Analyst Conference Q1/16 Wednesday, April 27, 2016 AGENDA I. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Analyst Conference Q1/16 Wednesday, April 27, 2016 AGENDA I. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Analyst Conference Q1/16 Wednesday, April 27, 2016 AGENDA I. Consolidated Results - Q1/16 Consolidated Results - Financial Updates II. SCG Cement - Building Materials III. SCG Chemicals IV. SCG Packaging V. Summary 2 Revenue from
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AGENDA
- I. Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
II. SCG Cement - Building Materials
- III. SCG Chemicals
- IV. SCG Packaging
- V. Summary
3
Revenue from Sales
Q1/16 revenue was relatively sideways y-o-y, and gained +4% q-o-q following the seasonal effect in the cement – building materials business.
+1% y-o-y +4% q-o-q
121,765 124,795 124,275 116,710 109,276 113,818 110,898 105,622 109,998
30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 MB
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NOTE: EBITDA = EBITDA from Operations + Dividend from Associates
EBITDA
Healthy chemicals spreads were the main drivers towards the EBITDA growth of +17% y-o-y and +8% q-o-q.
15,071 15,826 14,203 16,048 18,131 23,281 18,982 18,952 21,116 393 1,189 1,876 1,887 284 1,983 98 979 381 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 MB
15,464 17,015 16,079 17,935 18,415 25,264
Dividend from Associates
EBITDA
EBITDA from Operations
+17% y-o-y +8% q-o-q +16% y-o-y +11% q-o-q
19,931 19,080 21,497
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Equity Income
Contributions from chemicals associates were the key factors of the +73% y-o-y and +75% q-o-q gains.
+73% y-o-y +75% q-o-q
1,047 672 533 1,061 752 747 717 878 956 678 445 1,107 565 1,495 2,900 1,456 1,348 2,942 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Chemicals Non-Chemicals
MB
1,725 1,117 1,640 1,626 2,247 3,647 2,173 2,226 3,898
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*Note: SCG Chemicals (Sub + Asso.)
Key Non-recurring 460 (30) 700 (2,710) 1,020 700 (3,630) 1,320 280
1) FX Gain (Loss) (170) 680 130 460 (270) (420) (1,050) 510 490 2) Inventory Gain (Loss)* 180 (80) (130) (2,960) (930) 970 (2,160) 330 (300) 3) Insurance Claim (Sub + Asso.) 450 50 150 120 90 4) Others 1,490 480
+22% y-o-y +18% q-o-q
- 3,000
3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 MB
8,381 8,532 7,846 8,856 11,073 13,877 9,001 11,449
Profit for the Period
Profitability was a healthy 13,488 MB, as a result of the solid chemicals earnings which accounted for 66% of SCG’s total Q1/16 profitability.
13,488
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Segmented Revenue from Sales
The chemicals business accounted for 44% of Revenue in Q1/16.
Q1/16
Cement- Building Materials 39% Packaging 17% Chemicals 44%
Q1/15
Cement- Building Materials 40% Packaging 16% Chemicals 44%
47,081 47,956 17,111 45,880 47,810 18,847 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 MB
Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q1/16 Cement - Building Materials Chemicals Packaging
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Segmented Profit for the Period
The growth was from the chemicals business which accounted for 66% of the Q1/16 earnings.
(Mainly SCG Investment and Corporate)
3,558 4,938 878 1,765 3,290 8,980 1,255 40 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 MB
Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q1/16 Cement - Building Materials Chemicals Packaging Others Sub. 6,038 Sub. 3,443
Q1/15 Q1/16
Other 16% Chemicals Equity Income 13% Chemicals Subsidiaries 31%
Cement- Building Materials 32%
Packaging 8% Chemicals Equity Income 22% Chemicals Subsidiaries 44% Cement- Building Materials 25% Packaging 9% Eq Inc. Eq Inc.
