A Report on Scientific and Economic Information that Supports - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A Report on Scientific and Economic Information that Supports Increases in Multispecies Groundfish Annual Catch Limits

SSC Review March 30 – 31, 2011

Paul Diodati (DMF) and Brian Rothschild (SMAST) – Co-chairs; Steve Cadrin, Dan Georgianna, Kevin Stokesbury, Emily Keiley, Cate O’Keefe (SMAST); David Pierce, Melanie Griffin, Micah Dean & Story Reed (DMF)

Outline

Section I: Introduction

• Scope of Presentation
• Recommendations
• Allocations of ACE

Section II: Economic Impacts from 2010 ACLs

• Distribution of Total Revenues
• Distribution of Groundfish Revenues

Section III: Performance Indicators

• Total Landings, Revenue & Price
• % of ACL landed
• Other Proposed Indicators

Section IV: Economic Risk Analysis for ABC

• Social & Economic Costs of Precaution
• Economic & Social Analysis

Section 1: Introduction Section 1: Introduction

Presentation Scope

• Review of the information presented in the MFI

Report

• Updated analysis through December 2010
• Performance Indicators
• Incorporating Social and Economic data into the

calculation of ABCs

Recommendations

• Collect additional economic and social data (costs,

employment)

• Consider economic and social data in the determination of

ABC buffers

• Make available economic and social information to the

Council, SSC, and PDT to aid in decisions

• Present timely socio-economic analysis (annual and semi-

annual review and assessment of the performance of management plans after implementation)

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2010 ACE Allocation vs. 2009 Landings in MA

Number of Permits STOCK ACE > FY09 Landings ACE < FY09 Landings No FY09 Landings Sum of Deficits in Pounds* Value of Losers Deficits Georges Bank Cod 64 84 352 1,425,057 $ 2,078,629 Gulf of Maine Cod 38 131 331 5,249,153 $ 7,656,564 Georges Bank Haddock 114 11 375 279,129 $ 308,567 Gulf of Maine Haddock 95 55 350 332,255 $ 367,297 Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder 24 59 417 773,723 $ 1,013,660 SNE/MA Yellowtail Flounder 7 15 478 14,959 $ 19,598 CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 54 106 340 496,743 $ 650,787 Plaice 124 66 310 763,663 $ 1,037,276 Witch Flounder 76 112 312 705,564 $ 1,411,003 Georges Bank Winter Flounder 31 49 420 1,028,636 $ 1,699,616 Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder 54 77 369 213,753 $ 353,184 Redfish 106 39 355 791,708 $ 375,192 White Hake 84 61 355 400,613 $ 493,835 Pollock 73 142 285 4,602,257 $ 3,604,083 TOTAL 17,077,212 $ 21,069,290

* Calculation based on the sum of ACE for those permits that the 2010 allocation was less than the FY2009 Landings

Section II: Economic Impacts from Section II: Economic Impacts from 2010 ACLs 2010 ACLs

Figure 1a. (Top) Top 10% of MA Sector Fishing Vessels The top 10% (50 vessels) of the Massachusetts groundfishing fleet has accounted for 59% percent of revenues from May 1 to Dec 31, 2011. This is 14% higher than the previous 5- year average. Figure 1b. (Bottom) Bottom 90% of MA Sector Fishing Vessels The bottom 90% (450 vessels) of the Massachusetts groundfishing fleet accounted for 41% percent of revenues from May 1 to Dec 31, 2011. This is 14% less than the previous 5-year average.

51.37 51.47 50.84 48.91 51.19 59.05 10 20 30 40 50 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Percent of Total Revenues (%) 48.63 48.53 49.16 51.09 48.81 40.95 10 20 30 40 50 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Percent of Total Revenues (%)

1 1 1 1 1

TO TA L R E V E N U E (U S D , $) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 V E S S E L S ( N U M B E R )

Density Plot of Total MA Revenue

2005 – 2010 (May 1 – Dec 31)

_2010 _2009 _2008 _2007 _2006 _2005

Total Revenue (USD, $) Vessels (Number) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

6 . 6 6 6 6 7 E + 5 1 . 3 3 3 3 3 E + 6 2 . E + 6

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Total MA Revenue: Quantile Plot

2010 vs. 2005-2009 Average (May 1 – Dec 31)

Fraction of Vessels 2005 – 2009 Average 2010 Total Revenue (USD, $)

1 1 1 1 1 1

G R O U N D FIS HR E V E N U E(U S D $) 20 40 60 80 100 V E S S E L S ( N U M B E R )

Density Plot of MA Groundfish Revenue

2005 – 2010 (May 1 – Dec 31)

