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2010 FINAL RESULTS
FINAL RESULTS
2010: 2010 FINAL RESULTS Forward looking statement PAGE 2 A - - PDF document
1 PAGE FINAL RESULTS 2010: 2010 FINAL RESULTS Forward looking statement PAGE 2 A number of statements we make in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact, but will be forward-looking
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
FINAL RESULTS
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Forward looking statement
A number of statements we make in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact, but will be “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory factors and technology change. Irish Life & Permanent undertakes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Forward-looking statements made in this presentation relate only to events as of the date on which they are made.
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Index
SECTION: PAGE: Business review Review of life business 05 Review of banking business 11 Strategic agenda & Summary 18 Financial Review Group earnings 21 Funding 26 Arrears 27 Loan impairments 29 Capital 31 Outlook 33 Additional information 34
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
LIFE PERFORMANCE RECOVERY BANK MANAGING KEY CHALLENGES OVERALL RESULTS IN-LINE WITH 2009
Business Review
Life* profits recover Impairments rise in bank Overall result -€197m Operating profit 57% Business retention improving Net interest income improved** Retail deposits strong Impairments increase
STRATEGY
Making progress
* Life & Fund Management ** Excl. ELG charge
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Life & Fund Management Business
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
by strong investment inflows
Life: Recovery in Profitability
2010 New business In-force Operating profit €m 52 108 160 ▲% +2 +112 +57
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Retail
Corporate
2010
Life: Retention Improved
Retail: Returning to long term lapse assumptions Lapses v LTA Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 FY 2010 134% 123% 100% 129% 121% 2009 192% 159% 139% 147% 159%
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
Change +58% +36% +39% +21% +38%
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Life: Sales Recovery
2009 2010 2011 2012
RETAIL DECLINE STABLE RECOVERY GROWTH CORPORATE DECLINE DECLINE STABLE RECOVERY ILIM GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH Bottom of cycle
stabilised in 2010
consumer confidence and by improvement in equity markets
employment growth required to drive sales
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Life: Sales Ahead
recruitment
2010 Retail Corporate ILIM & ILI Total €m 146 137 289 572 ▲% (8) (16) +34 +6
* APE basis
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
>>> >>> >>>
PROFITABILITY: RETENTION:
Back to normal variances
SALES:
Life: Outlook
Recovery in line with expectations Sustained recovery
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Banking Business
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Bank: Funding 2010
broker distribution
downgrades
Dec 10 Dec 09
52% 48%
249% 246%
stable funding and LTD ratio to c. 60% & 200% (Dec 2010) Retail deposits Corporate deposits
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
Deposit Mix - Dec 2010
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Bank: PLAR 2011 & Funding Strategy
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Bank: Loan Book
currency basis
level of new lending
Total Loan Book* €37.6bn (Dec 2009: €38.9bn) Loan Balances
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
* Before impairment provisions
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
PTSB ROI Residential Mortgage Arrears Cases
Bank: Loan Arrears
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
and UK residential arrears
continuing to rise
12% on 2009 driven by decline in
property values
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Margins
Costs
Bank: Profitability - Margins & Costs
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Back to basics
2013 Targets
Bank: Outlook
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Strategic Agenda
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Summary
LIFE - STRONG PROFIT GROWTH BANKING - MANAGING KEY CHALLENGES STRATEGY - MAKING PROGRESS
