2009 Earnings Presentation
February 23, 2010
2009 Earnings Presentation February 23, 2010 Safe Harbor Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2009 Earnings Presentation February 23, 2010 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources', PNM's, or TNMP's (collectively,
February 23, 2010
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources', PNM's, or TNMP's (collectively, the "Companies") expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and the Companies assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, the Companies caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. The Companies' business, financial condition, cash flow and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These factors include conditions affecting the Company’s ability to access the financial markets and negotiate new credit facilities for those expiring in 2011 and 2012, or Optim Energy’s access to additional debt financing following the utilization of its existing credit facility, including actions by ratings agencies affecting the Company’s credit ratings; the recession, its consequent extreme disruption in the credit markets, and its impacts on the electricity usage of the Company’s customers; state and federal regulatory and legislative decisions and actions, including appeals of prior regulatory proceedings, and including provisions relating to climate change, reduction of green house gases, coal combustion byproducts, and other power plant emissions; the ability of PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the N.M. Public Regulation Commission, including the resource diversity requirement, within the specified cost parameters, and the Company’s ability to obtain federal and/or state funding and incentives for the development of alternative or renewable energy; the ability of PNM to successfully utilize a future test year in a rate filing with the NMPRC, including PNM’s ability to accurately forecast operating and capital expenditures and withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors; the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, the San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners Plant, and Optim Energy generating units, and transmission systems; the risk that Optim Energy desires to expand its generation capacity but is unable to identify and implement profitable acquisitions or that PNM Resources and ECJV will not agree to make additional capital contributions to Optim Energy; the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries or Optim Energy due to regulatory, statutory
protocols; changes in the cost of power acquired by First Choice Power; collections experience; insurance coverage available for claims made in litigation; fluctuations in interest rates; weather; water supply; changes in fuel costs; availability of fuel supplies; uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs of decommissioning power plants owned or partially owned by PNM and Optim Energy and coal mines supplying certain PNM power plants, as well as the ability to recover decommissioning costs through charges to customers; the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its Emergency FPPAC will not be approved by the NMPRC; the risk that PNM may not be able to renew rights-of-way on Native American lands or that the costs of rights-of-way are not allowed to be recovered through rates charged to customers; the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions; seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power; the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage; variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices; volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets; uncertainty regarding the ongoing validity of government programs for emission allowances; the risk that the resolution of the bankruptcy of the Lyondell Chemical Company results in significant adverse impacts on the operations of the Altura Cogen facility and Optim Energy; changes in the competitive environment in the electric industry; the risk that the Company and Optim Energy may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental requirements including possible future requirements to address concerns about global climate change, and the resultant impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM and Optim Energy have interests; the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns; uncertainty surrounding the status of PNM’s participation in jointly-owned projects resulting from the scheduled expiration of the operational documents for the projects beginning in 2015 and potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects; the outcome of legal proceedings; changes in applicable accounting principles, and the performance of state, regional, and national economies. PNM Resources (“the Company”) uses ongoing earnings and ongoing earnings per diluted share (or ongoing diluted earnings per share) and EBITDA (earnings before interest charges, income taxes, depreciation and amortization) and ongoing EBITDA to evaluate the operations of the Company and to establish goals for management and employees. While the Company believes these financial measures are appropriate and useful for investors, they are not measures presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S. (GAAP). The Company does not intend for these measures, or any piece of these measures, to represent any financial measure as defined by GAAP. Furthermore, the Company’s calculations of these measures as presented may or may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. Non-GAAP Financial Measures
