Annual Meeting April 09, 2014 Note: All financial disclosure in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Annual Meeting April 09, 2014 Note: All financial disclosure in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Annual Meeting April 09, 2014 Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$ Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant


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SLIDE 1

Annual Meeting

April 09, 2014

Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$

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SLIDE 2

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward- looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net earnings if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks we insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; changes in market variables, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and credit spreads, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; the cycles of the insurance market and general economic conditions, which can substantially influence our and our competitors' premium rates and capacity to write new business; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; exposure to credit risk in the event our reinsurers fail to make payments to us under our reinsurance arrangements; exposure to credit risk in the event our insureds, insurance producers or reinsurance intermediaries fail to remit premiums that are owed to us or failure by our insureds to reimburse us for deductibles that are paid by us on their behalf; risks associated with implementing our business strategies; the timing of claims payments being sooner or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being later than anticipated by us; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain financial or claims paying ability ratings; risks associated with our use of derivative instruments; the failure

  • f our hedging methods to achieve their desired risk management objective; a decrease in the level of demand for

insurance or reinsurance products, or increased competition in the insurance industry; the failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ; the impact of emerging claim and coverage issues; our inability to access cash of

  • ur subsidiaries; our inability to obtain required levels of capital on favourable terms, if at all; loss of key

employees; our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage in sufficient amounts, at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect us; the passage of legislation subjecting our businesses to additional supervision or regulation, including additional tax regulation, in the United States, Canada or other jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with government investigations of, and litigation and negative publicity related to, insurance industry practice or any other conduct; risks associated with political and other developments in foreign jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with legal or regulatory proceedings; failures or security breaches of our computer and data processing systems; the influence exercisable by our significant shareholder; adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; our dependence on independent brokers over whom we exercise little control; an impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets; our failure to realize deferred income tax assets; and assessments and shared market mechanisms which may adversely affect

  • ur U.S. insurance subsidiaries. Additional risks and uncertainties are described in our most recently issued

Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca and in our Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus (under "Risk Factors") filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. 2

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SLIDE 3

Guiding Principles

Objectives

  • We expect to compound our book value per share over the

long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees and shareholders – at the expense of short term profits if necessary Our focus is long term growth in book value per share and not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal means as well as through friendly acquisitions

  • We always want to be soundly financed
  • We provide complete disclosure annually to our

shareholders

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SLIDE 4

Guiding Principles

Structure

  • Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents

except for performance evaluation, succession planning, acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with

  • Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to

the benefit of Fairfax in total

  • Complete and open communication between Fairfax and its

subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax

  • Share ownership and large incentives are encouraged

across the Group

  • Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding

company and not an operating company

4

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SLIDE 5

Guiding Principles

Values

  • Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships

and will never be compromised

  • We are results-oriented — not political
  • We are team players — no "egos”. A confrontational style is

not appropriate. We value loyalty — to Fairfax and our colleagues

  • We are hard working but not at the expense of our families
  • We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside

protection and look for ways to minimize loss of capital

  • We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking.

It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes

  • We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition
  • We believe in having fun — at work!

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SLIDE 6

4 6 8 11 15 18 19 26 31 39 63 86 112 156 148 118 127 167 167 143 157 240 293 393 409 407 431 339

1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Book Value Cumulative Dividend

Fairfax – 28 Years

6

Shareholders – Book Value per Share plus Dividends $

1.52 402 28 Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 22% 339

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SLIDE 7

Financial Results

(1) Excludes dividends paid

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Book Value per Share (1) % Change 2006 $ 150 2007 $ 230 53% 2008 $ 278 21% 2009 $ 369 33% 2010 $ 376 2% 2011 $ 365 (3%) 2012 $ 378 4% 2013 $ 339 (10%)

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SLIDE 8

8

19.8% 16.5% 15.4% 14.4% 13.9% 12.7% 11.7% 11.2% 10.8% 10.7% 10.2% 9.1% 8.7% 4.0% (1.2%)

Historic Performance vs Peer Group

Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (5 Years ending 2013) (1)