KEVIN MURPHY: GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE
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Financial Review
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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Operating profit flat on 2009
recover
worsening economic conditions with higher funding costs and increased impairment provisions Life embedded value changes:
markets compared to large hits in 2009
financial options & guarantees and future investment returns
Group Earnings
Operating (loss) / profit
Operating (loss) Life embedded value:
(Loss) before tax
2009 €m
102 (270) (28) (196) (68) (38)
(319)
2010 €m
160 (364) 7 (197) 49 (51) (22) (16) (237)
Change %
57 (35) (1) 26
* Embedded value basis
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Life new business volumes 8%, offset by strong sales in ILIM
Life (excl. ILIM) new business margin:
Significant improvement in in-force earnings
Life Earnings
New business Total expected return Experience variances Assumption changes In-force Operating profit Taxation Profit after tax
2009 €m
51 122 (70) (1) 51 102 (12) 90
2010 €m
52 131 18 (41) 108 160 (17) 143
Change %
2 112 57 59
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
* Embedded value basis
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Experience Variances Assumption Changes Persistency Risk Expenses / Other
Life Variances & Assumptions
Experience variances
pensions business slower to recover
Corporate business due to positive income protection experience Persistency assumption changes
normalise over next 3 years
lapse rates 2009 €m
(42) 9 32 (1)
2010 €m
(62) 16 5 (41)
2009 €m
(66) 23 (27) (70)
2010 €m
(9) 35 (8) 18
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Net interest income Other income* Government guarantee
Expenses Impairment provisions Operating (loss) Taxation (Loss) after tax
2009 €m
375 41 (29) 6 393 (287) 106 (376) (270) 24 (246)
2010 €m
402 39 (110) (3) 328 (272) 56 (420) (364) 47 (317)
Net interest income ahead given mix of funding Net interest margin 86bps excluding cost
Government guarantee in line with guidance
Costs down 5% Increased loan impairment provisions due to revised assumptions for house prices and lower commercial property valuations
Bank Earnings
* incl. trading income
Change %
7 (17) (35)
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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Net Interest Margin
have negative impact on margin
2010
(indicative)
Cost of Funds Customer accounts Long-term ECB Short term Cost % 2.1 2.1 1.0 2.4 1.8 Book % 35 26 32 7 100 Asset Yields ROI mortgages UK mortgages Commercial mortgages Consumer finance Treasury Yield % 2.7 2.1 3.2 7.4 2.4 2.7 Book % 61 17 5 3 14 100
Net Interest Margin - Run-rate Margin Movement FY 2009 Retail deposit funding Wholesale funding Asset re-pricing Other FY 2010 BPS 83 (12) (3) 24 (6) 86
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Funding
December 2010 - Total €43bn
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
€5bn term debt issuance in 2010
markets from Aug 2010 Other funding secured via bi-lateral repo & ABS transactions Deposits 6% yoy
and bank downgrades Significant increased reliance on ECB due to closure of debt markets No refinancing requirement of note until 2013 Addition of €3.6bn INBS deposits
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* Source: UK Council of Mortgage Lenders >3 months, includes repossessions & receivers of rent cases
CHL Mortgage Arrears Cases
Arrears - UK Mortgages
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
Loans (CHL) portfolio
2008
peak in Q1 2009
2010
2.6% at Dec 2010
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
2010
in 2010
Dec 2010 out of total portfolio of c. 178,000
H2 2010
69% at Dec 2010
Dec 2010 PTSB ROI Residential Mortgage Arrears Cases
Arrears - ROI Residential Mortgages
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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Impairment Model
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
ROI mortgages UK mortgages ROI commercial Consumer finance Specific €m 187 25 80 5 297 Collective €m 56 2 25 40 123 Total €m 243 27 105 45 420 2010
Collective provisions: are determined on a portfolio basis generally using a statistical roll-rate model, and are used where individual loans are small and / or to recognise losses which has been incurred but not yet reported.
