A&D Forum Space Entrepenuerism An Engineering Firm Specializing In Fluid Dynamics and Thermodynamics Solutions .
Flometrics, Inc. provides engineering services, skills and expertise for applications involving fluid dynamics and thermodynamics. Supersonic Land Speed Industries served: Record car • Aerospace • Medical Device • Consumer Products • Electronics & Semiconductor Liquid fuel Rocket
2014 UCSD Student Project : Design, build and test Rocket test stand. Funded in part by NASA Space Grant 3
2016 UCSD Student Project : Test fuel Emulsion with Rocket test stand. Funded in part by NASA Space Grant 4
Some thoughts on entrepreneurial space : Project needs: •Solid management team: executive, financial, marketing and engineering •Good idea that relieves customer pain. Potential IP protection. •Unfair competitive advantage, nobody else can do it. •Plan to make money delivering solution to customer. •Understanding of the competition, how do they get customers, what will they do to keep them? •Plan to get into the market. Who will buy? Do they have money? •Plan to repay your investors. •It will cost twice as much as you think and your profits will be half, your business case must still close in this case. “There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct Or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things” Machiavelli
Foolish Spacecraft/Rocket Design Sketch out cool design, issue press release, find investors or government funded suckers Project Phases: 1) Enthusiasm (I’m a rocket scientist!) 2) Disillusionment (wait…this is hard) 3) Panic (Uh-oh we’re out of money) 4) Search for the guilty( whose idea was this?) 5) Punishment of the innocent (why can’t you test the part that doesn’t work?) 6) Praise for the non-participants (I’d like to thank my wife for not leaving me) *Not enough room for propellant 7) Develop project requirements (next pg) 8) Back to step 1 ^
Failed government rocket projects Stated/Actual Goal: Improved access to space/ Improved re-election prospects Reality: burn taxpayer money, create temporary jobs, make politicians popular Why did these all fail? Excess technical risk. Sold on OML Insufficient budget Unrealistic schedule Result Angry taxpayers Suspicious legislators Indifferent engineers No significant progress Solution NASA only works on Leo and above. Propellant Depots Space assembly Infrastructure pre-postioning Unmanned dry runs.
Real Spacecraft design •Develop requirements •Determine components •Determine specifications •Preliminary design • Determine realistic budget •e.g. Cassini (right): $3B Adjust specifications/requirements to fit budget (no cheating yourself ) •Underestimate budget > •Angry investors (private) •Angry taxpayers (government) •Less credibility next time for everyone •Can a private company do it cheaper than a Gov Agency? •X-15 500 flights, $300M in 1968 dollars, $3M/flight (2007 $)* •SpaceShip 1 Six flights, $20M $3M/flight •Delta 2 $50M/launch in 2007 (not including development) •SpaceX $$60M/launch ( $1B investment in Jan.) •Answer: Maybe, but not 10x cheaper * All costs approximate. Note: CPI is BS, but that’s another story
Failed Private rocket projects Stated/Actual Goal: Improved access to space/ Show everyone how smart we are Reality: Burn investor money, Loss of credibility, But: respect from peers Why did these all fail? Excess technical risk Insufficient market Sold on OML Insufficient budget Unrealistic schedule Results Angry investors Suspicious customers Industry-wide lack of credibility Harder to get money next time
Typical Development Budgets 787 $16B Supersonic BizJet $3+B Subsonic trainer (India) $47M Regional Jet (Brazil) $300M
Proposed Development Budgets: X SS2 $.75B EADS $1B X X Xcor $.01B Rocketplane $.04B
Goal: Access to space, for more than just astronauts and wealthy people. Need more realistic budgets, you can’t reduce the cost by lowering the estimate. Quote half of realistic budget, not pennies on the dollar, otherwise investors walk. If you can’t do it for the budget, change the project. Larger, less efficient organization required for major project Complex R&D projects are difficult to estimate. Less technology development in house Buy, don’t make, Use strategic partnerships with vendors. Government buy in (free money is not free) Warning: DCAA audits can be painful. Share risks (that’s how Boeing and Airbus do it) Combine skills and capital of various companies to achieve a shared goal
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