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2017 FINANCIAL RESULTS March 6, 2018 Moscow 1 Disclaimer The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2017 FINANCIAL RESULTS March 6, 2018 Moscow 1 Disclaimer The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2017 FINANCIAL RESULTS March 6, 2018 Moscow 1 Disclaimer The information contained herein has been prepared using information available to PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (Norilsk Nickel or NN) at the time of preparation of the
Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been prepared using information available to PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (“Norilsk Nickel” or “NN”) at the time of preparation of the presentation. External or other factors may have impacted on the business of Norilsk Nickel and the content of this presentation, since its
- preparation. In addition all relevant information about Norilsk Nickel may not be included in this
- presentation. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy,
completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information herein has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. Forward looking statements, by the nature, involve risk and uncertainty and Norilsk Nickel cautions that actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such
- statements. Reference should be made to the most recent Annual Report for a description of major risk
- factors. There may be other factors, both known and unknown to Norilsk Nickel, which may have an
impact on its performance. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Norilsk Nickel, which does not undertake an obligation to release any revision to these statements. Certain market share information and other statements in this presentation regarding the industry in which Norilsk Nickel operates and the position of Norilsk Nickel relative to its competitors are based upon information made publicly available by other metals and mining companies or obtained from trade and business organizations and associations. Such information and statements have not been verified by any independent sources, and measures of the financial or operating performance of Norilsk Nickel’s competitors used in evaluating comparative positions may have been calculated in a different manner to the corresponding measures employed by Norilsk Nickel. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitation to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in Norilsk Nickel, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
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2017 Highlights
- Consolidated revenue increased 11% y-o-y to USD9.1 billion on the back of higher realized
metal prices (metal basket was up 21% y-o-y)
- EBITDA was up 2% y-o-y to a robust USD4 billion, with EBITDA margin maintained at an
industry-leading 44%
- CAPEX increased 17% y-o-y to USD2 billion as Bystrinsky project (Chita) was in its final
construction stage and the Bystrinsky concentrator was launched into hot commissioning at the end
- f 2017, while the upgrade of nickel refining facilities in Kola entered into active construction
- Net working capital increased to USD2.15 billion driven by optimization of capital structure
aiming at interest cost reduction, and some one-offs, including payment to Rostec for the purchased concentrate and build up of palladium stockpile to cover rising demand from key customers in 2018
- Reported Net debt/EBITDA ratio increased from 1.2x to 2.1х as of December 31, 2017
driven by payment of final 2016 and interim 2017 dividends and one-off increase in working capital
- Net debt/EBITDA ratio for the purposes of calculating final dividend for 2017 amounted
to 1.88x, which translates into 54% EBITDA payout ratio
- Major refinancing activities were completed in 2017, with new funding raised at record
low interest rates, enabling a reduction of interest cost by over USD150 million
- Interim 1H 2017 dividends in amount of USD607 million (or USD 3.8 per ADR) were approved
by the extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of shareholders in September 2017
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56 74 43 51 8 14 13 7 64 88 56 58 50 100 25 50 75 100 125 2014 2015 2016 2017
Health & Safety: Improving Safety Records
LTIFR Remains Below the Global Mining Industry Average
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Assessment of Occupational Safety Culture Score Significantly Improved Since 2014 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 March 2014 December 2015 November 2016 December 2017
Bradley curve indicator, DuPont Assessment
- LTIFR increased from 0.35 to 0.43 in 2017, while the
number of fatal injuries dropped 46% y-o-y
- Company is committed to create a strong safety culture
