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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
INTERIM RESULTS
2010: RESULTS INTERIM INTERIM RESULTS 2010 Forward looking - - PDF document
1 PAGE 2010: RESULTS INTERIM INTERIM RESULTS 2010 Forward looking statement PAGE 2 A number of statements we make in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact, but will be forward-looking
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
INTERIM RESULTS
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Forward looking statement
A number of statements we make in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact, but will be “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory factors and technology change. Irish Life & Permanent undertakes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Forward-looking statements made in this presentation relate only to events as of the date on which they are made.
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Index
SECTION: PAGE: Business review Review of life business 05 Review of banking business 11 Strategic agenda & Summary 20 Financial Review Group earnings 23 Funding 28 Arrears 29 Loan impairments 32 Capital 34 Outlook 36 Additional information 38
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
LIFE PERFORMANCE NORMALISING BANK MANAGING KEY ISSUES RECOVERY UNDERWAY
Business Review
Life* profits recover Bank losses stabilise Overall results -€10m Operating profit 40% Business retention improving Good progress on funding Net interest income stable Provisioning 21%
STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES
EBS proposal
* Life & Fund Management
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life: Normalising the Performance
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life: Recovery in Profitability
H1 2010 New business In-force Operating profit €m 28 90 118 ▲% +22 +48 +40
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Retail
date
Corporate
Life: Retention Improving
Retail: Returning to long term lapse assumptions
* forecast
Lapses v LTA Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 2010 136% 125% 105%* 2009 192% 159% 139% 147%
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life: Sales Recovery
2009 2010 2011 2012
RETAIL DECLINE STABLE RECOVERY GROWTH CORPORATE DECLINE DECLINE STABLE RECOVERY ILIM GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH Bottom of cycle
but stabilising in 2010
confidence and improvement in markets
employment growth will drive sales
growth through cycle
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life: Sales outcome
recruitment
H1 2010 Retail Corporate ILIM & ILI Total €m 65 70 141 276 ▲% (4) (23) +107 +22
* APE basis
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
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PROFITABILITY: RETENTION:
Revert to long term assumptions by year end
SALES:
Life: Outlook
Recovery in line with expectations Further recovery
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Banking: Managing Key Areas
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: Funding Strategy
comprising retail deposits and long- term debt by 2012
large pool of quality collateralised assets to cover any risks to short- term funding
240% and stable funding ratio of 56% Retail Deposits Long Term Debt Stable funding Short Term Debt 2010 % 27 33 60 40 100 2011 % 31 34 65 35 100 2012 % 34 36 70 30 100
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank Deposit Funding Progress
changes end September Retail Deposit Growth
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: Term Funding Programme
total for 2010, of which €5.1bn raised YTD
done by year end
targeted to improve funding mix
funding to normalised term issuance
issuance of €2bn in 2011 and 2012
issuance of €2bn in 2013 Year 2010 (H2) 2011 2012 2013 Main Status Guaranteed Secured Secured Unsecured Amount €1.3bn – €2.8bn €2.0bn €2.0bn €2.0bn
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: Loan Arrears & Impairments
experiencing difficulties with mortgage repayments
rise, early arrears more slowly
and UK residential arrears
21% on H1 2009
peak in 2010
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
UK Mortgage Arrears Cases Irish Residential Mortgage Arrears Cases
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: Loan Book
constant currency basis
level of new lending
Total Loan Book €38.7bn (Dec 2009: €38.9bn) Loan Balances
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: Profitability - N.I. Margin
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: Profitability - Cost Reduction