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Chairman and CEO
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Completed sale of PNM Gas and used proceeds to reduce debt Moved merchant plants into PNM rate base Settled two utility rate cases Made significant strides in restoring First Choice Power’s earnings potential Positioned Optim Energy to focus on cash conservation Implemented CEO transition plan Exceeded earnings expectations 2009 vs. 2008
Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2008
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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PNM rates implemented July 1; TNMP rates implemented Sept. 1
2009 financial performance exceeded expectations
Exceeded 2009 ongoing EBITDA target range
Reduced 5-year capital spending plan by $28M during 2009 for a total reduction of $381M Utility O&M costs, excluding pension and benefits, increased 1% in 2009 vs. 2008
Achieved performance in top quartile for the year
Weighted-average baseload EAF: 85.8% in 2009 vs. 78.7% in 2008
S&P revised its ratings outlook to “stable"
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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President and COO
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Q2 2010: Filing on track for April 2011 implementation Building consensus for the regulatory framework with key parties Addressing multiple topics, including combining PNM southern and northern rate structures
Q4 2010: Filing with FERC to increase firm transmission rates
Q2 2010: Transmission cost-of-service (administrative filing) Q3 2010: General rate case
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Filed Jan. 26 ~80MW of solar, with first phase installed Q1 2011 (pending PRC approval)
Passed by House and Senate and awaits governor’s signature Developers of renewable facilities located on customer sites are not utilities Limits facilities in size and location Provides for recovery of lost revenue
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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PNM TNMP Q1
Q2
0.7% Q3
0.6% Q4 2.2%
2009
2010E 0.0% 0.2% 2010E(1) 1.3% 0.2%
(1) Excluding impact of energy efficiency programs
2009 vs. 2008
(1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2009
TX
NM U.S.
The recession’s impact on PNM and TNMP appears to be waning, but growth will be flat in 2010 reflecting energy efficiency programs
Total Retail Energy Sales
(weather-normalized and leap-year adjusted)
Unemployment Rate
(1)
TX NM U.S. 8.3% 8.3% 10.0%
PNM 0.8% TNMP 0.7% 499,034 2009 Avg. Retail Customer Count 2009 vs. 2008 230,937
Utility Customer Growth
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Expect 2010 margins to compress compared with 2009 Reverse customer/volume decline; concentrate on profitable growth Develop additional products and services Continue to manage and reduce bad debt expense
Focus on cash flow Maintain operational excellence and strong commercial availability to capitalize on market’s return Continue to optimize gross margin through asset-backed hedging and plant operations Prepare for ERCOT nodal market go-live
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Executive Vice President & CFO
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Ongoing EPS up $0.84 from $0.10 in 2008 to $0.94 in 2009 Cash earnings at $439M, up substantially from last year S&P revised its ratings outlook to “stable”
2008 2009 $0.10
First Choice Power
$0.12 $0.31
PNM Electric
$0.72
Corp/ Other
$0.02
TNMP
$(0.18)
Optim Energy
$0.94
PNM Gas
(sold 1/09)
$(0.15)
2009 EPS
(Ongoing)
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Regulated $0.66 - $0.72 Unregulated $0.05 - $0.17 Corp/Other $(0.18) - $(0.16)
Regulated Business (PNM & TNMP)
First Choice Power
Unregulated Business Optim Energy
(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2009 2010E
$0.63 $0.66 – $0.72
Key Performance Drivers EPS Estimate Rate Relief $0.26 Outage Costs $(0.06) - $(0.05) Interest Expense $(0.04) - $(0.03) Pension and Retiree Medical Costs $(0.05) - $(0.04) Depreciation $(0.03) - $(0.02)
Electric Utilities - PNM and TNMP
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2009 2010E
First Choice Power
(In millions)
Optim Energy(1) (100%)
(In millions)
(Ongoing)
Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Decreased margins $(50) -$(44) Lower O&M cost $1 - 3 Lower bad debt expense $5 - 7
$25 - $35 $69
2009 2010E Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Operating expenses $(2) - $2 Gas prices/Heat rates $(2) - $8
$60 - $70 $64
(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy, gains and
losses of Optim Energy are equally distributed to the owners.