at all levels of the organization
- The management considers the health and safety of
employees as the key strategic priority and reiterates its commitment to reduce fatalities to zero
- Improvements in safety culture are driven by the
implementation of risk mitigation standards, a safety communication campaign and dedicated risk mitigation programmes
- 38 internal audits of Occupational Safety and Health
management system were conducted in 2017
- 152 employees were fired for violation of health and
safety regulations (vs. 148 in 2016), 132 employees used the right to refuse work assignment as it threatened their life and health (vs. 162 in 2016) 0.48 0.62 0.35 0.43
Lost time injury LTIFR (1*10-6) Fatal XX – total employees ХХ
Gradual Improvement of Norilsk Nickel ESG Assessment
46 49 58 2015 2016 2017 Sustainalytics ESG score increased from 46 to 58 points (out of 100)
Assigned Norilsk «С-» rating in December 2017 (2)
Note: 1. Average for the metals and mining industry according to Sustainalytics Research, 2. «С-» - average grade for the sector, 60% of 114 rated companies in the industry were rated «С-» or lower, 3. 1 - is Low risk, 10 - is High risk
Average (1)
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#61 MSCI ESG rating raised from «CCC» to «B»
Global ranking
CCC CCC B 2016 2017 2018 #56 #35
Government score (3) – 4, Environmental score (3) – 4, Social score (3) – 2
ХХ
Markets Update
Metals Markets Outlook
Source: Company data Note: 1. Excluding ETFs, investment demand and industry stocks movement. Numbers are rounded separately
Metal Stocks, days of consumption Market Balance Forecast Medium-term Fundamentals Long-term Fundamentals
Non-exchange Exchange
Ni Pd Pt Cu
ETF Other non-elastic Other elastic ETF Other 112 124 Exchange Non-exchange Deficit (1) Balanced(1) Deficit Balanced
Jan-16 Dec-17 84 47 112 124 Jan-16 Dec-17 220 (50) (140) 2016 2017 2018E kt 8 9 Jan-16 Dec-17 kt moz moz kt (10) (105) (15) 2016 2017 2018E kt 0.3 0.2 2016 2017 2018E moz ( 1.2) ( 0.8) ( 1.2) 2016 2017 2018E moz 89 70 Jan-16 Dec-17 7
- 110
- 2
+0.3
+170
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Barclays Capital
Macro Environment Supportive for Commodities
Commodities Assets Under Management: Strong Inflows Continued in 2017
5
Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index vs. Bloomberg Commodity Index: Negative Correlation 50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Precious metals Base Metals Energy
USD bn
Rising inflation and weakening USD are supportive for commodity prices
- 1.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 USA CPI (RHS) Bloomberg Commodity Index (LHS) USTWBROA (LHS)
% bp 8
Source: Company data
Nickel Stocks Are Falling
Total Exchange Inventories Continue to Fall
kt kUSD/t
5
5 10 15 20 25 30 100 200 300 400 500 600 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Nickel Inventory SHFE Nickel Inventory LME Nickel Price 2017: - 55Kt 2018YTD: -21Kt 4 8 12 16 20 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
mt
Chinese Ni Ore Inventories Drawing Down on Stronger Demand from NPI
9
1
Source: Company data
Nickel Market Short-Term Outlook
Ni Supply: Increase Driven by NPI Production Growth in Indonesia and China Ni Demand: Strong Growth in Stainless Steel in Indonesia and the Battery Sector in 2018 Nickel Market: Deficit Expected to Reduce in 2018 Due to Production Growth in Indonesia and the Philippines
kt (10) (105) (15) (135) 40 (135) 225 2016 Demand Supply 2017E Demand Supply 2018E
Deficit Deficit Deficit
2,010 2,145 2,280 96 (7) 34 12 2016 2017 China Indonesia STS Other Asia STS Batteries Other 2018E
+7%
kt 2,000 2,040 2,265 76 112 24 7 6 2016 2017 Indonesia NPI China NPI Fe-Ni Refined Ni Other 2018E
+2% +11%
kt 10
+6%
Source: Company data, BGRIMM Note: 1. Other include Ni Powder, Ni-Oxide, NiSO4
Mixed 2017 in China: Stainless Steel Demand Was Robust, but Nickel Imports Reduced
mln t +8%
7.2 7.6 8.0 8.9 10.9 11.8 12.3 12.0 4.0 4.5 4.6 5.3 22.1 23.9 24.9 26.2 2015 2016 2017 2018E 200S 300S 400S Nickel Demand in China’s Stainless: Volume Growth and Shift to Higher Nickel Grades (300 and 200 series) Imports of Nickel to China Declined in 2017 due to Destocking
+2% +4% kt, Ni units
11
11
130 293 362 235 69 124 99 123 21 84 119 100 200 300 400 500 600 2014 2015 2016 2017 Refined Ni Fe-Ni NPI Other (1)
- 11%
Approximately 50% of Chinese stainless steel production is integrated into NPI
+8% +4% +5%
+2% +15% +4%
- 2%
+5% +11%
+25%
- 11%
Source: Company data, Chinese customs trade statistics
Nickel Supply from the Philippines and Indonesia
mt of ore
Nickel Ore Supply to China is Rising on Rising Ore Exports from Indonesia Ni Ore Export from Indonesia Resumed: 2018YTD Quotas for 34 Mln Exports Have Been Granted
