4Q2009 Earnings Presentation Discussion of Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
4Q2009 Earnings Presentation Discussion of Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
4Q2009 Earnings Presentation Discussion of Forward-Looking Statements The information in this document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the
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Discussion of Forward-Looking Statements
The information in this document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Such statements are based upon current expectations that involve risks and uncertainties. Any statements contained herein that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. For example, words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential,” “continue,” “strategy,” “believes,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “expects,” “intends” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward- looking statements. Our actual results and the outcome and timing of certain events may differ significantly from the expectations discussed in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such a discrepancy include, but are not limited to: our relationship with Cantor Fitzgerald, L.P. and its affiliates (“Cantor”) and any related conflicts of interest, competition for and retention of brokers and other managers and key employees, reliance on Cantor for liquidity and capital and other relationships; pricing and commissions and market position with respect to any of our products and services and those of our competitors; the effect of industry concentration and reorganization, reduction of customers and consolidation; liquidity, clearing capital requirements and the impact of recent credit market events and regulations requiring central clearing or exchange-based execution for certain of our products; market conditions, including trading volume and volatility, and further deterioration of the equity and debt capital markets; economic or geopolitical conditions or uncertainties; the extensive regulation of the Company’s businesses, changes in regulations relating to the financial services industry, and risks relating to compliance matters; factors related to specific transactions or series of transactions, including credit, performance and unmatched principal risk, as well as counterparty failure; the costs and expenses of developing, maintaining and protecting intellectual property, including judgments or settlements paid or received in connection with intellectual property, or employment or other litigation and their related costs; certain financial risks, including the possibility of future losses and negative cash flow from operations, potential liquidity and other risks relating to the ability to obtain financing or refinancing of existing debt, and risks of the resulting leverage, as well as interest and currency rate fluctuations; the ability to enter new markets or develop new products, trading desks, marketplaces
- r services and to induce customers to use these products, trading desks, marketplaces or services and to secure and maintain market share; the ability to enter into
marketing and strategic alliances and other transactions, including acquisitions, dispositions, reorganizations, partnering opportunities and joint ventures, and the integration
- f any completed transactions; the ability to hire new personnel; the ability to expand the use of technology for our hybrid platform, including screen-assisted, voice-assisted
and fully electronic trading; effectively managing any growth that may be achieved; financial reporting, accounting and internal control factors, including identification of any material weaknesses in our internal controls and our ability to prepare historical and pro forma financial statements and reports in a timely manner; the effectiveness of risk management policies and procedures, including the ability to detect and deter unauthorized trading or fraud, unexpected market moves and similar events; the ability to meet expectations with respect to payment of dividends, distributions and repurchases of our common stock or purchases of BGC Holdings, L.P. (“BGC Holdings”) limited partnership interests or other equity interests in our subsidiaries, including from Cantor, our executive officers, and our employees; and the risks and other factors described herein under the heading “Item 1A—Risk Factors” in our most recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 16, 2009, and as updated in subsequent filings on Form 10-Q. The foregoing risks and uncertainties, as well as those risks discussed under the heading “Item 7A—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” and elsewhere in our most recent 10-K and subsequent filings on Form 10-Q, may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. The information included herein is given as of the filing date of our most recent Form 10-K with the SEC, as updated from time to time in subsequent filings on Form 10-Q, and future events
- r circumstances could differ significantly from these forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Our discussions in financial releases often summarize the significant factors affecting our results of operations and financial condition during the years ended December 31, 2008, 2007 and 2006, respectively. This discussion is provided to increase the understanding of, and should be read in conjunction with, our Consolidated Financial Statements and the accompanying Notes thereto included elsewhere in our most recent Form 10-K.
