2020-2021 School Year Enrollment and Financial Forecast SCHOOL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jul 14, 2023 204 likes •347 views

2020-2021 School Year Enrollment and Financial Forecast SCHOOL BOARD WORK SESSION APRIL 29, 2020 Budget Information: www.spokaneschools.org/page/2190 Overview Update on state budget outlook 2019-2020 forecast Potential impacts to

SLIDE 1

2020-2021 School Year Enrollment and Financial Forecast

SCHOOL BOARD WORK SESSION APRIL 29, 2020

Budget Information: www.spokaneschools.org/page/2190

SLIDE 2

Update on state budget outlook
2019-2020 forecast
Potential impacts to forecast
2020-2021 budget
Enrollment projection
Revised budget assumptions
Future budget considerations
History from previous periods of budget reductions
Consider Resolution 2020-05 declaring a financial emergency and

directing the implementation of a modified educational program

Overview

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

SLIDE 3

Updates on State Budget Outlook

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Anticipate significant reduction to state sales tax revenue
Next scheduled revenue update in June
State agencies directed to implement budget reductions
Rumors of a June special session
State estimated loss due to COVID-19 response
$5- 8 billion
Loss exceeds rainy day fund of approximately $3 billion
Anticipate fiscal recovery will take several years
Anticipated impact to SPS 2020-2021 budget
Basic education is constitutionally protected putting non-basic ed at risk of significant reductions
Early indications are that federal funds will be to backfill state reductions

SLIDE 4

Updated Four-year Bu Budget For

recast

Description 2019-2020 2019-2020 Updated Forecast Jan 2020 Forecast March 2020 Change (In Millions) Revenue $ 457.4 $ 443.7 $ (13.7) Expenditures 453.4 441.5 11.9 Net Operations (Deficit) $ 4.0 $ 2.2 $ (1.8)

Budget Development Estimates April 2020

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

March 2020 Forecast Assumptions:

Revenues:
Decrease in revenue for childcare and meals
Decrease in grant expenditures creates revenue

carry forward

Decrease in other revenues
Property Taxes
Facility Rentals
Property tax delinquencies
Expenditures:
Decrease in salaries for unfilled positions
Decrease in substitute, overtime and extra

hours

Decrease in transportation
Decrease in utilities

SLIDE 5

Updated Four-year Bu Budget For

recast

Description 2019-2020 2019-2020 Forecast Jan 2020 Forecast March 2020 (In Millions) Beginning Fund Balance, September 1 $ 36.5 $ 36.5 Net Operations 4.0 2.2 Ending Fund Balance, August 31 40.5 38.7 Less: Restricted balances (14.3) (14.3) Unrestricted Fund Balance (CAU) $ 26.2 $ 24.4 CAU Fund Balance as a percentage of 2018-2019 actual expenditures 5.73% 5.34%

Fund Balance Estimates February 2020

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

SLIDE 6

Additional Considerations for the 2019-2020 Forecast

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Spending patterns are not following any historical trends so fluctuations may occur
First full month of activity under closure with COVID-19 response impacts will be April
OSPI is relooking at the current year LEA allocations
Potential non-standard expenditures:
Software to support remote learning and device tracking
Implement social distancing at school buildings
Remote learning student supports
Enhancements to summer school programs
Other?

SLIDE 7

Updated Four-year Bu Budget For

recast

Student FTE Budget 2019-2020 29,500.00 Projection 2019-2020 29,409.46 Unfavorable variance (90.54) Initial 2020-2021 budget assumption 29,525.00 Increase over 2019-2020 projection 115.54

Enrollment

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

2020-2021 Budget Development estimates include:

Enrollment forecast is stable
Enrollment based on move up of

existing students

OSPI projection is higher than SPS

projection by about 20 FTE

No provision for a reduction in

enrollment related to COVID-19

SLIDE 8

Revised 2020-2021 Budget Assumptions

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Levy and LEA based on current assessed valuation and authorization
2020 Levy = $35M
2021 Levy = $38M
2022-23-24 Levy assumes ballot and passage of $2.50 (~$65M plus per year)
State revenue reductions (non-basic education) to be determined
School staffing at 2019-2020 level
Current year elementary schedule and specialist model
Carryforward of 2019 – 2020 class size and staffing ratios
Suspended workload provisions
SEBB contingency
Non-salary expenditure (MSOC) freeze
Targeted reductions of $2 million
Preservation of fund balance

SLIDE 9

Updated Four-year Bu Budget For

recast

(In Millions) 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 Current EP & O Authorized Levy (Feb 2018) $ 36.6 $ 18.0 $ - $ - Estimate of EP & O Replacement Levy (Feb 2021)

34.7

68.7 73.9 LEA Estimate 13.3 11.3 9.4 7.6 Apportionment* 276.3 279.0 281.8 284.6 Other Revenue 138.7 141.6 144.4 147.3 Total Revenue 464.9 484.6 504.3 513.4 Maintenance Level Expenditures 474.8 487.3 498.6 508.2 Targeted Budget Reductions (2.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) Program Restoration

8.7 9.0 Opening of New Middle Schools

6.0 Total Expenditures 472.8 492.6 508.3 520.2 Net Operations $ (7.9) $ (8.0) $ (4.0) $ (6.8) Beginning CAU 24.4 16.5 8.5 4.5 Ending CAU 16.5 8.5 4.5 (2.3) Adjusted Fund Balance % (CAU) 3.61% 1.86% 0.98% (0.50)%

*Assumes no reductions to state revenue, no additional federal revenue, 2022-2024 levy at $2.50 per $1,000

Budget Planning – Use of Fund Balance (CAU)

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Updated to remove 2020-2021 program restorations only

SLIDE 10

2020-2021 Budget Considerations

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Revise state revenue estimates – non basic-ed funding may be reduced
LEA $13.3M
Carryover of state funds in excess of statutory carryover allowed
National board certification $3.5M
State special purpose grants
Implicit Price Deflator (IPD) – approx. $6M
State professional learning days – approx. $3M
Implement staffing budget based on spring staffing
Identify areas for potential reduction

SLIDE 11

Financial Emergency Declaration History

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Resolution 2010-10
Resolution 2011-07
Resolution 2019-12
Proposed Resolution 2020-05
Declaration of financial emergency
Reduction in force due to attrition (hiring freeze)
Targeted reduction of current staffing levels
Suspension of workload provisions
Reduction of current educational program and services

SLIDE 12

Student enrollment decline 2002-2008 of 2,433 FTE

Historical Budget Adjustments

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Fiscal Year

Budget Adjustment

2002-2003 $ (6.0) 2003-2004 (9.1) 2004-2005 (5.7) 2005-2006 (2.9) 2006-2007 (6.8) 2007-2008 (10.8) Six year total $ (41.3) Cumulative Budget Adjustment

Amount

Central administration reduced $ (3.6) Reduce teachers to match lower enrollment (10.7) Reduce support positions to match lower enrollment (7.0) Other district wide reductions (7.7) Managed use of Fund Balance (12.3) Total reductions $ (41.3)

SLIDE 13

Budget Development – Next Steps

SPS Budget Planning 2020-2021

Revise state revenue estimates
Revise expenditure budget to reflect spring staffing
Identify potential areas of reduction
Continue budget preparation – refine and update estimates as needed
Formalize budget engagement and communication strategies - May