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61% 61% 10% 12% 12% 11% 17% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q1/15 Q1/16
ASEAN 44% ASEAN 41%
China/HK, 24% China/HK, 22%
- S. Asia, 8%
- S. Asia, 10%
- N. Asia, 7%
- N. Asia, 7%
Others, 17% Others, 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q1/15 Q1/16
Segments: Export Sales and ASEAN Operation
ASEAN exports and ASEAN operations accounted for 23% in Q1/16, compared to 22% in Q1/15.
% of Sales 29% 27%
Sales Destinations
23% Domestic
ASEAN Operation Export to ASEAN Export to Others
Export Destinations
22%
32,242 MB 29,570 MB
109,998 MB 109,276 MB
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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16 Export to ASEAN ASEAN Operation
Percentage of total sales from ASEAN Operations:
3% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 11% 12%
ASEAN Sales
Segments: Export Sale and ASEAN Operation
Sales to ASEAN (exports and localized operations) grew slightly y-o-y and reached 24,396 MB in Q1/16 (Thai Baht term).
MB
30,936 37,496 43,923 40,566 51,750 61,213 74,465 85,537 100,912 100,150
Vietnam 30% Indonesia 28% Cambodia 13% Myanmar 10% Philippines 9% Other ASEAN 10%
ASEAN Sales by countries
Export to ASEAN by countries ASEAN Operation by countries
Vietnam 42% Indonesia 29%
Cambodia 14% Philippines 12% Myanmar 1% Other ASEAN 2% Indonesia 26% Myanmar 20% Vietnam 16% Cambodia 12% Malaysia 10% Laos 7% Philippines 6% Singapore 3%
(+1% y-o-y)
24,396
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HVA’s Revenue from Sales
Consolidated:
Business 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16 Cement-Building Materials 41% 42% 41% 41% Chemicals 27% 27% 31% 32%
Chemicals (Includes associates)
50% 50% 53% 55%
Packaging 38% 39% 39% 43% 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
HVA as a % of 4% 17% 19% 25% 29% 32% 34% 35% 35% 37% 39% Revenue from Sales
MB
$200m 149,924 136,762 117,992 85,768 59,461 54,865 38,837 7,783 169,071 161,851 $1.2 billion
(+3% y-o-y)
42,262
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R&D Spending
55% 33% 9% 3% Cement- Building Materials Packaging Chemicals Others
SBU:
% R&D SPENDING ON SALES: 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8%
40 370 720 880 921 1,111 1,430 2,068 2,710 3,510 909 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
MB
$1m $25m
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AGENDA
- I. Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
II. SCG Cement - Building Materials
- III. SCG Chemicals
- IV. SCG Packaging
- V. Summary
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EBITDA on Assets, and EBITDA Margin
EBITDA on Assets = EBITDA / Consolidated Assets EBITDA margin = EBITDA from Operations / Consolidated Sales
Percent (%) EBITDA Margin (%):
23 27 23 22 22 23 26 22 19 16 14 18 14 11 10 13 13 18 19
EBITDA on Total Assets
14 16 16 17 18 21 29 27 26 20 14 15 13 12 12 14 14 16 16 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
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Net Debt
Leverage registered 1.8 times (x), on healthy EBITDA and lower net debt.
243.5 197.1 178.0 175.7 148.4 126.3 114.9 100.6 100.5 103.0 99.9 120.5 122.0 83.6 112.1 137.6 157.8 164.4 162.5 151.7
9.2 7.7 6.4 5.8 5.1 4.1 3.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 3.1 2.6 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 50 100 150 200 250
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
Billion Baht
(Net Debt)
Times (x)
(Leverage)
Net Debt to Equity = 0.6x Net Debt on EBITDA
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- CAPEX includes debottlenecking, expansion projects, and major turnaround.
- Investments are acquisitions and purchase of shares.
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/16
Billion Baht
10.0 3.5 10.3 8.5 5.7 11.9 14.0 19.1 23.6 27.2 42.4 34.5 18.4 32.0 47.0 50.0 45.0 45.2
CAPEX & Investments
Amounted to 10,357 MB in Q1/16, which was mainly from the greenfield & expansion in the cement-building materials business.