_2010 _2009 _2008 _2007 _2006 _2005

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Groundfish Revenue (USD, $) Vessels (Number)

500000 1000000 1500000

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

MA Groundfish Revenue: Quantile Plot

2010 vs. 2005-2009 Average (May 1 – Dec 31)

2005 – 2009 Average 2010 Fraction of Vessels Groundfish Revenue (USD, $)

Section 3: Performance Indicators Section 3: Performance Indicators

NE Groundfish Landings and Revenue

May 1 – December 31

Source: NERO WEB SITE www.nero.noaa.gov/ro/fso/reports/2009_2010_Comparison.htm

Species 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 Cod 5,698 3,836 $14,761 $15,023 $1.18 $1.78 Plaice 797 788 $1,868 $2,360 $1.07 $1.36 Winter Fl 1,454 1,261 $5,176 $5,621 $1.62 $2.03 Witch Fl 512 324 $2,188 $1,897 $1.94 $2.66 Yellowtail Fl 853 545 $2,171 $1,709 $1.16 $1.43 Haddock 3,072 5,681 $6,834 $13,352 $1.01 $1.07 Hake 1,071 925 $1,912 $2,180 $0.81 $1.07 Pollock 4,185 2,771 $5,421 $5,048 $0.59 $0.83 Redfish 791 1,138 $760 $1,286 $0.44 $0.51 Total 18,433 17,269 $41,091 $48,476 $1.01 $1.28 Landings (Metric Tons) Revenue (USD, $) Prices (USD, $)

Percent Change between 2009 and 2010

Summary Information

Attribute Percent Change (%) Total Groundfish Landings

• 7%

Total Groundfish Revenue + 16% Total Groundfish Prices + 23%

Prices for Substitutes

PRODUCT SOURCE CHANGE from 2009 - 2010 Beef Wholesale USDA



15 % Pork Wholesale USDA



15% Chicken Wholesale USDA



10 % Scallops Whaling City Auction (Avg)



24 % Monkfish Whaling City Auction



23 %

Northeast Multispecies Fishery

Aggregate Annual Catch Limit and Landings

Projected 2010 landings* (for sectors and common pool) 29,745 MTs (34% of the ACL)

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Weight (Metric Tons) TAC Landings 2010 OFL 2010 ABC 2010 ACL

*Projection based on the average monthly landings, by species, during the first 9 months of the fishing year

2010 OFL 2010 ABC 2010 ACL

Proposed Performance Indicators

• Financial Viability (profitability)
• Distributional Outcomes (concentration of quota,

landings, and effort)

• Stewardship (compliance)
• Governance (Effectiveness)
• Well-being (healthy fishing communities)

From Clay, daSilva & Kitts, 2010

Section IV: Economic Risk Analysis for ABCs Section IV: Economic Risk Analysis for ABCs

Probability of Overfishing

(P*) set to 25%

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fishing Mortality Rate Probability Density 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fishing Mortality Rate Probability Density

FMSY FMSY

Lower Uncertainty Higher Uncertainty

FABC = 0.43 FABC = 0.36

P*=25% P*=25%

Probability of Overfishing: Scallop Example

Optimum yield can be based on probability of overfishing (P*<50%) and other risks that account for “any relevant economic, social, or ecological factor” to “provide the greatest overall benefit to the Nation.”

NEFSC 2010

Uncertainty Buffers

Stochastic projections of groundfish stocks can be used to evaluate probability of overfishing and foregone yield (in mt or $)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 15 16 17 18 19 20 Foregone Yield ($M) Probability of 2012F>F40% 2012 Catch

2012 Pollock Projections

P* Foregone yield

75%F40 F40 Projected catch and P* from Groundfish PDT (2010)

Economic & Social Impact Analysis of Lost Yield (Cost of Precaution)

• Estimate lost net yield (include costs in

analysis)

• Estimate other indicators of loss

Suggestions for Including Social & Economic Indicators for ABCs

MAFMC SSC Process Work with Fishery Advisory Panel and staff to create “performance reports” on management of fishery for SSC consideration in setting ABC Use first for data poor fisheries where catch is used to set ABC

Findings

• Increased total revenue does not indicate success in

multispecies fishery management.

• Increased prices do not necessarily indicate success in

multispecies fishery management.

• Revenue from groundfish and from all species has

declined for most MA vessels.

Recommendations

• Collect additional economic and social data (costs,

employment)

• Consider economic and social data in the determination of

ABC buffers

• Make available economic and social information to the

Council, SSC, and PDT to aid in decisions

• Present timely socio-economic analysis (annual and semi-

annual review and assessment of the performance of management plans after implementation)

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