A Report on Scientific and Economic Information that Supports Increases in Multispecies Groundfish Annual Catch Limits SSC Review March 30 – 31, 2011 Paul Diodati (DMF) and Brian Rothschild (SMAST) – Co-chairs; Steve Cadrin, Dan Georgianna, Kevin Stokesbury, Emily Keiley, Cate O’Keefe (SMAST); David Pierce, Melanie Griffin, Micah Dean & Story Reed (DMF)
Outline Section I: Introduction • Scope of Presentation • Recommendations • Allocations of ACE Section II: Economic Impacts from 2010 ACLs • Distribution of Total Revenues • Distribution of Groundfish Revenues Section III: Performance Indicators • Total Landings, Revenue & Price • % of ACL landed • Other Proposed Indicators Section IV : Economic Risk Analysis for ABC • Social & Economic Costs of Precaution • Economic & Social Analysis
Section 1: Introduction Section 1: Introduction
Presentation Scope Review of the information presented in the MFI Report Updated analysis through December 2010 Performance Indicators Incorporating Social and Economic data into the calculation of ABCs
Recommendations Collect additional economic and social data (costs, employment) Consider economic and social data in the determination of ABC buffers Make available economic and social information to the Council, SSC, and PDT to aid in decisions Present timely socio-economic analysis (annual and semi- annual review and assessment of the performance of management plans after implementation ) 5
2010 ACE Allocation vs. 2009 Landings in MA Number of Permits Sum of ACE > FY09 ACE < FY09 No FY09 Value of Losers STOCK Deficits in Landings Landings Landings Deficits Pounds* Georges Bank Cod 64 84 352 1,425,057 $ 2,078,629 Gulf of Maine Cod 38 131 331 5,249,153 $ 7,656,564 Georges Bank Haddock 114 11 375 279,129 $ 308,567 Gulf of Maine Haddock 95 55 350 332,255 $ 367,297 Georges Bank Yellowtail 24 59 417 773,723 $ 1,013,660 Flounder SNE/MA Yellowtail Flounder 7 15 478 14,959 $ 19,598 CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 54 106 340 496,743 $ 650,787 Plaice 124 66 310 763,663 $ 1,037,276 Witch Flounder 76 112 312 705,564 $ 1,411,003 Georges Bank Winter Flounder 31 49 420 1,028,636 $ 1,699,616 Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder 54 77 369 213,753 $ 353,184 Redfish 106 39 355 791,708 $ 375,192 White Hake 84 61 355 400,613 $ 493,835 Pollock 73 142 285 4,602,257 $ 3,604,083 TOTAL 17,077,212 $ 21,069,290 * Calculation based on the sum of ACE for those permits that the 2010 allocation was less than the FY2009 Landings
Section II: Economic Impacts from Section II: Economic Impacts from 2010 ACLs 2010 ACLs
59.05 60 Figure 1a. (Top) 51.37 51.47 51.19 50.84 48.91 Top 10% of MA Sector Fishing Vessels 50 Percent of Total Revenues (%) 40 The top 10% (50 vessels) of the Massachusetts groundfishing fleet has 30 accounted for 59% percent of revenues from May 1 to Dec 31, 2011. 20 10 This is 14% higher than the previous 5- year average. 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 60 Figure 1b. (Bottom) 51.09 49.16 48.81 48.63 48.53 Bottom 90% of MA Sector Fishing Vessels 50 Percent of Total Revenues (%) 40.95 40 The bottom 90% (450 vessels) of the Massachusetts groundfishing fleet accounted 30 for 41% percent of revenues from May 1 to Dec 31, 2011. 20 10 This is 14% less than the previous 5-year average. 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Density Plot of Total MA Revenue 2005 – 2010 (May 1 – Dec 31) 70 60 ) R E 50 _2005 2005 Vessels (Number) B M _2006 2006 U _2007 2007 40 N _2008 2008 ( S _2009 2009 L 30 E _2010 2010 S S E 20 V 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 TO TA Total Revenue (USD, $) L R E V E N U E (U S D , $)
Total MA Revenue: Quantile Plot 2010 vs. 2005-2009 Average (May 1 – Dec 31) 1.0 0.9 0.8 2005 – 2009 Average Fraction of Vessels 0.7 2010 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 5 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 + + + 0 E E E 0 7 3 0 0 6 3 0 6 3 0 6 3 0 6 3 0 . . . 6 1 2 Total Revenue (USD, $)
Density Plot of MA Groundfish Revenue 2005 – 2010 (May 1 – Dec 31) 100 80 ) R E _2005 2005 Vessels (Number) B _2006 2006 M 60 U _2007 2007 N _2008 2008 ( S _2009 2009 L 40 _2010 E 2010 S S E V 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 Groundfish Revenue (USD, $) G R O U N D FIS HR E V E N U E(U S D $)