Efficiency Projects 22% Others 3% Greenfield & Expansion 44% Maintenance 10%
Q1/16
SBU: Types:
69% 14% 13% 4% Others Cement- Building Materials Packaging Chemicals Investment 21% 10.4
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Interest and Finance Costs
Amounted to a total of 1,550 MB which includes a FX gain of 490 MB, while interest cost was 3.9% at the end of Q1/16.
NOTE: Interest & financial charges include FX gain/loss transactions.
FX gain (loss): 660 940 (690) 640 (770) 490
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1/15
MB
15,006 12,995 14,030 11,487 10,038 8,101 5,878 4,762 5,169 5,273 6,089 5,649 4,670 6,048 6,321 8,193 7,266 9,076 1,550
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Financial Highlights & Outlook
Highlights:
- Net Working Capital was relatively sideways at 60,731 MB, with Inventory to Net Sales
- f 42 days, from 41 days in Q4/15.
- Cash & cash under management of 44,436 MB at the end of Q1/16.
- Full subscription to the Apr 1/16 debenture issuance of 25 Billion Baht (4-years, 3.0%)
which replaced the 25 Billion Baht matured debenture (4-year, 4.15%).
Outlook:
- Solid financial position.
- FY2016 CAPEX & Investments of approximately 50,000 MB, with focus on M&A.
- FY2016 depreciation of approximately 24,000 MB, up 3,000 MB y-o-y.
.
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AGENDA
- I. Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
II. SCG Cement - Building Materials
- III. SCG Chemicals
- IV. SCG Packaging
- V. Summary
20
Revenue from Sales
Sales in Q1/16 decreased -3% y-o-y as a result of strong competition in domestic market.
International Domestic 65% 63% 65% 62% 64% 35% 37% 35% 38% 36%
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 MB
47,081 45,663
- 3% y-o-y
+8% q-o-q 43,570 42,674 45,880
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EBITDA Margin * Total 15% 14% 13% 12% 15% International 10% 11% 10% 8% 10% Domestic 18% 16% 14% 15% 17%
Domestic Structural Prod. 27% 24% 22% 21% 25%
EBITDA Portion International 24% 29% 28% 24% 24%
EBITDA and Profit for the Period
Q1/16 EBITDA dropped -5% y-o-y, mainly attributed to the lower y-o-y domestic cement prices.
7,170 6,435 5,590 5,200 6,845 3,558 2,896 2,073 1,723 3,290 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 MB
EBITDA Profit for the period
- 8% y-o-y
+91% q-o-q
- 5% y-o-y
+32% q-o-q
Note: * EBITDA margin = EBITDA from Operations, excludes divided from associates.
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Q1/16 Domestic market insight
- Cement demand grew +5% y-o-y in Q1/16, driven mainly by the growth in the
government related projects.
- Ready-mixed concrete (RMC) demand grew +6% y-o-y in Q1/16, but prices
dropped y-o-y to the range of 1,650 – 1,700 baht per cubic meter.
- Demand for housing products (roof ceiling & wall) in Q1/16 was flat y-o-y,
while demand for ceramic tiles dropped -5% y-o-y.
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Domestic sales segmentation
Q1/16 domestic sales in Thailand declined -5%, due to the lower domestic cement prices and trading of non-SCG products.
Grey Cement, 22% RMC 23% Others 5%
Housing Products, 17%
Ceramics 14% Logistic and Others, 19%
29,148 MB (-5% y-o-y) Domestic Sales (Q1/16)
22% 21% 20% 21% 22% 22% 22% 25% 25% 23%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
17% 17% 16% 15% 17%
14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 20% 21% 20% 20% 19% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Structural Products
MB
- 5% y-o-y
+10% q-o-q
30,530 28,840 28,183 26,425 29,148 Note: Domestic business: domestic sales from Thai operations
Structural Products: Grey cement, RMC, Others (mortar, white cement, and lightweight concrete blocks). Housing Products: Roofing products, Board & Wood sub, and Home improvement. Ceramics: includes Sanitary ware and Fittings.
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Domestic cement segments
Cement demand grew +5% y-o-y in Q1/16, driven mainly by the growth in the government related projects.