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Distributable Earnings
Unless otherwise stated, throughout this presentation we refer to our results only on a distributable
earnings basis
Revenues for distributable earnings are defined as GAAP revenues excluding the non-cash impact of
BGC Partners’ pro rata share of earnings or losses from its equity investments, such as in Aqua Securities, L.P. (“Aqua”) and ELX Electronic Liquidity Exchange (“ELX”)
BGC Partners’ discussion and presentation of distributable earnings treats all fully diluted shares of
equity as if converted to a single class of stock and thus excludes the allocation of net income to founding/working partner units and REUs
Pre-tax distributable earnings are defined as GAAP income (loss) from continuing operations before
income taxes and non-controlling interests in subsidiaries excluding non-cash, non-dilutive, and non- economic items
Post-tax distributable earnings are defined as pre-tax distributable earnings adjusted to assume that
all pre-tax distributable earnings were taxed at the same effective rate.
For a complete description of this term and how, when and why management uses it, and a
reconciliation to GAAP, see the section of BGC’s 4Q2009 financial results release titled “Distributable Earnings”,, which is incorporated by reference, and available in the “Investor Relations” section of our website at www.bgcpartners.com
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4Q2009 Distributable Earnings Highlights
Revenues were up 4.2% to $299.8 million versus $287.6 million in 4Q2008 Pre-tax earnings were up 103.1% to $23.0 million versus $11.3 million in 4Q2008 Pre-tax earnings per share were up 83.3% y-o-y to $0.11 Post-tax earnings were up 84.8% to $14.8 million versus $8.0 million in 4Q2008 Post-tax earnings per fully diluted share were up 75.0% y-o-y to $0.07 The pre-tax earnings margin improved to 7.7% of revenues while the post-tax
earnings margin improved to 5.0% versus 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, in 4Q2008
BGC Partners’ Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per
share payable on March 22, 2010 to Class A and Class B common stockholders of record as of March 8, 2010
Note: See the third page of this document entitled “Distributable Earnings” for a definition of this term and how, when and why management uses it.
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1Q2010 Outlook
Revenues of between $340 million and $360 million, up 19% - 26% y-o-y Pre-tax distributable earnings of approximately $38 million to $43 million, up 26% -
43% y-o-y versus $30.1 million in 1Q2009
Post-tax distributable earnings of approximately $27 million to $31 million, versus
$22.6 million in 1Q2009
The Company anticipates having an effective tax rate for distributable earnings of
approximately 28% for 2010
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4Q2009 Global Revenue Breakdown
New York Chicago Toronto Mexico City London Copenhagen Paris Nyon Istanbul Beijing (Rep Office) Seoul Tokyo Sydney Singapore Hong Kong
Asia Pacific 16% Americas 29% EMEA 55%
Note: Based on Distributable Earnings. For the purposes of this chart, $2.9 million related to the non-cash impact of BGC Partners’ pro rata share of losses from its equity investments, such as in Aqua Securities, L.P. (“Aqua”) and ELX Electronic Liquidity Exchange (“ELX”) for the fourth quarter was added back to “Americas” GAAP revenues. In the year earlier period, the amount added back was $2.1 million.
Johannesburg São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Moscow
Americas Revenue increased by 17.5% y-o-y Asia Pacific Revenue increased by 18.6% y-o-y Europe, Middle East & Africa Revenue decreased by 4.9% y-o-y
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4Q2009 Revenue Breakdown by Product
Credit 23.5% Rates 45.6% Interest &
- ther income
6.9% Market data & software 1.9% Foreign Exchange 9.3% Equities and Other Asset Classes 12.9%
Up 38.2% y-o-y Revenues related to fully electronic trading* = 9.2% of total DE revenues in 4Q2009 vs. 7.0% in 4Q2008
* This includes fees captured in both the “total brokerage revenues” and “ fees from related party” line items related to fully electronic trading.
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$554.1 $524.9 $116.4 $136.6 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 (USD millions) FY 2008 FY 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2009
Brokerage Overview: Rates
- Interest rate derivatives
- US Treasuries
- Global Government Bonds
- Agencies
- Futures
- Dollar derivatives
- Repurchase agreements
- Non-deliverable swaps
- Interest rate swaps & options
Rates Revenue Growth Rates Revenue Growth
17.4%
% of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue % of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products Example of Products
Rates 46%
(5.3%)
- Voice & fully electronic cash rates business
grew due to strong sovereign debt issuance globally
- European rates business activity increased due
to debt issues facing various EU states
- Global IRS activity aided by strong sovereign &
corporate issuance
Drivers Drivers
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UST Issuance Drives Fully Electronic Rates Growth
Source: SIFMA.
