An Economic Outlook Paula Tkac, Senior Vice President and Associate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ECONversatio ions An Economic Outlook Paula Tkac, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director February 21, 2018 For the latest news: frbatlanta.org/subscribe Bridging Networks for Better Policy The Atlanta Fed Model President
Paula Tkac, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director
February 21, 2018
The Atlanta Fed Model
President Bostic
Current GDPNow for 2018Q1 = 3.2%
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1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP Growth
percent change - annual rate saar, billions chained 2009$
Q1 average = 1.2% Q2-Q4 average = 2.5%
Source: BEA
Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations Survey
5 10 15 20 25 Geopolitical Risk Demand/Sales Technological Change General Economic Concerns Regulation Fiscal Policy Profitability Competition Tax Policy Input Costs Labor Costs Labor Quality/Availability
We would like you to think more generally about your firm. Looking ahead into 2018, what are the biggest areas of concern?
frequency of mentions (collated from open-ended responses)
Labor Market Spider Chart
Maximum (outer ring) Minimum (inner ring) Median (middle ring)
Non-wage benefits Skill-based ‘tightness’ and wage premiums Substitute technology Increase ‘job’ duties
Training
Industry + Geographic ‘Tightness’ Reducing ‘barriers’
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data through August 2017 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; FRB Dallas; Haver Analytics; staff calculations
FOMC’s inflation target
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
PCE Price Index
year-over-year percent change, monthly PCE Core PCE PCE: 10-year annualized rate
Statement of Economic Projections: December 2017 What is your assessment of the appropriate target range/level for the Federal Funds Rate?
Paula Tkac, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director
February 21, 2018