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Bank: 3 Year Targets
NII Impairment charge Tier 1 capital L/D ratio Stable funding rate Return on equity (ROE) H1 2010 Actual 0.81% €150m 10.7% 240% 56% Negative 2013 Target >1% Normalised >10% <170% 70% >10%
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Banking
Insurance
Fund Management
Strategic Opportunities
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Summary
LIFE - STRONG PROFIT GROWTH BANKING - PATH TO RECOVERY STRATEGY - MAKING PROGRESS
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Financial Review
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Small operating loss due to:
higher funding costs and significant impairment provisions Life embedded value changed by:
compared with large property falls in H1 2009
reserving basis for financial
8.1% (2009: 7.5%) as a results
Group Earnings
Operating (loss) / profit
Operating (loss) Life embedded value:
(Loss) before tax
H1 09 €m
84 (132) (3) (51) (80) (89) (220)
H1 10 €m
118 (131) 3 (10) (11) (7) (4) (32)
Change %
40 1 80
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life new business volumes 7% lower,
Life (excl. ILIM) new business margin:
Improvement in In-force earnings
Life Earnings
New business Total expected return Experience variances Assumption changes In-force Operating profit Taxation Profit after tax
H1 09 €m
23 61 (21) 21 61 84 (9) 75
H1 10 €m
28 68 13 9 90 118 (12) 106
Change %
22 48 40 41
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Experience Variances Assumption Changes Persistency Risk Expenses / Other
Life Variances & Assumptions
Experience variances
Business
Assumption changes
each half year based on actual experience
persistency long term assumptions at year end H1 09 €m
21
H1 10 €m
9
H1 09 €m
(34) 6 7 (21)
H1 10 €m
(7) 19 1 13
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Net interest income Other income* Government guarantee Expenses Impairment provisions Operating (loss) Taxation (Loss) after tax
H1 09 €m
195 18 (11) 202 (145) 57 (189) (132) 15 (117)
H1 10 €m
192 21 (45) 168 (149) 19 (150) (131) 19 (112)
Net interest income broadly in-line with H1 2009 Net interest margin 81bps excluding cost
Government guarantee reflects higher cost of new guarantee
Underlying costs down yoy Lower loan impairment provisions due to improvement in consumer finance and UK portfolios
Bank Earnings
* incl. trading income & investment return
Change %
(2) (17) 1
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Net Interest Margin
(Sep 09 & Feb 10) and impact of mortgage switches
Cost of Funds Customer accounts Long-term ECB Short term Cost % 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.7 1.6 Book % 34 33 17 16 100 Asset Yields ROI mortgages UK mortgages Commercial mortgages Consumer finance Treasury Yield % 2.6 1.5 2.8 7.1 1.9 2.4 Book % 57 17 5 3 18 100
Net Interest Margin – Run-rate Margin Movement FY 2009 Retail deposit funding Wholesale funding Asset re-pricing Other Balance Sheet H1 2010 BPS 83 (12) (6) 14 4 83 (2) 81
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Funding
June 2010 - Total €47bn
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
Raised €5.1bn term debt to date
Retail deposits continue to grow strongly Reliance on ECB reducing, significant collateral available Very difficult funding conditions since April 2010 Extension of Government Gtee to Dec 2010 for some liabilities Guaranteed and Non Guaranteed
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Loans (CHL) portfolio
2008
June 2010 against peak in Q1 2009
2010
2.8% at June 2010
* Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders >3 months, includes repossessions & receivers of rent cases
CHL Mortgage Arrears Cases
Arrears - UK Mortgages
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
H1 2010
33% in H1 2010
arrears 9,167 at June 2010 out of total portfolio of c. 181,000 cases
66% at June 2010
June 2010 PTSB ROI Residential Mortgage Arrears Cases
Arrears - ROI Residential Mortgages
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Car Finance Arrears Cases
Arrears - Car Finance
significantly reduced provisions
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
ROI mortgages UK mortgages ROI commercial Consumer finance Specific €m 82 12 32
Collective €m 4 1
24 Total €m 86 13 32 19 150 H1 2010
Collective provisions: are determined on a portfolio basis generally using a statistical roll-rate model, and are used where individual loans are small and / or to recognise losses which has been incurred but not yet reported.