(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

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SLIDE 9

23% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% (1%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) (5%) (5%) (6%) (7%) (7%) (8%) (8%) (9%) (9%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (14%) (14%) (15%) (16%) (17%) (18%) (18%) (19%) (19%) (19%) (22%) (24%) (31%) (32%) (37%) (37%) (43%) (48%) (65%) (100%)

SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12 Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 9

2008 Change in Book Value per Share

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SLIDE 10

Historic Performance vs Peer Group

Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (28 Years: since Fairfax’s inception) (1)

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(1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

21.3% 17.0% 16.3% 14.6% 13.3% 13.1% 10.1% 9.0% 8.1% 5.7%

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SLIDE 11

Source of Earnings in 2013

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($ millions)

(1) Includes: Runoff underwriting income, Interest expense and corporate overhead & other

Underwriting profit – (Combined Ratio of 92.7%) 440 Investment income and other 382 Operating Income 822 Other (1) (259) Realized investment gains 1,380 Pre-tax income including realized investment gains 1,943 Unrealized investment losses (mostly from bonds) (962) Hedging losses (1,982) Pre-tax loss (1,001) Net Loss (565)

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SLIDE 12

Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked Derivatives Other 1,324 29 Realized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

(1,351) (27) 66

  • (10)

Unrealized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

121 (631) (510) (995) (127) 39 (1,593) Net Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

1,445 (1,982) (537) (929) (127) 29 (1,564)

Net Gains on Investments in 2013

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SLIDE 13

Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked Derivatives Other 2,767 2,835 Realized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

(1,344) 1,423 1,622

  • (209)

Unrealized Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

(91) (2,166) (2,256) (468) (462) 118 (3,068) Net Gains (Losses)

($ millions)

2,676 (3,510) (834) 1,154 (462) (91) (233)

Net Gains on Investments 2010 – 2013

13

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SLIDE 14

Accident Year Combined Ratios

14

Cumulative Net Premiums Average Written Combined Ratio ($ billions) Northbridge Cdn 11.0 98.4% Crum & Forster 9.9 101.8% OdysseyRe 21.6 92.6% Fairfax Asia 1.3 86.7% 43.8 96.0%

2004-2013

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SLIDE 15

Average Annual Reserve Redundancies

Northbridge 10.3% Crum & Forster 4.6% OdysseyRe 11.3% Fairfax Asia 7.9%

2003-2012

Accident Year Reserve Redundancies

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SLIDE 16

Net Premiums Written/ Net Premiums Statutory Statutory Written Surplus Surplus Northbridge 1,031 1,172 0.9x Crum & Forster 1,233 1,142 1.1x Zenith National 700 516 1.4x OdysseyRe 2,377 3,809

(1)

0.6x Fairfax Asia 257 610

(1)

0.4x

Strong Operating Companies’ Capital - 2013

(1) IFRS total equity

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($ millions) ($ millions)

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SLIDE 17

Well Positioned for a Turn in the Cycle

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Gross Premiums Written

OdysseyRe Northbridge (Cdn $) Crum & Forster

Soft Market Hard Market ($ millions)

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SLIDE 18

Importance of Float

10 year average cost of float: 0.7% (2004 – 2013)

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Operating Total Companies (Including Runoff) Per Share 1985 $ 12.5 million $ 12.5 million $ 3 2013 $ 11.9 billion $ 15.6 billion $ 734

Year-End

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SLIDE 19

Importance of Float

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Year-End 2013 ($ millions) Per Share Total Float 15,551 $ 734 Common Shareholders' Equity 7,187 $ 339 Net Liabilities 2,124 $ 100 Total Investment Portfolio 24,862 $ 1,173 Investment Portfolio in 1985 24 $ 5

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SLIDE 20

Gains Per Share ($ millions) 1985 0.5 10¢ 2008 2,144 $ 118 2009 1,981 $ 108 2010 (3) 2011 691 $ 34 2012 643 $ 31 2013 (1,564) $ (77) Cumulative Gains billion $ 10

Pre-Tax Realized and Unrealized Gains

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SLIDE 21

($ millions)

Pre-Tax Income – Runoff Operations

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2007 188 2008 393 2009 31 2010 165 2011 351 2012 184 2013 (229) Cumulative (2007-2013) 1,083

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SLIDE 22

Acquisitions in 2013

  • American Safety – 100% ownership
  • Hartville – 100% ownership
  • Thomas Cook/IKYA/Sterling
  • Prime/CARA/Keg

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SLIDE 23

Investment Performance

Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

Notes: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.