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
2015
Q1/16
Total Market* (100%)
- 2%
+2%
- 1%
+2% 0% +5% Commercial
(Approximately 20%)
- 6%
+1%
- 3%
0%
- 2%
0%
Gov’t
(Approximately 30%)
+10% +11% +11% +12%
+11%
+21%
Residential
(Approximately 50%)
- 7%
- 3%
- 7%
- 4%
- 5%
- 2%
Note: * Estimated volume market distribution
% Growth ( y-o-y )
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Sale Mix
- Bagged Cement (%)
45 44 40 38 41 40 37 37 39 39 35 35 37
- Bulk Cement (%)
55 56 60 62 59 60 63 63 61 61 65 65 63
Domestic cement price
The average cement price in Thailand remained at the 1,800-1,850 Baht/ton level, despite the q-o-q weakness and the noticeable change y-o-y.
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Baht/Ton
Average Domestic Price of Grey Cement (Net ex-factory)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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ASEAN market insight
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 2015 Q1/16
Cambodia
+8% +12% +17% +0%
+9%
+16%
Indonesia
- 1%
- 2%
+4% +6%
+2%
+3%
Myanmar
+17% +19% +7% +2%
+11%
+6%
Vietnam
- 1%
+11% +6% +14%
+8%
+9%*
Cement Demand Growth ( y-o-y )
Note: Indonesia’s cement demand is based on the data from Indonesian cement association (ASI). * Vietnam’s cement demand in Q1/16 included only Jan- Feb.
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International sales segmentation
Q1/16 International sales grew +1% y-o-y, mainly due to the ramp-up of the cement operations in Cambodia and Indonesia.
Q1/2016 ASEAN Operations (Products) Q1/2016 ASEAN Operations (Country)
Indonesia 38% Vietnam 27% Cambodia 23% Philippines 10% Myanmar 2% Ceramic 41% RMC & Precast 22% Grey Cement 23% Building Product 11% Others 3%
38% 39% 44% 47% 43% 31% 30% 26% 25% 28% 31% 31% 30% 28% 29%
3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Trading Exports ASEAN Operations MB
16,551 16,823 15,387 16,249 16,731
+1% y-o-y +3% q-o-q Note: International business = ASEAN Operations, exports from Thailand, and Trading business Housing - Roofing products, Board & Wood sub, and Home improvement. Ceramics - includes Sanitary ware and Fittings. Trading - are mainly trading of non-SCG products
28 49 53 51 51 49 52 49 48 49 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Baht/sqm. M sqm.
Average Price Sales volume
Sales volume & prices for all ASEAN subsidiaries
Flat y-o-y +1% q-o-q
Volume change
Ceramic Tiles
Sales volume was flat y-o-y , following weakness in the Thai market.
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0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0
61 62 65 58 57 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Clinker Export Cement Export Average FOB Prices
Sales volume and Average prices (FOB)
$/Ton MT
Cement exports
Exports volume register 1.4 MT in Q1/16, while export prices dropped $4/ton y-o-y as a result of the change in product mix.
Note: FOB price does not include handling charges and discount. THB/USD 32.65 33.27 35.25 35.84 35.67
1.4 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.4
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Outlook
Outlook:
- Domestic cement demand in FY2016 is expected to grow +3% to +5% y-o-y,
depending on the progress of the government’s infrastructure projects and the severity of the ongoing drought conditions. Domestic pricing pressure is expected to continue in light of the strong competition.
- Domestic demand of housing products and ceramic tiles are projected to remain
negative in FY2016.
- In general, ASEAN (ex-Thailand) demand for cement and building materials products
are expected to see continued positive growth.
Plants startup :
- Myanmar cement plant : commercial operation is expected in Q3/16.