508 489 386 366 388 500 29 87 169 245 508 489 415 453 557 745 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E China Indonesia
Global NPI Production: Supply from China & Indonesia Expected to Grow Strongly in 2018
kt, Ni Units
12
12
4 34
- re, mln (wmt)
Actual exports in 2017 2018 YTD quotas
40 342
Ni unites, contained kt 41 11 16 30 36 34 31 29 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Indonesia Philippines Others 71 47 34 31 34 46
+34%
>50% NPI integrated into SS mills +10%
+10%
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Companies official reports, Company Data
Limited Growth Potential for Nickel Supply from Sulphide Ores
Underinvestments Impacting Ni Production from Sulphide Ores Nickel Production Increase is Driven Mostly by Low-grade Ni Products from Laterite Ore while Production from Sulphide Ore is Down
13 <2 USD bn
<2
kt of Ni units
250 500 750 1000 2,500 5,000 7,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Sulphides Capex (LHS) Sulphides production (RHS)
>3x
- 7%
kt of Ni
13
2012-2018E 1,995 2,000 2,040 2,265 2015 Sulphide Laterite Ni chemicals 2016 Sulphide Laterite Ni chemicals 2017 Sulphide Laterite Ni chemicals 2018E
+11% +2% 0%
Ni units, mt Ni units, mt
Growing Volumes of Low Grade Ni Feed Unlocks Class 1 Ni for Other Applications
Source: Company data Note: 1. As of March 2, 2018
2018 Production/Consumption Flow = 2.2 Mt Source of Ore
Substitution potential
Suphide Ore HPAL/Laterite Laterite Ore 0.7 0.3 1.2 NiSO4 (Ni 22%) Other NPI (Ni 8-12%) Fe-Ni (Ni 20-35%) Cathode/Briqs/ Special Forms (Ni 99.9%) Batteries Alloys/ Special Steel/ Plating Other industries Stainless Steel
Ni Products Ni Feed
0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.1
Substitution potential Ni Consumption
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14
Class 2 Ni Class 1 Ni
268 66 Briqc Other forms Exchange stocks (1)
PGM Market Balance: Pd in Deficit, Pt in Surplus
koz
Global Platinum Market: Structural Deficit Has Evaporated on Rising Supply
Surplus/(Deficit), koz (1)
Source: Company data Note: 1. Excluding ETFs, investment demand and industry stocks movement. Numbers are rounded separately
900 900 500 500 (900) 300 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Global Palladium Market: Apparent Deficit Expanding in 2018
(300) (500) (300) (500) (700) (1,200) (800) (1,200) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E koz Surplus/(Deficit), koz (1)
Gross Palladium Demand in 2018E: Autocatalysts – Main Driver of Consumption Growth
koz
Global Palladium Mine Output: Limited Cuts in 2018 with Expected Marginal Growth in the Mid-Term
koz
15
+3% +4%
6,660 6,880 6,820 7,080 2016 2017 Russia Zimbabwe Canada USA ROW 2018E 2020E
- 1%
15
+13% +5% +5%
9,710 10,200 10,72012,090 2016 2017 Autocat Electronics Chemical Retail Inv. ETF Other 2018E 2020E
Key Auto Trends Impacting Metals Demand
Demand Implications PGM Pd Pt Ni
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Sustainable global automotive production growth Diesel substitution by gasoline vehicles Growth of hybrids market share Growth of SUVs market share and engine downsizing termination Strengthening in emissions legislation Electric vehicles/batteries
NOx
Premium of Palladium to Platinum is Sustainable in the Mid-Term
Palladium Discount to Platinum Has Eliminated on Stronger Fundamentals… … as Platinum Has Been Loosing its Market Share in Autocatalysts to Palladium
Source: Company data
USD/oz moz Growth for the period ХХ%
2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Pd automotive demand Pt automotive and jewellery demand +45% +16% +16% +6%
2010-2016 2017-2020E
Pd: Diesel substitution, hybridization, China 6 introduction Pt: Substantial time lag >2Y for change in technology. Low jewellery demand in China 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Pt Pd
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Stricter Emission Regulations Positive for Pd Consumption Globally
Source: Company data, ICCT
New Regulations, Especially in China, Push Automakers to Increase PGM Loadings… … which Should Boost Pd Consumption in Auto Industry by More than 2.5 MOz by 2025E 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1990 1997 2004 2011 2018 2025 US EU-gasoline EU-diesel China-gasoline China-diesel
moz NMHC/NMOG+Nox Limits (g/km) Comparison of NMOG/NMHC+NOx emission requirements in China, the European Union and the USA during 1990-2025E 18
PGM consumption in automotive industry
8.2 11.2 2016 2025E 3.4 3.4 2016 2025E
+36% +0%
Palladium Platinum
xx% Growth for the period
52 50 44 40 48 46 39 37-40 10 20 30 40 50 60 2015 2016 2017 2018E Western Europe Germany
Current Changes in Autos’ Mix to Continue in Long-term
Source: Company data, LMC Automotive, JATO, ACEA Note: LV – light vehicles, BEV – battery electric vehicles, PHEV – plug-in hybrids. Numbers are rounded separately.