Common stocks (with equity hedging) 3.2% 7.6% 13.5% S&P 500 17.9% 7.4% 4.7% Taxable bonds 11.2% 10.3% 9.9% Merrill Lynch U.S.corporate (1-10 year) bond index 8.4% 5.0% 5.7% 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years As at December 31, 2013

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SLIDE 24

Fairfax’s Investment Portfolio 2008 vs 2013

Cash/Short- Term 31% Corporate Bonds 6% Municipal Bonds 25% Gov't Bonds 12%

Common Stocks 22% (~100% Hedged)

Other Investments 4% Cash/Short

  • Term

27% Corporate Bonds 4%

Common Stocks 16% (~100% Hedged)

Other Investments 6% Government Bonds 47%

September 30, 2008 (1) $20.4 billion

(1) Includes holding company cash and marketable securities

December 31, 2013 (1) $24.9 billion

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SLIDE 25

At December 31, 2012 n/a $ 378 First quarter $ 7.1 $ 373 Second quarter $ (8.6) $ 362 Third quarter $ (29.0) $ 335 Fourth quarter $ (1.0) $ 339

2013 Earnings (Loss) per Share Book Value per Share

Fairfax Focused on the Long Term

Earnings and book value volatile on a quarterly basis

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SLIDE 26

Financial Strength

26

2012 2013

Holding Company Obligations 2,378 2,491 Subsidiary Debt 671 504 Total Debt 3,049 2,995 Holding Company Cash and Marketable Securities 1,128 1,242 Net Debt 1,921 1,753 Total Equity & Non-controlling Interests 8,890 8,461 Net Debt/Net Total Capital 17.8% 17.2% Total Debt/Total Capital 25.5% 26.1% ($ millions)

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SLIDE 27

Investments Not Carried at Market Value

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Carrying Value Fair Value Unrealized Gain

($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)

Investments in Associates

1,433 1,815 382

Thomas Cook India

162 253 91

Ridley

70 131 61

Eurobank Properties (Rights Offering)

109

Total

643

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SLIDE 28

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Emerging Markets and Asian Footprint

Gross Premiums Written Ownership Fairfax's Share of Gross Premiums Written First Capital 399 100% 399 Fairfax Brasil 151 100% 151 Polish Re 100 100% 100 Pacific Insurance 73 100% 73 Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) 58 100% 58 781 781 ICICI Lombard 1,240 26% 322 Alltrust Insurance 900 15% 135 Gulf Insurance 533 41% 219 Falcon Insurance (Thailand) 48 41% 20 Other Reinsurance 334 25% 84 3,055 780 Total 3,836 1,561

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SLIDE 29

100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280% 300% 320% 340% 360% 380% 400% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280% 300% 320% 340% 360% 380% 400% 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Panic Year 2008 Panic Year 1929 Panic Year 1873 1870-2013 avg. = 180.2%

Current total debt = $58.9 trillion Debt/GDP of 180.2% would require total debt of $30.8 trillion 30

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

U.S. Private and Public Debt as % of GDP

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SLIDE 30

30

100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%

Canada Australia U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

annual

Total Public and Private Debt as a % of GDP – Major Countries

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SLIDE 31

1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: Hoisington Investment Management

32 1918 = 1.95

  • Avg. 1900 to

present = 1.71 1946 = 1.18 1997 = 2.2

annual

  • Avg. 1953 to 1983 = 1.74

1.57 31

Velocity of Money 1900-2013 Equation of Exchange: GDP (nominal) = M*V

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SLIDE 32

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Source: Hoisington Investment Management Debt Induced Panic Years and Long-Term Government Bond Yields 1. Average low level of interest rates after panic 2.0% 2. Average number of years after panic to lowest level

  • f interest rates

13.7 years 3. Average level of interest rates 20 years after panic 2.5% 4. Change from low level of interest rates to 20th year 0.5%