Impairment Charge
Total €m 98 17 30 44 189 H1 2009
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Impairment Model
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Basel II Tier 1 capital Total required capital Total RWAs Core Tier 1 ratio Dec 09 €m 1,858 1,313 16,411 % 11.3 Jun 10 €m 1,769 1,328 16,603 % 10.7
expected defaults
11.3%)
requirement of 8%
(PCAR) in progress with Financial Regulator
Capital - Bank
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Regulatory Capital Movement Jan 2010 Capital from existing business New business strain Net capital release Investment fluctuations / other Jun 2010 €m 685 104 (35) 69 4 758
Capital - Life
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
for Irish Life Assurance of €424m (Dec 09: €416m) covered 1.7 times (Dec 09: 1.6 times)
at year end
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Earnings Outlook
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010 Page 38. Group total (loss) after tax - EV basis 39. Group operating (loss) after tax - EV basis 40. Group operating EPS - EV basis 41. Group IFRS (loss) after tax 42. Group IFRS and EV basis results reconciliation 43. Bank non-interest income 44. Bank asset portfolio 45. Bank impaired loans 46. Bank non-performing loans 47. Bank regulatory capital 48. Life embedded value movement 49. Life asset quality 50. Life new business margin 51. Life operating costs 52. Life & investment sales 53. Life sales - Retail & Corporate 54. Other activities operating (loss) / profit
Additional Information
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Operating (loss) Investment fluctuations Economic assumptions Other changes Total (loss) Pre-tax €m (10) (11) (7) (4) (32) H1 10 Tax €m 7 (1) 6 12 H1 09 Post-tax €m (44) (69) (78)
Post-tax €m (3) (12) (1) (4) (20)
Group Total (Loss) After Tax - EV Basis
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life assurance Banking Associate Other Operating (loss) / profit Pre-tax €m 118 (131) 2 1 (10) H1 10 Tax €m (12) 19
H1 09 Post-tax €m 75 (117) 4 (6) (44) Post-tax €m 106 (112) 2 1 (3)
Group Operating (Loss) After Tax - EV Basis
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010 Note: “own shares” included for EPS calculation
Operating (loss) / profit Taxation (Loss) / profit after tax Average no. of shares EPS H1 09 €m (51) 7 (44) 276m (16)c H1 10 €m (10) 7 (3) 276m (1)c
Group Operating EPS - EV Basis
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Life assurance & investment Banking General Insurance Other Investment fluctuations Economic variance Other / Goodwill impairment Taxation (Loss) / profit after Tax H1 09 €m 65 (132) 4 (7) (70) (53) (61) (24) (7) (215) H1 10 €m 90 (131) 2 1 (38) 7 (5) 2 8 (26) 90 IFRS Life Earnings Movement H1 2010 €m New business effect (1) Interest on insurance VIF 32 Expected profit on Inv. contracts 37 Exp var. & assumption changes 15 Expected Investment Return 7
Group Total (Loss) After Tax - IFRS Basis
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Embedded Value basis Investment business
Own shares adjustment Other IFRS (Statutory) basis S’Holders Equity €m 2,453 (690) 145 70
1,953 Total (Loss) / Profit after Tax €m (20) (27) 2 (2) 11 10 (26) H1 2010
IFRS / EV Reconciliation
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010 Note: Bancassurance Embedded Value operating profit €6m [H1 09: €6m] included in life assurance
Fees & Comms (rec’d) Fees & Comms (payable) Trading income Investment return H1 09 €m 27 (3) 24 (6) 18 H1 10 €m 26 (4) 22 (4) 3 21
Bank Non-Interest Income
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Category Sovereign Bonds AAA AA A Bank FRNs / Corporate Bonds AA A BAA/BAA/B & lower RMBS AAA AA / A
Sovereign Bonds (42%), €4.1bn Bank FRNs (50%) and €0.6bn Prime RMBS (8%)
denominated and there is zero US exposure in balance
€bn 1.7 1.6 0.1 3.3 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.02
Asset Portfolio June 2010
% 50 47 3 80 15 5 97 3
Bank Asset Portfolio
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Residential mortgages