Electric Vehicles Grow Fast, but Their Market Share Remains Small
mln units
Diesel Penetration Ratio: Share of Diesel in New Passenger Cars in Europe is Decreasing Sharply
share in global LV production % 19
3% 3% 4% 5% 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.5 0.4 0.7 1 1.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015 2016 2017 2018E Hybrids BEV
Pd ETF Withdrawals Was Driven by Backwardation as Investors are Shifting to Other Investment Vehicles
Palladium ETFs Holding Change: Outflows Continued in 2018
1,100 (500) 400 900 (700) (600) (400) (100) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD koz
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, as of February 2018
Pd Market: Consistent Backwardation Since April 2017
- 8.0
- 6.0
- 4.0
- 2.0
0.0 2.0 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Pd/USD FX forward swap
NYMEX Speculative Long Positions Grew Significantly
koz USD/oz
- 2,000
- 1,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Speculative Long Speculative Short Speculative Net
20
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Li-ion EV Battery Trends and their Impact on Nickel Demand
Technological Shift to More Ni-intensive NCM Driven by Higher Energy Density Requirements and Substitution Away from Cobalt
NCM 1:1:1
2015
NCM 6:2:2 NCM 8:1:1
<2020 >2020 Ni weight content in cathode material
Dominating NCM Chemistry
0.9 mln 3.5 mln 10.0 mln
2016 2020E 2025E
BEV+PHEV
CAGR: 15-39% (1) Max - 17 mln Min - 3 mln Global Consumption of Ni in EV Li-ion Batteries could Exceed 500kt if Consensus Materializes 35 495
2016 2020E 2025E Actual demand (as of 2016) Incremental demand Ni, kt
185 530 Wide Range of Forecasts due to Major Uncertainties Regarding the Evolution of Battery Technologies
21
20% 36% 48%
Source: Company data, market consensus Note: 1. CAGR for the period 2016-2025E. Ni consumption in batteries shown at the precursor material basis
Autos Driven Metals Demand Outlook in 2016-2025E
Source: Company data Note: 1. Assuming additional 21 mln units of light vehicle sales, 2. Ni consumption in batteries shown at the precursor material basis
Pd
moz Pd in catalytic converters Ni in batteries Ni in stainless steel, alloys and parts Cu in electric engines and generators Cu in wires Cu in charging stations
Consumption
1.1 2.8 1.3 0.4
ICE only Hybrids PHEV Total
kt 320 495 100 75
BEV PHEV Hybrids Total
390 1,593 726 464 13
Charging stations Hybrids inc PHEV BEV Diesel Gasoline Total
kt
Metal Ni Cu
22
Norilsk Nickel’s Metal Basket Content by Light Vehicle Type
Source: Company estimates, LMC Automotive, Bloomberg; Note: 1. CAGR for 2015-2025E, 2. Expected market share in 2025 based on production; 3. Excluding additional infrastructure demand of 1-8 kg per charger; 4. Metal values calculated at spot prices as of March 2, 2018
CAGR1 Market Share2
Ni Cu PGM
+1%
Gasoline
68% +1%
Diesel
17%
2-4 kg 2-4 kg
+18%
Hybrid
- incl. PHEV
9% +25%
BEV
3%
5–15 kg 30–110 kg
+41%
FCEV
1%
2–3 kg 20-25 kg 20-25 kg 75-803 kg 45-50 kg 70-75 kg 3-6 g 2-5 g 2-6 g
- 25-35 g
Pt:Pd ratio 1:4 8:1 1:4 +Batteries +Electric Motor, Generator Winding Fuel Cell Catalysts Stainless Steel & Parts Wires & Parts
Metal value per vehicle, USD (4)
$260-420 $270-410 $520-750 Up to $1,600 Up to $1,600
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Copper Market: Balanced Market, Inventories Run Low
Copper Price Strong, Exchange Stocks Have Been Trending Higher China Remains the Main Driver of Global Copper Consumption Growth in 2017-2018E
mt USD/t
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, as of February 2018
mt +2.7% 24
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 LME Copper Inventory COMEX SHFE LME Copper Cash 22.5 23.0 23.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 2016 China Others 2017 China Others 2018E
+2.1
+2% +2%
Copper Supply / Demand Balance: Marginal Deficits in 2017-2018E 590 150 120 30 220 (50) (140) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
kt
24
Copper: Balanced Market, Supply Disruptions in Line with Historical Averages
Copper Supply Disruptions: Expected at 5% in 2018E in Line with Historical Average… …Collective Bargaining Agreements Up for Review in 2018: 30% of Global Mined Supply
Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, BofA Merrill Lynch Research, as of February 2018
mt 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.9
8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Copper mine disruptions (ex.cost related closures) % of original production target