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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$419 $413 $136 $133 $339 $244 $268 $369 $421
$83 $71
2009E - 2013E 2010E - 2014E
Renewables Other TNMP Nuclear Fuel PNM Generation PNM T&D
$1,386
Comparison of 5-year capital spending plans
(In millions)
$1,242 $1,510
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2009 2010E
$439
Utility Earnings
$(90)-$(80)
Taxes
$5-$10
FCP Earnings
$(30)-$(22)
Pension Contribution
$290-$315
PNM Gas
(sold 1/09)
$(20) $(9)
2008
$196(1)
2010 Cash Earnings
(In millions)
(1) Excludes pre-payment of $71M for Palo Verde toll
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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$193
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PNM PNMR TNMP $50
Financing Revolving credit facilities $1,003 Local lines of credit 10 Total Capacity $1,013 Outstanding Balance 12/31/10 Short-term debt $250 - 275 Lines of credit 103 - 123 Availability as of 12/31/10 $660 - 615
Long-term Debt Maturities(1)
(In millions)
Projected 12/31/10 Liquidity
(1) Excludes $9.3 million that is due in installments through 2013
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Q4 2008 Q4 2009
PNM Electric TNMP
Q4 Key Performance Drivers EPS Rate increase (partial year) $0.03 Weather-normalized load $0.01 Outage costs $0.01 Pension income $(0.01) Weather $0.01
$0.04 $(0.04) Q4 2008 Q4 2009
Q4 Key Performance Drivers EPS Increased interest expense $(0.02) Rate increase $0.01 Pension income and other costs $(0.02)
$0.03 $0.06
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FY 2008 FY 2009
PNM Electric TNMP
2009 Key Performance Drivers EPS Rate relief $0.26 Fuel & purchased power prices $0.13 Weather-normalized load $(0.07) Dilution $(0.05) Pension income $(0.04) Outage costs $0.05
$0.50 $0.19 FY 2008 FY 2009
2009 Key Performance Drivers EPS Weather $(0.01) Increased interest expense $(0.07) Rate increase $0.02 Pension income and other costs $(0.07) Dilution $(0.01)
$0.13 $0.28
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Q4 2008 Q4 2009
First Choice Power
(In millions)
Optim Energy(1) (100%)
(In millions)
Q4 Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Lower Bad Debt Expense $21.3 Lower Purchase Power Costs $2.9 Increased O&M $(5.8) Other ($0.5)
$5.8 $(12.1) Q4 2008 Q4 2009
Q4 Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Increased O&M $(2.3) Hedge positions $12.0
$9.8 $(0.1)
(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy, gains and
losses of Optim Energy are equally distributed to the owners.
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2008 2009
First Choice Power
(In millions)
Optim Energy(1) (100%)
(In millions)
2009 Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Cedar Bayou 4 addition $5.1 Lower Average Energy Prices $(8.8) Hedge Positions $22.0 Increased O&M $(4.3) 2009 Key Performance Drivers EBITDA Lower Purchase Power Prices $105.1 Lower Bad Debt Expense $10.7 Increased O&M ($15.7) Other ($2.1)
$68.5 ($29.5)
2008 2009
$48.9 $63.8
(1) PNM Resources has 50% ownership interest in Optim Energy, gains and
losses of Optim Energy are equally distributed to the owners.
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive
Ongoing EPS 2009 2010E Regulated Operations Electric (PNM & TNMP) $0.63 $0.66 - $0.72 PNM Gas 0.08 0.00 Sub-total $0.71 $0.66 - $0.72 Unregulated Operations First Choice Power 0.44 0.15 - 0.22 Optim Energy (PNMR Share - 50%) (0.01) (0.10) - (0.05) Sub-total $0.43 $0.05 - $0.17 Corp/Other (primarly financing) (0.20) (0.18) - (0.16) Total EPS $0.94 $0.60 - $0.72
(1)
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(1) Business segment guidance ranges are not additive
Ongoing EBITDA
(In millions)
2009 2010E Consolidated PNMR (1) $408 $360 - $380 Regulated Operations PNM $236 $240 - $245 TNMP $85 $95 - $97 Unregulated Operations First Choice Power $69 $25 - $35 Optim Energy (100%) $64 $60 - $70
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2009 2010 Actual Assumptions
Retail load growth (1.7%) 0.0% Retail load growth (excludes Energy Efficiency) N/A 1.3% Average cost coal generation ($/MWh) $23.99 ~$24.90 Average gas price (Permian in $/MMBtu) $3.40 ~$5.75 Average power price (PV On-Peak $/MWh) $34.70 ~$54.00 Load sensitivity (margin impact of +/- 1% change in load) N/A +/- $5M
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council
2010 & 2011 Outage Schedule
87.5% 86.9% 78.9% 88.2% 86.8% 89.5% 84.8% 84.4% 84.9%
San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
2009A 2010E 2011E
Unit Duration (days) Time Period 4 49 Q1 2010 3 49 Q1/Q2 2010 1 49 Q1 2011 2 11 Q2 2011 4 11 Q4 2011 4 88 Q1/Q2 2010 4 10 Q4 2011 5 18 Q2 2011 1 63 Q1/Q2 2010 3 63 Q4 2010 1 34 Q4 2011 2 34 Q2 2011 San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
Coal: 88%*…………………………………………………………………… Nuclear: 92%*……………………..