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Gross Treasury Issuance Excuding Bills ($ billions) Left Axis BGC FE Rates Volumes ($ trillions) Right Axis
Bear Stearns’ sale to JP Morgan Lehman Brothers Files for Bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch merges with Bank of America, AIG rescue
Treasury Issuance ($ billions) FE Rates Volumes ($ trillions)
10 Treasury Quarterly Net Borrowing
($300) ($200) ($100) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 I-2005 II III IV I-2006 II III IV I-2007 II III IV I-2008 II III IV I-2009 II III IV I II Borrowing ($ in billions)
Over 10 year TIPS 5-10 year TIPS Over 10 years 5-10 years 2-under 5 years Bills
Estimates
Record US Treasury Issuance = Future Tailwind
Source: US Department of the Treasury. Data for Q1 and Q2 2010 are the projected estimates for net borrowing. Treasury Fiscal Year ends September 30th.
Short Term Bills Start Rolling Over to Longer Dated
- BGC generally trades 2-year or longer dated bonds
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US Treasury and Agency Debt Issuance
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2006 2007 2008 2009 Treasury Federal Agency Securities
UST & Agency Issuance Drives Voice & Electronic Rates…
Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)
Growth = 49.3% C A G R = 2 7 . 9 %
$ Billions
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55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Debt (left axis) Deficit (right axis)
…As do EU Deficits and Gross Debt
Source: European Commission
Percent of GDP
- Even as deficits begin to stabilize as a percentage of GDP, gross debt continues to rise
- As national deficits rise, trading in both bonds and their related interest rate and credit derivatives
increases
Percent of GDP
Estimates
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Debts Will Rise Much Faster than GDP Globally
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Net Financial Liabilities as Percent of Nominal GDP
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total OECD United States Japan United Kingdom
Estimates
Percent GDP
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$307.5 $331.4 $83.3 $70.4 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 (USD millions) FY 2008 FY 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2009
Brokerage Overview: Credit
- Credit derivatives
- Asset-backed securities
- Convertibles
- Corporate bonds
- High yield bonds
- Emerging market bonds
Credit Revenue Growth Credit Revenue Growth
7.8%
% of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue % of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products Example of Products
Credit 24%
(15.5%)
- Primarily lower industry-wide cash
bond revenues & CDS activity
- Partially offset by strong y-o-y growth
in fully electronic CDS trading in the US, Asia & Europe
- Sovereign CDS business has picked up
due to various sovereign debt concerns
Drivers Drivers
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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q3 2009
Corporate Debt Issuance Drives Credit
Note: Q3 2009 represents data for the nine month period ended 9/30/09. Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)
$ Billions
C A G R = 9 . 6 %
US Corporate Debt Issuance
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Sovereign CDS Volumes are Strong…
Source: DTCC, Barclays Capital.
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….As Potential Credit Events Dwarf Prior Defaults
Source: Moody’s, IMF, Barclays Capital.
Debt Outstanding: Historical Defaulted (1983 – 2009) vs. Current Non-Defaulted ($bn) Financing Needs for European Sovereigns (% of GDP)
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Brokerage Overview: Equities & Other Asset Classes*
Equities & Other Asset Classes Revenue Growth Equities & Other Asset Classes Revenue Growth
$116.2 $122.5 $29.2 $38.7 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 (USD millions) FY 2008 FY 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 32.5%
% of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue % of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products Example of Products
Equities & Other 13%
- Equity derivatives
- Cash Equities
- Index futures
- Commodities
- Energy derivatives
- Other derivatives and futures
5.5%
- Primarily strong growth globally from
the Company’s equity-related products
- Also, growth from BGC’s energy &
commodities desks
Drivers Drivers
* Formerly knows as simply “Other Asset Classes”
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Option Market Growth Should Help BGC’s Equity Derivatives Desks
Source: The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). Includes Total Equity Option Volumes from AMEX, BOX, CBOE, ISE, NASDAQ, NYX and PHLX.