25
Country Number of contracts under review Cu Production Chile 17 5.2Mt Peru 5 1.5Mt
25
2017 Financial Results
Sales Breakdown by Metals: Palladium The Largest Contributor to Revenue
27
204 206 25 42 9 2016 2017 271 215 Nickel (1) kt Russian feed Metal stock (Russian feed)
- 21%
PGM Sales: Down on Reduction of 3rd Parties Feed and Sales of Metals from Stock
34% 27% 24% 27% 25% 28% 9% 7% 3% 5% 5% 6% 2016 2017 Other Semi-products Platinum Palladium Copper Nickel 7,646 8,415
+10%
Realized Metals Prices: Up on Strong Commodity Markets Base Metals Sales: Down on Reduction of 3rd Parties Feed and Sales of Metals from Stock
355 365 13 6 3 2016 2017 374 368 Copper (1) International 3rd party feed kt
- 2%
2,629 2,353 129 21 52 2016 2017 2,779 2,405 Palladium (2) koz Russian feed Metal stock (Russian feed)
- 13%
629 639 32 8 18 2016 2017 669 657 Platinum International 3rd party feed International 3rd party feed koz
- 2%
Nickel Copper 2016 2017 9,701 10,704 4,911 6,202
+10% +26%
614 977 858 949 Palladium Platinum 2016 2017
+40%
- 3%
Metal Sales Volumes and Realized Prices
Note: 1. Excluding sales of semi-products, contained 17 kt of Ni, 28 kt of Cu in 2017, 13 kt of Ni, 15 kt of Cu in 2016,
- 2. Excluding metals purchased from 3rd parties
USD mln USD/t USD/oz 27
Platinum Revenue: Down 5% on Lower Sales
28
267 5 2,625 2,304 (593) 2016 Realized price Sales volume Resale 2017
- 12%
Copper Revenue: Up 24% on Higher Prices
483 1,839 2,281 (41) 2016 Realized price Sales volume 2017
+24%
681 101 1,888 2,346 (324) 2016 Realized price Sales volume Resale 2017 USD mln
+24%
(20) 654 623 (11) 2016 Realized price Sales volume 2017 USD mln
- 5%
Palladium Revenue: Up 24% on Higher Prices Nickel Revenue: Down 12% on Lower Sales
Metals Revenue: Driven Up by Strong Commodity Markets
28 USD mln USD mln
Geographical Breakdown of Sales Increase of metal sales 10% y-o-y to USD8.4 bn due to:
- Increase of realized metal prices
(positive impact of USD1.6 bn)
- Reduction of metal sales volume due to
the sale of metals from stocks (negative impact of USD1.1 bn);
- Re-sale of metals, primarily, palladium
(positive impact of USD241 mln)
1,620 (1,092) 241 7,646 8,415 2016 Realised price Sales volume Re-sale
- f metals
2017 Macro Environment Company performance USD mln
Metal Revenue Up on Higher Prices
57% 56% 23% 23% 10% 14% 10% 7% 2016 2017 Russian Federation and CIS North and South America Asia Europe 8,415 7,646 USD mln
Consolidated Metal Revenue
Geographical breakdown of metal sales:
- Europe remains the single largest
market accounting for 56% of metal sales
- Sales to America increased to 14%,
mainly due to the increased demand for Palladium from the US auto industry
- Reduction of Russia and CIS sales from
10% to 7% of total due to comparative effect of 2016 attractive domestic PGM pricing
29 29
EBITDA and EBITDA margin
- Higher realized metal prices had a positive impact on EBITDA of USD1.6 bn
- Strengthening of RUB against USD contributed negatively to EBITDA by (USD0.4 bn)
- Built up of metal stock in 2017 against release of metal from stocks in 2016 had a negative
impact on EBITDA of (USD0.8 bn)
2017 EBITDA Bridge
2017 EBITDA was up by 2% y-o-y to USD4.0 bn, EBITDA margin down by 3 p.p. to 44%:
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
(422) (141) (140) (778)
3,899 3,995 1,568
9
2016 Realized price FOREX Domestic inflation Social expenses Change in stock Other 2017 Macro factors: 1,005 Operating factors: (769) USD mln One-off factors: (140) 30 4,198 5,681 4,296 3,899 3,995 37% 48% 50% 47% 44% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EBITDA EBITDA margin USD mln
1,145 1,377 476 827 580 784 170 204 516 660 2016 2017 Other 3rd party services Materials and fuel Semi-products and metals Labour 2,887 3,852
+33%
1,307 1,377 292 297 650 784 188 204 578 660 2016 - adjusted by FX & metal purchases 2017 - adjusted by metal purchases Other 3rd party services Materials and fuel Semi-products Labour 3,015 3,322 5% 9% 21% 2% 14%
+10%
Operating Cash Costs Adjusted by FX & Refined Metal Purchase: Up +10% Operating Cash Costs Changes in 2017 Reported Operating Cash Costs: up by 33% 2017 Cash Costs Breakdown
Operating Cash Costs
USD mln 31 USD 140 mln – Copper concentrate USD (135) mln – Other external semi-products 2,887 3,852 3,624 (50) (39) (228) 312 58 115 83 140 346
2016 Forex Market price Domestic inflation MET change Copper Conc Metal purchase Head count reduction Other 2017 Palladium purchased 2017 adj.