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AGENDA
- I. Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
II. SCG Cement - Building Materials
- III. SCG Chemicals
- IV. SCG Packaging
- V. Summary
32
Q1/16 q-o-q change Notes Crude (Brent) $34/bbl
- $10/bbl (-23%)
Oil market remained oversupplied but started to recover from the bottom Naphtha $344/ton
- $101/ton (-23%)
Naphtha continued to drop from low demand due to cracker turnaround Ethylene $1,012/ton
- $21/ton (-2%)
Marginally declined despite a sharp fall in crude owing to firm downstream demand Propylene $649/ton +$62/ton (+11%) Tighter regional supply from unplanned shutdown of on-purposed units HDPE $1,103/ton
- $50/ton (-4%)
Dropped only slightly as healthy demand supported the price PP $934/ton
- $64/ton (-6%)
HDPE-Naphtha $759/ton +$51/ton (+7%) Gaps widened owing to firm demand PP-Naphtha $589/ton +$35/ton (+6%) EDC $234/ton +$18/ton (+8%) Price was in uptrend due to tight supply PVC $727/ton
- $36/ton (-5%)
Seasonal demand still supported PVC despite low oil price PVC-EDC/C2 $302/ton
- $47/ton (-13%)
Spread narrowed from tight EDC and decline in PVC prices MMA-Naphtha $955/ton
- $70/ton (-7%)
Oversupply in China BD-Naphtha $546/ton +$262/ton (+92%) Tight supply from the on-going regional plants unplanned shutdown PTA-PX $66/ton +$2/ton (+3%) New capacity offset by loss of existing capacity due to technical problem
Q1/16 Market Situation
33
300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 $/ton HDPE-N Gap Naphtha Ethylene HDPE
Note: Prices refer to SEA regional prices
HDPE – Naphtha Price Gaps
HDPE spread widened to $759/ton q-o-q due to firm downstream demand
Q1/16 HDPE-N + 9% y-o-y + 7% q-o-q
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 To date
HDPE-Naphtha
620 618 691 802 694 812 774 708 759 819
Spread ($/ton)
682 747
HDPE-C2
113 121 125 234 161 (11) 264 120 91 53
C2-Naphtha
507 496 565 568 532 823 510 588 668 766
` `
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Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 To date PP-Naphtha 626 632 716 819 664 785 672 554 589 741 Spread ($/ton) 698 669 PP-C3 192 304 328 433 325 408 397 412 285 381 C3-Naphtha 434 328 388 385 339 376 275 142 305 360
300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 PP-N Gap Naphtha PP Propylene
PP – Naphtha Price Gaps
PP spread widened to $589/ton q-o-q from healthy demand.
Note: Prices refer to SEA regional prices
$/ton Q1/16 PP-N
- 11% y-o-y
+ 6% q-o-q
`
35
300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 PVC EDC PVC-EDC/C2 Ethylene
PVC
PVC spread narrowed down to $302/ton as EDC edged up slightly from tight supply and as PVC marginally declined amid low oil price.
Note: Prices refer to FE regional prices
$/ton
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 to date PVC-EDC/C2 336 307 336 348 350 283 339 349 302 330 Spread ($/ton) 332 324
Q1/16 PVC-EDC/C2
- 14% y-o-y
- 13% q-o-q
` `
36
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 to date BZ-Naphtha 355 323 394 299 161 228 196 146 212 239 TL-Naphtha 193 153 258 191 159 235 203 212 260 264 BZ-Spread 343 183 TL Spread 199 202
300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800
Benzene & Toluene
BZ-Naphtha: Benzene price rose with continuing strong SM price. TL-Naphtha: Gap improved from strong Chinese import demand to restock low inventory.
Toluene
Naphtha
Note: Prices refer to SEA regional prices
$/ton Q1/16 Toluene-N + 64% y-o-y + 23% q-o-q
Benzene
Q1/16 Benzene-N + 32% y-o-y + 45% q-o-q
` ` ` `
37
50 100 150 200 250 300 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 to date MMA-N 1,120 1,131 1,240 1,558 1,499 1,291 1,222 1,025 955 936 PTA-PX 68 63 70 75 46 92 57 64 66 88 BD-N 452 329 556 410 238 581 527 284 546 628 Note: BD and MMA prices refer to SEA regional prices, PTA prices refer to Asian regional prices
Price Gaps of Associates
MMA-Naphtha: Spread declined on the back of oversupply in China. PTA-PX: New capacity offset by loss of existing capacity due to technical problem. BD-Naphtha: Tight supply from regional plants unplanned shutdown.