Average Daily Volume (in thousands)
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan 09 Jan 10
C A G R = 2 5 . 2 %
US Total Industry Average Daily Equity Option Volumes
Growth = 27.0%
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FX 9%
$140.9 $94.8 $30.9 $27.8 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 (USD millions) FY 2008 FY 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2009
Brokerage Overview: Foreign Exchange
- Foreign exchange options
- G-10
- Emerging markets
- Cross currencies
- Exotic options
- Spot FX
- Emerging market FX options
- Exotic FX options
- Non-deliverable forwards
Foreign Exchange Revenue Growth Foreign Exchange Revenue Growth
(32.7%)
% of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue % of 4Q2009 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products Example of Products
( 1 . 1 % )
- Primarily due to lower industry
foreign exchange options volumes, particularly in emerging markets,
- Partially offset by significantly higher
fully electronic revenues
Drivers Drivers
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Spot FX Volatility Returns to Normal…
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 30 Day Volatility Historical Average
Percent Volatility of DXY Index
- CLS Avg. Daily Values in 4Q2009 are up 7.9% vs. 4Q2008 and 7.9% vs. 3Q2009 respectively.
- BGC is growing its market share vs. its competitors
Source: CLS Bank for FX Avg. Daily Values and Bloomberg for FX Volatility. Note: 30 day volatility of the US Dollar Index, DXY. From 2002-Present, Historical Average DXY Index Volatility is 8.16%.
Lehman goes bankrupt, AIG bailed out FX Volatility returns to average levels
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…Overall Industry Spot/Forward FX Growth Returns
Overall FX Spot market is growing again BGC is growing market share; BGC fully electronic FX volumes in both spot and derivatives are up
significantly more than the overall industry in 4Q2009
Source: CLS Bank. Data includes FX spot, swap and outright forward products. Values are the total value of settlement instructions submitted to CLS on trade date. The values should be divided by two for spot and forward values and by four for swap values to equate to the values reported in the BIS tri-annual surveys.
$ Billions
FX Average Daily Values
500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 December 2008 January 2009 December 2009 January 2010
G r
- w
t h = 2 8 . 9 % G r
- w
t h = 7 . 9 %
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$288 $300 $340 $360
$200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 $400 $425 $450 $475 $500 ($ millions)
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 low Q1 2010 high
BGC Revenue Trend (millions)
4.2% Outlook
Note: Revenue is Revenue for Distributable Earnings.
Up 19% - 26% y-o-y
Outlook is for record revenue in 1Q2010; previous high was $338.9 mm in 1Q2008
24 $913.5 $799.5 $201.9 $188.2 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 ($ thousands) 2008 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2009
1,553 1,458 1,444 1,303 1,319 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
4Q 2008 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 2009 4Q 2009 (Front Office Employees)
- On 12/31/2009, BGC Partners had 1,553 front office employees versus 1,458 on 9/30/2009 & 1,319 on 12/31/2008
- Historically, the Company’s average revenue per broker has declined for the periods following significant headcount
- increases. BGC Partners’ new brokers generally achieve higher productivity levels in their second year with the
Company
BGC Front Office Employee Growth
Front Office Productivity (in thousands) Front Office Productivity (in thousands)
Note: Front office productivity is calculated by as “total brokerage revenue,” “market data and software sales revenue,” and the portion of “ fees from related party” line items related to fully electronic trading. Revenue is Revenue for Distributable Earnings.