USD mln Macro Factors: 568 Operating Factors: 397 36% 21% 20% 18% 5% USD mln Other Services Materials and fuel Labour Metals and semi-products
1
Note: 1. Mineral extraction tax (MET)
Net Working Capital in 2015 - 2017
Net Working Capital
115 75 430 424 775 (125) 1,030 455 2,149 31.12.2015 31.12.2016 FOREX Market prices, inflation Change in metal inventory Purchased copper concentrate Optimisation of capital structure Other 31.12.2017 Macro factors: 190 Operating factors: 1,504 USD mln 32
FCF in 2017 Reduced Due to One-off Increase in Working Capital
33 96 49 (288) (1,753) 272 2016 Capex Other Investing activities WC change Change in EBITDA Other non-cash item Income tax paid 2017 (173) 1,591 (140) USD mln
At the USD/RUB rate of 57.6, 1% change in exchange rate translates into: EBITDA change of USD37.4 mln, FCF change of USD66.0 mln. Currency Break Up of OPEX (1) Currency Break Up of CAPEX
Financial Results Sensitivity to USD/RUB Exchange Rate
Note: 1. Cash costs (change in stock excluded), Cost of non-metal sales, SG&A
34 77% 23% RUB Non- RUB 2016 79% 21% RUB Non- RUB 2017 73% 27% RUB Non- RUB 2016 68% 32% RUB Non- RUB 2017 47.9 43.1 37.4 33.2 30.8 84.5 76.1 66.0 58.5 54.3 USD mln Exchange rate as at 31.12.2017 Free cash flow EBITDA 50.0 45.0 57.6 65.0 USD/RUB 70.0
CAPEX(1) Breakdown by Projects CAPEX(1): commercial and stay-in-business
Cash CAPEX
Note: 1. CAPEX in Cash flow statement, net of VAT
583 748 1,131 1,254 2016 2017 Commercial Stay-in-business 1,714 2,002 USD mln 35 549 572 377 437 89 228 24 11 153 216 253 89 269 449 2016 2017 GRK Bystrinskoe (Chita) Talnakh Concentrator Skalisty mine Projects related to the shutdown of Nickel Plant Kola Other commercial Other stay-in- business 1,714 2,002 USD mln
Change in Debt Structure Proactive Debt Management Liquidity and Debt Repayment Schedule Historical Leverage
- Prepayment of Rouble denominated credit facilities in the amount
- f RUB 60 bn in order to decrease the Company funding costs
- Issuance of two Eurobonds totalling USD1.5 bn at record low
interest rates for the Company on international debt capital markets
- Issuance of NN corporate guarantee to reduce interest rate on the
Chita project finance loan from Sberbank
- Raise of USD2.5 bn 5-year syndicated facility at record low
Libor+1.5%
- Further amendment of pricing terms of outstanding credit lines of
USD2.45 bn
- Decrease of the average cost of debt by over USD150 million
- Investment grade ratings at BBB- with Stable outlook from S&P
Global and Fitch; upgraded Moody's rating to the investment level
- f Baa3 with Positive outlook in February 2018
Balance Sheet Management
0.8 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.0 0.9 3.1 Liquidity position 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+ Debt repayments Cash Available Credit Lines USD bn
Note: 1. Net debt/EBITDA adjusted for the purposes of dividends calculation: Normalized on interim dividends and deposits with maturity
- f more than 90 days
36 4.6 3.5 4.2 4.5 8.2 1.1 0.62 0.98 1.18 2.05
- 0.40
- 0.10
0.20 0.50 0.80 1.10 1.40 1.70 2.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA, (x) USD bn 1.88 Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA (1), (x) 7% 9% 93% 91% 2016 2017 Maturity 28% 15% 72% 85% 2016 2017 Currency 63% 62% 37% 38% 2016 2017 Type LT ST RUB Non- RUB Fix Float
Major Projects Update
Murmansk Norilsk Moscow
- St. Petersburg
Monchegorsk Nickel Zapolyarny
Environmental Program Overview: Reduction of S02 Emissions
Polar Division SO2 Emissions, kt 1,854 1,758 1,676 2015 2016 2017
- 10%
Main Environmental Initiatives: May 2016, agglomeration plant was shut down at Zapolyarny production site In 2016, Copper-nickel conc briquette plant launched
Source: Company data
155 120 109 2015 2016 2017
- 5%
Kola Division SO2 Emissions, kt