MMA-Naphtha
MMA-Naphtha $/ton, BD-Naphtha $/ton PTA-PX $/ton
BD-Naphtha PTA-PX
38
Q1/15 Q1/16
260,000 283,000 274,000 280,000 310,000 262,000 274,000 289,000 274,000 178,000 180,000 173,000 193,000 190,000 180,000 208,000 184,000 217,000
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 PP PE
Polyolefin Sales Volume
Q1/16 sales volume increased 4% q-o-q with resilient market demand, especially in Thailand.
Ton
438,000 463,000
217,000
447,000 473,000 442,000
190,000 310,000 274,000
491,000 500,000 500,000 482,000 473,000 491,000
- 2% y-o-y
+ 4% q-o-q
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Q1/15 Q1/16 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 ASEAN Operations Domestic Operations
PVC Sales Volume
Q1/16 sales volume grew 7% q-o-q on the back of seasonal demand and 15% y-o-y due to increased VCM capacity from debottlenecking in Q2/15.
Note: *ASEAN Operations = Sales volume from PVC operations in Vietnam and Indonesia
161,000 176,000
203,000 177,000
169,000 177,000 179,000
69% 70% 68% 70% 68% 70% 65% 35% 30% 32% 30% 32% 30% 31%
188,000
66% 34%
189,000
64% 36%
Ton + 15% y-o-y + 7% q-o-q
203,000
35% 65%
181,000
71% 29%
40
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Note: * ASEAN operations = Sales revenue from PVC operations in Vietnam and Indonesia
Revenue from Sales
Q1/16 revenue slightly improved at 47,810 MB q-o-q due to higher sales volume.
60,826 64,958 64,337 57,997 47,956 MB 53,636 47,956 47,810 51,591
0% y-o-y 1% q-o-q
47,250 47,810 Q1/15 Q1/16
Flat
41
4,834 4,671 5,745 6,151 6,600 13,169 10,861 9,921 11,390 153 970 1,863 1,755 111 1,452 42 744 131
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Dividend EBITDA from Operations Q1/15 Q1/16
6,600 Note: EBITDA = EBITDA from Operations + Dividend from Associated Companies
EBITDA
Q1/16 EBITDA slightly increased q-o-q to 11,652 MB on enhanced spreads
EBITDA 8% 7% 9% 11% 14% 25% 21% 21% 24% 14% 24% Margin 5,641 4,987 7,608 7,906 6,711 MB 14,621 10,903
11,390 111
+ 72% y-o-y + 8% q-o-q
10,665 11,521
6,711
131
11,521
42
Q1/15 Q1/16
678 445 1,107 565 1,495 2,900 1,456 1,348 2,942
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Equity Income Subsidiaries
NCI (330) (240) (650) (740) (680) (3,600) (1,540) (1,140) (2,820) (680) (2,820) (Non controlling interest) Inventory 180 (80) (130) (2,960) (930) 970 (2,160) 330 (300) (930) (300) Gain (Loss)**
8,980 2,259
Profit for the Period
Profit increased to 9,111 MB mainly due to improved equity income from associated companies
*Sub/Asso : 67%/33% **Note: SCG Chemicals (Sub + Asso)
4,188
2,942
3,534
1,495
MB 2,480 9,182
4,938 8,980
6,838
+ 82% y-o-y + 19% q-o-q
7,530 4,938
43
Outlook
- Crude – gradually recovers due to easing oversupply situation
- Naphtha – naphtha following crude price amid cracker turnaround season
- Polyolefin – cost push from continued rising feedstock prices from cracker turnaround
season
- PVC – strong demand from healthy season for agriculture and construction
Company highlight:
- Chandra Asri (30%): ramping up, following the debottleneck in late-2015
- Longson Petrochemical (46%): in progress of negotiating with potential partners
- Rayong Olefins (consolidated): 40-day cracker shutdown for scheduled maintenance in
Q4/16
- Thai Plastic and Chemicals (consolidated): 23-day VCM plant shutdown for scheduled
maintenance in Q2/16
44
AGENDA
- I. Consolidated Results
- Q1/16 Consolidated Results
- Financial Updates
II. SCG Cement - Building Materials
- III. SCG Chemicals
- IV. SCG Packaging
- V. Summary
45
Packaging Paper
Packaging paper prices maintained due to stable-to-soft demand in the region while AOCC prices dropped due to low demand in China during Chinese New Year.