(6.8%) (12.5%)
Front Office Headcount Front Office Headcount
Q-on-Q Growth: 6.5% Y-on-Y Growth: 17.7%
25 $6.4 $7.9 $9.8 $10.4 $11.7 $0 $5 $10 $15 ($ trillions) 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009
BGC Fully Electronic Growth
Fully Electronic Revenues (in millions)* Fully Electronic Revenues (in millions)*
$20.1 $19.8 $22.5 $25.9 $27.7 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 ($ thousands) 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009
G r
- w
t h 3 8 . 2 %
Fully Electronic Volumes (in trillions) Fully Electronic Volumes (in trillions)
Note: Revenue is Revenue for Distributable Earnings. * This includes fees captured in both the “total brokerage revenues” and “ fees from related party” line items related to fully electronic trading.
Growth 82.0%
- 4Q2009 “Fully Electronic Rates” volumes & revenues up by double-digit percent versus 4Q2008; strong
recent growth in US Treasuries, EGB, & Canadian Sovereigns
- 4Q2009 “Fully Electronic Credit & FX” volumes & revenues more than doubled versus 4Q2008; strong
recent growth in CDS, FX Options, NDFs, & Spot FX
- Over time, higher fully electronic revenues should = improved margins
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BGC Partners Compensation Ratio
- Compensation ratio was 61.5% in 4Q2009 vs. 63.2% in 4Q2008
- Historically the compensation ratio increases during periods of rapid headcount growth, as new brokers have
typically take several quarters to achieve expected productivity levels
Note: Based on Distributable Earnings.
$560.0 $644.9 $719.6 $713.3 65.5% 57.7% 58.2% 60.9% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 2006 2007 2008 2009 ($ millions) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Compensation and Employee Benefits Compensation and Employee Benefits as % of Total Revenue
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Operating Leverage / Fixed Expense Base
(11%) 6% 11% 10% 29% 31% 36% 46% (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% FY2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 Pre-tax distributable earnings as % of Total Revenue Non-comp Expenses as a % of Total Revenue
- Non-comp expenses were 30.8% of distributable earnings revenues in 4Q2009 versus 32.9% in 4Q2008
- Pre-tax distributable earnings margin was 7.7% in 4Q2009 vs. 3.9% in 4Q2008
- Post-tax distributable earnings margin was 5.0% in 4Q2009 vs. 2.8% in 4Q2008
Note: FY 2006 based on GAAP pre-tax margin.
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BGC: Scalable Business Poised for Margin Expansion
- Non-comp expenses have decreased from 100.3 million in Q1 2008 to 92.5 million in Q4 2009 even as
front office headcount has increased
- As new brokers/salespeople improve productivity, BGC expects positive impact on compensation ratio
& margins
Number of Front Office Employees Percentage Front Office Employees
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q4 2009 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% Front Office Employees Front Office/Total Employees
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Distributable Earnings Growth
Pre-tax Distributable Earnings Growth Pre-tax Distributable Earnings Growth Post-tax Distributable Earnings Growth Post-tax Distributable Earnings Growth
$11.3 $23.0 $38.0 $43.0 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 ($ millions) 4Q08 4Q09 1Q10 Low 1Q10 High
103.1%
$8.0 $14.8 $27.0 $31.0 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 ($ millions)
4Q08 4Q09 1Q10 Low 1Q10 High
84.8%
- Fourth Quarter Pre-tax & Post-tax distributable earnings per fully diluted share were up 83%
and 75% y-o-y respectively
Estimates Estimates
Up 26% - 43% y-o-y
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Financial Markets Stabilize…
Note: The US Financial Conditions Index is calculated by Bloomberg LP. (BFCIUS Index, 01/01/2007-2/19/2010)
Normal Financial Conditions
- Sept. 2008
Lehman Collapse TARP Passed Banks Report Record FICC Profits
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94 83 96 82 89 101 99 103 98 100 98 75 110 102 104 102 101 104 81 118 118 89 81 126 50 75 100 125 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Revenue 2008 Revenue 100 85 96 95 103 98 82 111 110 101 88 $118 101 50 75 100 125 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Revenue 2010 Revenue
…Revenue Growth Resumes ($MM)
Note: 2010 revenue numbers are preliminary.
Jan 2010 up ≈ 18% y-o-y; 1st 3 weeks of Feb 2010 up ≈ 26% y-o-y