Main Environmental Initiatives: Emissions reduced in the residential area of Norilsk by 30-35% In 1H 2017, Talnakh Concentrator modernized and capacity expanded (Talnakh stage 2 project completed) In 2016, Nickel Plant was shut down
- 30%
38
- Comprehensive sulphur
capturing solution
- Construction of new
converters (replacing converting operations at Copper Smelter) CAPEX: up to USD 2.5 bn Emissions reduced in the residential area of Norilsk Talnakh Concentrator, Stage 2 Nickel Smelter Downstream reconfiguration completed 2023 target 2015 Total SO2 emissions in the Norilsk Industrial Area
$
Polar Division Phase II: 2017–2022 Phase I: 2013–2016
Nadezhda Smelter Total SO2 emissions in Nickel town
Kola MMC
2019 target 2015 Reduction of smelting operations at the Norwegian border Smelting shop in Nickel town Nickel Smelter shut down CAPEX: USD 60–70 mln
$
2017–2019
39
- Expansion / upgrade project at
the Sulphur production facilities Copper Smelter
1 2 3
Comprehensive Environmental Program
30-35 %
- 70%
Up to -50%
- CapEx 2018–2024: ~ USD 1.0 bn
- Progress by 2017:
Shaft sinking: 1.944 m
- Production capacity – 2.4 Mtpa
- Ore reserves – 65.9 Mt
- Project IRR (as of 01.2013) – 29%
- CapEx 2013–2017: USD 1.1 bn
- Commissioned mining capacity – 300 Ktpa in
2016-2017
- Total mining capacity 1.75 Mtpa in 2017
- Next launch – 400 Ktpa in 2018, 2.4 Mtpa by 2024
- Completion of ventilation shaft #10 in 2018
- Completion of main shaft in 2019
Project overview Project timeline Project update
Skalisty Mine: Project Development on Track
40 1.680 m Shaft №10 (93% complete) Skip-cage shaft (main shaft) (80% complete)
In progress
Downstream Reconfiguration Program
Kola MMC
Polar Division
NN Harjavalta Finland
Russia
Kola MMC and NN Harjavalta
Nickel Smelter shutdown Impact of reconfiguration on EBITDA
Note: 1. Rreconfiguration will contribute to maintaining stable base metals production levels to offset the reduction of secondary feedstock and decreasing production at Zapolyarny mine (-1.2 Mt in three years)
Upgrade of Nickel Refinery at Kola MMC
Reduction of SO2 emissions in the Norilsk residential area
30–35% Upgrade and expansion of Nadezhda Smelter Upgrade and expansion of Talnakh Concentrator
+26% 2018 1.9 2.4 2015
Increase in capacity, Mt
Completed
Result: Result: Result:
- 2018: circa USD 100 mln as a result
- f increased total recovery rates of base
metals and a shorter production cycle
- Positive EBITDA impact to be
enhanced through the Comprehensive Efficiency Improvement Programme and
- nce final production footprint is
achieved
- The increased recovery rates are
reflected in the production guidance1 for 2018–2020
- Implementation of a new chlorine
leaching technology
- Expansion of nickel refining
capacity from 165 Ktpa to 190 Ktpa
Completed Completed
41
7.5 10.2
Increase in capacity, Mt Ni-Po conc upgrade, Ni content (%)
5.8 2015 2018 9.5
Kola MMC Severonickel Plant, Monchegorsk Pechenganickel
Upgrade of Kola Nickel Refinery
Next steps Project status
- Construction works are underway
at all facilities
- 42 cells based on the new chlorine
leaching technology have been installed
- Construction progress: ~40%
completed
- CapEx 2017: USD 120 mln
- Completion of infrastructure
development
- Phased capacity commissioning
in 2018
- Reaching design capacity and
parameters in 2019
- CapEx 2018: USD 150 mln
Projected impact
- Increase in nickel recovery
from high-grade matte by
- ver 1.0%
- Optimisation of the work-in-
progress inventory levels
- CAPEX (full project)
circa USD 300–350 mln
120 145 190 45 45 2016 165 +15.2% 2020 Nickel refining capacity at Kola MMC, Kt Tankhouse 2 Tankhouse 1 42 Murmansk
- Hot commissioning started
(completion planned for 1H 2018)
- Ore reserves: 341 Mt, grades: Cu – circa 0.7%; Fe – circa 21%; Au – circa 0.9 g/t
- Site infrastructure: open pit, concentrator (grinding and flotation), camp, etc.