Long-Term Government Bond Yields Historic Panic Years

U.S. 2008 U.S. 1929 Japan 1989

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SLIDE 33

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Source: Hoisington Investment Management Interest rate avg. = 2.9% Inflation rate avg. = 1.0%

  • avg. = 4.3%

Onset of Iron and Bamboo Curtains Fall of Berlin Wall Interest rate avg. = 6% Inflation rate avg. = 3.9%

Global market Restricted market Global market

1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011

34 33

Long Term Treasury Rate 1871-2013

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SLIDE 34

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881 1893 1905 1917 1929 1941 1953 1965 1977 1989 2001 2013

Source: Hoisington Investment Management Average

  • Dec. 1999

42 Average at end of recessions = 13.1 Range = 5.3 to 19.3

  • Avg. = 16.4

35

  • Jan. 1966

24

  • Sept. 1929

32 June 1901 25

34

Shiller’s Price-Earnings Ratio 1881-2013

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SLIDE 35

S&P 500 Index and Profit Margins

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Jan 1994 Jan 1998 Jan 2002 Jan 2006 Jan 2010 Jan 2014

Profit Margin Index

Source: Bloomberg

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SLIDE 36

Annual Cumulative

37

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development

  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10%

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual Deflation Annual Inflation Cumulative *

* Estimate

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Deflation in Japan

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SLIDE 37

7-10 Year US High Yield Debt (Yield To Maturity)

5 10 15 20 25

Source: Bloomberg

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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SLIDE 38

Source: Bloomberg

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High Tech Speculation

Market Cap. P/E Ratio Price to Sales

(US$ Billions)

Social Media

Twitter 39 (loss) 38x Netflix 27 186x 6x Facebook 174 116x 21x LinkedIn 24 887x 15x Yelp 7 (loss) 27x Yandex 12 33x 11x Tencent Holdings 150 59x 16x

Other Tech/Web

Groupon 6 (loss) 2x Service Now 10 (loss) 22x Salesforce.com 38 (loss) 9x Netsuite 9 (loss) 21x

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SLIDE 39

Monstrous Real Estate & Construction Bubble in China

  • China built 50 Manhattans between 2008 and 2012
  • China built 20 million housing units in 2012 compared to 2 million in the

United States at its peak

  • At the end of 2013 China had 60 million units under construction
  • In many Chinese cities, the existing housing stock has been replicated

and is empty

  • Home ownership rates in China are estimated to be over 100% versus

65% in the United States

  • Since 2009 the Chinese banks have grown by the equivalent of the

entire United States banking system

  • The shadow banking system in China is estimated by BoA to be $4.7

trillion or 51% of Chinese GDP

  • Prior to the credit crisis, the U.S. had $4.5 trillion in asset-backed securities (31%
  • f U.S. GDP)
  • A combination of explosive growth and high interest rates has resulted

in a massive carry trade where speculators borrow at low rates across the world and invest in China – when the capital flows reverse, watch

  • ut!

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SLIDE 40

CPI-Linked Derivative Contracts December 31, 2013

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Notional Weighted Amount Average Dec 31, 2013 Underlying CPI Index ($ billions) Strike Price (CPI) CPI U.S. 34 230 233 European Union 39 110 117 U.K. 6 244 253 France 4 125 126 83 ($ millions) Total Cost 546 Total Market Value 132

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SLIDE 41

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Fairfax Historic Total Return on Investment Portfolio

  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Total Return on Portfolio Average Return on Portfolio 8.9%

2013

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SLIDE 42

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 9 Peer 10

Average Fairfax 4.2% 7.4%

4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%

Superior Long Term Investment Track Record

Source: SNL Financial LC; Returns calculated by Fairfax

Return on Average Investments 2004-2013

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SLIDE 43

Ready for the Next Decade - Building on Fairfax’s Strengths

  • Our guiding principles have remained intact
  • Excellent long term performance
  • Demonstrated strengths
  • Strong operating subsidiaries focused on underwriting profitability

and prudent reserving

  • Conservative investment management providing excellent long

term returns

  • Well positioned for the future
  • Fair and friendly Fairfax culture

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