Commercial mortgages Consumer finance Balances €m 736 105 217 160 1,218 Total Loans % 2.7 1.3 9.1 10.5 3.2 June 2010 Balances €m 415 75 171 167 828 Total Loans % 1.5 1.0 7.2 9.5 2.1 December 2009
Impaired Loans
Impaired loans: are loans where there is objective evidence that an impairment loss had occurred, including cash-flow difficulties,
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Residential mortgages
Commercial mortgages Consumer finance Balances €m 1,858 265 378 195 2,696 Total Loans % 6.9 3.3 16.2 12.8 7.0 June 2010 Balances €m 1,165 297 216 124 1,802 Total Loans % 4.2 3.8 8.9 6.0 4.5 June 2009 Balances €m 1,342 258 307 206 2,113 Total Loans % 4.9 3.4 12.9 11.8 5.4 December 2009
Non-Performing Loans
Non-performing loans: are impaired loans and loans where repayments are over 90 days in arrears
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Basel II Capital Available capital Tier 1 Tier 2 Total capital Deductions* Total available capital (Tier 1) Required capital Excess own funds Total RWAs RAR (all Core Tier 1) Dec 09 €bn 3.9 1.2 5.1 (3.3) 1.8 1.3 0.5 16.4 % 11.3 Jun 10 €bn 3.9 1.2 5.1 (3.4) 1.7 1.3 0.4 16.6 % 10.7
Bank Capital - Basel II
* Life company investment and other regulatory adjustments
requirement of 8%
expected defaults
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Opening 1 Jan 2010 Operating profit Investment fluctuations Economic assumptions Capital & other movements Closing 30 Jun 2010 Net Worth €m 566 69 8 1 (5) 639 VIF €m 1,076 37 (20) (2)
Required Capital €m 634 645 Total €m 1,642 106 (12) (1) (5) 1,730
Life Embedded Value Movement
* All movements net of tax
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Rating AAA AA A €m 1,520 371 24 1,915 % 79 20 1 100 Non-linked Debt Securities
securities of appropriate duration
Insurance & investment assets Deposits Property Equity Debt securities / other Subordinated debt* €m 550 104 29 177 860 (221) 639 % 64 12 3 21 100 Shareholders’ Net Worth
plus seed capital for property funds
in 2007
* €200m net of mark-to-market adjustments
Life Asset Quality
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
New Business Contribution Life ILIM Margin - APE Life ILIM Margin – PVNBP* Life ILIM H1 09 €m 18 5
%
10.5 8.8 % 1.6 0.9 H1 10 €m 20 8
%
13.0 6.3 % 1.8 0.6 APE Sales H1 10 H1 09 €m €m Life 156 167 ILIM 120 60 PVNBP* Sales H1 10 H1 09 €m €m Life 1,095 1,090 ILIM 1,199 605
* Present value of new business premiums
Life New Business Margin
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Retail & Corporate ILIM Other IFRS adjustment H1 10 €m 77 6 6 89 (7) 82 H1 09 €m 80 5 4 89 4 93
Life Operating Costs
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Recurring Premium Single Premium H1 09 €m 257 219 605 79 1,160 116 1,160 H1 10 €m 267 244 1,199 208 1,918 192 1,918 Retail Corporate ILIM ILI Total APE Basis PVNBP Basis H1 09 €m 42 69
111 535 H1 10 €m 38 46
84 376
Life & Investment Sales
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Products Pension Protection / Risk Investments Savings Distribution Bancassurance Direct Sales force Brokers / IFAs Institutions H1 09 €m 32 22 10 4 68 12 20 28 8 H1 10 €m 28 20 13 4 65 11 19 25 10 Change % (13) (9) 30
(8) (5) (11) 25 68 65 (4) Products DC pension Protection / Risk Annuities PRB / DB Distribution Consultant Brokers Direct / Cornmarket H1 09 €m 55 17 9 10 91 35 25 31 91 H1 10 €m 39 10 12 9 70 31 21 18 70 Change % (29) (41) 33 (10) (23) (11) (16) (42) (23) Retail APE Sales Corporate APE Sales
Retail & Corporate Life Sales
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Cornmarket / IPSI Corporate costs Associate H1 09 €m 3 (10) (7) 4 (3) H1 10 €m 7 (6) 1 2 3
Other Operating Activities
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INTERIM RESULTS 2010
Please contact our Investor Relations Department for any further information or visit our group website at www.irishlifepermanent.ie Contact details: Barry Walsh barry.walsh@irishlife.ie +353 1 704 2678 Orla Brannigan
+353 1 704 1345
Contact Information