- External infrastructure:
Project overview
234 km of 220 kV power lines constructed 223 km railway to the site constructed (public–private partnership)
Project highlights
Annual production volumes Ore Mt 6-7 10 Cu (in concentrate) Kt 35-40 ~70-75 Au (in concentrate) Koz 180-200 ~250-260 Fe (magnetite concentrate) Kt 1 400-1 600 ~ 2 900 2018 2021+ ~1.7 CAPEX 0.4–0.5 EBITDA’20+
Key development milestones:
USD bn
- Sale of a 13.3% stake to a
consortium of Chinese investors (closed)
- Sale of a 36.6% stake to
CIS NRF Holdings Limited (closed)
- Ramp-up is on
schedule 0.3-0.4 Cash cost 43
Bystrinsky (Chita Copper) Project
Polar Division Reconfiguration program in Norilsk completed in 2017 Construction completed
Strategic Roadmap of Key Production Assets Development
Optimisation of the Smelting shop's
- perations to reduce SO2
emissions Upgrade and expansion
- f nickel refining capacity
Intensive development of Talnakh ore reserves Chita project
- Potential development of
the South Cluster (growth option)
- Final investment decision to be
considered in 1H 2018
Severonickel Smelting Shop
- Potential expansion of Talnakh
Concentrator, Stage 3 (+8 Mtpa)
- Feasibility study underway,
to be completed in 1H 2018
2018
Kola MMC Implementation of the comprehensive environmental programme
2023 By 2022-2024 Hot commissioning 2017–2022
Roadmap to advanced, highly efficient and environmentally friendly production processes
2019 By 2022 Completed 44
- Potential development of
the Maslovskoe, South flank of Norilsk- 1 and Chernogorskoe deposits (JV with Russian Platinum)
- Pre-feasibility study to be completed
by the end of 2019
Production Guidance for 2018 (1)
kt
Ni Pd
kt
Cu
Note: 1. Metals produced from own feedstock
- 2. Norilsk Nickel owns 50.1% of Bystrinsky (Chita Copper) Project. Production results shown on 100% basis and fully consolidated in Company’s
financial and operational results
45
197 210 210-215 2016 2017 2018E 344 398 400-420 35-40 (2) 2016 2017 2018E Russian own feed Chita 344 398 435-460 2,526 2,728 2,630-2,725 2016 2017 2018E
Pt
koz koz 610 650 600-650 2016 2017 2018E
Monchegorsk Moscow Norilsk Novy Urengoy Saratov 4
Upgraded IT Infrastructure Provides a Platform for Higher Operating Efficiency
46
SAP ERP roll-out
Pilot project completed Roll-out for Chita performed in 2017, for Polar Division planned for 2018
1
New data centre platform
Server infrastructure and data storage facilities fully upgraded to meet company demands Enterprise data network modernised
2
Underground radio and positioning system 369km of optical cable 1 052 Wi-Fi access points Real-time control of mine personnel and machinery
3
5 5
Norilsk
Talnakh
3 1 1 2
MES layer
Dispatching system pilot project in active phase in Norilsk 3D mine design and planning pilot project completed for 1 mine, now rolled out onto other mines Metall Accounting pilot project completed for Talnakh concentrator, now rolled out onto other plants and mines
5
High-speed fiber cable to Norilsk
956km of cable commissioned at 40 Gbit/s Extremely challenging tundra climate Enables the use of modern IT solutions Improved quality of life for residents
- f Norilsk
4
47
956 KM of high speed fiber-optic line
New Urengoy
Sidorovsk Igarka
Norilsk city
Vankor
р. Енисей
Snezhnogorsk Limbyayu Sumburgh
оз. Пясино
Construction of high-voltage lines Construction of underwater lines over Yenisie river Construction of a new line Construction on the basis of the existing fiber-
- ptic line
High Speed Fiber-Optic Line - Key Infrastructural Project for Norilsk Region Launched in 2017
2018 Outlook
- Neutral on nickel: in spite of anticipated solid demand growth rates in 2018, we expect nickel
market deficit to reduce owing to ramp-up of NPI production in Indonesia and recovery of ore export volumes from Indonesia and the Philippines
- Neutral on copper: market to remain fairly balanced, spot price persists above cost curve, while
upcoming labour contracts re-negotiations in Chile and Peru may create upside risks in the short-term
- Positive on palladium: market deficit to widen on the back of continuing demand growth from
automotive sector and lack of new primary supply. We see no immediate threat from electric vehicles in 2018
- Neutral on platinum: falling market share of diesel cars and negative overall sentiment towards
diesel combined with a stable primary supply will keep market in surplus
- Metal production guidance(1) :
Ni 210-215 kt Cu 400-420(2) kt
- 2018 Capex: USD2.0 billion(3) including USD0.2 billion towards completion of Chita project
- Working capital: USD1.0bn(3) by 2018YE as capital structure is optimized towards lower-interest
cost instruments and advances from customers being renewed
- Net debt/EBITDA: less than 1.5x by 2018YE(3)
- Annual dividend: final dividends for 2017 are expected to be announced in April-May 2018
Note 1. Metal production guidance from Russian feed, 2. Excluding Chita copper volumes, 3. Assuming exchange rate USD/RUB 62.0
Pd 2,630-2,725 koz Pt 600-650 koz
48