Impairment Charge
Total €m 154 33 99 90 376 2009
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Regulatory Capital Movement Jan 2010 Capital from existing business New business strain Net capital release Investment fluctuations / other Dividend paid VIF loan Dec 2010 before available dividend Available dividend Dec 2010 €m 685 252 (46) (13) 100 978 (243) 735
Capital - Life
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
for Irish Life Assurance of €401m (Dec 09: €413m) covered 1.75 times (Dec 09: 1.6 times)
boosted by
releases
assumptions
recapitalise bank 327 (75)
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Basel II Tier 1 capital Total required capital Total RWAs Core Tier 1 ratio Dec 09 €m 1,858 1,313 16,411 % 11.3 Dec 10 €m 1,681 1,265 15,809 % 10.6
expected defaults
11.3%)
requirement of 8%
Assessment Reviews (PCAR / PLAR) in progress with Financial Regulator
in life company would increase Core Tier 1 ratio to 12.2%
Capital - Bank
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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Earnings Outlook
DAVID MCCARTHY: GROUP FINANCE DIRECTOR
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2010 FINAL RESULTS Page 35. Group total (loss) after tax - EV basis 36. Group operating (loss) after tax - EV basis 37. Group operating EPS - EV basis 38. Group IFRS (loss) after tax 39. Group IFRS and EV basis results reconciliation 40. Bank non-interest income 41. Bank asset portfolio 42. Bank impaired loans 43. Bank non-performing loans 44. Bank regulatory capital 45. Life embedded value movement 46. Life asset quality 47. Life new business margin 48. Life operating costs 49. Life & investment sales 50. Life sales - Retail & Corporate 51. Other activities operating (loss) / profit
Additional Information
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Operating (loss) Investment fluctuations Economic assumptions Other changes Total (loss) Pre-tax €m (197) 49 (51) (38) (237) 2010 Tax €m 30
5 39 2009 Post-tax €m (182) (53) (27) (17) (279) Post-tax €m (167) 49 (47) (33) (198)
Group Total (Loss) After Tax - EV Basis
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Life assurance Banking Associate Other Operating (loss) / profit Pre-tax €m 160 (364) 9 (2) (197) 2010 Tax €m (17) 47
2009 Post-tax €m 90 (246) (2) (24) (182) Post-tax €m 143 (317) 9 (2) (167)
Group Operating (Loss) After Tax - EV Basis
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2010 FINAL RESULTS Note: “own shares” included for EPS calculation
Operating (loss) / profit Taxation (Loss) / profit after tax Average no. of shares EPS 2009 €m (196) 14 (182) 276m (66)c 2010 €m (197) 30 (167) 276m (60)c
Group Operating EPS - EV Basis
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Life assurance & investment Banking General Insurance Other Investment fluctuations Economic variance Other / Goodwill impairment Taxation (Loss) / profit after Tax 2009 €m 93 (270) (2) (26) (205) (73) (22) (10) (3) (313) 2010 €m 167 (364) 9 (2) (190) 41 (29) 21 29 (128) 167 IFRS Life Earnings Movement 2010 €m New business effect (6) Interest on insurance VIF 61 Expected profit on Inv. contracts 70 Exp var. & assumption changes 28 Expected Investment Return 14
Group Total (Loss) After Tax - IFRS Basis
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Embedded Value basis Investment business
Own shares adjustment VIF loan Other / Tax IFRS (Statutory) basis S’Holders Equity €m 2,045 (635) 140 63
(14) 1,616 Total (Loss) / Profit after Tax €m (198) 28 (3) (9) 13 17 24 (128) 2010
IFRS / EV Reconciliation
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2010 FINAL RESULTS Note: Bancassurance Embedded Value operating profit €8m [2009: €14m] included in life assurance
Fees & Comms (rec’d) Fees & Comms (payable) Trading income Investment return 2009 €m 54 (10) 44 (3) 6 47 2010 €m 54 (12) 42 (3) (3) 36
Bank Non-Interest Income
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Category Sovereign Bonds AAA A BAA/BA/B Bank FRNs / Corporate Bonds AA A BAA/BA/B & lower RMBS AAA AA / A
Sovereign Bonds (61%), €1.2bn Bank FRNs (27%) and €0.6bn Prime RMBS (12%)
denominated and there is zero US exposure in balance
€bn 1.0 0.1 1.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2