Note: regional prices
150 300 450 600 $/Ton
Packaging Paper Recovered Paper (AOCC) Apr/16
165-175 445-455
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15
480 180
Q1
470
Q2/15
190
Q3/15
460 190
Q4/15
450 180
Q1/16
450 170
46
59% 57% 57% 57% 60% 20% 21% 21% 21% 19% 21% 22% 22% 22% 21%
528 539 552 561 584
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
ASEAN Operations* Thailand Export Thailand Domestic
Packaging Paper
Total sales volume increased 4% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y mainly from higher domestic sales.
’000 tons Note: *Sales Volume from Philippines and Vietnam
(65%) (67%)
59% 60% 20% 19% 21% 21%
528 584
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1/15 Q1/16
+11% y-o-y + 4% q-o-q +12% y-o-y + 9% q-o-q
47
Fibrous (Printing & Writing Paper)
Printing & Writing paper prices declined from poor demand. Short fiber pulp prices dropped sharply due to oversupply and low demand.
200 400 600 800 1,000
Short Fiber P&W Paper Long Fiber
$/Ton
715-725 575-585
Apr/16
485-495 795
645
595
Q1
Note: regional prices
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15
785
660
630
Q3/15
755
630
645
Q4/15
735
595
620
Q1/16
725
580
525
48
Fibrous (Printing & Writing Paper)
Total sales volume increased 6% q-o-q owing to improved domestic demand and higher export sales, but flat y-o-y.
75% 72% 25% 28%
123 123
50 100 150 Q1/15 Q1/16
75% 73% 73% 72% 72% 25% 27% 27% 28% 28%
123 119 118 116 123
50 100 150 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Export Domestic ’000 tons
Flat
- 3% y-o-y
+ 6% q-o-q
Flat y-o-y + 6% q-o-q
49
Revenue from Sales
Revenue from Sales in Q1/16 increased 2% q-o-q and 10% y-o-y mainly from higher domestic sales in Packaging chain.
12,390 12,621 13,341 13,645 14,104 4,721 4,551 4,876 4,762 4,743
17,111 17,172 18,217 18,407 18,847
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Fibrous Chain Packaging Chain MB 12,390 14,104 4,721 4,743
17,111 18,847
Q1/15 Q1/16
Flat
72% 73% 73% 74% 75% 72% 75% Packaging as percent
- f total
+10% y-o-y +2% q-o-q
50
2,693 2,512 2,580 3,046 3,143 878 764 645 1,176 1,255 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
+43% y-o-y + 7% q-o-q
878 1,255 Q1/15 Q1/16
MB
16% 17% 16% 17%
EBITDA Margin
EBITDA EBITDA
Profit for the period (MB)
EBITDA and Profit for the Period
Improved performance in Q1/16 both q-o-q and y-o-y mainly due to higher sales volume and cost improvement.
2,693 3,143
Q1/15 Q1/16
EBITDA (MB) +17% y-o-y + 3% q-o-q
Profit for the period Profit for the period
Packaging 17% 16% 15% 15% 18% Fibrous 13% 11% 12% 12% 14% EBITDA Margin Total 16% 15% 14% 17%* 17%
*Remark : Include gain from sale of TBSP shares.
Gain from sale
- f TBSP shares
51
Outlook
Outlook:
- Demand for packaging in Thailand expects to soften after peak period in Q1 and long
holiday in Q2, while regional demand expects to remain stable.
- Regional packaging paper prices expect to maintain due to stable demand.
- Recovered paper prices expect to be flat as no new factor to push up prices.
- Short-fiber pulp prices expect to drop further due to competition, although long fiber
prices expect to maintain.
52