Annual Meeting
April 09, 2014
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$
Annual Meeting April 09, 2014 Note: All financial disclosure in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Annual Meeting April 09, 2014 Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$ Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$
Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward- looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net earnings if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks we insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; changes in market variables, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and credit spreads, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; the cycles of the insurance market and general economic conditions, which can substantially influence our and our competitors' premium rates and capacity to write new business; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; exposure to credit risk in the event our reinsurers fail to make payments to us under our reinsurance arrangements; exposure to credit risk in the event our insureds, insurance producers or reinsurance intermediaries fail to remit premiums that are owed to us or failure by our insureds to reimburse us for deductibles that are paid by us on their behalf; risks associated with implementing our business strategies; the timing of claims payments being sooner or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being later than anticipated by us; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain financial or claims paying ability ratings; risks associated with our use of derivative instruments; the failure
insurance or reinsurance products, or increased competition in the insurance industry; the failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ; the impact of emerging claim and coverage issues; our inability to access cash of
employees; our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage in sufficient amounts, at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect us; the passage of legislation subjecting our businesses to additional supervision or regulation, including additional tax regulation, in the United States, Canada or other jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with government investigations of, and litigation and negative publicity related to, insurance industry practice or any other conduct; risks associated with political and other developments in foreign jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with legal or regulatory proceedings; failures or security breaches of our computer and data processing systems; the influence exercisable by our significant shareholder; adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; our dependence on independent brokers over whom we exercise little control; an impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets; our failure to realize deferred income tax assets; and assessments and shared market mechanisms which may adversely affect
Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca and in our Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus (under "Risk Factors") filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. 2
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4 6 8 11 15 18 19 26 31 39 63 86 112 156 148 118 127 167 167 143 157 240 293 393 409 407 431 339
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Book Value Cumulative Dividend
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1.52 402 28 Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 22% 339
(1) Excludes dividends paid
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8
19.8% 16.5% 15.4% 14.4% 13.9% 12.7% 11.7% 11.2% 10.8% 10.7% 10.2% 9.1% 8.7% 4.0% (1.2%)
Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (5 Years ending 2013) (1)
(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends
23% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% (1%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) (5%) (5%) (6%) (7%) (7%) (8%) (8%) (9%) (9%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (14%) (14%) (15%) (16%) (17%) (18%) (18%) (19%) (19%) (19%) (22%) (24%) (31%) (32%) (37%) (37%) (43%) (48%) (65%) (100%)
SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12 Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 9
Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (28 Years: since Fairfax’s inception) (1)
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(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends
21.3% 17.0% 16.3% 14.6% 13.3% 13.1% 10.1% 9.0% 8.1% 5.7%
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(1) Includes: Runoff underwriting income, Interest expense and corporate overhead & other
($ millions)
($ millions)
($ millions)
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($ millions)
($ millions)
($ millions)
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14
15
(1)
(1)
(1) IFRS total equity
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($ millions) ($ millions)
17
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Gross Premiums Written
OdysseyRe Northbridge (Cdn $) Crum & Forster
Soft Market Hard Market ($ millions)
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19
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21
22
Notes: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.
Common stocks (with equity hedging) 3.2% 7.6% 13.5% S&P 500 17.9% 7.4% 4.7% Taxable bonds 11.2% 10.3% 9.9% Merrill Lynch U.S.corporate (1-10 year) bond index 8.4% 5.0% 5.7% 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years As at December 31, 2013
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Cash/Short- Term 31% Corporate Bonds 6% Municipal Bonds 25% Gov't Bonds 12%
Common Stocks 22% (~100% Hedged)
Other Investments 4% Cash/Short
27% Corporate Bonds 4%
Common Stocks 16% (~100% Hedged)
Other Investments 6% Government Bonds 47%
September 30, 2008 (1) $20.4 billion
(1) Includes holding company cash and marketable securities
December 31, 2013 (1) $24.9 billion
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25
26
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($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)
1,433 1,815 382
162 253 91
70 131 61
109
643
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Gross Premiums Written Ownership Fairfax's Share of Gross Premiums Written First Capital 399 100% 399 Fairfax Brasil 151 100% 151 Polish Re 100 100% 100 Pacific Insurance 73 100% 73 Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) 58 100% 58 781 781 ICICI Lombard 1,240 26% 322 Alltrust Insurance 900 15% 135 Gulf Insurance 533 41% 219 Falcon Insurance (Thailand) 48 41% 20 Other Reinsurance 334 25% 84 3,055 780 Total 3,836 1,561
100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280% 300% 320% 340% 360% 380% 400% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280% 300% 320% 340% 360% 380% 400% 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Panic Year 2008 Panic Year 1929 Panic Year 1873 1870-2013 avg. = 180.2%
Current total debt = $58.9 trillion Debt/GDP of 180.2% would require total debt of $30.8 trillion 30
Source: Hoisington Investment Management
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30
100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%
Canada Australia U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan
Source: Hoisington Investment Management
Source: Hoisington Investment Management
32 1918 = 1.95
present = 1.71 1946 = 1.18 1997 = 2.2
1.57 31
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Source: Hoisington Investment Management Debt Induced Panic Years and Long-Term Government Bond Yields 1. Average low level of interest rates after panic 2.0% 2. Average number of years after panic to lowest level
13.7 years 3. Average level of interest rates 20 years after panic 2.5% 4. Change from low level of interest rates to 20th year 0.5%
U.S. 2008 U.S. 1929 Japan 1989
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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Source: Hoisington Investment Management Interest rate avg. = 2.9% Inflation rate avg. = 1.0%
Onset of Iron and Bamboo Curtains Fall of Berlin Wall Interest rate avg. = 6% Inflation rate avg. = 3.9%
Global market Restricted market Global market
1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011
34 33
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881 1893 1905 1917 1929 1941 1953 1965 1977 1989 2001 2013
Source: Hoisington Investment Management Average
42 Average at end of recessions = 13.1 Range = 5.3 to 19.3
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24
32 June 1901 25
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Jan 1994 Jan 1998 Jan 2002 Jan 2006 Jan 2010 Jan 2014
Profit Margin Index
Source: Bloomberg
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Annual Cumulative
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Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development
0% 5% 10%
0% 1% 2% 3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Annual Deflation Annual Inflation Cumulative *
* Estimate
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5 10 15 20 25
Source: Bloomberg
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
37
Source: Bloomberg
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40
41
0% 10% 20% 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Total Return on Portfolio Average Return on Portfolio 8.9%
2013
Source: SNL Financial LC; Returns calculated by Fairfax
Return on Average Investments 2004-2013
42
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