Asset Portfolio December 2010
% 35 3 62 17 33 50 67 33
Bank Asset Portfolio
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Residential mortgages
Commercial mortgages Consumer finance Balances €m 736 105 217 160 1,218 Total Loans % 2.7 1.3 9.1 10.5 3.2 June 2010 Balances €m 415 75 171 167 828 Total Loans % 1.5 1.0 7.2 9.5 2.1 December 2009
Impaired Loans
Impaired loans: are loans where there is objective evidence that an impairment loss had occurred, including cash-flow difficulties,
Balances €m 992 111 280 155 1,538 Total Loans % 3.8 1.5 11.9 11.3 4.1 December 2010
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Residential mortgages
Commercial mortgages Consumer finance Balances €m 1,858 265 378 195 2,696 Total Loans % 6.9 3.3 16.2 12.8 7.0 June 2010 Balances €m 1,342 258 307 206 2,113 Total Loans % 4.9 3.4 12.9 11.8 5.4 December 2009
Non-Performing Loans
Balances €m 2,417 258 471 184 3,330 Total Loans % 9.2 3.4 20.1 13.4 8.9 December 2010
Non-performing loans: are impaired loans and loans where repayments are over 90 days in arrears
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Basel II Capital Available capital Tier 1 Tier 2 Total capital Deductions* Total available capital (Tier 1) Required capital Excess own funds Total RWAs RAR (all Core Tier 1) Dec 09 €bn 3.9 1.2 5.1 (3.3) 1.8 1.3 0.5 16.4 % 11.3 Dec 10 €bn 3.8 1.2 5.0 (3.3) 1.7 1.3 0.4 15.8 % 10.6
Bank Regulatory Capital
* Life company investment and other regulatory adjustments
requirement of 8%
expected defaults
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Opening 1 Jan 2010 Operating profit Investment fluctuations Economic assumptions VIF loan Capital & other movements Closing 31 Dec 2010 Net Worth €m 566 252 21 (48) 100 (13) 878 VIF €m 1,076 (109) 28 1 (117) (11) 868 Required Capital €m 634 614 Total €m 1,642 143 49 (47) (17) (24) 1,746
Life: Embedded Value Movement
* All movements net of tax
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Rating AAA AA A / BAA €m 1,366 171 234 1,771 % 77 10 13 100 Non-linked Debt Securities
securities of appropriate duration
Insurance & investment assets Deposits Property Equity Debt securities / other Subordinated debt €m 697 234 30 133 1,094 (216) 878 % 64 21 3 12 100 Shareholders’ Net Worth
capital for property funds
in 2007
Life Asset Quality
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
New Business Contribution Life ILIM Margin - APE Life ILIM Margin – PVNBP* Life ILIM 2009 €m 40 11
%
11.4 5.9 % 1.6 0.6 2010 €m 37 15
%
11.5 6.1 % 1.6 0.6 APE Sales 2010 2009 €m €m Life 320 348 ILIM 252 191 PVNBP* Sales 2010 2009 €m €m Life 2,288 2,398 ILIM 2,520 1,908
* Present value of new business premiums
Life New Business Margin
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Retail & Corporate ILIM Other IFRS adjustment 2010 €m 165 14 10 189 (9) 180 2009 €m 169 14 7 190 1 191
Life Operating Costs
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Recurring Premium Single Premium 2009 €m 736 471 1,908 252 3,367 337 3,367 2010 €m 689 525 2,520 371 4,105 410 4,105 Retail Corporate ILIM ILI Total APE Basis PVNBP Basis 2009 €m 85 117
202 939 2010 €m 78 84
162 703
Life & Investment Sales
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Products Pension Protection / Risk Investments Savings Distribution Bancassurance Direct Sales force Brokers / IFAs Institutions 2009 €m 82 43 25 9 159 29 42 68 20 2010 €m 68 40 30 8 146 29 38 59 20 Change % (17) (7) 20 (11) (8)
(13)
146 (8) Products DC pension Protection / Risk Annuities PRB / DB Distribution Consultant Brokers Direct / Cornmarket 2009 €m 98 25 18 23 164 64 42 58 164 2010 €m 76 14 24 23 137 64 35 38 137 Change % (22) (44) 33
(34) (16) Retail APE Sales Corporate APE Sales
Retail & Corporate Life Sales
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Cornmarket / IPSI Corporate costs Associate 2009 €m 4 (30) (26) (2) (28) 2010 €m 14 (16) (2) 9 7
Other Operating Activities
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2010 FINAL RESULTS
Please contact our Investor Relations Department for any further information or visit our group website at www.irishlifepermanent.ie Contact details: Barry Walsh barry.walsh@irishlife.ie +353 1 704 2678 Orla Brannigan
+353 1 704 1345
Contact Information