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2009 2010 Actual Assumptions
Retail load growth (weather normalized) (-0.3%) 0.2% CTC revenue $16.4 M $15.7 M Load sensitivity (margin impact of +/- 1% change in load) N/A +/- $1.7M
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2009 2010 Actual Assumptions
Residential (year-end) 186,565 +5% residential Gross margin (excluding mark-to-market of
economic hedges; $6M pre-tax loss in 2009)
$176M $126M - $136M Bad debt expense (% of revenue) 7.8% 7.0% O&M expenses (excl bad debt) $68M $65 - $67
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2009 2010 Actual Assumptions
Average annual NYMEX gas price ($/MMBtu) $4.04 (settled) ~$5.50 - 6.50 ERCOT North RTC heat rate 7.6 ~7.0 ERCOT Houston RTC heat rate 8.1 ~7.5
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2010 Outage Schedule
Duration (days) Time Period 35 Q1/Q2 2010 30 Q1 2010 30 Q2 2010 49 Q4 2010 No planned outages Twin Oaks Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4
91.8% 96.6% 96.4% 89.5% 94.6% 90.5%
Twin Oaks Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4
2009A 2010E
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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2010 Guidance Q4 2009 2009 Range Ongoing EBITDA (50% PNMR Share) 4.9 $ 31.9 $ $30 - $35 Ongoing EBITDA (100%) 9.8 $ 63.8 $ $60 - $70 Depreciation (11.4) (37.2) (44) Contract Amortization (5.1) (11.3) (21) Interest (4.2) (13.8) (21) - (18) Margin tax 0.5 0.2 (0.6) Ongoing Net Earnings (100% Optim Energy) (10.4) $ 1.7 $ $(26.6) - $(13.6) Ongoing Net Earnings (50% PNMR Share) (5.2) 0.8 (13.3) - (6.8) Amortization of basis difference in Optim Energy (0.3) (1.7) (2.7) PNMR ongoing net earnings, before tax (5.5) $ (0.9) $ $(16.0) - $(9.5) PNMR Ongoing EPS (0.04) $ (0.01) $ $(0.10) - $(0.05) Reconciliation to PNMR Equity in GAAP net earnings of Optim Energy: Ongoing Net Earnings (100% Optim Energy) (10.4) $ 1.7 $ CAIR / Emission Allowance Writeoff (51.6) (51.6) Losses on forward mark on economic hedges 0.3 (6.9) GAAP Net Earnings (100% Optim Energy) (61.7) $ (56.8) $ GAAP Net Earnings (50% PNMR Share) (30.8) $ (28.4) $ Amortization of basis difference in Optim Energy (0.3) (1.7) PNMR Equity in GAAP net earnings of Optim Energy (31.1) $ (30.1) $ Optim Energy Reconciliation of EBITDA to Ongoing Earnings (In millions)
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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(1) Twin Oaks Contract Amortization (2) Altura Cogen Contract Amortization (3) Emission Allowance Amortization (1)+(2)+(3) * 50% PNMR's 50 percent share of Optim Energy Amortizations PNMR's Basis in Amortizations PNMR Net Earnings Impact 2010 2.7 $ (16.3) $ (7.2) $ (10.4) $ (2.7) $ (13.1) $ 2011
(4.7) (9.7) * (9.7) 2012
(3.6) (6.5) * (6.5) 2013
(3.6) (6.2) * (6.2) 2014
(3.3) (5.8) * (5.8) 2015 and beyond
(37.1) (40.0) * (40.0) Total 2.7 $ (100.4) $ (59.5) $ (78.6) $ (2.7) $ (81.3) $ (In millions)
Future amortization for out of market contracts, emission allowances, and the impact on PNMR earnings is as follows:
In the table presented above, emission allowance amortization is forecasted based on estimated usage and sales. Since actual usage, and sales will vary from this assumption, future year’s amortization expense may be different than presented.
