0% 2. Average number of years after panic to lowest level

  • f interest rates

13.7 years 3. Average level of interest rates 20 years after panic 2.4% 4. Change from low level of interest rates to 20th year 0.5%

Long Term Government Bond Yields Historic Panic Years

U.S. 2008 U.S. 1929 Japan 1989

30

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

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SLIDE 31

31

Sources: Hoisington Investment Management, Bloomberg

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011

  • avg. = 4.2%

Global market Restricted Market Global market

Interest rate avg. = 2.9% Inflation rate avg. = 1.0% Interest rate avg. = 6% Inflation rate avg. = 3.9% Fall of Berlin Wall Onset of Iron and Bamboo Curtains

Long Term Treasury Rate 1871- Q1 2015

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SLIDE 32

32

U.S. and German 30 Year Sovereign Yields

Source: Bloomberg

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 GER 30 YR UST 30 YR

U.S. 2.5% German 0.6%

Quarterly, through Q1 2015

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SLIDE 33

33

U.S. and German 30 Year Sovereign Yield Spread

Source: Bloomberg

  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 250

  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Quarterly, through Q1 2015

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SLIDE 34

34

Netherlands 10 Year Sovereign Yield

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

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SLIDE 35

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Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (S&P 500)

Source: Robert J. Shiller

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881 1894 1907 1921 1934 1947 1961 1974 1987 2001 2014

CAPE Ratio Above February 2015

June 1901 25

  • Sept. 1929

33

  • Jan. 1966

24

  • Dec. 1999

44

Average at end of recessions = 13.1 Range = 5.3 to 19.3

Average

  • Avg. = 16.6

The CAPE Ratio is currently 28x Since 1881, it has been higher only twice. Both episodes ended badly: June - Oct '29 when it peaked at 33x Jan '97 - May '02 when it peaked at 44x

  • Feb. 2015

28

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SLIDE 36

S&P 500 Index and Profit Margins

36

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Jan 1994 Jan 1999 Jan 2004 Jan 2009 Jan 2014 Profit Margin Index

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

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SLIDE 37

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13

Commodity Price Declines

37

S&P GSCI Commodity Index, monthly

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

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SLIDE 38

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

Upward Pressure on the Dollar

38

US Dollar Index, monthly

QE ends

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

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SLIDE 39

39

Deflation in Japan

Source: The World Bank

  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10%

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cumulative Annual Annual Inflation Annual Deflation

* In April 2014 Japan raised its consumption tax from 5% to 8% * Estimate - Japan Cabinet Office

*

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SLIDE 40

40

U.S. and Euro Area Consumer Prices

y-o-y percent change, monthly

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2015

Through February 2015 Euro Area (-.1%) U.S. (-.03%)

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SLIDE 41

Market Cap. P/E Ratio Price to Sales

($ billions)

Social Media

Twitter 31 (loss) 21x Netflix 29 111x 5x Facebook 223 73x 17x LinkedIn 33 89x 15x Yelp 3 358x 9x Yandex 9 19x 6x Tencent Holdings 164 46x 14x

Other Tech/Web

Groupon 6 (loss) 2x Service Now 12 (loss) 17x Salesforce.com 40 (loss) 8x Netsuite 8 (loss) 14x

Source: Bloomberg

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Public High Tech Speculation

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SLIDE 42

42

CPI-Linked Derivative Contracts December 31, 2014

Notional Market Unrealized Amount Cost Value Gain (Loss) Underlying CPI Index ($ billions) ($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions) United States 59 327 151 (175) European Union 45 286 70 (215) United Kingdom 5 24 5 (20) France 3 18 12 (7) 112 655 238 (417)

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SLIDE 43

43

Fairfax Historic Total Return on Investment Portfolio

  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Total Return on Portfolio Average Return on Portfolio 8.9%

1990

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SLIDE 44

Ready for the Next Decade - Building on Fairfax’s Strengths

  • Our guiding principles have remained intact
  • Excellent long term performance
  • Demonstrated strengths
  • Strong operating subsidiaries focused on underwriting profitability

and prudent reserving

  • Conservative investment management providing excellent long

term returns

  • Well positioned for the future
  • Fair and friendly Fairfax culture

44

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SLIDE 45

Annual Meeting

April 16, 2015