MA Groundfish Revenue: Quantile Plot 2010 vs. 2005-2009 Average (May 1 – Dec 31) 1.0 0.9 2005 – 2009 Average 0.8 Fraction of Vessels 2010 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 500000 1000000 1500000 Groundfish Revenue (USD, $)
Section 3: Performance Indicators Section 3: Performance Indicators
NE Groundfish Landings and Revenue May 1 – December 31 Landings (Metric Tons) Revenue (USD, $) Prices (USD, $) Species 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 Cod 5,698 3,836 $14,761 $15,023 $1.18 $1.78 Plaice 797 788 $1,868 $2,360 $1.07 $1.36 Winter Fl 1,454 1,261 $5,176 $5,621 $1.62 $2.03 Witch Fl 512 324 $2,188 $1,897 $1.94 $2.66 Yellowtail Fl 853 545 $2,171 $1,709 $1.16 $1.43 Haddock 3,072 5,681 $6,834 $13,352 $1.01 $1.07 Hake 1,071 925 $1,912 $2,180 $0.81 $1.07 Pollock 4,185 2,771 $5,421 $5,048 $0.59 $0.83 Redfish 791 1,138 $760 $1,286 $0.44 $0.51 Total 18,433 17,269 $41,091 $48,476 $1.01 $1.28 Source: NERO WEB SITE www.nero.noaa.gov/ro/fso/reports/2009_2010_Comparison.htm
Percent Change between 2009 and 2010 Summary Information Attribute Percent Change (%) Total Groundfish Landings - 7% Total Groundfish Revenue + 16% Total Groundfish Prices + 23%
Prices for Substitutes CHANGE PRODUCT SOURCE from 2009 - 2010 Beef USDA 15 % Wholesale Pork USDA 15% Wholesale Chicken USDA 10 % Wholesale Scallops Whaling City Auction (Avg) 24 % Monkfish Whaling City Auction 23 %
Northeast Multispecies Fishery Aggregate Annual Catch Limit and Landings TAC 200,000 Landings 2010 OFL 180,000 2010 ABC 2010 ACL 160,000 140,000 2010 OFL Weight (Metric Tons) 120,000 2010 ABC 100,000 2010 ACL 80,000 60,000 Projected 2010 landings* (for 40,000 sectors and common pool) 29,745 MTs 20,000 (34% of the ACL) 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 *Projection based on the average monthly landings, by species, during the first 9 months of the fishing year
Proposed Performance Indicators Financial Viability (profitability) Distributional Outcomes (concentration of quota, landings, and effort) Stewardship (compliance) Governance (Effectiveness) Well-being (healthy fishing communities) From Clay, daSilva & Kitts, 2010
Section IV: Economic Risk Analysis for ABCs Section IV: Economic Risk Analysis for ABCs
Probability of Overfishing (P*) set to 25% F ABC = 0.43 F ABC = 0.36 F MSY F MSY 1.0 1.0 Lower Higher Uncertainty Uncertainty 0.8 0.8 Probability Density Probability Density 0.6 0.6 P*=25% P*=25% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fishing Mortality Rate Fishing Mortality Rate
Probability of Overfishing: Scallop Example NEFSC 2010 Optimum yield can be based on probability of overfishing ( P* <50%) and other risks that account for “ any relevant economic, social, or ecological factor ” to “ provide the greatest overall benefit to the Nation. ”
Uncertainty Buffers Stochastic projections of groundfish stocks can be used to evaluate probability of overfishing and foregone yield (in mt or $) 0.6 9 2012 Pollock Projections 8 0.5 Probability of 2012F>F40% 7 Foregone Yield ($M) 0.4 6 5 0.3 4 0.2 3 P* 2 0.1 1 Foregone yield 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 2012 Catch 75%F40 F40 Projected catch and P* from Groundfish PDT (2010)
Economic & Social Impact Analysis of Lost Yield (Cost of Precaution) Estimate lost net yield (include costs in analysis) Estimate other indicators of loss
Suggestions for Including Social & Economic Indicators for ABCs MAFMC SSC Process Work with Fishery Advisory Panel and staff to create “performance reports” on management of fishery for SSC consideration in setting ABC Use first for data poor fisheries where catch is used to set ABC
Findings Increased total revenue does not indicate success in multispecies fishery management. Increased prices do not necessarily indicate success in multispecies fishery management. Revenue from groundfish and from all species has declined for most MA vessels.
Recommendations Collect additional economic and social data (costs, employment) Consider economic and social data in the determination of ABC buffers Make available economic and social information to the Council, SSC, and PDT to aid in decisions Present timely socio-economic analysis (annual and semi- annual review and assessment of the performance of management plans after implementation ) 26
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