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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$21 $22 $17 $8 $11 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5-Year Budgeted Capital Expenditures (In millions)
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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$260 $252 $246 $243 $240 $196 $48 $25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Core Renewables $285 $448 $294 $243 $240 5-Year Budgeted Capital Expenditures (In millions)
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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(1) Including bad debt expense and settlement of legal proceedings (2) Taxes on the proceeds from the PNM Gas sale are included in net cash flows from operating activities while the gross proceeds from the sale are reflected in
investing activities. As a result, the taxes are added back to arrive at cash earnings.
(3) Optim Energy cash earnings defined as net cash flows from operating activities less changes in certain current assets & liabilities
2009 2010E
(In millions)
Net cash flows from operating activities 88 $ $300 - $320 +/- adjustments in arriving at cash earnings Changes in certain current assets & liabilities (1) 143 (70) - (80) Taxes on PNM Gas sale proceeds (2) 126
27 30 Payments received from Palo Verde firm-sales contracts 31 30 PNMR share of Optim Energy cash earnings (3) 24 20 - 25 Total Cash Earnings 439 $ $290 - $315
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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(1) Includes First Choice Power
PNM Resources (1) PNM Separate TNMP Separate PNM Resources Consolidated (In millions) Financing Revolving credit facility $ 600 $ 400 $ 75 $ 1,075 Local lines of credit 5 5
Total Capacity $ 605 $ 405 $ 75 $ 1,085 Total short-term debt & LOC $ 141 $ 140 $ 2 $ 283 Remaining availability 464 265 73 802 Invested cash 10 10 Available Liquidity as of 12/31/09 $ 474 $ 265 $ 73 $ 812 Outstanding Balances as of 12/31/09
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Dec 31, Dec 31,
2008 2009
(In millions)
Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion)
PNM 1,056 $ 1,056 $ TNMP 168 310 PNMR 361 201 Consolidated 1,585 $ 1,567 $
Total Debt (incl. short-term)
PNM 1,396 $ 1,174 $ TNMP* 318 310 PNMR 615 281 Consolidated 2,329 $ 1,765 $
* Excludes debt from affiliate
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Senior Unsecured Debt
S&P PNM Resources BB- PNM BB+ Outlook: Stable Moody’s PNM Resources Ba2 PNM Baa3 Outlook: Negative Fitch PNM Resources BB PNM BB+ Outlook: Stable
TNMP First Mortgage Bonds
S&P BBB- Outlook: Stable Moody's Baa2 Outlook: Negative Fitch BBB Outlook: Stable
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Name District Term Ends Party Jason Marks (1) District 1 2012 Democrat David King (1) Chairman District 2 2010 Republican Jerome Block Vice Chair District 3 2012 Democrat Carol K. Sloan District 4 2010 Democrat Sandy Jones (2) District 5 2010 Democrat
(1) Two-term limit reached (2) Not seeking re-election
NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas
PRC district data 2003. PNM Service Area based on existing primary distribution infrastructure. Map created by PNM Innovative Software Solutions, July 2009.
February 23, 2010: Preliminary & Unaudited
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Test Period Ended Rate Base Allowed Equity Ratio ROE Revenue Requirement PNM March 31, 2008 $1.5B 50% 10.5% Implied 10.25% 10.0% $736.3M TNMP March 31, 2008 $430M 40% $161.0M PNM South (1) September 30, 2004 $70M 45% Rates frozen until 12/31/2010
(1) Formerly known as TNMP – New Mexico